Could we please start investing in PL-proven talents again?

Just avoid anyone slow as feck who cant shoot for a damn with names that rhyme with Birkzee.
 
It can't be nonsense. It's at the very least an indicator.

I'm just skeptical of that claim. The top 4 club that's probably signed more PL proven players than any other says ignore Premier League proven.

And as others have said, it's worked brilliantly for them.
It doesn't say 'don't sign from the EPL' though. It just says that EPL experience by itself shouldn't be an argument for or against a player.

I also don't see the point more generally. United just finished a pretty good window, where all five big signings came from outside the EPL and are currently on track for at least a 4-in-5 success rate (if Yoro fulfills his promise and Zirkzee continues to disappoint). That's a pretty amazing hit rate for any club ever.

More than any single overriding factor in players, it seems to me the answer to transfer problems is always mixing a good process to identify needs with good scouting and analytics. Which sounds obvious, but somehow United managed to butcher exactly that since Ferguson left.
 
We never stopped.
We offered 60m odd for Branthwaithe in the summer. By most accounts we were keen to bring Olise in. We bought Mount last season.
Were not the most attractive club in the league by a mile anymore. No one in the league is short on money. Ipswich spent 120m in the summer and looking at the players its not with the expectation of staying up. They can just spend 120m.
Its no protection from making a bad signing anyway as the numerous poor pl signings over the last decade show.
 
Look at what we've just paid for Casemiro, Yoro and Antony.

Wherever we shop, it isn't cheap.

Maybe the Scandinavian countries. You can get a decent deal there.

The continent being cheaper idea went out the window a while ago.
Antony was a stupid transfer no matter how you look at it, Yoro is a world-class potential talent, and Casemiro was another stupid transfer but had the pedigree.

The fact we've been awful at signing players doesn't mean there's no value for money out there. See how other top clubs sign their players and for how much.
 
Not sure what point is being made here, to be honest. We never stopped being interested in Premier League proven players in the 23—26 age group. Things simply haven't worked out for us on that front, vis-à-vis certain other clubs, for a myriad reasons. At any rate, Manchester City is the absolute benchmark of Premier League football for the last decade-ish. We should not follow any particular club's example and we shouldn't inorganically mimic any particular club's approach (a club like Manchester United, with its scale and pedigree, should do things its own way, in accordance with its own well-considered and well-implemented institutional principles), but for comparison's sake and from what I can tell, in the post-Ferguson era, we've signed as many Premier League proven players in the 23—26 age group as them...
  • Manchester City: Bony, Delph, Aké, Grealish (De Bruyne had Premier League experience but was not Premier League proven, and Sterling, Stones, Mahrez, Walker, Grealish, Roberts, Kovačić, Phillips were younger than 23 or older than 26 at the time of signing.)
  • Manchester United: Mata, Fellaini, Schneiderlin, Lukaku, Maguire (Pogba had Premier League experience but was not Premier League proven, and Sánchez, Matić, Shaw, Wan-Bissaka, Grant, Eriksen, Evans were younger than 23 or older than 26 at the time of signing.)
From a superficial perspective, our primary issue is not having a consistent and robust intitutional vision with regard to the actual sporting side of things, and improper or unfortunate decision-making in the uppermost echelons of the club (i.e., the Glazers). Which has a structural, trickle-down effect, as regards recruitment, on the whole. From the Premier League and from abroad, in terms of top brass executives, players, coaches, analysts and other staff — we've promoted and acquired the wrong people, fostered a dysfunctional culture, and made improper or unfortunate choices time and again (or sometimes made the right choices in the wrong moment or thrust them into the wrong environment).

Given our luck, we probably would have signed Salah and jeopardized his potential by playing him with a poacher style No. 9, a No. 10 who monopolizes all risk-taking and an uncreative wide forward on the left flank in an incoherently constructed attack. We've been stuck in a seemingly endless rut, permeating practically every segment of the club, and much of what could have gone wrong has gone wrong (from surrending our position as the standard bearers of Premier League football, to Guardiola and Klopp joining our rivals and watching some of the best players in the world follow suit), and somehow need to claw our way back to the top (hopefully the change starts now, with Berrada, Amorim and company.)

