EU Referendum | UK residents vote today.

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the EU?


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I think I'm set on stay. This is basically a gamble, the thing is you only tend to take bigger gambles based on bigger rewards, and all I can see here is we'll be lucky to even cover where we stand now.

So if there's nothing in it for the future, why take a risk? Why gamble just to break even? I've read and followed as much as I can stomach over the past few weeks and I just don't get what we are supposed to gain. Unless I've utterly missed it of course and someone wants to explain to me what the reward is vs the risk.
 
Bet Leave are telling the world people we can have one immediately.

Yes in Bongo Bongo and in the real world the problem is that all the deals the Uk has at the moment are as being part of the EU - if they leave completely then normally every single deal should have to re-negotiated, this would take forever
 
There's no way that will happen. It requires free movement of EU nationals which the leave campaign have categorically rejected.
That's what a lot of Leave voters don't understand. We would most certainly have to allow free movement of we want to remain in the free market. Even the rebate we currently pay wouldn't change if we vote to leave.
The amount of lies being banded around is absolutely astonishing and it is disappointing seeing British people being fooled.
 
I do understand how it works but I firmly believe that if we vote Leave then things within the EU will have to change. They have no choice but to change or there may be other countries who decide to hold a referendum and end up Leaving.
When other countries see how bad we would be struggling to agree a deal with the EU and eventually still having to accept free movement to stay within the free market, they will not bother holding referendums.
 
When other countries see how bad we would be struggling to agree a deal with the EU and eventually still having to accept free movement to stay within the free market, they will not bother holding referendums.

The thing is, they already saw this happen with economies better run than ours. The view that we are somehow going to be better at it is naive/arrogant.
 
There's no way that will happen. It requires free movement of EU nationals which the leave campaign have categorically rejected.

I think there's enough tories in the leave campaign who would vote in favour of this route. Boris and Farage can say what they like but they won't be given a mandate to prevent single market membership and they'd need significant backing.

As I posted early if we join EFTA we have the option of an emergency brake. If we'd have got that in Cameron's phony reform renegotiation the country would be voting remain.

If it's not Cameron attempting to push it through it'll be Labour.
 
The thing is, they already saw this happen with economies better run than ours. The view that we are somehow going to be better at it is naive/arrogant.
I have a somewhat controversial view of where this view comes from.
I'm Nigerian (just got my approval to become a British citizen) the rest of my family were born here. I think there still some tiny fragments of colonial mentality in some Brits. A delusion of grandeur. Britain is a great country, (that's why I wanted to be a citizen) but some are under the impression the UK can get what it wants, it can make business anywhere, everyone is desperate to be associated with us.
There is literally no way the EU would agree to us being in the free market while refusing free movement. The Eastern bloc will never agree to it. If we leave, they are one of the main reasons we would have left and they would see it that way. The EU as a whole, would be desperate to make an example of us for putting their economies at risk.
Even if giving Britain special treatment made sense economically, it will never fly politically.
We would literally have to lobby every single member state. That would take many years. Even European countries that aren't in the EU are telling us, leaving is a bad idea.
 
I think there's enough tories in the leave campaign who would vote in favour of this route. Boris and Farage can say what they like but they won't be given a mandate to prevent single market membership and they'd need significant backing.

As I posted early if we join EFTA we have the option of an emergency brake. If we'd have got that in Cameron's phony reform renegotiation the country would be voting remain.

I'm pretty convinced the country will vote remain anyway, but I don't share your optimism with anything to do with the Tories. Immigration is the stick they're using to hit the voters with, there's no way they will cede free movement of EU nationals when their entire debate has been about stopping this. Not to mention there is no such thing as an emergency brake on EU immigration. I feel like this is misunderstood. The brake that exists relates to social security and benefits being paid out - not to do with stopping immigrants from coming over. This brake on immigration does not exist.

On top of that, in order to invoke the brake on benefit payments to EU migrants you have to satisfy criteria, like there being a serious problem having a serious impact on our country that is unlikely to change in the near future. Since there isn't, it would take something of a much higher magnitude to even give us the ability to invoke the brake and that isn't going to fly with the people up in arms about immigration because it means they can't do anything right now about immigration, which defeats the object of what they're trying to do.
 
