Erik ten Hag | 2022/23 & 2023/24

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The injury argument is so tired when even our most fit teams we put out had the exact same issues defensively as our injury ravaged ones.

Quite funny to see some of the main culprits in here still going to bat for him after I debated several back in February that agreed with me that post UCL exit (when I was raging that he should be sacked every day) they wanted to see how the next couple of months went. Well they went about as bad as they could go and yet it still didn’t change people’s minds somehow.
 
We saw what we played like with a largely fit squad at the start of the season though. We also saw how we performed away from home vs the top 10 last season. We've witnessed ten Hag has struggle vs the best coaches in the league across both seasons. The evidence is right in front of you.

Even when Shaw and Lisandro came back into the side in January, the team was still disjointed and conceded multiple goals while facing lots of shots on our goal.

The Wolves game at the start of the season was the biggest indicator of what was to come this season.

Our starting XI was Onana, Shaw, Lisandro, Varane, Dalot, Casemiro, Garnacho, Mount, Bruno, Antony and Rashford. Højlund was the only potential starter missing. They cut through us like a hot knife through butter.



True, the tactics should be more flexible and adaptive depending on our opponents and playing to our strengths and the available players. That means try to play players in their preferred position to get the best out of them, especially with our current injuries. That's on Ten Hag and the coaching staff. Also, Ten Hag had a big involvement in our transfers. We as a club shouldn't have done that.

Still, I do feel that the results this season vs the big teams (City, Liverpool, Arsenal) are much better than last season. Last season we were getting annihilated with big nummers result-wise. These days I always feel we can score goals or get draws/wins. I know, the results don't add up (14 losses?), but I have a feeling that we could and should have scored more in certain games and that we were wasteful in front of goal.
The problem I have this season are the results and performance against midtable teams and teams in delegation battle. Last week Crystal Palace, I don't know what the players were doing, but these are the games you should win.

Also, the start of this season wasn't the best, but teams with a fixed IX do tend to get better as the season progresses. Just look at Chelsea, they were the laughing stock for the large part of the season, even more so than United, but they stuck together and are playing better and better and getting the results.
 
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Most people believed Ten Hag did a good job last season. This one has been rubbish. But how confident are you that it’s solely him to blame?
But it doesn't have to be solely him to blame. Nobody thinks the only problem we have is Ten Hag. You just cannot make a million excuses for him to absolve him of all blame. At the very least he's a head coach who is responsible for the way we play and the way we set up every week. It's not just the results, everyone who has watched us play will know that, all stats say that. We much more resemble a poorly coached decent side than a well coached side with poor players.
 
Well it will fix the problem of having a manager that is not good enough. Which is a good start.

Unless that's not the problem in which case it is a bad start.

Maybe it's Erik who doesn't have it in him. He's made in my opinion lots if poor decisions. It's possible the job is too big for him and the pressure is affecting his judgement. As he's obviously a decent coach.

I think he is a good coach but he has a particular way of playing in mind that he is determined to achieve. He would rather quit than compromise on that in the medium term. And when he has tried a low block he's still lost so it's not like he has much to lose. In the end there's only so much blood you can get from a stone and the squad has reached its limit. New players are the only answer and having a guy that is good at bringing them on from the youth team is pretty essential.
 
True but there's only so much you can do in one or two summers. It's fine in theory to say we need 10-15 new players. But for the quality we need they'll all cost at least £30-70m each.

Then we have to factor in possible stopgap signings if we can't attract the right profile of player this summer with no CL football to offer.

Of course it’s much harder in practice and it’s going to take at least 2-3 summer windows but it’s what has to be done. We can’t continue to make do and hope for the best with players, especially when vast majority are massively overpaid.

We have to sell/release a lot of players, sign a lot of players and be more competitive. It is an extremely difficult job for whoever replaces ETH next season and going to be a struggle for few years.
 
True but there's only so much you can do in one or two summers. It's fine in theory to say we need 10-15 new players. But for the quality we need they'll all cost at least £30-70m each.

Then we have to factor in possible stopgap signings if we can't attract the right profile of player this summer with no CL football to offer.
Definitely takes multiple windows. That said I think we can bring in 4-5 starters for this window and it would be huge for the team.
 