In the present and in the future, Manchester United should strive to sign the best players and talents, with the right mentality and application and technique and athleticism (with a bigger emphasis on data than managerial connections), from all over while attempting to, as much as practically possible, extract good value for money. Full stop. Statistically speaking, some of them are bound to be Premier League proven given the sheer strength of the league in the contemporary period, no doubt about that. And others are going to be from La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and beyond.

P.S. What Ferguson did during his tenure should have little bearing on our recruitment strategy. It was a different time and Premier League environment; one might even argue that, in some remote sense, we were to the Premier League what Bayern Munich is to the Bundesliga. We were the dominant leaders of the pack and trusted guarantors of success, with competition mostly being swept away, Fergie's own allure was overwhelming with lots of highly talented players gravitating towards him, we could cannibalize other clubs in the manner that is no longer possible (e.g., we picked off Tottenham's best central midfielder for £15 million and one of the biggest talents in the history of English football for just £30 million), and so forth. Same league, but two very different realities — and crucially, Manchester United of the 1990s and 2000s is not the Manchester United of the 2020s.
 
The irony of the OP is that none of those four players were "homegrown", all four were signed from other clubs.

Rayan Ait-Nouri - signed for £9.8m from Angers

Jarred Branthwaite - signed from Carlisle for £500K

Murillo - signed from Corinthians for £12m

Matheus Cunha - signed from Atletico Madrid for £35m

So the answer is not to focus on signing from PL teams necessarily, its to get better at scouting and take more calculated gambles.

For two decades, the top two or three teams could poach the best players from the likes of Tottenham, Newcastle, West Ham etc...such was their financial advantage. This led to United in particular becoming incredibly lazy with our scouting - and to be honest, it made a degree of sense. Why gamble on unknown players when we could let others take the risk and poach the best few?

Over the last decade, we have really failed to wise up and understand the change in dynamic. We have famously missed out on so many big talents for nominal fees...Martinelli, Caicedo and Duran, for a combined £15m, for a start.

Personally, I don't really ever want to see us spend £50m+ on a player again, unless we know, without doubt, that were signing a "final piece of the jigsaw"-type, like when Liverpool signed Van Dijk, or Arsenal with Rice.

There's really no need to do it. There aren't 'just' 20 or 30 elite footballers around the World. Many players can be elite, in the right system, with the right coach, in the right team.

My view - sign more players, sign cheaper players. Take more gambles. Fail faster and move them on quickly when it doesn't work. Obviously move forward with the lads that do work out, rinse repeat until you have a very strong squad...and only then think about the one of two "must-have" players who would take the team from very good to elite.
 
(e.g., we picked off Tottenham's best central midfielder for £15 million and one of the biggest talents in the history of English football for just £30 million)

£30 mill in 2003 was a huge amount of money. Man Utds revenue at the time was about £150 mill a year. Today it is £600 mill. If we spent the same share of our revenue today on one player it would equal £120 mill.
 
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Sterling, Stones,
True. But both had a similar amount of experience in the PL as you would expect from a player at 23-24. They were not a AWB with less than 3000 minutes.

I’m not saying it should be a black and white rule to only buy players from the PL between 23 and 26. I’m saying it should be a guideline to make a priority. Furthermore, I would argue there should be an even stronger guideline to be careful spending big amounts on young, unproven talents from abroad. And an even stronger rule not to pay big money for players that likely will be worth zero at the end of the contract (Sanchez, Matic, Casemiro, Varane etc).
 
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Not really bothered where the player comes from.

Not completely sold on the fact that players from English clubs cost a lot more either, plenty of examples of players being brought from outside the league that cost a pretty penny. Seems like it's all down to indvidual circumstance. Length of contract a big one, how much that club wants to keep him etc. For every Grealish there's an Antony, for every Odegaard a Palmer.

