I think they will be given a fast track to EU membership + the EU will agree to all concessions they may be asking to enter the EU. (Believe it or not EU membership is a negotiation between the country and the Union). The plan would be to move is many businesses and therefore jobs out of England into EU Zones.
EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.
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I think they will be given a fast track to EU membership + the EU will agree to all concessions they may be asking to enter the EU. (Believe it or not EU membership is a negotiation between the country and the Union). The plan would be to move is many businesses and therefore jobs out of England into EU Zones.
In theory yes in practice well, no. The reason being that once a law is set no one would really be able to change it back. Take the horrible deal junior doctors were given by Jeremy Hunt (which translate into a massive paycut). Do you think that the Cobryn will change that? I shiver at the thought of these capitalists taking over the country with no restraints whatsoever. The workers rights will be worse then in the US. Meanwhile the Tories best buddies will enjoy unlimited bonuses etc
I assure you that the financial sector is just 1 thing that makes this country great. Tourism for example is another one and you would be surprised how undeveloped this important industry is in countries like Italy
Where I work we deal with major European companies from Germany and France. I don't see it being in the EU's interest overall to start playing up if the Brexit comes to pass. If anything they will be as accommodating as possible because it will harm many countries economies not to be.
I am starting to think that the economic scaremongering is simply a tactic, much like the currency threat against Scotland was.
If you think about it the only sensible thing for the EU to do in the event of a Brexit would be to let the current trade agreements run until new ones are negotiated. Big business Europe wide will want access to the 5th largest economy in the world and will lobby the EU for the best trade deals possible. The idea that the EU will punish us through spite seems very far fetched.
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I'm not really well informed about all this, but what would be the benefit of leaving?
Keep the bloody immigrants out. That is the long and short of it I think.
Cameron's EU deal could be overturned by European Court of Justice, claims Gove
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...gove/ar-BBpV71M?li=BBoPRmx&ocid=mailsignoutmd
http://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknew...gove/ar-BBpV71M?li=BBoPRmx&ocid=mailsignoutmd
The out campaign don't know beyond taking control of our borders.
It really isn't.
Leaving only means that the power to control immigration is in the hands of the UK government. What form that would actually take would be at whatever government is in power own discretion.
That dynamic applies to all lawmaking that is currently in the hands of unelected EU bodies.
And that is only one aspect of leaving the EU.
It should be obvious that the deal goes against EU Law (and therefore could be overturned by the Court of Justice)... that is the point of the deal. Otherwise they wouldn't need one.
It will require a treaty, as Gove rightly points out, but Cameron is right too I think. The different nations have all agreed. We don't know what the effect would be of them backing out, but presumably it wouldn't be good.
But not ALL the Nation states.
The first question for any outer must be, do you want us to join the EFTA? Because if we join the EFTA, then we have to accept free movement of workers anyway. So all those Poles, Romanians and Bulgarians can still come over here once they have a job offer.
The EU has an elected body (EU Parliament) which is superseded by all the other elected bodies (the National States through the European Council).
What are you referring to that isn't elected?
If I have a problem with any trade agreement I want legitimate democratic power to vote out whichever governmental body has implemented it. The EU has four bodies that deal with legislation the European Parliament, the European Council, the Council of the European Union (the Council) and the European Commission. Only one is directly democratically elected. I am happy to admit that I don't fully understand (I wonder if you are) how the complex, remote and even mysterious EU parliament works in practice and in that is the problem.
I find the idea of immigration by job offer to be an excellent idea. I like how you assume that you can reduce my views on the referendum to the issue of immigration. All that says to me is that you as shallow on the issue as those on the right that perceive the only issue to be immigration.
I am not an outer yet. I want to hear more on the economic argument first.
Why are you pro EU?
That's all I've seen to be honest. Britain First lot defending their jeeeerbs from dirty foreigners.
Unfortunately that is the tone of the debate but it is a lot more nuanced than that.
From the perspective of the right sovereignty is the big issue. A lot of British people believe that we should have full determination over the destiny of our country and that the modern EU is guilty of massive overreach when it comes to lawmaking. The immigration issue is tied up in this.
From the perspective of the (real) hard left the EU is nothing more than a neoliberal movement, with the interests of big business increasingly becoming more influential in all aspects of governance.
And that is why you have George Galloway and Boris Johnson campaigning on the same side.
