Looking from a purely financial viewpoint, I can see no benefit in the UK being separated from the rest and having separate deals but I think this subject has been discussed to death on here. I really can't see any financial benefit at all
EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.
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Looking from a purely financial viewpoint, I can see no benefit in the UK being separated from the rest and having separate deals but I think this subject has been discussed to death on here. I really can't see any financial benefit at all
In the short-term, a temporary recession, as said, a sharp rise in unemployment, and a rise in inflation. Much-reduced government income would mean more austerity and increased taxes.
In the medium-term, because of our reduced situation we would have to do a deal with the EU on trade that would allow EU immigration to continue. If I thought we might resist that I would be interested, but no one in Leave is claiming that we would, they all just deny any need in the first place.
In the long-term Turkey would join the EU because we wouldn't be there to veto them any longer, which means we would have no choice but to allow their immigration as per the deal above.
The last bit's just for my sense of humour to be honest, in reality other EU members would be queueing up to veto them anyway.
This is the sort of thing I just feel is ideological, does it really affect me in any great way. Not sure.
The house price thing is bad for me as we own.
Pro's of leaving:
- Returning of democratic power to the Tory party ...I mean people
- Defeat of the 4th Reich
- Defeat of Napoleon
- Closures of borders to all foreigners
- Trade deals with Uganda, Paraguay and North Korea
- Return of the British Empire
- Boris Johnson as PM
- Hanging of Louis van Gaal
- England to win Euro2016
When you boil down the arguments Leave come out with it effectively comes down to this, yes.
Seriously don't believe in polls any more but
Pensioners, Tory voters and men are deserting the Brexit campaign
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...aign/ar-BBtnZqn?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignoutmd
Pensioners, Tory voters and men are deserting the Brexit campaign
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...aign/ar-BBtnZqn?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignoutmd
Even Nick's deserted this thread. Not looking good for #teambrexit.
Stay 1/7 on
Leave 4/1 against
of course bookies can get things wrong (Leicester 5000/1) but unless something happens to change the narrative it looks like we are going to stay (which I for one am happy about)... although the stay campaign will still have to be careful of complacency in getting the vote out and a big terrorist incident at the Euros or in London (undertaken by people who entered on EU passports or were embedded within refugees) then perhaps a big swing is still possible?
Leave 4/1 against
of course bookies can get things wrong (Leicester 5000/1) but unless something happens to change the narrative it looks like we are going to stay (which I for one am happy about)... although the stay campaign will still have to be careful of complacency in getting the vote out and a big terrorist incident at the Euros or in London (undertaken by people who entered on EU passports or were embedded within refugees) then perhaps a big swing is still possible?
You thinking of selling?
My house price dropped by 50k during the last recession, its worth has gone up 100k since then, 60k more than we paid.
EU or not, house prices do that
UK has a housing shortage, that wont change whatever the vote
I'm shocked that the odds are so in favour of Remain - I work in retail and my boss gets into discussions with lots of customers every day about the referendum (he is fiercley Brexit) and I have yet to even see a customer who is for remaining.
I am in favour of Remain, personally (not that I am very passionate about it - I don't think it makes much difference - and like someone else said, this seems to be mostly an ideological battle).
But I think the polls/bookies are getting this massively wrong (like they did at the general election) - I think anti-immigration sentiments amongst the working-class traditional Labour voters is much more prominent than people realise and I think we will see a bigger turnout than is expected.
I think mainstream political ideology has shifted right (like many commentators have suggested) and not many traditional Labour voters retain the old Socialist, humanist values - they have grown older, more centrist and in many cases a kind of closet-fascist masked as mildly conservative/nationalist.
Yeah I think the same and specifically for the bit highlighted.
I honestly think the people who want out are more motivated to get up and vote than those who would prefer to remain who I would class as more of the 'meh' vote.
Let's face it a lot of dimwits that wouldn't normally vote in an election are voting out purely because "Immigration". And I say that about members of my own family.
It's all about immigration.
Brexiters hiding behind these fantasy deals and saving the UK from the EU 'entrance fee' and the laws governing their lives, it's all a load of codswallop and a smokescreen.
It is purely about immigration and to the ordinary person in the street that is all they care about - so yes I am concerned that the UK would be daft enough to vote Leave.
