EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EU?

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Jippy said:
My news editor is Anglo-Turkish, so I've heard a lot about the joys of life under Erdogan. All the ex-pats voted against him, from what I can gather, while those resident there obviously backed him.

As an aside, I got this Leave campaign flyer through my the door the other day. Meant to upload it earlier. I'm interested in your take on it, particularly given, the 'racism' issue has come up a bit tonight with regard to their campaign.

The front looks like it is an official document, rather than a campaign leaflet. It's only the URL in the inner spread that gives its true identity away.

This is pure scare-mongering though. Did I miss something or if Turkey joins the EU do Iraqi and Syrian nationals automatically get a Turkish, ie EU, passport, by default. Is pure Islamophobia.
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I received my Remain leaflet yesterday as it happens. I can't tell you anything about it though, as i shredded it soon afterwards. The bloody thing had my name on it in big font.

I would interpret the map in two stages: firstly, it is true that Brussels favour the accession of those five countries, and so does Cameron IMO; secondly, it does also play on people's fears over the migrant crisis. I never even considered joining Leave.EU because of issues just like these, so i'd like to hope that any such Islamophobia is unintentional. That being said, there will be some people voting for Out who do hold such views.

With regard to the hypothetical scenario of EU membership - i suspect that the topic of freedom of movement would be most apparent. I cannot comment upon the means by which a refugee might obtain Turkiish citizenship, as that is not something of which i am aware.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
I received my Remain leaflet yesterday as it happens. I can't tell you anything about it though, as i shredded it soon afterwards. The bloody thing had my name on it in big font.

I would interpret the map in two stages: firstly, it is true that Brussels favour the accession of those five countries, and so does Cameron IMO; secondly, it does also play on people's fears over the migrant crisis. I never even considered joining Leave.EU because of issues just like these, so i'd like to hope that any such Islamophobia is unintentional. That being said, there will be some people voting for Out who do hold such views.

With regard to the hypothetical scenario of EU membership - i suspect that the topic of freedom of movement would be most apparent. I cannot comment upon the means by which a refugee might obtain Turkiish citizenship, as that is not something of which i am aware.
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Yeah, I just found that out to my cost in an earlier post!

On the second point, maybe in some cases, but jesus, the DM comment section suggests there are segments of society that believe the words 'Muslim' and 'terrorist' are synonyms. It clearly is targeted at those types.

I'm almost resigned to us leaving now, although I hope I'm being too pessimistic. The out campaign must be looking forward to IDS's thigh-rubbing when the result is announced.
 
Sweet Square said:
A certain level of distrust of ''experts'' is healthy but I disagree that this distrust come from the collapse of 2008(Although it really should do)and has rather more to do with the public incredibly simply view on economics and on the EU(http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-nearly-everything-survey-shows-a7074311.html).

This is the level of talk we have in this country about economics -

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It is wider than that, where were the regulators, where were the rating agencies, where were the IMF and all the other bodies wheeled out in this debate including the bank of England. Reputations are hard to make and very easy to destroy. Most people don't understand economics but they can see a financial collapse and all the people paid to be on top of the situation fecked it right up. The loss of weight of the expert opinions in this argument stems I think directly from this.
 
Cheesy said:
Ah, but is that particular remark 2010? And are the others as strong in their support of Turkey joining?
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The first one is definitely 2010, i'll have to dos oem googling to confirm the other


devilish said:
Do you really believe that a union whose 1/3 the size of Texas and who had just shown the middle finger to all its neighbours (Clinton had urged the UK to remain in the EU) will be in a situation to demand an ala carte trade deal? You'll be lucky if you're offered the same trade deal the EU was given.

You may not notice but the empire doesn't exist anymore. The UK is a relatively rich but small country with plenty of countries who doesn't like it very much.
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So i'm talking about my opposition to TTIP (to protect human rights, environmental standards, democracy), a position that i would extend to all Europe, and you are prattling on about the days of empire? You also seem to be suggesting that geographically smaller nations must accept dodgy treaties out of hand?
 
i've been thinking why suddenly the leave campaign has got a lead in the poles, because really the 'Remain' campaign should be strolling this on the the simple premise that "if we stay in your more likely to keep your job in the short term".