I think he is a good coach but he has a particular way of playing in mind that he is determined to achieve. He would rather quit than compromise on that in the medium term. And when he has tried a low block he's still lost so it's not like he has much to lose. In the end there's only so much blood you can get from a stone and the squad has reached its limit. New players are the only answer and having a guy that is good at bringing them on from the youth team is pretty essential.

What is this fabled "style of play"? Two years in now, can anyone explain it? Because he said himself that he we don't play and don't plan to play like Ajax. And I've yet to see a cohesive style of play yet.
 
True but there's only so much you can do in one or two summers. It's fine in theory to say we need 10-15 new players. But for the quality we need they'll all cost at least £30-70m each.

Then we have to factor in possible stopgap signings if we can't attract the right profile of player this summer with no CL football to offer.


I do actually think no Europe will be a net benefit to Utd next season, if that’s what happens. You very likely need players out of the door before you can bring new ones, amd that task will be made more difficult if you are playing Sunday-Thursday-Sunday for periods of the season. People always talk about how you can use the conference league to give youngsters experience, but in my experience that never actually happens, even if it was part of the plan.
 
What is this fabled "style of play"? Two years in now, can anyone explain it? Because he said himself that he we don't play and don't plan to play like Ajax. And I've yet to see a cohesive style of play yet.

He's played an obvious and identifiable system all season. It's been incredibly ineffective, but it's been clearly the same thing week-in, week-out.

The point of contention is whether you think it'll work with an actual left-back, central defenders that aren't in constant fluctuation, and a defensive midfielder that can actually cover the pitch and not give away the ball within seconds of having it in his possession. If I were running the club, I wouldn't be willing to gamble on that being the case and would be looking to hire a new head coach, but given the general structure doesn't actually appear to be that dissimilar to what some of the top sides are doing (Arsenal among them), I can see why people have maintained at least some faith that it's not working because of player quality, rather than it simply being a shit system.
 
True, the tactics should be more flexible and adaptive depending on our opponents and playing to our strengths and the available players. That means try to play players in their preferred position to get the best out of them, especially with our current injuries.

Still, I do feel that the results this season vs the big teams (City, Liverpool, Arsenal) are much better than last season. Last season we were getting annihilated with big nummers result-wise. These days I always feel we can nick at least one goal or get a draw.
The problem I have this season are the results and performance against midtable teams and teams in delegation battle. Last week Crystal Palace, I don't know what the players were doing, but these are the games you should win.

Also, the start of this season wasn't the best, but teams with a fixed IX do tend to get better as the season progresses. Just look at Chelsea, they were the laughing stock for the large part of the season, even more so than United, but they stuck together and are playing better and better and getting the wins.

We took 3 points from 6 vs City last season
We took 3 points from 6 vs Arsenal last season
We took 3 points from 6 for Liverpool last season
We took 3 points from 6 vs Villa last season
We took 4 points from 6 vs Spurs last season
We took 1 point from 6 vs Newcastle last season
We took 4 points from 6 vs Chelsea last season
21 points out of 42

We've taken 0 points from 6 vs City this season
We've taken 0 points from 6 vs Arsenal this season
We've taken 2 points from 6 vs Liverpool this season
We've taken 6 points from 6 vs Villa this season
We've taken 1 points from 6 vs Spurs this season
We've taken 0 points from 3 vs Newcastle this season
We've taken 3 points from 6 vs Chelsea this season
12 points from 39

We avoided a 7-0 at Anfield this season, which is the main difference. And beat Villa away this season. We took less points than last season vs the majority of them.

Chelsea have also had injuries all season. They haven't had a fixed XI. Poch has only stumbled on a winning formula recently. He's chopped and changed all season. Their defence isn't settled either. The difference between Chelsea and us is that they're not poor in attack.
 
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He's played an obvious and identifiable system all season. It's been incredibly ineffective, but it's been clearly the same thing week-in, week-out.

