Is our entire home record this season a fluke too?
Ah, just realised you’re a city fan wumming almost every thread possible.
Erik ten Hag | 2022/23 & 2023/24
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Ah, just realised you’re a city fan wumming almost every thread possible.
Yeah but pretty clear explanation for that, given the fixture list.
And their xG - xGa ratio isn't a whole lot better. They are at 0.776 per 90, we are 0.561 per 90, which totals up to just 8 over a season. Not arguing that they weren't a level above in *league* performances, but when you consider our insane fixture congestion, striker situation, goalkeeper situation compared to them having full weeks regularly (and the teams below us having that), then it really bangs home the point. Brighton and Newcastle for example have better underlying numbers but not for a second do I think they are better than us. It is purely down to no fixture congestion, purely down to having full weeks to prep, recover, and avoid injuries. Arsenal is in the same boat. All 3 will have a feck ton more fixture congestion next year, and I fully expect them to drop off significantly. Liverpool is the one who is below us who I realistically see surpassing us, as I think they had a fluke down season and their normal level is still #2 in the league (and Klopp will for sure toss aside Europa League).
I agree with the general point of we need to improve, and repeating our points total next season despite improving this summer would still be a very good season, as I'd bet we would have much better underlying metrics. I'm just saying that the things separating the metrics and goal difference of Arsenal, Newcastle, Brighton and United is mainly variance and fixture congestion. I really don't think it's any more than that.
Massive progress. Funny that people wanted him gone when we lost 7-0 to Liverpool.
Call me giddy but I fancy us to reach the latter stages of the CL next season (depending on transfers of course). Ten Hag has shown he can beat the big boys at Old Trafford with home wins vs City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Barca. He's also demonstrated an ability to go deep in every cup competition. If it wasn't for a freakish set of circumstances when we were 2-0 up vs Sevilla then we probably would've reached all 3 finals in his first season.
How convenient.
Sometimes you need a bit of luck to win but it wasn't a fluke. We had a very good gameplan that day and deserved to win.
I disagree because I posted on the forum last year that I wanted us to sell Maguire and sign Akanji last year, I always thought akanji is almost like Lindelof on the ball but physically far quicker and stronger so that makes him a better CB than Lindelof and maguire already. While it is no brainer to choose Laporte over Maguire and Lindelof. I’m shocked that you can’t see the quality of Laporte. He’s a top class centre back and Laporte would 100% start over Gabriel, Konate/Matip, and Botman, I don’t see Maguire or Lindelof start over Gabriel and Konate/Matip. That’s how much the gap between Laporte and Maguire/Lindelof.
We were linked with Phillips last year to upgrade McFred remember? I can’t see how Pep or Arteta wants McFred in their team because they are clueless to play from the back. Phillips has been coached to play from the back by Bielsa, McFred hasn’t develop this skills so this makes Phillips a better midfielder for teams that wants to play from the back. Although, I still wouldn’t want Phillips as my squad depth because I want someone who is better than just being Spursy level.
And if we include Cancelo who already started 16 league games half season meaning City have/had 11 quality starting XI and 6 quality squad depth who can walk into teams that challenging the league. In addition, 1 player on spurs level (Phillips) and 1 player who only just integrated from the youth academy (Lewis). Imo that’s a dream squad for any manager to have at least 17 quality players that can start into teams that wants to challenge the league .
You’d think the last 10 years of us being mediocre would help give people perspective on football and success.
It’s not our divine right to win things, we’ve been poor for so long now and it’s not shameful to celebrate the success of this season.
Are we close to being back to where fergie had us? Not really, but at least we look a lot more like a team now. People crying about the bad things this season, where on earth were you last season?
I don’t know what constitutes a supporter of a team, but if you can’t enjoy this season after the way the club felt last May, then that’s a pretty big red flag on what you want out of following this football club.
It’s not our divine right to win things, we’ve been poor for so long now and it’s not shameful to celebrate the success of this season.
Are we close to being back to where fergie had us? Not really, but at least we look a lot more like a team now. People crying about the bad things this season, where on earth were you last season?
I don’t know what constitutes a supporter of a team, but if you can’t enjoy this season after the way the club felt last May, then that’s a pretty big red flag on what you want out of following this football club.
Ok, I demonstrate lack of understanding.
Lets put your super knowledge and understanding to the test.