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Ah, this is a decent point to be fair. It's not one I have a real answer for. I'd say you're absolutely right. It seems like the EU started going down the path where that might be possible, but they stopped at the status quo to stop powers moving away from the national governments. The only redeeming feature might be that everything happens (broadly) with the agreement of all the national governments, and all the national peoples (through the EU Parliament).
As I said, the first question for any outer has to be whether or not they want us to join the EFTA. I guess it's human nature to want the best of both worlds, but if anyone want's more control than free movement of workers, then I think they could be very disappointed, even when we leave the EU. Boris and Gove might have a vision for what we should become outside the EU, but that's not to say anyone else would subscribe to it.
To be fair, I'm not exactly Pro-EU. I've said I will vote to stay in, but that's largely because the counter argument at the moment makes no sense. The EU is a monster, but its a monster that at the very least, holds back extremest governments and promotes peace in the region.
The EU is strongly against the Death Penalty and requires its member states to abolish it, and forces it's states to abide by it's human rights (which we wrote!). It binds it's member states together, removes the borders between them and with it the friction.
Most of the arguments against the EU can almost be turned into a positive. The Tories hate the fact that they are bound to the EU human rights laws, which is fair enough, but forcing countries like Turkey and such to abide by them as a requirement to join can only be a good thing.
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The idea that the UK would be less in the pockets of big business if it went alone than it is as part of Europe is one of the more laughable arguments I hear. In that sense I understand the objections to the EU from the right, I dont agree with them but at least they make sense and are consistent. But wanting to leave the EU because it is a neoliberal movement protecting the interests of big business? From someone residing in the UK? Its preposterous.
Obviously I am generalising here but on the whole these European laws people bristle at set things like minimum standards for pollution (hence the problem with Heathrow's third runway) and provide consumer protection. We have already opted out of the working hours directive that tried to ensure people had a reasonable work/life balance, the UK didnt like it because it was anti business. In fact, if the UK leaves Europe we will strip away much of that pesky regulation, that isnt for the public's benefit, it is business that will lobby for it. I was having this argument with a family member who is pretty hard left a month or so ago, she was saying she might vote to leave Europe because it will sign TTIP. I suggested that if we left Europe we will bilaterally sign agreements with the US that make just as many compromises on standards or whatever as TTIP does, and probably a great deal more. There will be voices in Europe fighting for greater protections for Europe in TTIP, they sure as hell wont be coming from Britain, which is all about trade trade trade, business, business, business.
You can make the traditional business case that pro-business measures increase employment and improve the economy and ultimately benefit the population, some people buy that and some people dont. But dont kid yourself that a UK outside of Europe is going to start going after big business interests and offering home-grown social protections that wouldnt be available in Europe, that is a complete fantasy.
Obviously I am generalising here but on the whole these European laws people bristle at set things like minimum standards for pollution (hence the problem with Heathrow's third runway) and provide consumer protection. We have already opted out of the working hours directive that tried to ensure people had a reasonable work/life balance, the UK didnt like it because it was anti business. In fact, if the UK leaves Europe we will strip away much of that pesky regulation, that isnt for the public's benefit, it is business that will lobby for it. I was having this argument with a family member who is pretty hard left a month or so ago, she was saying she might vote to leave Europe because it will sign TTIP. I suggested that if we left Europe we will bilaterally sign agreements with the US that make just as many compromises on standards or whatever as TTIP does, and probably a great deal more. There will be voices in Europe fighting for greater protections for Europe in TTIP, they sure as hell wont be coming from Britain, which is all about trade trade trade, business, business, business.
You can make the traditional business case that pro-business measures increase employment and improve the economy and ultimately benefit the population, some people buy that and some people dont. But dont kid yourself that a UK outside of Europe is going to start going after big business interests and offering home-grown social protections that wouldnt be available in Europe, that is a complete fantasy.
Boris vs The City - The Referendum Hokey-cokey
HAHHAHAHAAHAH
Annuity rates was the biggie wasn't it, from memory?
Oh dear.
@Adebesi
I don't really want to get into what this government might or might not do if we leave the EU. The crucial point is that if we do leave we can legitimately mobilise a political movement that will be able to eject them from power if we don't like their policies. Practically we cannot do that if we are in the EU. There is no guarantee that the EU will always be more liberal either.
@rcoobc
Sorry if I was a bit sharp. I get a bit annoyed that you are perceived as a UKIP party member if you express any kind of Euro-scepticism.
I totally agree with you that we don't know what policies regarding immigration will be adopted if we leave but I am not too interested in that. In fact I would still expect immigration to continue at relatively high levels if we did leave.