We obviously have more competition for domestic talent right now, that's not good. Would rather join Liverpool, Arsenal, City or Chelsea than United right now if I'm playing for Palace or similar. Would not be desperate to move away from Villa, Spurs or Newcastle to join us if things are going well on a personal level. At one time players would have been.
 
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The irony of the OP is that none of those four players were "homegrown", all four were signed from other clubs.

Rayan Ait-Nouri - signed for £9.8m from Angers

Jarred Branthwaite - signed from Carlisle for £500K

Murillo - signed from Corinthians for £12m

Matheus Cunha - signed from Atletico Madrid for £35m

It is not irony. It is the point.
 
Not sure what point is being made here, to be honest. We never stopped being interested in Premier League proven players in the 23—26 age group. Things simply haven't worked out for us on that front, vis-à-vis certain other clubs, for a myriad reasons. At any rate, Manchester City is the absolute benchmark of Premier League football for the last decade-ish. We should not follow any particular club's example and we shouldn't inorganically mimic any particular club's approach (a club like Manchester United, with its scale and pedigree, should do things its own way, in accordance with its own well-considered and well-implemented institutional principles), but for comparison's sake and from what I can tell, in the post-Ferguson era, we've signed as many Premier League proven players in the 23—26 age group as them...
  • Manchester City: Bony, Delph, Aké, Grealish (De Bruyne had Premier League experience but was not Premier League proven, and Sterling, Stones, Mahrez, Walker, Grealish, Roberts, Kovačić, Phillips were younger than 23 or older than 26 at the time of signing.)
  • Manchester United: Mata, Fellaini, Schneiderlin, Lukaku, Maguire (Pogba had Premier League experience but was not Premier League proven, and Sánchez, Matić, Shaw, Wan-Bissaka, Grant, Eriksen, Evans were younger than 23 or older than 26 at the time of signing.)
From a superficial perspective, our primary issue is not having a consistent and robust intitutional vision with regard to the actual sporting side of things, and improper or unfortunate decision-making in the uppermost echelons of the club (i.e., the Glazers). Which has a structural, trickle-down effect, as regards recruitment, on the whole. From the Premier League and from abroad, in terms of top brass executives, players, coaches, analysts and other staff — we've promoted and acquired the wrong people, fostered a dysfunctional culture, and made improper or unfortunate choices time and again (or sometimes made the right choices in the wrong moment or thrust them into the wrong environment).

Given our luck, we probably would have signed Salah and jeopardized his potential by playing him with a poacher style No. 9, a No. 10 who monopolizes all risk-taking and an uncreative wide forward on the left flank in an incoherently constructed attack. We've been stuck in a seemingly endless rut, permeating practically every segment of the club, and much of what could have gone wrong has gone wrong (from surrending our position as the standard bearers of Premier League football, to Guardiola and Klopp joining our rivals and watching some of the best players in the world follow suit), and somehow need to claw our way back to the top (hopefully the change starts now, with Berrada, Amorim and company.)

In the present and in the future, Manchester United should strive to sign the best players and talents, with the right mentality and application and technique and athleticism (with a bigger emphasis on data than managerial connections), from all over while attempting to, as much as practically possible, extract good value for money. Full stop. Statistically speaking, some of them are bound to be Premier League proven given the sheer strength of the league in the contemporary period, no doubt about that. And others are going to be from La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1 and beyond.

P.S. What Ferguson did during his tenure should have little bearing on our recruitment strategy. It was a different time and Premier League environment; one might even argue that, in some remote sense, we were to the Premier League what Bayern Munich is to the Bundesliga. We were the dominant leaders of the pack and trusted guarantors of success, with competition mostly being swept away, Fergie's own allure was overwhelming with lots of highly talented players gravitating towards him, we could cannibalize other clubs in the manner that is no longer possible (e.g., we picked off Tottenham's best central midfielder for £15 million and one of the biggest talents in the history of English football for just £30 million), and so forth. Same league, but two very different realities — and crucially, Manchester United of the 1990s and 2000s is not the Manchester United of the 2020s.

Trying to think in the last 5 years or so who we've signed in that bracket if we haven't stopped. Mount and Maguire?
 