League Cup v Table placement
2023 - United 3rd
2022 - Liverpool 2nd
2018- - 21 - City - 1st & 2nd
2017 - United - 6th
2016 - City - 4th
2015 - Chelsea - 3rd
FA cup v table placement
2023 - United City - Both top 4
2022 - Liverpool - 2nd
2021 - Leicester 5th
2020 - Arsenal 8th
2019 - City 1st
2018 - Chelsea 5th
2017 - Arsenal 5th
Yep those clearly show that the teams winning the cup are nowhere near the top of the table. Great bit of understanding shown by you.
Clap clap clap.
Yes but surely the rest of the midfield is too different to make any comparisons. Point being the possession and progression of the ball was mainly by Jorginho and/or Kovacic no? We don't have that player and Mount would presumably be playing that role of an 8?
Again Mount as a 10 ahead of say FDJ and Casemiro is great as a possession based team. But Mount/casemiro pivot with Bruno ahead....I worry for that. Or Rice/Casemiro pivot...I worry for that too.
What in the actual feck are you doing here? All you’ve done is spent time gathering those stats and PROVING my point.
Out of the 13 trophies won you’ve listed, only two were won by the team that finished first in that season. Which is exactly what I stated. It is YOU who seems to think that only the number one top team can win the cups. Highlighted by the fact you’ve spent post after post stating we can’t win the final, despite us beating city already this season but you chose to take this as me saying we must be equally as good as city as a result. It’s seriously laughable the shite coming from you.
Also, to take me so damn literally when I said “anywhere near” is plain daft. But let’s be honest, 4th to 8th are absolutely not anywhere near 1st.
You’re also disregarding points tally. This season Newcastle are fourth. They are not anywhere near the top for feck sake. They’re 19 points adrift from City
. Position without a points tally doesn’t tell the full story. Jesus h Christ.I’m actually in total disbelief that you’ve committed such a huge and humiliating own goal here
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How others do is irrelevant to our points total. Our points total is enough for top 4 in most seasons.
Agree about massive additions to the squad.
What in the actual feck are you doing here? All you’ve done is spent time gathering those stats and PROVING my point.
Out of the 13 trophies won you’ve listed, only two were won by the team that finished first in that season. Which is exactly what I stated. It is YOU who seems to think that only the number one top team wins the cups.
I’m actually in total disbelief that you’ve committed such a huge and humiliating own goal here. What a total dimwit.
Oh right so nowhere near means 1st? I guess finishing 2nd is nowhere near the top for you.
So in your theory we are 3rd, we must be million miles from the top.
No, please read instead of assuming things. I never said the team 1st in the league always wins cups, if you read that somewhere, then thats on you.
Oh yes, personal insults, then calling me dimwit
... Usually the better team wins, which City are, in comparison to us.You clearly need to open a dictionary to see 4th is closer to the top than 18th. When you say things like usually cups are won by team nowhere near the top, it suggests mid-lower table teams.
Oh well, must be a dimwit thing that, 1 point from top which liverpool were last season must be so far. I never knew 2nd is nowhere near 1st.
I believe we don’t just sign Mount but also we might sign rabiot.
And if we sign Mason Mount, I believe there will be changing of tactic next season. And this is mainly because ten Hag and the scouting teams couldn’t find a deep-playmaker that has similar profile as FDJ (Someone with press resistance who can be ball carrier and progressive passer). Instead of playing with 4231 double pivot, ETH might play 433 with one no 6 and two no 8. We see this changing formation in his Ajax team when FDJ left.
The following below is when Ajax had the possession and start their build up play vs Dortmund in 2021/2022 season. You can see that Gravenberch is nowhere near in Ajax build up play phase to progress the ball. It‘s the keeper, two CB, a DM, and the two full backs the ones who got involved in this and if ETH uses this same system then we will rely on those 6 positions to retain possession or recycle the ball. Among these 6 players, Alvarez is the one being assigned to play more simple passes and doesn’t get involved on the ball often (see below stats), this suitable to Casemiro who is not a press resistance so I think we will see a different role in Casemiro next season in comparison to this season.
I think our build up and attacking transition will be something like this:
GK
Varane Martinez
Casemiro
RB —————— Shaw
Antony - Mount - Bruno - Rashford
ST
Varane Martinez
Casemiro
RB —————— Shaw
Antony - Mount - Bruno - Rashford
ST
Bruno and Mount will play in Berghuis and Gravenberch role. Our full backs will cover the half space and sometime swap position with the wingers. Mount will be perfect to play in this set up and system because we will get to utilise his strength to do high press, scoring goals and assists.
I took pictures of these FBref end of last season so this is based on 21/22 season.
This can't be understated. He inherited two massive problems that had little to do with football, on top of which a few significant injuries, and yet got us to 3rd and two cup finals. A fantastic improvement under significant adversity and that's before we even get to the intense pressure of needed to perform that is bestowed on any United manager.
