EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EU?


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The state of the media in this country when 'David Beckham backs Remain' is fecking front page news on the BBC.

The Guardian in their business's live blog has the words "Investors are also digesting the news that David Beckham has backed the remain campaign".

Now I'd like to think that was written in jest but their whole reporting on market fluctuations has been somewhat hysterical. Even today they had markets going down being blamed on Brexit fears while also reporting the Pound was increasing because of remain momentum.
 
Cite evidence for this or it's once again a vague statement devoid of context. And address the other points I raised, ignoring them doesn't make them go away. This area is not vague and uncertain at all, again the fact that you keep saying that doesn't make it true. The positives are uncertain, the negatives are very well known possibilities.

The UK bought nearly a million cars from Germany. Britain is the fifth largest customer.
As for you being certain, it is impossible to be certain, because we do not know what negotiations will be drawn up. Some trade negotiations with EU countries may involve agreements be in place like free movement, and who knows what else. It's not possible to say how certain things will be. If you think it is, you've watched too many videos.
 
It didn't start in 2001. It was in 2001 that America expressed a desire to trade with Australia. Negotiations began in April 2003, and we're signed off in January 2004.

Bush would never have signaled his intent publically had there not been any low-level diplomatic discussions going on in the background, as it weakens the US's negotiating position. Formal negotiations may have started in 2003, but basic discussions - necessary discussions nevertheless - happened before that.

Consider this - right now, the UK is probably having low-level discussions with diplomats around the world to get the basis of the trade deal negotiations just in case the UK votes Leave.

Much of the trade dynamics are already in place, and the UK is a major buyer and customer. The EU also needs us to trade.
There will be two years to set up agreements, but it's this aspect of our leaving that is most uncertain.
No, watch the video, as suggested. 10 years is the average.

The EU doesn't "need" us. Yes, the EU would like to trade with us, but considering outside the EU, the UK will be a competitor, it makes sense that they would not do it at any cost. 44% of our exports go to the EU - we need the trade deal a lot more than they need us.

Much of the trade dynamics are in place, true, but many of them go through EU bodies (imagine arbitration for disputes, for example), which we would no longer have any right to use. They are also underpinned by EU laws - which we could retain, although that sort of defeats the purpose of leaving. The EU, for example, would seek to see how our safety guidelines may diverge from the EU's in the future (after all, if we want to sell stuff to the EU, we need to comply with their regulations) - that would never occur within the EU. This additional trust allows the EU to impose zero tariffs amongst members - a British product is effectively a French or German product within the EU.
 
What's more, Gove has responded to the proclaimed voting intentions of well-known economics expert David Beckham.
 
Well he did say people are fed up of experts.

So glad the John Oliver thing reminded me about that... surely one of the best (ridiculous) things a prominent politician has said in years... and there's stiff competition.
 
Breaking: Jason McAteer backs the Lib Dems.
 
Breaking: Jason McAteer backs the Lib Dems.
Roubini predicted the credit crunch in great detail tbf. Guess you can dine on that sort of call for years.
 
So glad the John Oliver thing reminded me about that... surely one of the best (ridiculous) things a prominent politician has said in years... and there's stiff competition.
Gove has a history of this, though. Take free schools. The fact that anyone can become a teacher or run a school - who cares about qualifications or credentials?

I laughed when he said that it was British students who were anti-knowledge, happy with low standards. It's the ruling elite that have contempt for knowledge, with Labour dismissing David Nutt, Conservatives gagging scientists who contradict government policy, raising tuition fees, free schools, and idiots like this guy and this guy who believe in alternative medicine while serving as advisors to science and medicine.

So yes, maybe experts are wrong - but usually only in hindsight. Everyone becomes an expert with the benefit of hindsight. And quite often, like bailing out banks during a financial crisis, there are no "right" decisions - only "least-worst". It could have been better - but it could have been worse.
 