Yet that isn't working.... why???

i don't believe the whole biased BBC and media nonsense, as a few weeks back i couldn't turn on my tv with out been warned if i vote out the economy will collapse and i'll lose my job, backed up with a celebrity telling me to vote to remain.... now i can't turn on my TV without been warned about immigration and warned about EU bills.... so it seems more that the media is just backing whose winning rather then having an agenda....

I also don't believe where a country of racists and have suddenly just remembered this and thats why their has been a swing in the poles....

so what is it? normally you can pretty much bank on the side offering better job security winning so why not this time?
and i've come to the conclusion that the reason the remain campaign is having such a hard time, is because they can offer nothing.... their campaign is basically vote to have nothing change. normally a politician trying to stay in power can at least offer promises of things they are gonna do in their next term, the remain campaign has none of that, the best they can offer is " vote to stay and things won't get worse at the moment"
Thats a really hard sell!!! especially when most people, do have some concerns about various aspects of the EU! and the remain campaign has no way really of addressing these concerns, their just stuck with spreading fear about what will happen if we leave

So the leave campaign has a massive advantage, they have a two pronged attack, they can play the fear campaign about staying in(just like the remain is about leaving) but and they can also offer hope of greener grass if we leave, they can offer solutions to problems(even if the solution is nonsense!) when the remain campaign can't!
That is a massive advantage!!!!

I still think when push comes to shove we will remain in because people will get too scared for their jobs in the immediate future, but it far closer then i would of believed!
 
NinjaFletch said:
But thats the point. Your argument boils down to 'people still suffer therefore the EU has not helped them'. That arguments inherently flawed because you're comparing it to a reality that doesn't exist
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No it doesn't. You've made a leap that I never did. Go back and read what I quoted and replied. I haven't the skill or patience to make it any clearer:

A man who is pushed from a cliff, holding an (E)umbrella up, still falls, even though he falls faster when he let's go.
 
Nick 0208 Ldn said:
So i'm talking about my opposition to TTIP (to protect human rights, environmental standards, democracy), a position that i would extend to all Europe, and you are prattling on about the days of empire? You also seem to be suggesting that geographically smaller nations must accept dodgy treaties out of hand?
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I am just being realistic and I'm sharing my experience as a citizen who come from a country that is smaller then the UK and hasn't been in the EU as long as the UK was.

Much had changed since the UK was 'on its own'. There's no cold war which gave small nations some leverage in terms of dealing with the superpowers, the commonwealth exist only by name and there's no empire to give you diplomatic clout. To make matters worse the UK would be surrounded on one side by a super power the UK had just ignored and on the other side a union it deserted after years blaming everything on it . This sort of patronising attitude is also extended to non EU countries like Russia and Turkey. Not to forget those countries you don't get well with due to historical issues. These are the countries you would want to deal with now that you're going solo.

The UK is a relatively rich but small country. Compared to the US you're only 1/3 the size of Texas. Do you think that the US will bother accepting an a la carte trade deal to a small market especially since it hold no real influence or say to the region its in anymore? You're the one needing them more then they need you. As said you will be lucky if they extend the same deal they offered to the EU. They will probably not do that as it would push the big boys to ask for more.
 
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devilish said:
I am just being realistic and I'm sharing my experience as a citizen who come from a country that is smaller then the UK and hasn't been in the EU as long as the UK was.

Much had changed since the UK was 'on its own'. There's no cold war which gave small nations some leverage in terms of dealing with the superpowers, the commonwealth exist only by name and there's no empire to give you diplomatic clout. To make matters worse the UK would be surrounded on one side by a super power the UK had just ignored and on the other side a union it deserted after years blaming everything on it . This sort of patronising attitude is also extended to non EU countries like Russia and Turkey. Not to forget those countries you don't get well with due to historical issues. These are the countries you would want to deal with now that you're going solo.

