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Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EU?

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I don't think the SNP will call a referendum in the near future, Brexit of not. Oil prices are on the floor and that is economic argument that the SNP tried to sell Scotland's future on. The last poll on Welsh independence showed the movement had its lowest ever support, 5% IIRC. The Welsh independence question is a lot different to the SNP. Historically they negotiated inferior terms to Scotland through the Barnett formula and I believe the devolved government has performed poorly, especially regarding their NHS.

The Ireland situation will be interesting though.
 
Untied said:
If Scotland, Wales and NI vote to stay but England votes to leave, resulting in an overall leave, what do we reckon will happen? Complete shitshow? New Scottish referendum? Scottish (and others) veto on leaving?

(If leave wins this is probably how it will have happened)
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If England votes to leave but Britain votes to stay, are people as worried about the shit storm that follows that?

Scotland have a really idiosyncratic view here. If they voted to leave the UK following Brexit they would be outside a political union where 90% of their exports go and their currency would have to change also, but inside a much larger political union into which they sell relatively very little. Odd and difficult choice to make.

Would we have to start calling it Engxit though because that is an awful thought?
 
I thought this was really interesting from this week's Economist, in terms of how the settlement for Britain's exit would be drawn up.

The assumption, now confirmed by Mr Cameron, is that a vote for Brexit would trigger an application to withdraw under article 50 of the Lisbon treaty.

Article 50 provides that the EU will negotiate a new agreement with the withdrawing country over two years. That can be extended, but only by unanimous agreement. The article also specifies that, when agreeing a new deal, the EU acts without the involvement of the country that is leaving. To get a feel for the negotiating dynamic, imagine a divorce demanded unilaterally by one partner, the terms of which are fixed unilaterally by the other. It is a process that is likely to be neither harmonious nor quick—nor to yield a result that is favourable to Britain.
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http://www.economist.com/news/brief...referendum-britains-eu-membership-if-he-loses
 
Untied said:
If Scotland, Wales and NI vote to stay but England votes to leave, resulting in an overall leave, what do we reckon will happen? Complete shitshow? New Scottish referendum? Scottish (and others) veto on leaving?

(If leave wins this is probably how it will have happened)
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I think we'll see talks on a Scottish referendum at least, and it'll become a hot issue again. Whether it really gains steam or not depends on Scottish opinion though. The SNP are only going to begin a strong push for a second referendum once they can be fairly certain that a Yes vote will happen. Even if it's sitting around 50-55%, I think they'll hesitate since that only indicates a small majority. They'll want to be pushing 60%. Leaving the EU will definitely help the cause, though, because one of the main arguments of the No camp was uncertainty over joining the EU, our equal voice etc. And the SNP won't feel as bad about going back on their "once on a generation" thing afterwards.

Wales might just see a push for further powers, but I don't think there's a strong desire for independence there at the moment. UKIP are doing quite well there, so they could actually vote to leave.
 
The article is disingenuous Adebesi because while the other side will quite rightly not involve the UK post a Brexit, the UK would be the other party they are negotiating with.

If anyone really thinks that the EU gets to decide the relationship and lays down the law from on high to the UK then I disagree that that is possible. It won't happen that way because the UK isn't held to accept any old deal at that point. Ultimately it is this kind of bullshit that will push people to vote to leave. The inherent threat isn't going to work. Find some positive arguments for staying or the best thing to do is to shut up because the voting generation is still stubborn enough to call bluff.
 
I've been really interested in this question myself, and have always assumed Wales was strongly Europhile, given it is a net beneficiary of European grants. But an article on Monday or Tuesday in the FT said, surprisingly, that Wales is actually among the most Eurosceptic of all UK regions. So the issue may not come up for Wales. Tho it is bound to for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
 
Don't Kill Bill said:
The article is disingenuous Adebesi because while the other side will quite rightly not involve the UK post a Brexit, the UK would be the other party they are negotiating with.