The core reason for my Euro-scepticism is what I perceive to be the dilution of our democratic rights and what the tangible benefits of membership actually are. To me, those benefits, seem at best, impossible to quantify.
I don't really want to get into what this government might or might not do if we leave the EU. The crucial point is that if we do leave we can legitimately mobilise a political movement that will be able to eject them from power if we don't like their policies. Practically we cannot do that if we are in the EU. There is no guarantee that the EU will always be more liberal either.
@rcoobc
Sorry if I was a bit sharp. I get a bit annoyed that you are perceived as a UKIP party member if you express any kind of Euro-scepticism.
I totally agree with you that we don't know what policies regarding immigration will be adopted if we leave but I am not too interested in that. In fact I would still expect immigration to continue at relatively high levels if we did leave.
The core reason for my Euro-scepticism is what I perceive to be the dilution of our democratic rights and what the tangible benefits of membership actually are. To me, those benefits, seem at best, impossible to quantify.
Pretty much. Big business will threaten to leave/cut trade or whatever, but most of them will probably just continue on as before...like would've probably been the case with Scotland. People aren't going to avoid trade with the UK just cause they're pissed off at it leaving the EU. If anything, it'll let the much more pro-EU, committed to further union countries to get on with their further plans without us constantly moaning.
I'm still confused as to why people think the EU would feel they have to rush a deal, but the UK would be entirely relaxed about it.
A Brexit will cause a sharp short term spasm in economies Europe wide. A smooth negotiation is in the best interests of all parties and I predict the outcome will be a trade deal that isn't dissimilar to the current existing one. There are too many major European businesses that are now intertwined in our economy. I think that the current trade deal will be given special dispensation to continue while the new deal is sorted out.
How do you predict the whole thing would look?
I think it's extremely difficult to predict and a very risky gamble to say we'd be able to get near as good a deal as we get now. A Leave result would also cause a shock to our economy, so the EU would have every bit of leverage, if not more, than the UK in such negotiations. I can't see the member states wanting to set a precedent that someone leaving the membership can have as good a deal without paying anything in, without free movement, without subjection to regulations. They have every reason to let the UK sweat for the two-year period.
The main point is the risk, which is undeniable, and why I think Remain will take it solidly in the end.
You are right. I was being too giddy with the deal prediction.
I think remain will win out. Firstly because of the perceived economic risk, secondly because of the motley crew pushing the leave campaign and I think a lot of left leaning folk perceive any kind of Euro-scepticism to be aligning yourself with UKIP.
I can see it going the other way just as easily. I said before I think it is all about immigration and I stand by that. The Syrian refugee crisis comes at a difficult time for this referendum. If we see numbers pick up as the weather improves, as has been fairly consistently predicted will be the case, and if the issue about distributing them across Europe crops up again, which, let's face it, it definitely will, the argument that the UK should take control of its borders is going to gain a lot of resonance.
In terms of what kind of an offer Europe offers to the UK, in the event that it does vote to leave, I can also see that playing out both ways.
I certainly see the logic of the "everything will end up looking pretty much the same as now" argument, that we will get a trade deal that allows both sides to maintain the status quo. It is certainly in everyone's interests - in some ways - for that to happen. But I wouldnt dismiss the other argument, the "they wont want to let the UK be seen to get a good deal" one, either, because it has an equally compelling logic: Euroscepticism is on the rise across the continent and the EU is not about to feed it by showing people that they dont actually need Europe, that all the benefits can be achieved just as well outside as inside.
If that idea takes root the project will unravel pretty quickly. And though I am on balance in favour of Europe I know it is far from perfect, only just about good, even. I can admit that it is motivated by self preservation more than anything else, and is capable of biting off its nose to spite its face. So politicians may well end up facing down corporate lobbying from their own countries calling for a constructive arrangement with the UK, because the longer term good of the European projects is more important than the short term interests of growth in this quarter, or a few billion euros worth of trade here or there. They will see it as a longer term play, a case of a bit of pain now for more gain several years down the line.
I am always a bit wary of overestimating the UK's importance in Europe, but there is a part of me that has this nagging suspicion that if we do leave the whole thing WILL unravel, regardless of what the Eurocrats do to discourage it. Its not because the UK is necessary to make Europe feasible, at all. It is more like a dam that has a small crack in it, once water finds a way through it is just a matter of time before the whole thing crumbles, and if Holland or Spain - or Greece for that matter - had been the ones leaving, it would probably have created similar pressures. That was widely acknowledged when Greece was staring down the barrel of "Grexit" and is why, people say, politicians fought so hard to keep it in, despite the fact it was a basket case.
