French Elections 2017

Paul the Wolf said:
Latest ifop poll today

Macron 24%
Le Pen 22.5%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélenchon 18.5%
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I tried to get up to date information about how many voters are still undecided yet but I failed. Have you heard or read anything? About 2-3 weeks back I heard roughly 30% were undecided.
 
Macron does seem to be edging up to 24-25 again, which is a positive. Should hopefully manage at this point. There've been pretty much no polls putting him below second for a good while.
 
Nate Silver's mentioned that it's a bit worrying that polls have been so consistent, saying it may be a sign that pollsters are herding. Gonna make me worried about the final result until it's in, anyway.
 
Nate is just used to less ones because he mostly uses state wide ones in the US, which are, due to them being about less voting populace, more swinging.

Also, way more contestants. Remember, and only the second round really counts and these have been very clear about Le Pens not winning.
 
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Paul the Wolf said:
Latest ifop poll today

Macron 24%
Le Pen 22.5%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélenchon 18.5%
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I don't follow French politics. Le Pen gets a lot of international coverage so I know her platform but can someone give me a quick summary of what the other three stand for. Just a sentence or two would be appreciated :)
 
I understand nothing about polls but I know that my compatriots are lying, they know exactly who they are going to vote for. And Le Pen will lead the first round.
 
settembrini said:
I don't follow French politics. Le Pen gets a lot of international coverage so I know her platform but can someone give me a quick summary of what the other three stand for. Just a sentence or two would be appreciated :)
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Fillon: conservative; centre-right; family values; law and order(-ish); liberal economic policy

Mélenchon: left-wing socialist (in the real meaning of the term and not as equivalent for social democratic positions) lunatic. He talks a lot about nationalization of key industries and strong control over most economic matters. His key talking point is a constitutional reform ("6th republic"), that changes the political system. He is the European version of Hugo Chavez.

Macron: centrist liberal. Somewhere around 3rd-way social democrats. He puts a lot of emphasis on centrist economic reforms that create growth, while taking solid financing into account.
 
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PedroMendez said:
Mélenchon: left-wing socialist (in the real meaning of the term and not as equivalent for social democratic positions) lunatic. He talks a lot more about nationalization of key industries and strong control over most economic matters. His key talking point is a constitutional reform ("6th republic"), that changes the political system. He is the European version of Hugo Chavez.
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His main reform is to get rid of the executive presidency. If he does that, he can't be Chavez even if he tries.
 
Shooting in Paris. Apparently, two dead (a policeman and the shooter) and one injured (another policeman).
 
settembrini said:
I don't follow French politics. Le Pen gets a lot of international coverage so I know her platform but can someone give me a quick summary of what the other three stand for. Just a sentence or two would be appreciated :)
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Mélenchon, Communist


Fillon, Theif


Le Pen, Fascist


Macron, Granny Shagger
 
Interesting map of where candidates have the most support



And as a very distilled take on the earlier question of summing up the candidates

 
Hopefully Macron will get into the 2nd round and finish above Le Pen. I know he's been ahead of Le Pen in the polls for the first round, but its well within the margin of error.

Worst case scenario will be Macron having a bad performance which would result in the top 2 being Kremlin stooges.
 
First round has certainly become more interesting than expected. Don't think the 2nd round will be TOO exciting as I still expect le Pen to get there and lose by quite a margin but very excited for tomorrow.
 
The Mélenchon Economy
Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s senior economic advisor explains his proposals to grow the economy and carry out an ecological transition.

https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/the-melenchon-economy/

What are the pillars of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s economic program?
First, there is an economic reboot centered on the environment. We will plan a €100 billion investment program to stimulate the economy, financed by borrowing. The other component is a redistribution policy that will reform pensions, establish what we call an integrated social security, and redistribute income in favor of lower- and medium-income households.

That will proceed via tax reform for both individuals and businesses. We are going to cut business tax but at the same time increase taxation on the profits that the big corporations do not reinvest. And also increase taxation on wealth. Our policy is aimed at rebooting investment, wages and employment, while combatting unearned income.

Then there will also be a program to fight poverty, with minimum benefits raised to the poverty threshold, meaning €1,000 a month.
...
What impact will the confrontation with the EU have on your calculations?
Clearly the EU treaties referring to the budget will not be applied. We will carry out the policy we were elected to carry out. We will tell our European partners that these texts are so absurd that no one manages to apply them. For example, Germany does not stick to the 60 percent indebtedness limit. Since they do not work, we propose their renegotiation, at the same time proposing instruments necessary to make the single currency work. So that supposes fiscal harmonization, social harmonization, a significant EU-wide budget, or failing that, room for maneuver in national budgets. And also a European-level protectionism.
...
And, finally, what about socializing the economy — traditional Marxist aspirations for workers’ to control the means of production. Is this something that concerns you?
The program we are putting in place is not a Marxist one. The pendulum has swung so far to the Right in economic matters today that our program consists only of bringing it back a bit towards the middle. But, in the case of the cooperatives I mentioned earlier, we have plans in place to ensure worker control when the question of closure is posed. Beyond that, it is clear that public power in strategic enterprises will be increased, and if we consider that these authorities are the expression of the popular will, then you could say there is an element of popular control over production.

Outside of control over the big strategic enterprises necessary for ecological planning, though, we are favorable to a mixed economy in which small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are a dynamic force. We will take measures favorable to SMEs and indeed the smallest businesses, especially by way of the 8 percent decrease in business tax.
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Paul the Wolf said:
Last ifop poll before 1st round from today

Macron 24.5%
Le Pen 22.5%
Fillon 19.5%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Hamon 7%
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While I really want this to become true - Macron leading, making it into the 2nd round - I won't believe it until I see the results tonight.
 
K2K said:
Why do they call him president?

Is this recent?
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Yes it is recent. AFAIK, 'president' is a life-time title; it doesn't matter whether you're currently in office or have left it; have read articles about 'President Clinton' or 'President Bush' long after their terms were up.

Of course I'm happy to stand corrected by Caf residents from the US.
 
Crossie said:
Yes it is recent. AFAIK, 'president' is a life-time title; it doesn't matter whether you're currently in office or have left it; have read articles about President Clinton or President Bush long after their terms were up.

Of course I'm happy to stand corrected by Caf residents from the US.
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Makes sense.

Thanks for the reply. Just wanted to see whether it was a recent quote .
 
I was reading an article about Donzy, a town in Borgogne which seems to always get right the election results. The neighbours said they thought that there was more vote for Le Pen than the polls considered.
A silly question, what for is the second round ? Does it occur in all cases? Do the same candidates participate?
 
carvajal said:
I was reading an article about Donzy, a town in Borgogne which seems to always get right the election results. The neighbours said they thought that there was more vote for Le Pen than the polls considered.
A silly question, what for is the second round ? Does it occur in all cases? Do the same candidates participate?
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The first two candidates go to the second round.
 
carvajal said:
I was reading an article about Donzy, a town in Borgogne which seems to always get right the election results. The neighbours said they thought that there was more vote for Le Pen than the polls considered.
A silly question, what for is the second round ? Does it occur in all cases? Do the same candidates participate?
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If anyone gets >50% in the 1st round, then there is no second round.
 
carvajal said:
Then all governments have a majority. There are never coalition governments
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It's the presidentials not the legislative elections. We vote in June for the legislative elections.
 
If Le Pen wins, is she allowed to just go ahead with Frexit or do they hold a referendum? :nervous:
 
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