If he's played an obvious and identifiable system/tactics, could you please do me a favour and elaborate by describing that for me? I'll make my own attempt below.

but given the general structure doesn't actually appear to be that dissimilar to what some of the top sides are doing (Arsenal among them), I can see why people have maintained at least some faith that it's not working because of player quality

I personally really really don't see this at all. Pretty much all the top teams of the last few years, won things by pressing high, turning the ball over quickly and dominating possession. And it's not that we don't do that. It's that we don't even attempt to do that.

We have a disjointed system where the forwards do a half-committed press, while the defenders stay put. Presumably because the defenders don't have the legs to chase if the high press fails, or because the forwards don't have the stamina for continuous press, or because we lack the coordination required for a high team press, or (most likely) because of all the above. But anyway, the half-committed press rarely yields results because the gap between the pressing forwards and the sitting defence is big and the opposition can easily pick a pass through the midfield. The result is being wide open in midfield, easily played-through when one single tackle fails, and thus conceding loads of goals. A high risk, no-reward sort of tactic. Because it's not like we score a lot to compensate, we have the lowest scoring attack in the top-half of the table.

I fail to see how City, Liverpool or Arsenal play like this at all. And even moreso, I have not seen a team achieve results with this tactic. Please let me know of someone else who has, so that we know it's not just blind faith in the tactics of one man. I being polite to ETH by saying the team has no identifiable style of play. Because to say that this is the style of play he wants, is basically to admit that the man is an utter moron.
 
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What is this fabled "style of play"? Two years in now, can anyone explain it? Because he said himself that he we don't play and don't plan to play like Ajax. And I've yet to see a cohesive style of play yet.

Yeah we don't see it cos they can't do it. As I understand it the idea is to high press and fast transition, pass out from the back and keep the ball. We don't do any of that of course except in flashes now and again when we were playing better. But it's the right aspiration surely?
 
We’ve got 11 individuals in each match not a team. I hate to say it but the next manager will fail with this lot. We’ve got a clash of varying player identities. It will never work unless we sell most of our players and start again.
 
Yeah we don't see it cos they can't do it. As I understand it the idea is to high press and fast transition, pass out from the back and keep the ball. We don't do any of that of course except in flashes now and again when we were playing better. But it's the right aspiration surely?

I have seen no evidence of this high press at all. High press is not just the forwards pressing, it's the whole team. Last defender being as high as the halfway line and apart from the GK and one sweeper, everyone else is pressing. I really don't see an attempt to play like that.
 
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He loves talking about injuries but while I agree that our defensive injuries have been crazy but in attack our injuries have been pretty much league average and yet we have scored 52 goals in 36 games in the league which is joint 13th in the league and most likely we will end up 15th in goals scored. Freaking Luton town who will be relegated have scored 50 goals this season. He literally can’t get us to do anything on attack and hopes for big moments from our players to bail him out
 
We’ve got 11 individuals in each match not a team. I hate to say it but the next manager will fail with this lot. We’ve got a clash of varying player identities. It will never work unless we sell most of our players and start again.

No one, ever, sells most of their players and just starts again. Change is always incremental. And you need to show progress along the way. Otherwise, what is the proof you're even heading in the right direction?

Do you just explicitly trust the manager/DoF with couple of billion £ and the hope that it will work all out in the end, no matter how shit things look on the way? What's the reasonable amount of time, to you, for making a judgement call on whether the people in charge (DoF/Manager) are doing a good job or not?
 
We took 3 points from 6 vs City last season
We took 3 points from 6 vs Arsenal last season
We took 3 points from 6 for Liverpool last season
We took 3 points from 6 vs Villa last season
We took 4 points from 6 vs Spurs last season
We took 1 point from 6 vs Newcastle last season
We took 4 points from 6 vs Chelsea last season
21 points out of 42

We've taken 0 points from 6 vs City this season
We've taken 0 points from 6 vs Arsenal this season
We've taken 2 points from 6 vs Liverpool this season
We've taken 6 points from 6 vs Villa this season
We've taken 1 points from 6 vs Spurs this season
We've taken 0 points from 3 vs Newcastle this season
We've taken 3 points from 6 vs Chelsea this season
12 points from 39

We avoided a 7-0 at Anfield this season, which is the main difference. And beat Villa away this season. We took less points than last season vs the majority of them.