Trying to think in the last 5 years or so who we've signed in that bracket if we haven't stopped. Mount and Maguire?
Being interested in ≠ who we've managed to sign when push's come to shove, to be fair.

For whatever reason(s), some of which were in our control and some of which were out our control: Glazers not releasing the money for specific moves, timing not being in our favor, in-situ manager prefering someone else and maybe being in disagreement with scouts, player in question being more drawn to another club and sporting project, et cetera.

At various points over the last 5 years, we have considered quite a few Premier League players in the 23—26 age group, including Declan Rice, Jack Grealish, David Raya and the likes, so we definitely haven't decided to ignore that profile.
Declan Rice has been linked with a number of clubs in recent weeks, including Manchester United and Arsenal. A report from The Athletic claims that the Red Devils will not be able to afford him if the asking price remains around £100 million.
Grealish was targeted by former Manchester United manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer during the summer transfer window last year, but the playmaker opted to stay at Villa Park and signed a new long-term contract until 2025. "I was really close to going, but nothing happened in the end," he told the Daily Telegraph. "We played United in a pre-season game on Saturday and I wasn't supposed to play in a cup game at Burton. "But after the United game I said to Christian Purslow [Aston Villa's chief executive] and my agent 'if I'm not leaving, I'll sign my new contract'.
Liverpool and Manchester United are understood to be among clubs interested in signing the Argentinian World Cup winner ahead of the summer transfer window. The Athletic reported last week that the contract signed by Mac Allister in October until 2025, with the option of a further year for Brighton, contains a mechanism to help facilitate a move for the midfielder with a say for the club in the outcome.
 
Being interested in ≠ who we've managed to sign when push's come to shove, to be fair.

For whatever reason(s), some of which were in our control and some of which were out our control: Glazers not releasing the money for specific moves, timing not being in our favor, in-situ manager prefering someone else and maybe being in disagreement with scouts, player in question being more drawn to another club and sporting project, et cetera.

At various points over the last 5 years, we have considered quite a few Premier League players in the 23—26 age group, including Declan Rice, Jack Grealish, David Raya and the likes, so we definitely haven't decided to ignore that profile.

OK but you couldn't see the point. The point is can we start investing in them. Not can we start creating some reported interest. You're right the latter hasn't stopped. But that's not what the OP is asking for.
 
Two questions:

1. Are there any statistical evidence that players from this league do better than players overseas? I mean, the points about tempo, physicality and adaption make sense, but can they be backed up?

2. Do we have a world class scouting department that use data analytics like other modern clubs? I have just assumed so, but I have no idea.
 
Two questions:

1. Are there any statistical evidence that players from this league do better than players overseas? I mean, the points about tempo, physicality and adaption make sense, but can they be backed up?

2. Do we have a world class scouting department that use data analytics like other modern clubs? I have just assumed so, but I have no idea.

 
It is not irony. It is the point.
Well I am clearly missing the point then, because none of those four players were signed from other PL clubs and only one is British.

I thought the point of the OP was to advise a "buy PL proven quality players" but if we were to pursue that strategy, we would now be paying £200m for four players who were bought for under £60m.
 
Same, it has to be finding the middle ground of PL Proven & internationally known talents. Mixing the athletic part with football IQ.

Someone like Cunha or youngsters like Branthwaite/Kerkez would be awesome to track for the summer window. But we also have to keep an eye on Championship talens like Chris Rigg or Jobe Bellingham.
 
Just sign good players who are ambitious and fit your style. Doesn’t matter if they come from the premier league or from China.
 
It's been far from perfect but if we're to pick the better signings since Fergie the majority would be from the Prem.

Bruno is the best but after him, I'd say it's Prem proven players who've given us most.

People mock Maguire and AWB but they immediately improved us. Compare to Rojo, Darmian, Lindelof, Bailly etc.

The price difference is insane though. Maguire and AWB cost £130m.

Darmian, Dalot, Mazraoui & Malacia cost around £60m vs AWB for £55m. That’s four shots at getting it right or a deeper squad for the same investment.