Tories would be committing political suicide if the country votes to leave and they accept free movement.
 
I'm utterly opposed to Leaving

In no particular order

- there is absolutely no evidence of what we'll gain, pure fantasy being thrown around
- the tactics and people used by the Brexit campaign would not be who I would want to be associating my vote with. Its basically a bunch of right wingers
- I believe in an equal society, I believe in freedom for me and my children. I see a lot of people voting for themselves but very few saying "I need to think of my childrens future". The Leave campaign if successful is going to leave the UK a simmering hotbed of racism, zenophobic undertones and downright mistrust of anyone new.
- How can anyone trust a word that comes out of BJ or NF's mouths?
- will still have to pay a 'subscription fee' to trade with Europe even if we leave.
- will probably have to agree to deals on immigration etc anyway in any deals made
- the balance of peace in NI could rest on whether the physical borders go up again between North and South
- Scotland will most likely bide their time and leave UK once things settle down
- argument about NHS is nonsense - have you seen that TV ad? what a bunch of fantasy. NHS cannot be sustained, whether we stay or go. It needs a radical rethink.
- I saw one article today that says "Great Britain" wants to become "Little England". This is driven by English pols, using nationalism as their beating drum, its not a UK exit from Europe, its a UK breakup if it goes through

All I see is a load of my older relatives on FB being wound up to vote to leave based on nothing more than patriotism. That will ultimately get us nowhere as its built on bad foundations.

meh I could go on and on.
 
I'm utterly opposed to Leaving

In no particular order

- there is absolutely no evidence of what we'll gain, pure fantasy being thrown around
- the tactics and people used by the Brexit campaign would not be who I would want to be associating my vote with. Its basically a bunch of right wingers
- I believe in an equal society, I believe in freedom for me and my children. I see a lot of people voting for themselves but very few saying "I need to think of my childrens future". The Leave campaign if successful is going to leave the UK a simmering hotbed of racism, zenophobic undertones and downright mistrust of anyone new.
- How can anyone trust a word that comes out of BJ or NF's mouths?
- will still have to pay a 'subscription fee' to trade with Europe even if we leave.
- will probably have to agree to deals on immigration etc anyway in any deals made

- the balance of peace in NI could rest on whether the physical borders go up again between North and South
- Scotland will most likely bide their time and leave UK once things settle down
- argument about NHS is nonsense - have you seen that TV ad? what a bunch of fantasy. NHS cannot be sustained, whether we stay or go. It needs a radical rethink.
- I saw one article today that says "Great Britain" wants to become "Little England". This is driven by English pols, using nationalism as their beating drum, its not a UK exit from Europe, its a UK breakup if it goes through

All I see is a load of my older relatives on FB being wound up to vote to leave based on nothing more than patriotism. That will ultimately get us nowhere as its built on bad foundations.

meh I could go on and on.
The remain camp is a shambles. They have let the Leave camp run away with the narrative that we can have our cake and eat it.
Nigel Farage was on tv last month saying we would take back control of immigration and sign a better deal.
The remain camp haven't stressed the bolted points enough. It's partly because he remain camp is ran by people who have at some point in the past, pushed that silly agenda for short term gain.
 
When those people that vote Leave on Thursday, do they know what type of "Leave" they are actually voting for, presume there's not an option to vote
1) Completely 2) A lot 3) a fair bit 4) only a little bit

So presumably it is a complete break that they 'think' are voting for- so everything they know as of this moment will all have to be -re negotiated from zero, new laws etc which will be endless -complete and utter chaos
 
The remain camp is a shambles. They have let the Leave camp run away with the narrative that we can have our cake and eat it.
Nigel Farage was on tv last month saying we would take back control of immigration and sign a better deal.
The remain camp haven't stressed the bolted points enough. It's partly because he remain camp is ran by people who have at some point in the past, pushed that silly agenda for short term gain.