If anyone really thinks that the EU gets to decide the relationship and lays down the law from on high to the UK then I disagree that that is possible. It won't happen that way because the UK isn't held to accept any old deal at that point. Ultimately it is this kind of bullshit that will push people to vote to leave. The inherent threat isn't going to work. Find some positive arguments for staying or the best thing to do is to shut up because the voting generation is still stubborn enough to call bluff.
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Ok well you can call bullshit on The Economist if you want to, but perhaps you can direct me to an article that explains how it will work in practice? Cause this is the only one I've seen that actually explains that.

Personally while I don't agree with the Economist on everything by any means I find it is usually quite well informed so in the absence of any other clear information on the subject I'm going to assume they've got it right.
 
Adebesi said:
I've been really interested in this question myself, and have always assumed Wales was strongly Europhile, given it is a net beneficiary of European grants. But an article on Monday or Tuesday in the FT said, surprisingly, that Wales is actually among the most Eurosceptic of all UK regions. So the issue may not come up for Wales. Tho it is bound to for Scotland and Northern Ireland.
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Think it's relatively Eurosceptic since a fair bit of support for UKIP has built up there.
 
Adebesi said:
From the same Economist article. If I could I would spike Farage with rohypnol and then tattoo this on his face:
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Studies find that immigrants are net contributors to the economy because they pay far more in taxes than they take out in benefits.
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What about the ones that don't pay tax? There are plenty of those...some manual workers, some store/shop workers, various labouring jobs etc. They get paid cash in hand, don't pay tax, may not pay council tax and use the NHS when they need to.
 
Red Defence said:
What about the ones that don't pay tax? There are plenty of those...some manual workers, some store/shop workers, various labouring jobs etc. They get paid cash in hand, don't pay tax, may not pay council tax and use the NHS when they need to.
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It's talking about immigrants as a whole. Obviously it would be different for any arbitrarily selected subset of the group, such as those that don't pay tax.
 
Adebesi said:
It's talking about immigrants as a whole. Obviously it would be different for any arbitrarily selected subset of the group, such as those that don't pay tax.
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Let's ban all business because Google.
 
Red Defence said:
Well it can't talk about immigrants as a whole if it doesn't know how many are paid cash, can it?
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Reasonably accurate estimates can be made about how many immigrants are paid cash in hand, and what they are paid on average. In the same way as people who want to leave Europe make estimates about the number of people in the country illegally, despite them not being officially counted.
 
Adebesi said:
Reasonably accurate estimates can be made about how many immigrants are paid cash in hand, and what they are paid on average. In the same way as people who want to leave Europe make estimates about the number of people in the country illegally, despite them not being officially counted.
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No they can't. They've no idea how many are paid cash in hand.
 
Studies find both ways depending on who funded them and what costs you count and assumptions behind the figures etc. There is no consensus you chose which study you want to believe and you run with it. I don't think we will ever know one way or the other.
 
Adebesi said:
From the same Economist article. If I could I would spike Farage with rohypnol and then tattoo this on his face:

Studies find that immigrants are net contributors to the economy because they pay far more in taxes than they take out in benefits.
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That's a Mark Twain statistic. It ignores the fact that if immigrants didn't exist, non-immigrants would have those jobs and be paying the same taxes; and not be forced on benefits because the economy doesn't generate sufficient jobs to fully employ both migrants and natives.

The whole economy, as distinct from employers, whose interests are not identical with the larger economy, since they're not required to house migrants or pay welfare to those rendered unemployed by their presence, is only likely to benefit, if at all, in a full employment situation. And that ignores the often highly disruptive, social impact of immigration.

The economist is a socially liberal magazine which reflects the interests of the business community. It's not surprising it takes that line.
 
Untied said:
If Scotland, Wales and NI vote to stay but England votes to leave, resulting in an overall leave, what do we reckon will happen? Complete shitshow? New Scottish referendum? Scottish (and others) veto on leaving?

(If leave wins this is probably how it will have happened)
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Yes to all of that basically.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
I don't think the SNP will call a referendum in the near future, Brexit of not. Oil prices are on the floor and that is economic argument that the SNP tried to sell Scotland's future on. The last poll on Welsh independence showed the movement had its lowest ever support, 5% IIRC. The Welsh independence question is a lot different to the SNP. Historically they negotiated inferior terms to Scotland through the Barnett formula and I believe the devolved government has performed poorly, especially regarding their NHS.