Chelsea have also had injuries all season. They haven't had a fixed XI. Poch has only stumbled on a winning formula recently. He's chopped and changed all season. Their defence isn't settled either. The difference between Chelsea and us is that they're not poor in attack.

Those are damning numbers, score-wise. Still I feel that we deserved more in certain games this season (Chelsea, Arsenal for example) and deserved less in other games last season (win vs City).
 
Neville, Keane and Rooney all backing ten Hag could mean they have inside info that he'll be staying. Or maybe I'm just reading too much into it. Guess we'll have to wait until after the cup final to find out their decision.
 
Neville, Keane and Rooney all backing ten Hag could mean they have inside info that he'll be staying. Or maybe I'm just reading too much into it. Guess we'll have to wait until after the cup final to find out their decision.

Neville and Keane said the same drivel for every previous manager as well.

"hope he gets more time" "hope he gets another chance"
 
I have seen no evidence of this high press at all. High press is not just the forwards pressing, it's the whole team. Last defender being as high as the halfway line and apart from the GK and one sweeper, everyone else is pressing. I really don't see an attempt to play like that.

I see the occasional attempt by the centre backs to push up like when Evans did against Palace just before Mateta ran past him like he was a pensioner and scored. That's why you don't see it much.
 
If he's played an obvious and identifiable system/tactics, could you please do me a favour and elaborate by describing that for me? I'll make my own attempt below.



I personally really really don't see this at all. Pretty much all the top teams of the last few years, won things by pressing high, turning the ball over quickly and dominating possession. And it's not that we don't do that. It's that we don't even attempt to do that.

We have a disjointed system where the forwards do a half-committed press, while the defenders stay put. Presumably because the defenders don't have the legs to chase if the high press fails, or because the forwards don't have the stamina for continuous press, or because we lack the coordination required for a high team press, or (most likely) because of all the above. But anyway, the half-committed press rarely yields results because the gap between the pressing forwards and the sitting defence is big and the opposition can easily pick a pass through the midfield. The result is being wide open in midfield, easily played-through when one single tackle fails, and thus conceding loads of goals. A high risk, no-reward sort of tactic. Because it's not like we score a lot to compensate, we have the lowest scoring attack in the top-half of the table.

I fail to see how City, Liverpool or Arsenal play like this at all. And even moreso, I have not seen a team achieve results with this tactic. Please let me know of someone else who has, so that we know it's not just blind faith in the tactics of one man. I being polite to ETH by saying the team has no identifiable style of play. Because to say that this is the style of play he wants, is basically to admit that the man is an utter moron.

If you can't see it, that's on you. Every pundit (TV or armchair) has picked it apart. There are countless articles written by varying levels of "tactical expert" explaining it and its flaws. However, it seems you have seen it, because you've just picked it apart yourself.

I said the general structure is similar, because it is. We've obviously been far less effective than the other teams, in part, because we're not doing the same things as those teams in terms of pressing-high as a team and retaining possession. It's up to you where you fall on the scale of blaming players or blaming the specifics of the system for those failings. Again, if I were in charge, I wouldn't be gambling on the specifics of this system working with the "right" players, simply because it hasn't come close to working with the players we've got, and the manager has been too stubborn to adapt to that.

Seems like you're conflating an effective system with an identifiable one.
 
He did. Pray tell how the tactics were different from the Palace game?

I saw a better performance, except for defending that cut back.

Sorry what?

I'm not saying the performance wasn't different or better than the palace game.

I'm obviously referring to Ten Hag claiming the players finally listened to his instructions which is obviously nonsense.
 
Unless that's not the problem in which case it is a bad start.



I think he is a good coach but he has a particular way of playing in mind that he is determined to achieve. He would rather quit than compromise on that in the medium term. And when he has tried a low block he's still lost so it's not like he has much to lose. In the end there's only so much blood you can get from a stone and the squad has reached its limit. New players are the only answer and having a guy that is good at bringing them on from the youth team is pretty essential.