Plus the notion that because 1 or 2 experts may have messed up in the past means that no experts opinion is worth anything is one of the stupidest things I've ever heard in my life. There's no point in us going to university guys, because knowing your subject is completely overrated. Who'd have thought. Experts opinion is no longer relevant.
 
I'm sorry but you're misunderstanding fundamentals. We are not a major EU buyer. We do not buy from the EU. The EU does not need us to trade. We do not ship boxes with 'The EU' written as the recipient on the label. We ship to individual countries within the EU. We ship to some, we do not ship to others. The countries that we do purchase from, it comes to about 10% of that countries exports. If we leave the EU, 'the EU' does not need to make back any trade. Country A needs to make back 10% of its exports. Country B needs to make back 10% of its exports. Countries C, D and E could not give less of a shit as they do not trade with us at all. Country F needs to make back 10% of its exports. Etc. Understanding this is key. Meanwhile we have to replace 45% of our current exports. Can you see who is the more desperate party here? Your insistence that we are a major party to the EU who cannot survive without is is simply false. We lose more by leaving than EU countries lose by us leaving.

When it comes to negotiating a trade deal, countries A, B, C, D, E and F all need to agree to the deal before it can come into place. Countries C, D and E do not trade with us and must be given an incentive to sign a deal that gives us favourable treatment. They can reject any deal they see fit. They couldn't care less about us, we have no impact on them. We have much, much, much more to replace if we leave than the EU does. This gives them the stronger hand and the power in the discussion which means we accept unfavourable terms to get a quick deal or we reject deal after deal like Switzerland did, suffering economically in the meantime for years until we're forced to take back the things we left to give up in the first place.


Just repeating this in the hope it will finally sink in with @vidic blood & sand - no non-EU countries have negotiated tariff-free unrestricted trade with the EU without contributing to the EU budget and allowing unlimited EU migration. With an OUT vote we will will end up with the worst of both worlds.

Switzerland's agreement also requires the free movement of people but has less access for the services industry, a vital part of the UK's economy. Currently, 52 countries are covered by existing EU trade deals. If the UK left the EU and wanted to retain preferential access to the markets of these countries, it would have to renegotiate trade deals with ALL of them. Some could take longer than others and it would not be up to the UK only, but also to the other countries which would base their negotiating positions on their own interests. All 28 EU member states have access to the "single market". This means there are no tariffs, quotas or taxes on trade and the free movement of goods, services, capital and people. If the UK voted to leave the EU, it would have to negotiate a new trade deal with it.

Madness to vote Leave!
 
Rio weighs in.

No-one has the right to tell anyone how to vote. Voting is personal, and we all have different past experiences, current circumstances and hopes for the future. But the beauty of a democracy is that we all have the right to vote. We should use it. Because we’re lucky to live in a country where regardless of who you are – rich or poor, black or white, Manchester United or Man City – we can get out there on Thursday and have our say. Every vote is equal, and each one really matters.

Sometimes democracy makes us angry. It pushes us to extremes, especially in a referendum like this that makes everyone pretend things are black and white, when they’re probably not. But the blessing to express yourself – and to disagree respectfully – is one we should cherish. Especially when the outcome will affect everyone so much.

Thursday will be the first time I’ve ever been motivated to vote in an election. That’s how seriously I’m taking this. Because the question about our future in Europe isn’t about Conservative versus Labour; it’s not about which bunch of politicians we want running the country. It’s much bigger than that. It’s not about the next five years; it’s about the next fifty. Probably even longer. It’s about the sort of country our kids are going to grow up in, and how the rest of the world will look at Britain from now on. And from all I’ve heard on both sides of this debate, I think our country is at a pretty important fork in the road, and the decision we make could take us to very different places.

As for me – for what it’s worth – I am for remaining part of the EU. Some people say this is the unpatriotic choice – that being part of the EU waters down our national identity. To that, I say: come off it. One of the proudest moments of my life was playing for and captaining England – in a shirt I was privileged to wear 81 times. You won’t find many people more patriotic than me – more proud of what this country is about and what we stand for. And for me, there are three simple reasons why, on balance, I think we should remain.