I never said that not being anywhere near the top means mid-lower table teams. If you read that somewhere then that’s on you.Oh right so nowhere near means 1st? I guess finishing 2nd is nowhere near the top for you.
So in your theory we are 3rd, we must be million miles from the top.
No, please read instead of assuming things. I never said the team 1st in the league always wins cups, if you read that somewhere, then thats on you.
Oh yes, personal insults, then calling me dimwit
You clearly need to open a dictionary to see 4th is closer to the top than 18th. When you say things like usually cups are won by team nowhere near the top, it suggests mid-lower table teams.
Oh well, must be a dimwit thing that, 1 point from top which liverpool were last season must be so far. I never knew 2nd is nowhere near 1st.
You’re certainly the gift that keeps on giving. I’ve never interacted with a poster whose replies make them look dafter and dafter with no self awareness whatsoever. Hilarious stuff.
Also might be worth nothing that “not anywhere near the top” is quite different to “nowhere near the top”. Try to read what I said, and not misquote it time and time again. Cheers.
I leave you with this quote of yours. Mainly because I think it demonstrates to everyone here that you are completely clueless if you truly believe this nonsense. No better than the disastrous Rangnick era of last season is ludicrous.
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I think we can go far as well but you would almost want to focus on the league and the CL only and play reserves in the domestic cups (which I'm not sure is in his mentality).
Arsenal may be a bad example as they ended up with nothing and blowing the title early, but they focused solely on the league and I think if they had done what we have done, full strength pretty much as often as possible in all competitions, they would have finished their title chase in April, and would have maybe not really been in any sort of title race.
They're either butt hurt because everyone who said Solskjaer was grossly unqualified ended up being correct, or they're glory hunters following a sport they don't really understand.
There are increasing numbers of supposed Utd fans on here who seem to want us to lose more than opposition fans want us to lose.
It's bizarre.
It's bizarre.
he didn't say usually - try again
"Cup competitions are often won by teams who weren’t anywhere near the top of the table" In a table where there are 20 teams, 2nd is closer to the top than 10th.4th is closer to top than 10th.
Most domestics cups have been won by the team in top 6 of the PL, which clearly shows the closer to the top, higher the chances of winning a cup.
Oh yes, 30th April, go check our results at that time, where we were losing games, like we were last year.
Oh if you want to post random quotes, I can too. One of the better teams this season are comically bad. Yep, you know much more than me.
Oh right yeah often... I suspect you think 3rd is also not close to top of the table.
That's fair enough.
The facts are that we had the second best season of any PL team after City. For all of arsenal’s league success their overall accomplishment is top four with no trophies. Same for Newcastle…fantastic season and clearly an over performance, but simply a top four finish and no trophies.
Not only do we have top four but one…and maybe even two…trophies to boot. That’s a fantastic achievement. Others can moan about our goal totals and weaknesses, but a season is not a small sample size. It eliminates variance. This is who we were this season…the second best team in the PL…and I think it would be hard to argue that without ETH I doubt we would have even made top four.
Marvelous season with a real reason to feel like next season will be even better…
Not only do we have top four but one…and maybe even two…trophies to boot. That’s a fantastic achievement. Others can moan about our goal totals and weaknesses, but a season is not a small sample size. It eliminates variance. This is who we were this season…the second best team in the PL…and I think it would be hard to argue that without ETH I doubt we would have even made top four.
Marvelous season with a real reason to feel like next season will be even better…
Unless we win the Fa cup i think winning the league cup is a bit of a irrevelance. I wouldn't call us the 2nd best unless we manage the Fa cup.
HAHAHAHA. You’ve outdone yourself yet again. Bravo.
Comparing me saying Brighton are comically bad on a single match day thread where they were playing badly in ONE game and losing 4-1 to Newcastle, to you saying “we are playing no better than last season” discussing our performance levels up to and over an entire season on the manager performance thread is absolutely outrageous
. Apples and oranges. Jesus Christ yet again.You said that on the 30th April, only four weeks before the end of the whole season, about our whole fecking season. I said Brighton were bad in one game, not over the entire season. You’re just highlighting how you cannot grasp even the most basic of ideas. You should stop posting. It’s fecking humiliating.
I have to thank you though, you’ve given us all a real good laugh today.
eh?
Regardless of what nonsense he’s posting yet again; Hypothetically speaking, I would argue, and will die on this hill, that finishing third place 20-30 points behind first is absolutely finishing not anywhere near the team in first position. It’s fecking miles behind first in terms of points won. But he’s taken it upon himself to take what I said as meaning finishing 15th-20th or thereabouts.