If the only way for Ten Hag to be any way successful after changing 60% of the squad and spending £400m+. Is to roll the dice on giving him another few years, another half a billion and another new squad. Then he isn't the guy for this job.
 
Of course it’s much harder in practice and it’s going to take at least 2-3 summer windows but it’s what has to be done. We can’t continue to make do and hope for the best with players, especially when vast majority are massively overpaid.

We have to sell/release a lot of players, sign a lot of players and be more competitive. It is an extremely difficult job for whoever replaces ETH next season and going to be a struggle for few years.

I think poor recruitment under Ten Hag and lack of CL will see us chasing our own tail for years to come in terms of trying to rebuild this squad.

There's a case to be made to get rid of most of Ten Hags signings but that's not likely. We need as you say to replace older players too. And thats a problem that compounds every year. Plus attracting quality players with no CL will be difficult.
 
I do actually think no Europe will be a net benefit to Utd next season, if that’s what happens. You very likely need players out of the door before you can bring new ones, amd that task will be made more difficult if you are playing Sunday-Thursday-Sunday for periods of the season. People always talk about how you can use the conference league to give youngsters experience, but in my experience that never actually happens, even if it was part of the plan.

It never happens I think in part because UEFA frown on teams fielding weakened sides. Undermines the integrity of their competitions. I think a few clubs have been fined for it.
 
The injuries aren't luck. They are as a result of everything else. It's partly rushing players back, partly players at 80% fitness who under a good manager would be fighting to play and partly players getting injured in training trying to practise at near matchday intensity his half baked system.

Yep I agree but I think we still got really shit luck to have so many. Someone probably has the data on sprints / 90, distance covered per 90 etc. (a symptom of shit tactics and our press getting played through).

They may be bad for the midfield / fullback but I think should mostly be ok for the CBs which is where our injury crisis has been.
 
According to understat.com we've actually outperformed our expected points in the PL this season by 11 points and should be sitting 15th with 43 points based on chances created and conceded.
We have also outperformed goals conceded by 15 goals this season and should be have conceded 71 goals in the league alone based on chances conceded. Onana and inefficient oppo strikers has given us many points this season.

Some stats and ETH:

Defenses in the PL this season:
#16 - Manchester United : 70,51 expected goals conceded.
#17 - Burnley : : 74,14 expected goals conceded.
#18 - West Ham : : 75,59 expected goals conceded.
#19 - Sheffield United : 82,51 expected goals conceded.
#20 - Luton : : 90,53 expected goals conceded.

Top 3:
#1 - Arsenal : 31,12 expected goals conceded.
#2 - City : 35,19 expected goals conceded.
#3 - Liverpool : 43,95 expected goals conceded.

Expected points in the PL this season:
#15 - Manchester United : 42,87 expected points.
#16 - West Ham : 41,12 expected points.
#17 - Wolves : 39,78 expected points.
#18 - Burnley : 32,72 expected points.
#19 - Luton : 30,22 expected points.
#20 - Sheffield United : 28,42 expected points.

Top 3:
#1 - Arsenal : 79,11 expected points.
#2 - City : 78,28 expected points.
#3 - Liverpool : 73,07 expected points.

Expected egoals scored in the PL this season:
#12 - Manchester United : 57,83 expected goals scored.

#1 - Liverpool : 87,23 expected goals scored.
#2 - City : 84,53 expected goals scored.
#3 - Arsenal : 81,18 expected goals scored.

None of the other post Fergie manager have been anywhere close to having numbers like this. Not even remotely close.

Comparing him to other post Fergie managers:

Our expected points per game since the metric was introduced in the 14/15 season:

LVG
14/15 - 1,66 xPts/90
15/16 - 1,49 xPts/90
Sacked
Total in his reign: 1,58 xPts/90

Mourinho
16/17 - 1,87 xPts/90
17/18 - 1,64 xPts/90
18/19 (GW1-17) - 1,41 xPts/90
Sacked
Total in his reign: 1,69 xPts/90

Ole
18/19 (GW18-38) - 1,81 xPts/90
19/20 - 1,87 xPts/90
20/21 - 1,73 xPts/90
21/22 (GW1-12) - 1,30 xPts/90
Sacked
Total in his reign: 1,74 xPts/90