The first is my kids. I’ve got three. I teach them that they can achieve anything – that they should dream big. And a lot of the things I’ve heard in this referendum tells me that there’ll be less opportunity for them if we’re out there on our own, pulling up the drawbridge to the rest of the world. I think other countries will just do the same to us. And the rest of the EU is hardly going to give us a great deal for walking out on them, are they? They’ll want to send a message to other countries not to leave as well. It’s just common sense. That means sorting out our new relationship with Europe could take years and years. I don’t know about you, but I think most people have got plans for the next few years. We want to get stuff done; we don’t want to be messing about and having endless Europe discussions. None of that is going to make my kids’ futures brighter; it’ll just make their world smaller. I don’t want that for them.

The second reason is that I think that politics is a team game. I worked for the greatest manager of all time. Sir Alex Ferguson always taught us that no individual is bigger than the team; that just because we played for Man United – a massive, famous club – didn’t mean we could swan around doing our own thing. We had to work even harder, and be even more of a team, to get where we wanted to be. And I think Europe is a bit like that. Britain is an amazing country, but we’ll achieve much more if we’re a team player – working with others to get things done. I am a big believer in needing to work with our friends and neighbours in Europe if we want to make a change we and our children can be proud of. The sort of things young people care about: tackling climate change, helping refugees, fighting disease in Africa – they can only get fixed if we all work together. So we shouldn’t cut off our nose to spite our face by walking away.

The third reason is the kind of country I want us to be. I’ve got a bit of a unique perspective on this. I’ve seen racism in football and I’ve spoken out about the racism my family and I experienced growing up in London in the 1980s. A lot has changed for the better – don’t get me wrong. But in this campaign, to tell you the truth, I haven’t liked what I’ve seen. I think all the focus on immigration has been a real shame. I don’t want Britain to become an angry and mean-spirited country. I think there’s a danger that, if Leave wins, it’ll be an endorsement of the idea that it’s OK to blame all our problems on foreigners. The England football team used to do that. And it didn’t help us play any better. Then we started learning from the foreign players we’d brought to the Premier League, and we improved ourselves. So let’s remember: Europeans make a really important contribution to our country, and most of our problems are actually home-grown.

That’s just my two cents’ worth. If we do vote to remain, I think we’ve got to use this massive moment in time to make our country better and bring everyone together again. But in the end, it’s your decision. And my main message is: whatever you do, get out there and have your say on Thursday. Because the kind of Britain we wake up in on Friday – and every day after that – depends on us all getting out there and ‪#‎voting‬.
 
Thought is was a good speech by Camron. A message especially for the older generation. Even if you want Brexit, think about your children and grandchildren.
 
. It's going to be close though: @sun_tzu is winning his grand.
Saw one poll today suggesting 56% remain (when only those who said they would definitely vote were included) - thats the most worring poll i have seen to date ref my bet - but as I want us to stay I'd still be fairly happy if remain smashed it with 60%+ (pretty annoyed if leave managed that though)
 
Saw one poll today suggesting 56% remain (when only those who said they would definitely vote were included) - thats the most worring poll i have seen to date ref my bet - but as I want us to stay I'd still be fairly happy if remain smashed it with 60%+ (pretty annoyed if leave managed that though)

I think it will be over 60%. The undecided vote is still a large one and statistically they will vote safely.
 
I think it will be over 60%. The undecided vote is still a large one and statistically they will vote safely.
I think it will be 70-80% tbh.
 
I thinks its one of those votes that won't be close at the end of the day.
 
It's actually an interesting point that no ones been talking about. What happens to Gove, Johnson and Farage is remain wins?