They have but it just gets labelled scaremongering and apparently that's a good enough response to avoid addressing the issue.
 
I'm pretty convinced the country will vote remain anyway, but I don't share your optimism with anything to do with the Tories. Immigration is the stick they're using to hit the voters with, there's no way they will cede free movement of EU nationals when their entire debate has been about stopping this. Not to mention there is no such thing as an emergency brake on EU immigration. I feel like this is misunderstood. The brake that exists relates to social security and benefits being paid out - not to do with stopping immigrants from coming over. This brake on immigration does not exist.

On top of that, in order to invoke the brake on benefit payments to EU migrants you have to satisfy criteria, like there being a serious problem having a serious impact on our country that is unlikely to change in the near future. Since there isn't, it would take something of a much higher magnitude to even give us the ability to invoke the brake and that isn't going to fly with the people up in arms about immigration because it means they can't do anything right now about immigration, which defeats the object of what they're trying to do.

No I'm not confusing it. EEA members (not EU members) have a unilateral emergency brake on the freedom of movement. Unlike Cameron's deal you don't have to go back to the commission for approval.

I'd like to think that halfway measure in emergencies would be sufficient to quell the hate but you could be right. If we leave there should be a second referendum on EEA or Leaving the single market as that's a huge difference
 
No I'm not confusing it. EEA members (not EU members) have a unilateral emergency brake on the freedom of movement. Unlike Cameron's deal you don't have to go back to the commission for approval.

I'd like to think that halfway measure in emergencies would be sufficient to quell the hate but you could be right. If we leave there should be a second referendum on EEA or Leaving the single market as that's a huge difference

Article 113 clearly states that not only would we have to enter into consultations with the EEA Joint Committee with a view to finding a commonly acceptable solution, but also as Article 112 states that the safeguard measures themselves can only be applied if serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties liable to persist are present (which they aren't) and the measures that we can apply will be restricted with regard to their scope and duration to what is strictly necessary in order to fix the situation before being lifted.

It is not simply a case of we can just stop immigration because we want to, which is what the leave campaign want. They will not settle for anything less, because to do so means immigration will carry on exactly as it is now. The issue is they think current immigration is a problem and needs to stop, but current immigration isn't enough to apply an emergency brake and even if it were it would be lifted as soon as the problem was over - and that's if the brake that we want to apply isn't restricted anyway due to the scope of the 'problem' and so they will be campaigning for literally nothing.
 
Tories would be committing political suicide if the country votes to leave and they accept free movement.

This is a key point for me. If true then Johnson, Gove et al, could easily say now that a Leave vote would mean they would not take part in any future government that signed new trade deals including free movement. They won't give any commitment at all though, preferring to waffle about BMWs or something instead. This indicates to me that they quite likely would end up signing just such a Norway/Swiss deal out of desperation, thus rendering a huge chunk of the Leave argument pointless.
 
Nigel Farage is easy pickings for Marina Hyde.

s someone who has failed to get elected to parliament seven times at current tally, Nigel Farage would not be in the House of Commons for the tributes to Jo Cox. Instead, the Ukip leader opted to tour the airwaves, where his statesman-in-waiting software appeared to be malfunctioning. Asked by BBC Radio 4’s Today programme to address widespread revulsion at his “Breaking point” poster last week, Nigel suggested the killing of the Labour MP hours later made it “unfortunate timing”. Agreed. It would have gone over a lot better in 1936.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics...e-tinfoil-as-his-brex-appeal-begins-to-falter
 

And people think they will allow us get away with free movement. If we vote to leave, I pity whoever the prime minister that has to negotiate with these lot.
 
EU law expert responds as “industrial dishonesty” video goes viral
MichaelDougan-2w.jpg


Leading EU law expert Professor Michael Dougan has added to his criticism of the referendum campaign’s “industrial dishonesty”, after a video featuring his thoughts drew millions of views online.

Professor Dougan, from the University of Liverpool’s Law School, analysed the central themes raised by both the Remain and Leave campaigns in a video that has clocked up more than two million views on Facebook since Friday, as well as almost 40,000 Youtube views and retweets from the likes of Billy Bragg and Alastair Campbell.

