Watch them concede to us.
Anywho I am stepping away from the cafe for a while so see y'all next season. Good luck everyone and happy new year!
Fantasy Premier League 2024/25
- Thread starter Samid
- Start date
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik and Imran discuss a horrific month of December and a depressing FOUR defeats in a row - the latest coming against Wolves and Newcastle.
They discuss how much blame is on Ruben Amorim and rank our squad against other Premier League teams.
Do we have any chance of avoiding defeat at Anfield?
Anywho I am stepping away from the cafe for a while so see y'all next season. Good luck everyone and happy new year!
I'd assumed he wasn't being serious
Yep, I'm not going to post until next year now.
Sanchez
Gabriel Timber Lewis
Salah(C) Palmer Son Semenyo
Isak Jackson Solanke
Fabianski Hall Greaves Rogers
Already locked for next gameweek. So boring. FA Cup after that, seems such a long time until anything interesting will happen now for me and FPL.
Double midfield switch at that point, Son and Semenyo out for whoever and whoever. 2 of Gordon, Bruno or Mbeumo unless a Liverpool option convinces that they're not a minutes risk. Luis Diaz the obvious most likely one right now, suppose it could be Jota as an outside bet.
Then it's a case of seeing if I want to tinker. Solanke being as inconsistent as I expected up to now, maybe he gets something in the meantime, will see how he's going in about 3 weeks time and it might be him out. Jackson falling off a bit, he could be a candidate to move out too by then.
Hall/Lewis still fine rotating in and out for a few weeks yet, all the way up to week 25 or so, but eventually want to bin off Lewis. Double Arsenal defence start no matter who they play, it's why I have them. Want Sanchez gone at some point because Maresca absolutely will start playing the stupid rotation game again once or twice more this season, I'm sure of it although it's far from priority.
Might be looking at the return of Saka when all that's done. Perhaps Konate is back and re-emerges as an interesting defensive option too? Could even look at something with TAA if he becomes essential in my mind. Don't really think there's going to be too much need to disrupt the backline though.
Everything in order for a while. Could almost do with a crisis to make it more fun. I'm sure if I got one I'd curse it.
Happy New Year fellow FPL players!
Gabriel Timber Lewis
Salah(C) Palmer Son Semenyo
Isak Jackson Solanke
Fabianski Hall Greaves Rogers
Already locked for next gameweek. So boring. FA Cup after that, seems such a long time until anything interesting will happen now for me and FPL.
Double midfield switch at that point, Son and Semenyo out for whoever and whoever. 2 of Gordon, Bruno or Mbeumo unless a Liverpool option convinces that they're not a minutes risk. Luis Diaz the obvious most likely one right now, suppose it could be Jota as an outside bet.
Then it's a case of seeing if I want to tinker. Solanke being as inconsistent as I expected up to now, maybe he gets something in the meantime, will see how he's going in about 3 weeks time and it might be him out. Jackson falling off a bit, he could be a candidate to move out too by then.
Hall/Lewis still fine rotating in and out for a few weeks yet, all the way up to week 25 or so, but eventually want to bin off Lewis. Double Arsenal defence start no matter who they play, it's why I have them. Want Sanchez gone at some point because Maresca absolutely will start playing the stupid rotation game again once or twice more this season, I'm sure of it although it's far from priority.
Might be looking at the return of Saka when all that's done. Perhaps Konate is back and re-emerges as an interesting defensive option too? Could even look at something with TAA if he becomes essential in my mind. Don't really think there's going to be too much need to disrupt the backline though.
Everything in order for a while. Could almost do with a crisis to make it more fun. I'm sure if I got one I'd curse it.
Happy New Year fellow FPL players!
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Anyone even thought about chips yet?
This assistant manager thingy is a bit of pain in the arse that you can't use another chip for the 3 weeks that it's in play.
With barely any thought at all I'm thinking Slot for the double GW that features Everton, hopefully it's in 25 but I think it could be moved? Could pick up Mykolenko and a second Liverpool player. Just want it out of the way.
Free hit can be used on a blank GW I think.