What would have been nice would have been for this whole thing to have been an opportunity for real reform of Europe to make it less dysfunctional, better at taking decisions, more transparent, more accountable, more democratic. But inevitably it hasnt panned out that way. It is notable that none of the demands Cameron made looked to address these fundamental issues, he didnt ask for reform to the actual structure of Europe to make it more democratic, he went instead for cosmetic stuff he thought he could get quickly, and which could be dressed up as substantial solutions to perceived problems, like these hoardes of immigrants that gobble up benefits (despite the fact that there is no evidence to suggest immigrants come over here to claim benefits in any significant numbers at all.) That is understandable because he didnt have time to negotiate real reform, and even if he did, it wouldnt excite any of his own voters, particularly.
I certainly see the logic of the "everything will end up looking pretty much the same as now" argument, that we will get a trade deal that allows both sides to maintain the status quo. It is certainly in everyone's interests - in some ways - for that to happen. But I wouldnt dismiss the other argument, the "they wont want to let the UK be seen to get a good deal" one, either, because it has an equally compelling logic: Euroscepticism is on the rise across the continent and the EU is not about to feed it by showing people that they dont actually need Europe, that all the benefits can be achieved just as well outside as inside.
If that idea takes root the project will unravel pretty quickly. And though I am on balance in favour of Europe I know it is far from perfect, only just about good, even. I can admit that it is motivated by self preservation more than anything else, and is capable of biting off its nose to spite its face. So politicians may well end up facing down corporate lobbying from their own countries calling for a constructive arrangement with the UK, because the longer term good of the European projects is more important than the short term interests of growth in this quarter, or a few billion euros worth of trade here or there. They will see it as a longer term play, a case of a bit of pain now for more gain several years down the line.
I am always a bit wary of overestimating the UK's importance in Europe, but there is a part of me that has this nagging suspicion that if we do leave the whole thing WILL unravel, regardless of what the Eurocrats do to discourage it. Its not because the UK is necessary to make Europe feasible, at all. It is more like a dam that has a small crack in it, once water finds a way through it is just a matter of time before the whole thing crumbles, and if Holland or Spain - or Greece for that matter - had been the ones leaving, it would probably have created similar pressures. That was widely acknowledged when Greece was staring down the barrel of "Grexit" and is why, people say, politicians fought so hard to keep it in, despite the fact it was a basket case.
What would have been nice would have been for this whole thing to have been an opportunity for real reform of Europe to make it less dysfunctional, better at taking decisions, more transparent, more accountable, more democratic. But inevitably it hasnt panned out that way. It is notable that none of the demands Cameron made looked to address these fundamental issues, he didnt ask for reform to the actual structure of Europe to make it more democratic, he went instead for cosmetic stuff he thought he could get quickly, and which could be dressed up as substantial solutions to perceived problems, like these hoardes of immigrants that gobble up benefits (despite the fact that there is no evidence to suggest immigrants come over here to claim benefits in any significant numbers at all.) That is understandable because he didnt have time to negotiate real reform, and even if he did, it wouldnt excite any of his own voters, particularly.
I think if the UK does leave any settlement negotiation will probably play a part in the French and German elections
I can imagine it being quite popular in France for example to say they will be tough in the negotiations.
I can imagine it being quite popular in France for example to say they will be tough in the negotiations.
The Germans will decide what the EU deal with the UK would look like if it voted to leave.
Britain is a serious buyer of German manufactured goods and engineering. Any country wanting to put a break on BMW, Volkswagen etc selling product into the UK would be crushed by Merkel.
Pushing the UK into selling more into growing markets outside the EU would probably help the UK in the long term anyway.
Britain is a serious buyer of German manufactured goods and engineering. Any country wanting to put a break on BMW, Volkswagen etc selling product into the UK would be crushed by Merkel.
Pushing the UK into selling more into growing markets outside the EU would probably help the UK in the long term anyway.
We need to vote to leave the EU, this will be the only opportunity we get in our lifetime. Staying in the EU would be a disaster. The amount of propaganda and scare mongering that will come out of the mainstream media over the next few months to try and stop people voting leave is going to be ridiculous and that is because the few billionaires who control the media do not want any sort of EU break up, they don't want any single nation to have its own Sovereignty or the ability to make its own decisions.