Responding to criticism that he hadn’t addressed the issue of immigration, Professor Dougan said: “Thanks to those who have written asking about immigration – a topic I had intended to cover in my lecture but I ran out of time and had to rush to an incomplete conclusion. Here is what I had intended to say. I hope you find it interesting and / or useful.

– a significant majority of the foreign nationals living in the UK (2/3 at the last national census), and over half the net immigration each year, come from outside the EU. That is almost entirely within our own domestic competence and power – we seem to be good at immigration, without needing any help from the EU.

– as regards those EU nationals who come to the UK: it is completely dishonest of prominent Leave campaigners repeatedly to claim that there is some sort of unconditional right to move to and settle in another Member State. We all have a right to circulate – that is the basis on which, e.g. we go on holiday to Spain and France. But when it comes to settling in another country, there are three main categories of right under EU law: for the economically active (ie in work and paying taxes); for students (eg enrolled at university and thus paying tuition fees); and for those wealthy enough to look after themselves and their families without relying on public benefits. There is no right to “benefit tourism” under EU law.

– Against that background, it is unsurprising to find that – according to all the objective social science research – EU migrants are significantly more likely to be younger, better qualified and economically active; they pay far more into the country in work and taxes than they take out in public benefits or services.

– When it comes to the particular situation of Eastern European migrants, we are rarely reminded of the fact that the UK was one of only three Member States (the others being Ireland and Sweden) that chose not to impose transitional restrictions on the rights to free movement of new EU citizens during the “Big Bang” enlargement of 2004. We chose to let these people come here as we did; no one forced us to and we could have decided otherwise. Small wonder that many other Europeans regard the UK debate as rather hypocritical.

– And nor should we forget that free movement is a two way street. Massive numbers of UK nationals travel for pleasure, study and work around the EU – taking advantage of all the benefits and convenience and protection EU law offers. Around 2 million UK nationals have also settled in other Member States – and the objective social science research suggests that those migrants are more likely to be economically inactive, ie they are not actively contributing through work and taxes to their host society. Again – small wonder other Europeans think there is a real double standard at work in the UK debate.

– It is also worth recalling that the accession of future Member States requires the unanimous agreement of the 28 governments plus their national ratification processes. The only large applicant is Turkey – and there is no realistic prospect of Turkey joining the EU within any of our lifetimes – not least since several countries have indicated that they would hold national referenda on any Turkish deal, obviously in the expectation that their populations would overwhelmingly reject it.”
 
Just watched Last Week Tonight - as usual John Oliver absolutely nails it.

The song at the end :lol:
 
Feels like momentum's swinging back to Remain again with these latest polls. Kind of reminds me of indy up here: Yes made some serious ground and really threatened, but the remain option regained some momentum again at the end, with people presumably doubting their stance.
 
Yanis Varoufakis(The guy in the video I posted)has said when he was the former Greek minister of finance the euro group threaten him and he's government with the closure of Greek banks. Yes the expert right to say this doesn't effect UK as it one of the big 3 but he's wrong to view this is a positive part of the EU. There is simply a huge problem with democracy and the EU, now voting out won't help to fix any of this and will simply isolate the UK in my opinion anyway, so I guess that sort of makes my point a bit well pointless but it's worth mentioning.

That has bothing to do with giving up democracy and everything to do with incompetent financial management by Greece. Just like the IMF situation with the UK in the 70s - borrow money and don't pay it back and/or ask for money when bankrupt and people tend to want conditions on further loans.
 
Can't understand people who want to leave.

Good lecture above by Adisa lecture by Professor Dougan who specialises in European Law, literally has a PhD in European Law. His specialiasm. (Came to post this and recommend it but its already posted)

Goes on to say it's nonsense the figures spouted by the leave party.

I hate the "Official Information" slip put through the post with the title "The Facts" a lot of it is fear mongering people.

One depicting the borders of Turkey showing Iraq and Syria to it to appeal to people who can't distinguish between refugees people who are being bombed and seeking asylum and terrorists.