Hopefully can hold the wildcard until after the assistant one. Not even sure why but I see them being used hand in hand almost. Either just before or just after.
Think some stuff is going to start to emerge soon regarding doubles/blanks. Lets see who gets knocked out of the FA Cup, Carabao semi final first leg up soon too. If a team takes a commanding lead in the first leg can start to put together some sort of plan.
This assistant manager thingy is a bit of pain in the arse that you can't use another chip for the 3 weeks that it's in play.
With barely any thought at all I'm thinking Slot for the double GW that features Everton, hopefully it's in 25 but I think it could be moved? Could pick up Mykolenko and a second Liverpool player. Just want it out of the way.
Free hit can be used on a blank GW I think.
Hopefully can hold the wildcard until after the assistant one. Not even sure why but I see them being used hand in hand almost. Either just before or just after.
Think some stuff is going to start to emerge soon regarding doubles/blanks. Lets see who gets knocked out of the FA Cup, Carabao semi final first leg up soon too. If a team takes a commanding lead in the first leg can start to put together some sort of plan.
GW24 is what I've read? Liverpool home to Bournemouth and Everton at Leicester. I think that or something else will get confirmed after the cup ties. They tend to move as many fixtures across the pyramid in one go as possible, I think, although I've not usually paid much attention. I've got two Liverpool already and can maybe slowly work a couple more Merseysiders in by then.
What's your usual strategy?
Possibility with the manager chip is play it safe for the first two games with somebody like Slot that will give you the highest chance of guaranteed points and then possibly take a punt on the final game with a manager lower down the table that could score the extra points bonus. The thing with somebody like Slot is you’re more likely to get 6 for the win, higher chance of a clean sheet for 2 points and they score quite a few goals as well. You’ve really got to way up if it’s worth punting on a lower team, right now it feels sensible to play it safe and potentially bank points in a Slot or Arteta and if you really fancy a gamble then go for it in the final game. All about the fixtures with this one.
Forest are doing great but they’re the ideal team to use this chip against for a week imo. High in the table so you could get somebody like Emery when they’re playing Forest at home.
Usual strategy? Don't really have one.
Only my second season playing and this assistant manager one is brand new so I really dont know!People normally talk about free hits around either double or blank gameweeks, that seems to perceived wisdom from what I have seen. If a blank gameweek comes up due to lots of players from big clubs being involved in something like the Carabao Cup final then rather than use a load of transfers to ensure you have plenty of players involved in Premier League action that weekend, just free hit to cover it. That kind of thing.
The same for doubles. If there are some teams with a double gameweek, it's a good time to use it there as well. Bring in plenty of players for one week that will have 2 games.
This assistant manager chip, nobody seems to know yet.
Seen a few different calls about that assistant chip, great shout there regarding Forest. The anti Forest might just be United, a team that could well be on the up later in the season and the sort of club we might want to target from a positive point of view.
Slot or Arteta would be boring choices, no doubt. They just might be the simplest way to roll and get it all done with though.
Double gameweeks a possible way in to it as well.
Also seen some talk of playing the odds in a way. Don't know how to explain it, sort of like looking for value. A win for one of those underdog managers is worth 16 points compared to just 6 for a regular run of the mill favourite kind of manager like Slot etc. If you want want to get all technical and into probability and statistics there's a way to potentially play that off.
Can't wrap my head around the maths right now, still up from NYE drinking, but seeing as those underdog managers can earn almost 3 times as much points from 1 win compared to the favoured assistant managers it might be preferable to go for one of those if you can find good fixtures. Let's say there's a game where you think the underdog manager has a 50% chance of winning a game. 50% of 16 = 8 expected return of points. A favoured manager with an easy fixture can only get 6 points for winning. Ignoring the points you can get for goals/clean sheets there as part of the basic equation in that, draws too. It's the very rough premise into looking at it that way.
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Sorry, it's my first season doing FPL beyond picking a team at the start of the season, and I heard somebody say the phrase "chip strategy" like two days ago so I assume everyone else has one. I can tell you a loads of stats off hand from watching over the years, but feck if I know if you're supposed to have a long term planUsual strategy? Don't really have one.