The Ireland situation will be interesting though.
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North Sea Oil is a tool the SNP use. They aren't going to change their view points even if it's now worthless
 
rcoobc said:
North Sea Oil is a tool the SNP use. They aren't going to change their view points even if it's now worthless
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My point is that it makes selling an out vote a lot harder for them, thus the SNP would be unwise to call a referendum in the near future. They have already stated that it won't be part of their next manifesto anyway.

Regarding Mervin King's point on business leaders advising against a Brexit: all the City is bothered about is maintaining stability in the short term to keep the gravy train on track. It has no concern for the medium or long term, they are constantly winging it to maxmise their earnings. A Brexit means short term pain for them.
 
Classical Mechanic said:
If you are concerned or affected by that short term pain then vote remain. I don't believe that we will remain in the economic doldrums for too long. Do you?
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Yeah I think we are going to struggle for quite some time to come in relative terms to most of the other top ten economies... I happen to think we will struggle more if we come out but either way I don't anticipate a good decade overall (though the sectors I work in I think will be fairly buoyant as our infrastructure is screwed and about to break down completely and will take decades to bring to a states of slightly screwed and limping along)
 
sun_tzu said:
And their investors... You know people with things like pension funds and isas.
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A modicum of uncertainty to bring about a greater prosperity.

Choosing to remain carries its own costs for the individual: the EU has been attempting to increase the number of VAT applicable goods for years, with women and parents at risk in the current review; the organisations has also sought to increase budgetary contributions quite irrespective of the economic climate. But such is the character of laudable and most progressive European Union.
 
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Don't Kill Bill said:
You seem pretty certain that if we stay in the EU Britain is doomed anyway.
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Relative to China usa japan Brazil India and Russia (presuming sanctions are temporary) then yeah I do... But as I say I think we will fare a lot better being part of the eu than thinking we will still be a top 5 economy in our own right within a decade
 
Voting in essentially means giving up any control of our own country. Voting out runs the risk of not having the same trade and deals as if we were in.

I say, stop being pussies and back ourselves to be able to work on our own and become more prosperous.
 
Gol123 said:
Voting in essentially means giving up any control of our own country. Voting out runs the risk of not having the same trade and deals as if we were in.

I say, stop being pussies and back ourselves to be able to work on our own and become more prosperous.
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It doesn't mean that, essentially, metaphorically, literally, hallucinogenically or otherwise.
 
Ubik said:
It doesn't mean that, essentially, metaphorically, literally, hallucinogenically or otherwise.
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It kinda does. We cant control our borders, cant control our trade within the EU cant control who we bail out and cant control how our people can live in the country. We lose the ability to run our country in a way that is beneficial to our country. The problem is because the country is one of the better in the EU economically, we are constantly getting the shit end of the straw.

Its shitty not having complete control over yourself. Its like having somebody controlling your hands and legs. The EU control the UK's arms and legs.
 
Gol123 said:
It kinda does. We cant control our borders, cant control our trade within the EU cant control who we bail out and cant control how our people can live in the country. We lose the ability to run our country in a way that is beneficial to our country. The problem is because the country is one of the better in the EU economically, we are constantly getting the shit end of the straw.

Its shitty not having complete control over yourself. Its like having somebody controlling your hands and legs. The EU control the UK's arms and legs.
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Good grief.
 
Ubik said:
Good grief.
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Vote to stay in. Don't complain when the EU take full advantage of it, knowing that a referendum is unlikely to happen any time soon again and royally shaft us over in every possible way.
 
Adebesi said:
@sun_tzu what do you see as being the catalyst for the turnaround in Brazil and Russia? They're both having a nightmare.
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Russia I see the sanctions being lifted over the next decade, oil prices improving from their current low and better infrastructure (pipelines etc) linking them into the Chinese market
Brazil I'd say education and age demographics... Ie a lot more young and relatively well educated people entering the workforce
 
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