Interesting take on the matter from Anatole Kaletsky.
@Nick 0208 Ldn
To understand the dynamics that strongly favor an “In” vote, start with the politics. Until this month’s deal, Britain’s leaders could not seriously make the case against Brexit. After all, Prime Minister David Cameron and his government had to pretend that they would contemplate a breakup if the EU rejected their demands.
Political imbalance
Under these circumstances, it was impossible for either Labour Party politicians or business leaders to advocate an EU deal that Cameron himself was not yet ready to promote. The “Out” lobby therefore enjoyed a virtual monopoly of public attention. This situation may briefly persist, even though the EU deal has now been agreed, because Cameron has no wish to antagonize his party’s implacable Euroskeptics until it is absolutely necessary; but as the referendum approaches, this political imbalance will abruptly reverse.
One reason is Cameron’s decision to release his ministers from party discipline during the referendum campaign. Initially viewed as a sign of weakness, Cameron’s move has turned out to be a masterstroke. Having been offered the freedom to “vote your conscience” on the EU deal, most significant Conservative politicians—with the notable exceptions of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove—have come around to supporting Cameron.
As a result, the “Out” campaign has been left effectively leaderless and has already split into two rival factions—one driven mainly by anti-immigrant and protectionist sentiment, the other determined to concentrate on neoliberal economics and free trade. Even in the unlikely event that the charismatic Johnson manages to unite the squabbling political eccentrics and widely divergent ideologies backing Brexit, the London Mayor’s buffoonish image and his many contradictory comments in the past about Europe will only add to the air of chaos and frivolity surrounding the Brexit campaign.