The UK is a relatively rich but small country. Compared to the US you're only 1/3 the size of Texas. Do you think that the US will bother accepting an a la carte trade deal to a small market especially since it hold no real influence or say to the region its in anymore? You're the one needing them more then they need you. As said you will be lucky if they extend the same deal they offered to the EU. They will probably not do that as it would push the big boys to ask for more.
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I really don't get this nonsense Obama started about trade deals. We have no trade deal with the US, we've never had one and we've got on perfectly well without one so what's the drama about?

Any US/EU trade deal will be irrelevant in a decade anyway, once we leave the EU others will follow. It's become something it was never intended to be, trying to turn itself into a super-state.

What's so wrong about a people wanting to govern their own affairs and make their own laws that meet their own needs, free from interference and imposition by outside unelected influences?
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
For the time being but the trend is all one way. I don't see what can happen to change the trend either, the fundamental economic problem of tying your currency to a much more productive country's is only getting worse.
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If the UK leaves, they will be used as a guinea pig, people of the other EU countries will watch and see what happens to the UK. If they succeed then sentiment among those people will sway them more towards leaving as well. Imo the chances of this happening are extremely slim, thus if they see the UK floundering and slowly sinking this will bring a sentiment to the other countries that they dare not leave the EU.
 
Paul the Wolf said:
If the UK leaves, they will be used as a guinea pig, people of the other EU countries will watch and see what happens to the UK. If they succeed then sentiment among those people will sway them more towards leaving as well. Imo the chances of this happening are extremely slim, thus if they see the UK floundering and slowly sinking this will bring a sentiment to the other countries that they dare not leave the EU.
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Which is why I think re-negotiations will go very badly - particularly if you have Boris leading the charge (or more likely bumbling around)
 
Rednotdead said:
I really don't get this nonsense Obama started about trade deals. We have no trade deal with the US, we've never had one and we've got on perfectly well without one so what's the drama about?

Any US/EU trade deal will be irrelevant in a decade anyway, once we leave the EU others will follow. It's become something it was never intended to be, trying to turn itself into a super-state.

What's so wrong about a people wanting to govern their own affairs and make their own laws that meet their own needs, free from interference and imposition by outside unelected influences?
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Trade deals are a consequence to a globalised world which had, time and time again, proven to be a successful story all around the world. The US wouldn't be the superpower it is today if spent its time squibbling and arguing between states. Same China and Russia whose basically 1 nation made up of several provinces. Heck even Britain is a union in its all right. Countries like Wales and Scotland do not govern their own affairs, make their own laws free from interference and imposition doesn't they? Shared sovreignity had proven to be quite a successful story. Even the EU was and still is a successful story although the premature entrance of the former Soviet countries and the collapse of Greece finances (the latter is not the EU fault) had taken some of its shine.

All I am saying is that the big fish always eat the small fish and the small guy will always negotiate with the big guy from a disadvantaged position. I don't feel that I am an expert on anything. However I am quite confident on this considering that I come from one of the smallest states in the world. In matter of fact I still feel that Malta's not joining the Union was, in my opinion, my country's biggest mistakes, a costly mistake, lead by some stupid nationalism and the flawed ideology of one man (a socialist anti western world version of Thatcher) that ended up damaging both parties (even the UK but especially us)

Regarding the EU future, surely, Britain's departure would hit the EU. However I seriously doubt that the EU will dissolve because of it. Also once it recovers, it will be made by countries whom, while some are euro-sceptic, they do not have a history in screwing up a unified Europe for its own benefits and will surely remember who tried to screw them up.
 
