Interestingly Melenchon polling quite well against Le Pen.
French Elections 2017
- Thread starter Cheesy
- Start date
Interestingly Melenchon polling quite well against Le Pen.
Isn't Macron a former minister of economy in Hollande's cabinet and hasn't Hollande's rating been in a toilet for a while now?
That is correct. Still by French standards of politics he somewhat of a newcomer. I don’t think that people associate him closely with the government of Hollande. He has a fairly different profile and message as well. Not being deeply entrenched (by French standards) in one of the political blocks is both advantage and risk.
Something about French police not rounding up thousands of them to be killed by Nazis, so past presidents had nothing to apologise for.
Why by french standards?
Because usually people who worked for 5 years in government as (deputy) secretary-general and minister are not perceived to be political newcomer/outsider.
So the fact that it's their only 4 years in politics doesn't count? To compare who is currently considered a newcomer in your country?
Edit: I'm not arguing with you or anything, just trying to see the potential cultural differences.
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She was saying that the police rounded them up under the instructions of the Vichy government who themselves were under instructions from the Nazis whereas she considers the real french government was with de Gaulle in London and thus not responsible for what happened. Some presidents have apologised, some have not.
Mélenchon hates Le Pen so theoretically his supporters should support the opposing candidate against Le Pen should she and not he reach the second round
Le Pen losing ground in the polls down to 22 or 22.5%, Fillon and Mélenchon closing up, Macron in the lead. Le Pen to lose against all 3 in the second round, if she even gets there...
Polls... remember Hillary's blue wall?
Everything being so close worries me.
Polls... remember Hillary's blue wall?
Polls haven't done too well, but the first round is so close that it's possible that any two of the top four could make the final round with the margin for error.
But in the second round Le Pen should be easily beaten by all of the other three with a big margin for error.
Only concern I have is if there are too many abstentions
Le Pen should lose fine but some polls do have it getting very close between her and Fillon.
How's Melenchon regarded, out of interest? Is he just a Corbyn-style socialist type politician, or is he much more hard left?
Still quite heavy in Fillon's favour.
Mélenchon is much harder left , more Stalin than Corbyn
Hamon looks far preferable to Melenchon, but any candidate for the PS this time round was doomed and Melenchon has the firebrand style perfected. Fillon's continued support is fascinating.
Hamon is an idiot and his program is inexistant. There is nothing preferable about him.
Melenchon would attempt to lead France out of the EU, so Hamon's already far preferable.
I have read that the conservative "family value" group "Sens Commun" is backing him heavily and they might be fairly influential.
Melenchon wouldn't do anything since he "plans" to not be president. His plan is to invoke a Constituent assembly, leave the office and let them create the VI republic, Melenchon has no serious program because he doesn't intend to do anything.
Could partly just be that there's a solid base of conservative types who are ultimately going to vote for his party no matter what. He's only beating Le Pen in the run-offs (and even his support there has declined) so it could just be that base support standing sort of strong in the primaries.
I just get the weirdest feeling that he'll somehow get to the second round. Only one poll but just out today
More than possible that Macron will underperform his polling due to general lack of organisational strength and that there are shy Fillon voters.
More than possible that Macron will underperform his polling due to general lack of organisational strength and that there are shy Fillon voters.
Poll from ifop half an hour ago:
Macron 23% (+0.5)
Le Pen 22.5% (-0.5)
Fillon 19.5% (+0.5)
Mélenchon 19.5% (+0.5)
Going to be close.
This time next week we'll know the final 2
And then Putin's real fun begins
It would be nothing short of amazing if Mélenchon could win this.
Feck that, the guy wants Frexit.
It looks like collapsing anyway. Brexit was the beginning of the end.
BothOf the UK or the EU? I know which one looks more likely at the moment
Both
Doubt Mélenchon will make the final 2 and doubt Le Pen will beat any of the three.
with the controversy that Fillon's had to deal with I'm surprised he's still in double digits.
I'd be worried if he made it through as he could be too easy to knock off, ala HRC, thereby opening it up for a radical.
I'd be worried if he made it through as he could be too easy to knock off, ala HRC, thereby opening it up for a radical.
I'd be content to see anyone other than Le Pen win.
Well if Nigel Farage and Donald Trump said it, then it must be true..
Yes, I'd be even more delighted if she didn't make the final 2
It's more to do extremist political movements, both far right and far left, on the rise across significant member states. It seems like a matter of time.
John Oliver's take on it...
Come on France, don't blow it like we did.
Where that idea comes from? We are among the most pessimistic people on earth and we tend to think that the grass is always greener abroad.
A lot of it here is from folks who have never left the states. I'd say the Brits idea comes from centuries of rivalry.
I loved France the few times I've visited.
A very humid and desperate writers room in New York.