People normally talk about free hits around either double or blank gameweeks, that seems to perceived wisdom from what I have seen. If a blank gameweek comes up due to lots of players from big clubs being involved in something like the Carabao Cup final then rather than use a load of transfers to ensure you have plenty of players involved in Premier League action that weekend, just free hit to cover it. That kind of thing.
The same for doubles. If there are some teams with a double gameweek, it's a good time to use it there as well. Bring in plenty of players for one week that will have 2 games.
This assistant manager chip, nobody seems to know yet.
Seen a few different calls about that assistant chip, great shout there regarding Forest. The anti Forest might just be United, a team that could well be on the up later in the season and the sort of club we might want to target from a positive point of view.
Slot or Arteta would be boring choices, no doubt. They just might be the simplest way to roll and get it all done with though.
Double gameweeks a possible way in to it as well.
Also seen some talk of playing the odds in a way. Don't know how to explain it, sort of like looking for value. A win for one of those underdog managers is worth 16 points compared to just 6 for a regular run of the mill favourite kind of manager like Slot etc. If you want want to get all technical and into probability and statistics there's a way to potentially play that off.
Can't wrap my head around the maths right now, still up from NYE drinking, but seeing as those underdog managers can earn almost 3 times as much points from 1 win compared to the favoured assistant managers it might be preferable to go for one of those if you can find good fixtures. Let's say there's a game where you think the underdog manager has a 50% chance of winning a game. 50% of 16 = 8 expected return of points. A favoured manager with an easy fixture can only get 6 points for winning. Ignoring the points you can get for goals/clean sheets there as part of the basic equation in that, draws too. It's the very rough premise into looking at it that way.
For doubles, I assume you either pack a load of players in beforehand or you use your free hit there? Since Liverpool are involved I'd guess you're better off doing the former and saving the free hit for an emergency? Christ knows when you're meant to use bench boost, because I've not had a full bench since the start of the season!
Oh, I remember that being a possibility in the last years?! Did they take that out?
Hope all ok. Take it easy and focus on the important stuff.
My chip strategy is I wake up one day, look at team/fixtures and say “hmmm, I think I’ll FH”.Sorry, it's my first season doing FPL beyond picking a team at the start of the season, and I heard somebody say the phrase "chip strategy" like two days ago so I assume everyone else has one. I can tell you a loads of stats off hand from watching over the years, but feck if I know if you're supposed to have a long term plan
For doubles, I assume you either pack a load of players in beforehand or you use your free hit there? Since Liverpool are involved I'd guess you're better off doing the former and saving the free hit for an emergency? Christ knows when you're meant to use bench boost, because I've not had a full bench since the start of the season!
FH : useful if current team has short term injuries/bad fixture/no fixture/1 match ban BUT looks ok for the game week after, so you don’t want to use tfrs. Also useful for a game week where there’s a really ‘loaded’ set of fixtures (say Liverpool home to S’ton, Arsenal home to Ipswich, City home to United (
) and you want to pile onto those teams but just for that game week. Also useful for double gameweeks (two chances per player) OR weeks where some teams don’t play (but if you have 9/10 playing, maybe keep for a better time).Bench boost : what it says on the tin. You’ve got 13/14/15 players that all have decent/similar fixtures and you think you could make a 50/50 and bench a player who gets double figures. Use the chip. Potentially in a double game week but unlikely unless your pre planning has been amazing.
Wildcard : usually when your team is doing awful (form/injuries/fixtures look bad coming up) and you don’t want to use loads of transfers and take a -12/-16. Also useful for ‘dead ending’ which is when your strategy/selection is for a certain number of fixtures/game weeks but then the fixtures completely swing… again, use WC rather than a huge hit.
In terms of long term plans, it ranges from the people who spend every waking hour on FPL (stats, expected throw ins, etc) down to Chipper (puts some thought into it) to me (spend about an hour a week on it). Personally, my main thing is looking at fixture difficulty ratings for the next few games and choosing players/tfrs based on that BUT overlaying with my own view of football - example, FDR says easy but you know your players team has loads of injuries/bans.