As I stated previously, simply stating finishing positions without the context of including points tallies is basically senseless.
This conversation is derailing the thread anyway, so it needs to end now. The point is ETH has done a fantastic job, and we are still in with a shout of winning the FA Cup.
I'd actually call it four massive problems - the other two being Rashford and Maguire. Both of whom have also been dealt with really well, whether by getting them into the best form of their career or making signings to appropriately shift and replace an $80m burden.
Ahh yes, I am the one posting nonsense?
Out of the 13 trophies won you’ve listed, only two were won by the team that finished first in that season. Which is exactly what I stated.
Yep, anywhere near the top means top apparently. If you meant top, why didn't you say it?
Also, I was talking nonsense but clearly you twist facts to suit your agenda... 2 were won by the team finished 1st?
City won the league cup 3 in a row, Liverpool won the cups finishing 1 point behind City... but ofcourse 1 points is miles of top.
Very interesting. I am more bullish on Arsenal than you. I think they have potential to do better too. Everything depends on transfers though honestly. I think to an extent all of us ( Arsenal, United, Newcastle) have overachieved (not based off stats, just my opinion) . Which might mean revert to mean but also means more room and potential for improvement.
I generally about the reason but still those numbers you pulled up show big difference tbh.
Arsenal for half a season has presented a level which we've not achieved apart from some isolated games/half games. However, they can only do small tweaks to their team, while we have very clear pain points - solving them will elevate us to their level hopefully. So I'm not fussed about them.
We've played 37 games and about 40% of the goals we've conceded have come in 3 games. It's a gross oversimplification statistics without applying any context.
Which is really quite barmy because I happily admit to being an Ole fan and supported him staying most of the way through his time in charge, but when it ended it ended. I don't think I've mentioned him in a single post since until now. Has no bearing on how I would judge Ten Hag at all.
The agenda mob and the trolls are killing this forum by the day.
I mean come on. We didn't really, yes we nullified their attack for the most part but we were toothless and didn't look like scoring until the game suddenly got turned upside down. It's crazy to say we deserved to win. Draw maybe, win not at all.How convenient.
Sometimes you need a bit of luck to win but it wasn't a fluke. We had a very good gameplan that day and deserved to win.
Backs up my feelings on Arsenal.
If we beat Fulham on Sunday we will end the season on 75 points.
Only once in the entire history of the Premier League has a team with 75 points failed to get top four so it’s a pretty shit argument to be honest. The stats say that it’s 32/1 shot you miss out on top 4 with that record.
In the huge majority of seasons it gets you 3rd.
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Matches played since the world cup
United 39
Brighton 29
Liverpool 29
Newcastle 28
Arsenal 27
Tottenham 27
People might try to convince themselves that us playing at least 10 games more than everyone around us is insignificant, but in reality that is 10 midweeks this year that we haven't been able to adequately rest and prepare between matches, while our main competitors could. Anyone who refuses to add that context to this type of discussion just isn't worth engaging with.
I believe we don’t just sign Mount but also we might sign rabiot.
And if we sign Mason Mount, I believe there will be changing of tactic next season. And this is mainly because ten Hag and the scouting teams couldn’t find a deep-playmaker that has similar profile as FDJ (Someone with press resistance who can be ball carrier and progressive passer). Instead of playing with 4231 double pivot, ETH might play 433 with one no 6 and two no 8. We see this changing formation in his Ajax team when FDJ left.
The following below is when Ajax had the possession and start their build up play vs Dortmund in 2021/2022 season. You can see that Gravenberch is nowhere near in Ajax build up play phase to progress the ball. It‘s the keeper, two CB, a DM, and the two full backs the ones who got involved in this and if ETH uses this same system then we will rely on those 6 positions to retain possession or recycle the ball. Among these 6 players, Alvarez is the one being assigned to play more simple passes and doesn’t get involved on the ball often (see below stats), this suitable to Casemiro who is not a press resistance so I think we will see a different role in Casemiro next season in comparison to this season.
I think our build up and attacking transition will be something like this:
GK
Varane Martinez
Casemiro
RB —————— Shaw
Antony - Mount - Bruno - Rashford
ST
Bruno and Mount will play in Berghuis and Gravenberch role. Our full backs will cover the half space and sometime swap position with the wingers. Mount will be perfect to play in this set up and system because we will get to utilise his strength to do high press, scoring goals and assists.
I took pictures of these FBref end of last season so this is based on 21/22 season.
Perhaps Timber could be that missing piece at RB?
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