Ragnick
21/22 (GW13-38) - 1,50 xPts/90

ETH
22/23 - 1,75 xPts/90
23/24 - 1,19 xPts/90 ......over 36 games.
Total in his reign: 1,48 xPts/90

Defensive numbers since the expected goals against were introduced:

LVG
14/15 - 1,05 xGA/90
15/16 - 1,04 xGA/90
Sacked
Total in his reign: 1,04 xGA/90

Mourinho
16/17 - 0,83 xGA/90
17/18 - 1,15 xGA/90
18/19 (GW1-17) - 1,56 xGA/90
Sacked
Total in his reign: 1,09 xGA/90

Ole
18/19 (GW18-38) - 1,23 xGA/90
19/20 - 1,00 xGA/90
20/21 - 1,10 xGA/90
21/22 (GW1-12) - 1,76 xGA/90
Sacked
Total in his reign: 1,16 xGA/90

Ragnick
21/22 (GW13-38) - 1,38 xGA/90

ETH
22/23 - 1,32 xGA/90
23/24 - 1,96 xGA/90 !!!!
Total in his reign: 1,63 xGA/90 !!!

Ole and ETH has exact equal expected goals scored per 90 stats while in charge (1,75 xG/90), the difference is that since ETH took over we have consistantly become worse at finishing (goals vs. expected goals). Since 14/15 season here's our stats for finishing:
14/15 - overperformance by 14%
15/16 - overperformance by 8%
16/17 - underperformance by 6%
17/18 - overperformance by 15%
18/19 - underperformance by 5%
19/20 - on par
20/21 - overperformance by 16%
21/22 - on par
Average 6% overperformance

Under ETH
22/23 - underperformance by 19%
23/24 - underperformance by 10%
Average 15% underperformance.

What are they doing on the training field?

Looking at the these numbers it's actually mindblowing that he still has a job here.
Really great post and thank you for taking the time to share it.

Really does highlight the level of underperformance this season and that based on that alone there can be no complaints if he’s sacked.
 
West Ham let Moyes go for being too boring and mediocre, and he's a couple of points below us in the table and they have the same xG from open play that we do.

I dont think this is appreciated enough
 
It never happens I think in part because UEFA frown on teams fielding weakened sides. Undermines the integrity of their competitions. I think a few clubs have been fined for it.

Ah cheers, I didn’t realise anyone had been fined for it.
 
West Ham let Moyes go for being too boring and mediocre, and he's a couple of points below us in the table and they have the same xG from open play that we do.

I dont think this is appreciated enough

‘Goal difference from open play’ is a metric I never knew I needed.
 
If the only way for Ten Hag to be any way successful after changing 60% of the squad and spending £400m+. Is to roll the dice on giving him another few years, another half a billion and another new squad. Then he isn't the guy for this job.

The future is a roll of the dice whoever is head coach. Ten Hag isn't surviving the summer, that much is obvious. What needs to be recognised is that the next guy will face the same problems. The potential candidates will know this perfectly well, so we will get someone crap like Southgate or an in and out mercenary like Tuchel. Then what?
 
Yep I agree but I think we still got really shit luck to have so many. Someone probably has the data on sprints / 90, distance covered per 90 etc. (a symptom of shit tactics and our press getting played through).

They may be bad for the midfield / fullback but I think should mostly be ok for the CBs which is where our injury crisis has been.

We are very unlucky with injuries. We can blame Ten Hag for rushing back Martinez, but the fact is he got clearance from his medical team. It happens all the time. De Ligt also just recovered from his injury, the Bayern medical team gave clearance and Tuchel selected him for the Real game.
 
that CL campaign would have been enough for the sack at most elite clubs

I'd have actually been enough for the sack at most non-elite clubs too. Said it the other day, if he were managing champions of Poland and had that exact campaign, getting knocked out from Europe altogether by underwhelming Galatasaray and Copenhagen while conceding 16 goals, he'd definitely be questioned at very least.

At clubs like Porto, Shakhtar, Roma he'd get most likely fired. At any genuinely elite club he'd not be in the dugout for the Bayern game.
 
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