Main thing (IMO) is have fun… it’s a game. You’ll learn something every season and hopefully the next ones better.
(*caveat all above with “there are loads of better players than me who might give you more informed/better advice”).
Jesus goal - not as crap a wildcard decision as I'd initially feared then!
And and assist. He's on for three bonus pts. No cleanie though and I've Gabriel and Raya.
unexpected Jesus haul takes me up to 92… if I’d not benched Pedro, would have been 101.
not a humble brag, just my best week of this terrible season BY FAR.
not a humble brag, just my best week of this terrible season BY FAR.
12 points nicely makes up for the 12 Wood points I left benched.
If only I'd remembered United are pony and benched Amad instead. Although I benched his double digit v City! It's all a game of soldiers isn't it!
Not being an arse, but I just realised I'll be on 93
If only i'd left Castagne and Amad out (3 points) and played Hall and Wood (24 points!)
I'm gonna finish on 99 points. That's just annoying
You couldn’t just give me this one tiny thing, could you? One thing Sandy… one.Not being an arse, but I just realised I'll be on 93
If only i'd left Castagne and Amad out (3 points) and played Hall and Wood (24 points!)
(surprised you didn’t have Wood)
83 which I'll happily take with Palmer captain blank. Another what could have been week though.
Amad or Maz going tonight.
Amad or Maz going tonight.
You couldn’t just give me this one tiny thing, could you? One thing Sandy… one.
(surprised you didn’t have Wood)
I can actually leave Jesus in there now, and maybe rack another transfer up. Had barely managed to hold 2 until now.
Unless Chelsea decide Sanchez is left benched and I have no keeper!
Mbuemo keeps doing his thing.
Sorry, it's my first season doing FPL beyond picking a team at the start of the season, and I heard somebody say the phrase "chip strategy" like two days ago so I assume everyone else has one. I can tell you a loads of stats off hand from watching over the years, but feck if I know if you're supposed to have a long term plan
For doubles, I assume you either pack a load of players in beforehand or you use your free hit there? Since Liverpool are involved I'd guess you're better off doing the former and saving the free hit for an emergency? Christ knows when you're meant to use bench boost, because I've not had a full bench since the start of the season!
I don't really klnow other than when people tend to play the free hit. From what I've seen quite a lot do try to hatch a plan with their chips, the more hardcore players at least. Trying my best to impersonate one of those this season.
The assistant manager chip seems to be throwing everyone off with nobody really coming up with anything yet.
I do know a lot look for what this guy is saying on twitter, he's something to do with one of the paid advice sites and has a string of very high finishes in the game. He's always going on about games being moved for cup ties and how best to navigate it:
Saw this the other day too which made me think of it all. Hopefully the video starts at the right place, 6:32 in if it doesn't.
Yes. keep flagging him up as someone I want to bring back into my team. Regret selling him a few weeks back when a lot of others did ahead of some bad looking fixtures coupled with a short lean spell for him where he barely he had a shot in 4 games I think it was.
He's just ultra reliable in the long run, plays 90 minutes nearly every week, is on penalties and takes a lot of corners so always the chance he'll do something for your team.
Didn't think he'd do much tonight given the opposition, but there he is popping up with another goal.
I haven't watched tonight, suppose Brentford's xG of just 0.29 means Brentford were a bit fortunate to score/Arsenal unfortunate to concede on the balance of play but he managed it anyway.
Get him Dirty!
I spent 10 minutes trying to figure out what this is about
You have plenty of time to think about your crime whilst under arrest. As this is a first offence, I will free you tomorrow morning.
Should I put my faith in Jesus?
City are about to go on a run of wins with Haaland scoring aren't they? I've just sold Jackson for Wood and freed up a lot of money. I hope I don't have to use it on Haaland
I'm ranked 3,500,000th this season so everything I say should be ignored but I'm counting on him forgetting how to line up the banjo and the cow's arse soon.
But you're better off listening to someone who knows what they're doing.