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Who wants to make some (almost) guaranteed money?
I think most people assume the result is pretty close and if thats the case check out these odds from Ladbrooks currently available on predicting the remain % of the vote :

50-55% = 2/1
45-50% = 11/4
55-60% = 7/2
40-45% = 8/1

So lets be honest unless we see 61%-39% or bigger margin the result will be covered by these odds - and I have seen no credible likelihood of a 20%+ gap

Now if you follow these ratios for each £20 you bet

50-55% (£7.24) returns £21.72
45-50% (£5.75) returns £21.56
55-60% (£4.67) returns £21.01
40-45% (£2.34) returns £21.06

So if you have a lot of money you can afford to loose and you fancy a 99.99% chance of making a minimum of 5% return in a week get on it
 
sun_tzu said:
Which is why I think re-negotiations will go very badly - particularly if you have Boris leading the charge (or more likely bumbling around)
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I can just picture him in a hula hula skirt celebrating this fantastic new trade deal he's negotiated with some obscure island in the South Pacific
 
devilish said:
Trade deals are a consequence to a globalised world which had, time and time again, proven to be a successful story all around the world. The US wouldn't be the superpower it is today if spent its time squibbling and arguing between states. Same China and Russia whose basically 1 nation made up of several provinces. Heck even Britain is a union in its all right. Countries like Wales and Scotland do not govern their own affairs, make their own laws free from interference and imposition doesn't they? Shared sovreignity had proven to be quite a successful story. Even the EU was and still is a successful story although the premature entrance of the former Soviet countries and the collapse of Greece finances (the latter is not the EU fault) had taken some of its shine.

All I am saying is that the big fish always eat the small fish and the small guy will always negotiate with the big guy from a disadvantaged position. I don't feel that I am an expert on anything. However I am quite confident on this considering that I come from one of the smallest states in the world. In matter of fact I still feel that Malta's not joining the Union was, in my opinion, my country's biggest mistakes, a costly mistake, lead by some stupid nationalism and the flawed ideology of one man (a socialist anti western world version of Thatcher) that ended up damaging both parties (even the UK but especially us)

Regarding the EU future, surely, Britain's departure would hit the EU. However I seriously doubt that the EU will dissolve because of it. Also once it recovers, it will be made by countries whom, while some are euro-sceptic, they do not have a history in screwing up a unified Europe for its own benefits and will surely remember who tried to screw them up.
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Malta was doing fine when I lived there (10 St Vincent St, Sliema) as a boy - admittedly it was 1955-58 though!
 
sun_tzu said:
Who wants to make some (almost) guaranteed money?
I think most people assume the result is pretty close and if thats the case check out these odds from Ladbrooks currently available on predicting the remain % of the vote :

50-55% = 2/1
45-50% = 11/4
55-60% = 7/2
40-45% = 8/1

So lets be honest unless we see 61%-39% or bigger margin the result will be covered by these odds - and I have seen no credible likelihood of a 20%+ gap

Now if you follow these ratios for each £20 you bet

50-55% (£7.24) returns £21.72
45-50% (£5.75) returns £21.56
55-60% (£4.67) returns £21.01
40-45% (£2.34) returns £21.06

So if you have a lot of money you can afford to loose and you fancy a 99.99% chance of making a minimum of 5% return in a week get on it
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How much you gone for?
 
Rednotdead said:
Malta was doing fine when I lived there (10 St Vincent St, Sliema) as a boy - admittedly it was 1955-58 though!
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Not really. Malta was a British colony and it was treated as so. The thanks to that was some tin medal, mass sackings from the Malta shipbuilding (which was basically the main industry in Malta at the time) and peanuts from the Marshall aid as Britain decided to keep that chunk of money to itself and leaving us with the scraps. Considering that the country was already poor prior the war and was the most bombed country during the WW2 you can understand why so many people were pissed off, I mean really pissed off.

