Although I'm in the remain camp I see it going to a leave vote. I think a lot of unemployed will vote Leave but I'm just making an assumption there, I just feel the older generation is voting leave based on who I've asked, and I think the vast amount of people in unemployment are also voting that.
EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.
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I think theres going to be about 2 points in it either way. Would love to be as confident as some on here.
Yeah I'm quite worried as well. I'd like to be confident but I fear I live in a bubble in London and there's a strong feeling of wanting to hit back against the establishment. Worst move ever as Boris and Gove are "establishment" to a tee.
Of course it has. Her murder, Soros's currency warning and the Premier League managers backing has been broadly credited with the eight point swing back to remain sat-mon.
Let's hope those with a predilection for antidisestablishmentarianism come out to vote then!
Never thought I'd get the chance to use that word in a sentence.
The lack of a plan and who is in leadership to move forward is the biggest issue for me, the world should be a global market yet, everything else is global yet it's a "make britain great" mentality when there simply won't be a great britain or united kingdom soon.
Lack of a plan is the main reason I'm not voting Leave. However let's be honest most people are morons and can be fickle as feck, they'd rather eat up Boris saying "Let's have our own Independence day" than ask him what the heck is he going to do post-brexit.
The Euro is not an integral part of the EU. The EU has no say on the ECB or Euro. Most EU members aren't in the Eurozone. They are separate. Though it would be fair to say that the EU is an integral part of the Eurozone if you insist. I think Greece should't have been part of the Eurozone, I could have told you that in 1995. But the EU is not to blame for Greece. You could blame the Eurozone, but the Greeks themselves are to blame. Don't forget the Eurozone members, and in particular Germany, have spent billions & billions ofvtheir tax payers money bailing the Greeks out.
As for Euro being a failing currency, it actually works well for some countries, like Germany or Holland, and it certainly isn't failing. Personally I was against the Euro from the start because of certain economies in the Eurozone so I'm no Euro fan.
But more over, none of this has anything to do with tomorrow's referendum. It is not a referendum on what the Uk thinks of the Euro.
If there was a plan that was legible and there was a 10 year, or 20 year plan I'd vote leave, but there's not. Finland have a committee for the future, always looking forward. England is too busy fixing problems from 50 years ago.
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PL managers backing?
No exit polls, results will trickle out between 12:30am and 7am Friday morning, it should be pretty much decided not long after 4am.
There will be people analyzing every single constituency result and what it indicates for the whole thing. Ie Sunderland will be the first out and it is expected to be a narrowish leave at around 53%, how reality differs from that may give an indication of things to come elsewhere... Or it may not
Everyone I speak to in Stoke seems to be voting out, and there was a video to the same effect from The Guardian recently. Whether it's unemployed, warehouse workers or the upper class. At my work in Stafford it's a bit better (50/50) but I think that's more to do with working in a digital marketing firm where everyone is under 30 and it's very diverse with lots of EU nationals. I know that this incredibly minute anecdotal sample size means shit all but it's definitely adding to my nerves.
I'm in London for work tomorrow so interested to see what the vibe is.
Is there a certain number that need to be reached for either side to win, e.g. if Remain gets 50.1% and Leave 49.9% then will that count as a win?
Basically whichever gets more votes. No certain number needed.
Be like winning on penalties
Yeah, I was surprised, but the respected economist Anatole Kaletsky reckoned that the PL mangers saying remain helped. We might never have had O'Shea or Jordi!
The 10% tariff might have put us off Di Maria mind
People I've spoke to is the same like 80% leave, 20% remain, but I feel Scotland, Wales, and N Ireland will make up majority of Remain.
Going for
57% Remain
43% Leave
Polls saying it will be close, but then look at the number of undecideds in the polls (around 10%). Most of those undecideds will go for the remain camp, as they go for the safe choice/ status quo.
57% Remain
43% Leave
Polls saying it will be close, but then look at the number of undecideds in the polls (around 10%). Most of those undecideds will go for the remain camp, as they go for the safe choice/ status quo.
The "Brexit" bloke at Brighton station earlier looked thoroughly dissatisfied with life, if that's any indication.
Live in London and no one that I know of is for Leave at least not from an outspoken perspective. But I can admit I live in a bubble in that respect compared to a lot of other people.
It feels like the night before a cup final. I'm crapping it thinking about some of stuff I've heard from the public.
Did anyone watch that program on C4 "Power-monkeys 
Wish I had your confidence in Remain. However I honestly don't think Remain will take the lion share of the undecideds.
The people that I know that claim to be undecided - I suspect are voting Leave.
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is there a link to an article or anything?
48-52 in favour of leave IMO
I see the leave posters and stuff all over the place in my area, I think I'll be abstaining but I would vote remain
I see the leave posters and stuff all over the place in my area, I think I'll be abstaining but I would vote remain
Thankfully you arent Nate Silver. Hope you are wrong.
With most polling, pushing the undecideds to make a decision has had them mainly plumping for Remain (think one analysis a few days ago had this occurring by a 2-1 margin). Also of interest is that when people have specifically looked for people that are harder to poll, due to work or whatnot, it's boosted the Remain lead by a couple of points. Leave voters tend to be more enthusiastic, but turnout is also projected to be high. Rise in the last week (by 10 points) of people thinking leaving will hurt them financially.
With something so close it still could go either way, but the balance of the evidence is good for Remain thus far.