Ended on 50 points, down from top 7k to top 33k. Oof.
Shame to see Mbeumo going up on the back of last night, not really surprising with Southampton next. One more rise and I won't be able to get both him and Bruno after next week if that's what I want.
Shame to see Mbeumo going up on the back of last night, not really surprising with Southampton next. One more rise and I won't be able to get both him and Bruno after next week if that's what I want.
Couple of random thougts:
Anyone know much about the maths of xG conceded and clean sheets when it comes to defence? Obviously you want to be conceding fewer good chances, and therefore lower xG. There will inevitably be strong correlation betwen low xG against and number of goals let in being low too.
Thinking more specifically, how often does a team conceding 0.78 xG (random number) concede in a match and how many times do they get a cleanie? Or even how many should they concede? Is it even possible to work out? Suppose the number of shots would make a difference. Concede just 1 shot for that 0.78 and there's a good chance it goes in, but you can't possibly let in more than 1 outside of own goals. Give up 2 x 0.39 chances and you could let in 2, although each chance isn't as good. Are they equally likely to get a clean sheet?
Other one is about FPL penalty assists. Someone like Palmer or Salah can score us lots of penalties but one thing they can't do is assist their own pens. Think we saw a few weeks ago that Evanilson was fouled 3 times for 3 pens, Kluivert scoring a hat-trick. Wonder if there's ever been any research on that kind of thing from a statistical point of view? When Watkins got a ridiculous number of assists last season compared to his xA I think that accounted for a fair amount of it, Douglas Luiz scoring a pen after Watkins was fouled. There are also shots parried by the goalie before someone else scores from the rebound. Those initial shots saved won't be in xA either I don't think, just xG from the first shot counting as a miss. Could there be a way of determining which players are more likely to far outsrip their xA because of things like that?
Nerdy stuff.
Anyone know much about the maths of xG conceded and clean sheets when it comes to defence? Obviously you want to be conceding fewer good chances, and therefore lower xG. There will inevitably be strong correlation betwen low xG against and number of goals let in being low too.
Thinking more specifically, how often does a team conceding 0.78 xG (random number) concede in a match and how many times do they get a cleanie? Or even how many should they concede? Is it even possible to work out? Suppose the number of shots would make a difference. Concede just 1 shot for that 0.78 and there's a good chance it goes in, but you can't possibly let in more than 1 outside of own goals. Give up 2 x 0.39 chances and you could let in 2, although each chance isn't as good. Are they equally likely to get a clean sheet?
Other one is about FPL penalty assists. Someone like Palmer or Salah can score us lots of penalties but one thing they can't do is assist their own pens. Think we saw a few weeks ago that Evanilson was fouled 3 times for 3 pens, Kluivert scoring a hat-trick. Wonder if there's ever been any research on that kind of thing from a statistical point of view? When Watkins got a ridiculous number of assists last season compared to his xA I think that accounted for a fair amount of it, Douglas Luiz scoring a pen after Watkins was fouled. There are also shots parried by the goalie before someone else scores from the rebound. Those initial shots saved won't be in xA either I don't think, just xG from the first shot counting as a miss. Could there be a way of determining which players are more likely to far outsrip their xA because of things like that?
Nerdy stuff.
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I can do timber to TAA with 0.0 ITB…. Should I pull the lever before any price rise
Hard to resist a Salah TC against Utd this weekend. Anyone pulling the trigger on it?
Not with a double game week coming up
Every time I've used it on a DGW the player hadn't played in the 2nd game
Sanchez
TAA, Gabriel
Salah, Palmer
Jesus, Isak
Which four of the six below shall I start?
Timber (Brighton away)
Anderson (Ipswich home)
Hall (Spurs away)
Semenyo (Everton home)
Sarr (Chelsea home)
Solanke (Newcastle home)
TAA, Gabriel
Salah, Palmer
Jesus, Isak
Which four of the six below shall I start?
Timber (Brighton away)
Anderson (Ipswich home)
Hall (Spurs away)
Semenyo (Everton home)
Sarr (Chelsea home)
Solanke (Newcastle home)