Nevertheless nationalism and anger took the better of the local people who voted for independence instead of integration. That's quite a shame. Malta is a tiny island (nothing more than a spit in the sea) but with plenty of potential. We've got the SAR region spread from nearly Tunisia to nearly Cyprus and usually SAR is linked with oil rights. Also we're surrounded by countries who have oil (and of great quality) and yet, surprisingly (actually not, we constantly get bullied not to take this matter seriously, with Gheddafi sending his fleet to put us in place once) we are never able to find oil. Also Italy and Libya had been accused of searching and finding oil in our territories in the past and nick it from us and and we were powerless in stopping them.

Would that happen if, lets say, we voted to become British? I much doubt it especially considering how the Brits defended the Falklands in the past. For all I know (and I assure you its an educated guess) we would be both enjoying the benefits of that heap of black gold which would have enriched both the Maltese and you guys. Instead it contributed to fatten the pockets of dictators, corrupt Italian politicians and who knows, it might as well financed a terrorist attack or two.

Also Britain would have a bigger say in the EU considering that most of air and sea traffic between Europe and Africa (including the famous oil pipelines from Libya to Italy) passes from Malta region aka UK seas.

Seriously mate, I just don't want Britain to become the pre EU Malta being bullied by two, much bigger boys (US and EU) on either side.
 
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DiseaseOfTheAge said:
Bloody hell! I was expecting a few hundred.

Can't fault your reasoning. It'd be quite baffling if it didn't come good.
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I don't bet that often (well I trade a bit so I guess thats a gamble) but I can afford to loose the cash if for some random reason there is a massive swing one way or the other - but I just cant see that happening so its a small risk for a free grand is the way I see it
 
Untied said:


Christ. The perfect combination of racism and misinformation
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This was all over facebook for me yesterday because its near where my parents live. Was going to rant about it at the time, but I didn't realise a national newspaper was that thick and assumed it was just the local thickos that couldn't work out that people coming over in the back of a lorry probably are already not allowed here.
 
NinjaFletch said:
This was all over facebook for me yesterday because its near where my parents live. Was going to rant about it at the time, but I didn't realise a national newspaper was that thick and assumed it was just the local thickos that couldn't work out that people coming over in the back of a lorry probably are already not allowed here.
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I dont think the Daily Racist are that thick at all - they are just that racist
 
NinjaFletch said:
Por que no los dos?
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Imagine a scenario where a toddler is saved from being mauled to death by a massive dog because a bystander (happens to be an immigrant) wrestles and fights the dog - he even has to bite the dog to get it off the toddler
Most newspapers would say something along the lines of hero saves baby
Some (e.g the sun) would go with Man bites dog
The Daily Racist would go with violent immigrant attacks loved family pet
They are not daft - they are just nasty bigoted people who will twist anything they can into serving their racist agenda
 
sun_tzu said:
Imagine a scenario where a toddler is saved from being mauled to death by a massive dog because a bystander (happens to be an immigrant) wrestles and fights the dog - he even has to bite the dog to get it off the toddler
Most newspapers would say something along the lines of hero saves baby
Some (e.g the sun) would go with Man bites dog
The Daily Racist would go with violent immigrant attacks loved family pet
They are not daft - they are just nasty bigoted people who will twist anything they can into serving their racist agenda
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this
 
sun_tzu said:
Who wants to make some (almost) guaranteed money?
I think most people assume the result is pretty close and if thats the case check out these odds from Ladbrooks currently available on predicting the remain % of the vote :

50-55% = 2/1
45-50% = 11/4
55-60% = 7/2
40-45% = 8/1

So lets be honest unless we see 61%-39% or bigger margin the result will be covered by these odds - and I have seen no credible likelihood of a 20%+ gap

Now if you follow these ratios for each £20 you bet

50-55% (£7.24) returns £21.72
45-50% (£5.75) returns £21.56
55-60% (£4.67) returns £21.01
40-45% (£2.34) returns £21.06

So if you have a lot of money you can afford to loose and you fancy a 99.99% chance of making a minimum of 5% return in a week get on it
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I'm pretty naive on betting and the terminology so I'm missing how this works. For instance, wouldn't the50-55% return 40+20 leaving you 20 down from the 80 you put in?
 