I live in typical middle class Surrey and down here in our town centre there was a big Brexit stall with about a dozen people manning it, carrying placards, being very vocal (bordering on the aggressive) and handing out flyers and they were getting honks and cheers from passing cars. And by cars I mean men in white vans.
On the opposite corner was one white haired, quiet elderly lady handing out Remain flyers. She was being completely ignored.
Make of that what you will.
On the opposite corner was one white haired, quiet elderly lady handing out Remain flyers. She was being completely ignored.
Make of that what you will.
I don't have much confidence in them, but those undecideds will play it safe. Its human nature to do so.
You predict 8 points lead for LEAVE.
Well I hope you are right and you do have strong evidence to back you up. I'm just going by the fact that anyone that I've talked to who claims to be undecided will probably vote Leave as they spend too long complaining about Remain's Scaremongering (completely ignoring the amount from Leave). Also unlike most years I feel like there is a strong anti-establishment feeling amongst the world which could also have an impact.
Not sure why it would, it's not legally binding anyway.
If this whole thing had done something... it's a) made me fairly happy with the people I have on Facebook and b) pretty alarmed at the idiocy of quite a lot of other people.
Sadly I doubt it. Living in Brighton is a remain bubble, I have found.
That the moderate quiet majority will vote remain?
Here is the Daily note from Gavekal Research.
Brexit Tail Wags The Dog — by Anatole Kaletsky
If anyone still doubted the claim expressed here on May 25 that politics is now driving global financial markets far more than economics (see The Brexit Vote As Harbinger Of A Populist Age, Or Not), those doubts should have been dispelled by Monday’s trading. From the moment that currency trading started in the New Zealand morning, through the Nikkei and Hang Seng openings in Asia, to the main forex business in London and finally the stock markets on Wall Street, the dominant trends all seemed to be connected with polling for Britain’s EU referendum on Thursday, and speculation about what additional news events might influence the vote.
As it happened, all the news since Friday’s close was favorable to the Remain camp: first the neo-Nazi madman who on Thursday murdered Jo Cox, a popular pro-Europe member of the British Parliament, decided to shout “death to traitors, freedom for Britain” at the judge in his first court hearing. Then pollsters detected a modest shift in favor of Remain even in the surveys conducted before the Cox assassination. Next, a collective statement in support of EU membership was issued by the Premier League football clubs. Finally, late on Monday, George Soros took over media headlines with a powerful warning that sterling would collapse by -20% to -30% after a Leave vote, resulting in the pound being worth about one euro—“a method of joining the euro that nobody in Britain would want.”
This full-scale escalation of the rhetorical technique denounced as “Project Fear” by the Brexit camp seemed to be working, at least in the market’s view. The pound experienced its biggest one-day gain since the end of the 2008 crisis; the Brexit odds in betting markets collapsed from 38% to 25%; and risk assets of all kinds, from equities to commodity prices, followed sterling higher all over the world. And Soros’s prediction that the pound would either rebound to above US$1.50 or slump to around US$1.15, depending on the outcome of Thursday’s vote, accorded with the calculations presented here two months ago (see The Case For Sterling), and with the three-to-one ratio of Remain-to-Leave probabilities shown in betting markets by Monday night.
There seem to be three possible reasons for this tail-wags-the-dog market behavior, discussed in several of our recent pieces. A first and obvious explanation for the sudden importance attached to British politics by all global markets is the possibility that a vote to leave the EU by Britain would trigger a chain reaction, reviving the euro crisis, and possibly risking a chaotic breakup of the entire EU.
A second explanation is the risk of the financial crisis and recession in Britain predicted by Soros turning into a renewed banking crisis that spreads, as in 2008, to banks in other European countries and around the world. A third possible reason is the political contagion effect discussed here last week (see Populism And A New Financial Crisis): a Leave win in Britain would increase the perceived odds of Donald Trump becoming US President and of anti-establishment parties winning elections in Italy, Germany or France in the coming months. Whatever the rights or wrongs of anti-elitist politics and the grievances it may or may not reflect, there can be little doubt about the preference of financial markets. Just as turkeys don’t vote for Christmas, it is hard to see how anti-elitist populism could be welcomed by financial markets that are dominated by financial and business elites.
It'll be a relatively comfortable Remain here, 65% at most optimistic, and just under 60% at least optimistic.
It's really bizarre though as to how little talk there's been about this. The indy referendum was obviously bigger for us from a Scottish point of view, but while I never expected the level of discussion to hit that level, the sheer lack of interest has been weird to the point where I've almost forgotten this is happening. This is arguably bigger than a standard general election, yet the extent to which I've seen campaigning has been each side (once each) just kicking around with a stall in the town centre, conveniently placed exactly around 30 metres away from a Subway and Burger King.
Could be that the foregone conclusion of the Scottish result is causing that. The SNP are obviously dominant up here, which means Scotland doesn't have too many significant Leave voices: David Coburn is close to the most prominent one I can think of, with Jim Sillars maybe beating him out on that front.
It's been a bit of a non-debate here.
Nate Silver was wrong on the 2015 GE. I hope I'm wrong too, but all I see is pro Brexit stuff everywhere and in big numbers.
See replies to this for example.
It's an interesting one. Often there are two general trends when it comes to votes/referendums. The status quo will tend to benefit from undecided voters, and older people turn out in impressive numbers. On this one though, the two are generally in opposite fields; remain is the status quo, yet older people are the ones voting Leave in greater numbers.
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