Jo Cox death and many others show the terrorism is down to home-grown terrorists that are born in the nation they attack, Breivik in Norway, Thomas Mair, even shootings in the States, many driving for votes for "keeping borders safe" it's a nonsensical argument really.

I don't like the lies from the Leave party £350M a week can be saved apparently, yet the UK gets a £190M rebate on that, taking the figure to £160M. The figure touted of £350M goes on to say the UK could build a hospital a week!

Yet the NHS is underfunded, hospitals are short staffed as it is, but ok build new ones! on-top of that skilled workers such as doctors, the true specialists don't come from UK universities the laws giving access to Social Security and rights to the NHS will change so why would they want to come to our so called new hospitals.

I highly recommend the lecture above, I know Norwegians here will say the Norwegian model won't work for us, and I truly agree I'm dating a Norwegian right now and Norway is completely different from England in terms of industry, population and politics.

I fear for a "United Kingdom" in a leave scenario, where Wales and Scotland will leave the UK, there will no longer be a "Great Britain".
 
I was recently granted a rare glimpse behind the official façade of the EU when I met with its Trade Commissioner in her Brussels office. I was there to discuss the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), the controversial treaty currently under negotiation between the EU and the USA.

As Trade Commissioner, Cecilia Malmström occupies a powerful position in the apparatus of the EU. She heads up the trade directorate of the European Commission, the post previously given to Peter Mandelson when he was forced to quit front line politics in the UK. This puts her in charge of trade and investment policy for all 28 EU member states, and it is her officials that are currently trying to finalise the TTIP deal with the USA.

What is TTIP? And six reasons why the answer should scare you
In our meeting, I challenged Malmström over the huge opposition to TTIP across Europe. In the last year, a record three and a quarter million European citizens have signed the petition against it. Thousands of meetings and
protests have been held across all 28 EU member states, including a spectacular 250,000-strong demonstration in Berlin this weekend.

When put to her, Malmström acknowledged that a trade deal has never inspired such passionate and widespread opposition. Yet when I asked the trade commissioner how she could continue her persistent promotion of the deal in the face of such massive public opposition, her response came back icy cold: “I do not take my mandate from the European people.”

So who does Cecilia Malmström take her mandate from? Officially, EU commissioners are supposed to follow the elected governments of Europe. Yet the European Commission is carrying on the TTIP negotiations behind closed doors without the proper involvement European governments, let alone MPs or members of the public. British civil servants have admitted to us that they have been kept in the dark throughout the TTIP talks, and that this makes their job impossible.

At some point in the next two years, the people of Britain will be asked whether they wish to leave or remain in the EU. I am proud to be a European, and have no truck with the xenophobic scaremongering of those little Englanders who would close our borders. I believe in a people’s Europe, a social Europe where we can work together with others across our continent – and outside it – to build a common future beyond the business interests of a tiny elite.

Yet the question we will be asked in the referendum is not whether we wish to remain Europeans, as if such a question could have any meaning. Rather, we will be asked whether we wish to remain subject to the institutions of the European Union, including the unelected Commission. As the people of Greece have learned through bitter experience, those institutions will not tolerate any reform or deviation from their blueprint of permanent austerity and corporate rule.

TTIP offers a glimpse of the nightmare that the European Commission has in store for each one of us. Cecilia Malmström has shown the contempt with which she and her fellow commissioners view the European people. We have been warned.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices...the-eu-official-in-charge-of-it-a6690591.html
Probably been posted before but a timely reminder of why some do not want to be governed by Brussels.
 
That has bothing to do with giving up democracy and everything to do with incompetent financial management by Greece. Just like the IMF situation with the UK in the 70s - borrow money and don't pay it back and/or ask for money when bankrupt and people tend to want conditions on further loans.

Yes, and the Greeks still vote to remain in the EU, and still vote to stay with the Euro, despite the conditions.
As for Healey and the IMF, I once read the loan was repaid in less than 12 months, it was used for stability rather than spending. so not really like Greece.
 
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