Brexiters hiding behind these fantasy deals and saving the UK from the EU 'entrance fee' and the laws governing their lives, it's all a load of codswallop and a smokescreen.
It is purely about immigration and to the ordinary person in the street that is all they care about - so yes I am concerned that the UK would be daft enough to vote Leave.
I'm not sure I'd say dimwits but if we focus on people not typically engaged in the electoral process then equally a lot of them still wont vote, some of them wont have remembered to register to vote and because turn out is expected to be very high i think a significant proportion of the "meh" vote you describe will still vote (with most breaking towards stay).
You say potato I say potato (in a slightly different way).
Of course there will still be a sizeable chunk not arsed to vote but I just feel the anti immigration rhetoric will rouse your average 'St Georges flag out the bedroom window' little Englander in a manner usually only reserved for UEFA football tournaments and BNP marches.
Probably because most people aren't going to get into an in-depth discussion about the virtues of the EU with some rabid loon shouting at them about Brexit when all they want to do is buy a Mars bar and feck off some where else?
population of uk is approx 65 million with around 15 million under 18 so around 50 million people eligable to vote
yet under 45 million are on the electoral register so one in 10 people cant vote even if they wanted to (unless they register by 7th June)
I dont have stats to hand but I would suspect that of the missing 10% from the electoral register a disproportionately high number are those you describe as 'little Englanders.
of that 45 million I would be shocked if we actually see more than 35 million turn out, - in fact most betting sites suggest around 62% turn out expected (around 28 million)
I just think a lot of people wont turn out - but the little englanders make up such a small % of the population and an even smaller % of the registered electorate that it wont be signifigant... most voters will be people who voted in the last general election
Haha. My boss is a contradictory character - he's actually a Buddhist, very gentle guy but he is very "I don't want Brussells telling us what to do" etc. Our shop is kind of a New Age/Spiritual store and often we'll see customers casually engaging in debates/conversations of philosophical/spiritual/political nature (we get a lot of consipiracy-theory loons in!)
So, no Mars bars here - but I take your point, and like @CassiusClaymore said - the Brexit argument is more passionate and proactive than the relatively 'meh' Remain argument.
Will the England squad vote, being in France and all?
I'd find it really funny if we hear Rooney/ Wilshere/ Vardy etc all asked for their opinions during the Euros.
I'd find it really funny if we hear Rooney/ Wilshere/ Vardy etc all asked for their opinions during the Euros.
Doubt it. You're talking about people that can't make a cup of tea or boil an egg.
There's only one Marcus Rashford!
Depends if they have registered for a postal vote... mind you our last group game is 20th so who knows they may all be home (or getting smashed in vegas) by then
Thinking this is probably the best thread for this -
I'm going to Berlin this weekend, and then going back into Europe a couple more times at the end of June. Am I better buying all my Euros now, before the mayhem of the Referendum gets into full swing, or are we already in the worst of it now?
I'm going to Berlin this weekend, and then going back into Europe a couple more times at the end of June. Am I better buying all my Euros now, before the mayhem of the Referendum gets into full swing, or are we already in the worst of it now?
I'd buy some now just in case. Hard to tell though, depends on what people perceive will be the outcome.
Euro is weakening a little currently against the pound, presumably because it looks as if the Remain will win.
If Leave win the Euro will get stronger and the pound weaker.
Thus if you think Remain wins, wait, if you think Leave will win, do it now
I've got two trips in June before the referendum though, so the final result won't really affect it. It's only if the pound will strengthen in the next month. I imagine the perception of instability will only get worse before then, so now's the best time to buy. Uncertain though.
Not selling but it's never good to lose equity.
Even if one were to assume that we had a more streamlined version of what people describe as the 'Norway model', we are going to have more money to spend on projects at home. Not a small amount either, enough to make an recognisable impact on the shortfall afflicting public services at present. It could be used for nurses and doctors, new schools, or subsidised green initiatives with the object of reducing energy costs. The direction of investment would be driven by the government of the day, be it Conservative or a Lab-Lib coalition in 2020/2025.