senorgregster said:
I'm pretty naive on betting and the terminology so I'm missing how this works. For instance, wouldn't the50-55% return 40+20 leaving you 20 down from the 80 you put in?
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He's not putting the same amount on each, he's putting £7.24 on 50-55% for every £20 he bets in total.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
It is wider than that, where were the regulators, where were the rating agencies, where were the IMF and all the other bodies wheeled out in this debate including the bank of England. Reputations are hard to make and very easy to destroy. Most people don't understand economics but they can see a financial collapse and all the people paid to be on top of the situation fecked it right up. The loss of weight of the expert opinions in this argument stems I think directly from this.
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And that's why out is going to win now. People take the warnings from Cameron and the rest of the world as "threats" and they're clearly just warnings of the impact a Brexit will cause on the world and the UK. This will be the first time in history a country has voted itself and the global economy into economic suicide, it's incredible.
 
Prodigal7 said:
And that's why out is going to win now. People take the warnings from Cameron and the rest of the world as "threats" and they're clearly just warnings of the impact a Brexit will cause on the world and the UK. This will be the first time in history a country has voted itself and the global economy into economic suicide, it's incredible.
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Exactly. Take the reaction to Osbourne's talk of an emergency budget yesterday. Maybe he should have been smart enough not to say it, but its bloody common sense isn't it? And then you get 60 MPs 'pledging' to vote against it and half the UK going 'omg i cant believe Osbourne's threatening us by saying that the goverment will have to spend less money or tax us higher if we make a decision that will hurt out economy'. Just utterly bizzare.
 
NinjaFletch said:
Exactly. Take the reaction to Osbourne's talk of an emergency budget yesterday. Maybe he should have been smart enough not to say it, but its bloody common sense isn't it? And then you get 60 MPs 'pledging' to vote against it and half the UK going 'omg i cant believe Osbourne's threatening us by saying that the goverment will have to spend less money or tax us higher if we make a decision that will hurt out economy'. Just utterly bizzare.
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To be fair he may not get to make an emergency budget as I could see him and Cameron walking away and telling boris to clean up the mess he has made
 
NinjaFletch said:
Exactly. Take the reaction to Osbourne's talk of an emergency budget yesterday. Maybe he should have been smart enough not to say it, but its bloody common sense isn't it? And then you get 60 MPs 'pledging' to vote against it and half the UK going 'omg i cant believe Osbourne's threatening us by saying that the goverment will have to spend less money or tax us higher if we make a decision that will hurt out economy'. Just utterly bizzare.
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Anyone saying that the economy is going to be negatively affected by the out campaign is now said to be threatening the almighty British people. It's fantastic campaigning by the Out campaign tbh and it's what will win them this vote. Voting in is apparently very unpatriotic as well.
 
sun_tzu said:
To be fair he may not get to make an emergency budget as I could see him and Cameron walking away and telling Boris to clean up the mess he has made
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He'll be joined by the whole of Scotland in a few years. That Moron Boris can preside over the biggest meltdown ever seen in an economically developed country. I wonder if public opinion will change when the job losses and cuts actually come in and if there might be hope of another referendum at that time.
 
Still can't quite believe I'm a position where I'm having to hope people listen to Osborne and Cameron...
 
Prodigal7 said:
He'll be joined by the whole of Scotland in a few years. That Moron Boris can preside over the biggest meltdown ever seen in an economically developed country. I wonder if public opinion will change when the job losses and cuts actually come in and if there might be hope of another referendum at that time.
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I do wonder if the EU are serious about wanting the UK to stay if they might not say look you have 2 years to negotiate your exit - but if you come to your senses change your mind during that time you can stay.
And at the end of the two years Boris et al have negotiated such a shitty deal they have to go back to another referendum as to if we will accept it or not.
Either way if the result is close (and it looks like being) I don't think we have seen the end of the argument
 
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