Farage will carry on like a turd that won't flush, that much is obvious. But it seriously dents Johnson and Gove's credibility doesn't it? Going into this debate all of the Leave MP's (and I include IDS) had approval ratings probably best described as utterly abysmal and there's no chance that this campaign will have improved them, so surely a life on the back benches beckons if Remain wins?
Not sure I quite agree. Even including the referendum, the person who's come out of 2016 the worst (in terms of their reputation) has to be Osborne, aka the main rival for Boris/ Gove in the Tory Leadership contest. And it is the Conservative membership who vote for the next Leader, surely also meaning the next Prime Minister. And that's a tiny, tiny proportion of people, less than 150,000, the majority of whom are older, more right-wing, and more likely to vote out than the general population. No matter if Leave loses on Thursday, Boris has positioned himself as the leading alternative figure to Cameron/ Osborne, and has to be seen as our most likely next PM as a result...

Urgh. :(
 
If we vote to remain, what becomes of Farage? Please don't tell me that man will still be ghosting around.
 
Not sure I quite agree. Even including the referendum, the person who's come out of 2016 the worst (in terms of their reputation) has to be Osborne, aka the main rival for Boris/ Gove in the Tory Leadership contest. And it is the Conservative membership who vote for the next Leader, surely also meaning the next Prime Minister. And that's a tiny, tiny proportion of people, less than 150,000, the majority of whom are older, more right-wing, and more likely to vote out than the general population. No matter if Leave loses on Thursday, Boris has positioned himself as the leading alternative figure to Cameron/ Osborne, and has to be seen as our most likely next PM as a result...

Urgh. :(
Boris as PM. And we laugh at the Yanks.
 
This is utterly ridiculous. The country has gone nuts.


This is a worry for me. The results of the referendum are going to be hugely revealing, because you get the impression that large portions of society are voting as mostly homogeneous blocks - the far right, the far left, older voters, young graduates, the young working class, Labour voters, Conservatives pre-2005 - I imagine that most/ all of those groups will vote one way or the other by a huge majority (70+%). I've heard a few people from both sides say that they know absolutely no-one voting for remain/ leave, which is going to cause huge resentments in wider society if people buy into, and stick with this 'us v them' mentality after the referendum.
 
My take is...

Immigration: We have one of the highest minimum wages in Europe. We will attract ever greater numbers from within the EU seeking low wage work. The competition to fill those roles will intensify. Many at the low end of the wage spectrum will feel the need to work harder and longer at tougher jobs. More low paid hard working people will inevitably put more strain on the health service, housing, transport, etc., etc.. That would be OK if those workers are employed in expanding those services - not so good if they are employed in zero hours contracts in the distribution and service industries we see them employed in currently. Corbyn's concern is that these people will be taken advantage of if we leave the EU, as right-wing politicians in the UK will not safeguard workers' rights but that the EU will. That assumes that the UK will stay with a right wing government and the EU will remain more committed (than the UK) to protecting the rights of the disadvantaged. Unlikely in the long term, imo. We could restrict immigration to a points-based system similar to Australia's to attract more professional, qualified, experienced, high earners. We could only decide things like this without interference from Brussells.

Finance: We are one of the few net contributors to the EU (we give more than we get back). Brussells tells us what we must do with the money we get back. We are suffering austerity and need more control over our own money.

Trade: Many countries outside of Europe are expanding their economies (India, China and Brazil, among others) and would like to trade with us directly, rather than as part of he EU. Countries in the EU see us as vitally important trading partners. That won't change if we leave - but the deals will have to be renegotiated.

Sorry. Gotta go to work...
 
If we vote to remain, what becomes of Farage? Please don't tell me that man will still be ghosting around.
Either;

a) Cameron takes back control of the Conversative party, hugely increasing Farage's role as the leading Brexit figure in a position of power in the coming years, and UKIP likely get a huge bump in the polls in 2020. Similar (though not completely) effect to the SNP's success after the Scottish Referendum.

b) Boris becomes our next PM, and Farage doesn't hold the above position. UKIP probably then loses some voters to the Conservative party, but potentially gains some legitimacy? Unclear how this would play out...
 
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