A good example of the greed which exists at the EU would be the EEAS, it epitomises both money wasted and ambition for power. As of last year the department's annual budget ran to 1bn, and this will only grow over time. Why are European nations (and by extension their taxpayers) paying for Brussels to have its own Foreign Office? Does such an arm of government serve your interests, or provide afford some questionable politician a title and status?
If, on the other hand, the UK attempts to forge its own unique arrangement with Europe, the potential benefits to trade are even acknowledged by the Remain camp. Indeed a Government memo leaked to the Telegraph at the weekend, argued that objections by other EU sates to a South American trade deal was costing the UK upwards of £2bn per year. Conversely, a win for Leave offers the best chance of stopping TTIP. Obama's legacy project carries the very real risk of harming the everyday lives of European citizens: from lower food and environmental standards, to payouts to corporations in the even that we decide upon policies which hurt their profit margin. Why should our leaders feel constrained by the whims of Monsanto?
Finally, i'll touch on the often exaggerated topic of immigration. Contrary to the respective brands of stupidity projected by Remainers and Ukippers alike, there shall be no raising of drawbridges or mass expulsions of eastern Europeans. Yet if combined with an effective system of apprenticeships and training programmes throughout the next decade, we can certainly bring the numbers down to something more sustainable. Not only will this go to alleviate the pressure on housing supply in the UK, but wages and skills in the will increase in kind. Regrettably, exploitation has been an inescapable consequence of Europe's existing system of freedom of movement. It is a cheap solution for big business and a lazy one for national governments. The host population are victims, as are the migrants themselves.
For me, Brexit is about building something better, for these islands of ours and all Europe. We can enhance democracy at home and create better public services, find a third way in the stagnant politics of a continent. There might well be an economic shock in the immediate term, however i would expect a sense of calm to be restored within months, if not weeks. I cannot tell you what to believe or presume upon what sort of country you hope for in the future, but i'd far rather we show the ingenuity of making the attempt than do nothing at all.
Any money that might be saved by leaving the EU would only be used by this Tory government to give high earners a tax cut
Meanwhile, in the real world...
It wouldn't matter if It was worth a pound if you're not selling
Anyone who thinks the UK will save money by leaving the EU are in for a nasty shock
Thanks very much for that, I appreciate hearing from someone sensible regarding brexit. Most the people I've heard from on Facebook etc have just been right wing idiots who just don't like immigrants.
So in terms of direct impact on the average man you're saying an improvement in public services. As another poster mentioned above, this worries me with a tory government as they are clearly hellbent on privatising everything to benefit the wealthy. I fear if we brexit and retain the conservatives any chance of a more equal society will be scuppered for decades.
A lot of the other things you mention again sound ideological and will have little direct impact on your average joe.
Its effects ability to borrow money and security. I'd rather have 150k in my house than minus 150k.
This is even wishier and washier than I anticipated. You're addressing the one topic that could win the vote for Leave and offering absolutely nothing.
More apprenticeships and training might or might not be a good idea but we don't need to leave the EU to bring that in. Sorry to say it comes across as an argument born of desperation.
Apparently you're happy to accept the Norway model of agreement, free movement and all, which is honest but takes the whole topic of immigration right out of the Leave argument. Good luck with what remains.
The problem is that Nick's giving you the absolute wet dream from a Brexit point of view and the chances are, if things do get better in the long term, which is unlikely, they're almost certain to get worse in the short term (a fact Nick acknowledges but tries to hand wave away).
Much more likely is that Brexit will lead to a decrease in the quality of public services, because we simply have less money to fund them. A point that the Chief Executive of NHS England has made too:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36353145
What's the likelihood of Turkey joining the EU, and within what time frame?
Very unlikely in the next 20odd years.
Why do you think its unlikely within the next 20 years? They will soon likely have Visa free travel and joining the EU probably wont be far behind. If they want to join and the EU wants them in as it appears they do with their ever expanding empire then it will be long before 20 years.
Visa-free travel? If anythintg it's all going the other and becoming more draconian. I've had the joy of battling through US customs twice in the last two months. Horrendous experience.
they dont really want to join and there are various governments in the EU and a lot of people who´d do everything in their power to stop it. There was a small window of opportunity, where both sides genuinely thought about it, but it closed long time ago. Politicians just never officially ended the conversation because it might make them look bad.
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