What are the benefits for remaining in the EU? Not many if any to list.
What are the benefits to leaving the EU? One, control over immigration which I think is at the top of a lot of peoples agendas at the moment, but thats far from the only benefit. On immigration; From October 2016 Turkey will be granted Visa free travel to the EU, meaning Europe's border will now end at Syria, that means the entire Turkish population can come straight to the UK no questions asked. Now im sure most people coming from Turkey would be genuine law abiding citizens but im also sure some will have traveled from Syria etc and be coming here for reasons other than to just make a better life for themselves.
We will not have to pay £350 million a week! just to be a member of the EU, this money can be spent on the NHS or housing or education etc etc. We will have control over our seas and our fishing exports, we will be able to put a stop to people just coming to the UK and draining our health service for free. We have more freedom to make trade deals with much bigger markets and economies outside the EU. We get to make our own decisions rather than being dictated to by a few men in suits over in Brussels.
Norway and Switzerland are not EU members but have no problems making trade deals, but apparently we will? If anything these two countries seem to have less problems compared to most in the EU and they arent spending 350 million a week on membership.
David Cameron claims we are safer in the EU? Well im not sure what he means by safer but if we leave EU we are still part of NATO so it doesn't affect us in terms of military backing. You will find Cameron just repeating himself saying we are better in the EU without any reasons to back it up.
This is just a short list of the reasons we need to leave but the positives for leaving far out weight the negatives IMO. David Cameron and the Media will do their utmost to try and stop us leaving by using scare tactics but these people and the people controlling them do not have our interests at heart. VOTE LEAVE. EXIT THE EU. We wont get another chance.
What are the benefits for remaining in the EU? Not many if any to list.
What are the benefits to leaving the EU? One, control over immigration which I think is at the top of a lot of peoples agendas at the moment, but thats far from the only benefit. On immigration; From October 2016 Turkey will be granted Visa free travel to the EU, meaning Europe's border will now end at Syria, that means the entire Turkish population can come straight to the UK no questions asked. Now im sure most people coming from Turkey would be genuine law abiding citizens but im also sure some will have traveled from Syria etc and be coming here for reasons other than to just make a better life for themselves.
We will not have to pay £350 million a week! just to be a member of the EU, this money can be spent on the NHS or housing or education etc etc. We will have control over our seas and our fishing exports, we will be able to put a stop to people just coming to the UK and draining our health service for free. We have more freedom to make trade deals with much bigger markets and economies outside the EU. We get to make our own decisions rather than being dictated to by a few men in suits over in Brussels.
Norway and Switzerland are not EU members but have no problems making trade deals, but apparently we will? If anything these two countries seem to have less problems compared to most in the EU and they arent spending 350 million a week on membership.
David Cameron claims we are safer in the EU? Well im not sure what he means by safer but if we leave EU we are still part of NATO so it doesn't affect us in terms of military backing. You will find Cameron just repeating himself saying we are better in the EU without any reasons to back it up.
This is just a short list of the reasons we need to leave but the positives for leaving far out weight the negatives IMO. David Cameron and the Media will do their utmost to try and stop us leaving by using scare tactics but these people and the people controlling them do not have our interests at heart. VOTE LEAVE. EXIT THE EU. We wont get another chance.
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Your holidays in Europe are so far costing about 15% more as are imports into the UK whereas the UK are receiving about 15% less for their exports . If they leave this figure could get considerably worse.
You may be interested to know Norway is actually the tenth biggest contributor to the EU and pays about two thirds as much as us (per capita) for access to the "free market" plus has to enact eu legislation but has no say in the formation of said legislation... Does that still sound like such a good deal?
So my holidays are costing 15% more in comparison to what? I thought you were going to say if we leave the EU they'll cost 15% less but you said it'll get worse
Don't forget that both Norway and Switzerland are both within the free movement of people area too!
Fair enough, I may have jumped the gun a bit with that one there. I dont think we have a lot of say in the formation of the legislation either to be honest even if its made to look like we do.
My main reason for wanting to leave the EU is that I see it as part of a much larger agenda of globalisation and taking away all power and sovereignty from nation states and therefore giving the population little to no say on the matters at hand. In the end it will become a full on dictatorship.
Is this the currency level you are quoting.
I'm voting out.
The good thing with the EU is it stops other countries from doing whatever the feck they want.
The bad thing with the EU is it stops this country from doing whatever the feck we want.
The bad thing with the EU is it stops this country from doing whatever the feck we want.
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