We don't know what the deal was with Haaland. Could be he only wanted a 2 year contract and then move to Madrid. His agents cut could have been too much for the board to accept etc etc. Too many variables to second guess at. The only thing you can probably glean from this is he will never play for Utd at his peak at least
You say we can't know what the deal was, but you're also certain this means he won't play for us during his peak?
That sounds contradictory to me.
What we do know is that we were never his favorite club growing up, so he wouldn't drop every other offer to come here to fulfill a dream.
He made a smart career decision by going to a stepping-stone club where he would be guaranteed to be the main man playing every week in a 2-3 club league, guaranteed Champions League football every season. He could continue to develop with all eyes in Europe on him, with a seemingly guaranteed next step move 2 summers later when he turns 22 with the buyout clause. Ready to pick and choose from any team he wants.
His camp said they felt it was more Ole who pushed for wanting him at our club in December 2019, and not so much the rest of the club. At a time where Ole's future looked uncertain until we hit the stride in February after Bruno came in as the puzzle piece to unlock the system we had been trying to play with Pereira et al.
Had it not worked out Haaland could have risked a new manager coming in within months of him joining, maybe they would favor Martial and he would struggle to get starts like Lukaku did when Ole came in. And United unwilling to accept buyout clauses would have left him without a get out of jail free card if his career stagnated.
We would have been a gamble, Dortmund was a safer bet.
All that said, I don't see any reason why he wouldn't seriously consider us the next time he moves clubs. That will be his first really big contract, and we'll definitely be able to meet his financial needs. If we continue to stabilize and heavily challenge, or maybe even winna big trophy in the next 1.5 seasons then we'll have his sporting ambitions covered as well if he at 22 can come in expecting to take over for Cavani and bring us up another level as our main CF for the next 5-10 years.
I have doubts he will want to play for Bayern after spending those years at Dortmund, he probably wants to try another league, plus I think he'll want a bigger salary than they can offer. PSG will not be ambitious enough, and I think Juventus might be similar.
We don't know fully how RM and Barca will look in 2 summers, they seem to struggle a bit financially now.
So to me the Premier League looks the most likely. Spurs will probably still have Kane, and won't be willing to spend what's needed. Liverpool maybe if they sell some of their stars. Chelsea perhaps as they continue to spend big when they have to, but I think he'll want something even bigger.
To me it seems like it will be most likely down to us and City. Both teams will need a new big CF. Both can pay really well.
But a lot can change in 1.5 years. It will be interesting to see if either club have changed their manager by then, and how their results on the pitch are doing.
His father played for City, so there will be some sentimental draw there. But that just means his father was never good enough to play for a real big team. He was there from 2000-03, first season they got relegated, then they won League One, and then finished 9th in the Prem before he retired.
As long as our results on the field are pretty good by the time his move comes up I think our commercial brand power in the world that could help elevate him to truly become one of the most known names in the world of sports, will give us more than a good chance of winning out when it's time for them to consider the pro's and con's of his next move.
But a lot can happen in those years. We have to continue progressing forward to be an attractive destination. But it's silly to think now that it's unlikely that he will play for us in his prime.