The likes of De Ligt, Bailly, Lindelof, Rojo & Varane all cost under £40m. Rojo was £16m. That’s at least two cracks at getting it right for one Maguire.

Transfer strategy should involve all profiles of player. Primarily younger players who are about the enter their prime but also at the right time a player at their peak. Rooney, Ronaldo, Ferdinand but also an RVP now and again.

In general there is still some value in the market.

- outside of the top 5 leagues in places like Portugal, Austria, Sweden, Denmark you can find young player with high potential. These are the kinds of signings red bull make or Brighton.
- expiring contracts or down to the final two years
- players with release clauses
- relegated teams across Europe & PL
 
The irony of the OP is that none of those four players were "homegrown", all four were signed from other clubs.

Rayan Ait-Nouri - signed for £9.8m from Angers

Jarred Branthwaite - signed from Carlisle for £500K

Murillo - signed from Corinthians for £12m

Matheus Cunha - signed from Atletico Madrid for £35m

So the answer is not to focus on signing from PL teams necessarily, its to get better at scouting and take more calculated gambles.

For two decades, the top two or three teams could poach the best players from the likes of Tottenham, Newcastle, West Ham etc...such was their financial advantage. This led to United in particular becoming incredibly lazy with our scouting - and to be honest, it made a degree of sense. Why gamble on unknown players when we could let others take the risk and poach the best few?

Over the last decade, we have really failed to wise up and understand the change in dynamic. We have famously missed out on so many big talents for nominal fees...Martinelli, Caicedo and Duran, for a combined £15m, for a start.

Personally, I don't really ever want to see us spend £50m+ on a player again, unless we know, without doubt, that were signing a "final piece of the jigsaw"-type, like when Liverpool signed Van Dijk, or Arsenal with Rice.

There's really no need to do it. There aren't 'just' 20 or 30 elite footballers around the World. Many players can be elite, in the right system, with the right coach, in the right team.

My view - sign more players, sign cheaper players. Take more gambles. Fail faster and move them on quickly when it doesn't work. Obviously move forward with the lads that do work out, rinse repeat until you have a very strong squad...and only then think about the one of two "must-have" players who would take the team from very good to elite.
Using Liverpool as an example, we need to build a solid base as they did with Robertson, Milner etc before adding the expensive cherry on top.

The problem is that PL players aren’t gonna cost less than 30m, and players like Malacia cost 12m. It’s still going to be expensive to raise our base level
 
What we really have to avoid is obsessing on certain targets with "United Tax". If it's obvious from get go that the selling club is asking us insane money which seemingly has "United Tax" included, then we have to drop them fast and not seemingly stay lingering around. The cases of Sancho, Maguire etc seemingly had United tax on their transfer. Because we were obsessed with them and there really wasn't anyone else going to buy them at window.

Like Chelsea had to pay insane for Caiceido because they were in bidding war with Liverpool. Or Lavia.

That is so easy to say, but that needs us to have very strong will and proper structure to identify targets.
 
Well I am clearly missing the point then, because none of those four players were signed from other PL clubs and only one is British.

I thought the point of the OP was to advise a "buy PL proven quality players" but if we were to pursue that strategy, we would now be paying £200m for four players who were bought for under £60m.

These clubs have signed a bunch of players. Very few of them look very good in the PL. It is hard, and time consuming, to find a new Branthwaite from League One. It would probably entail signing twenty players where nineteen fail.

The point is using other PL-clubs to find out what players are actually good in the PL.
 


So we can safely say then Jon Murtough's 100 new data analyst per week was a lie. That nothing was being done during his time and that most fans who, back in the day, bought his cool aid were wrong.
 
Aside from football skills we should put more weight on mentality. Brentford have an expressed “no dickhead policy” and I think Amorim wants that too.
 
EPL clubs sell on a premium and we simply lack the cash. So unless

a- there's a new Rio or Rooney out there (wonderkids whose talent is worth in gold)
b- there's a bargain (players are near to the end of contract or their club has got relegated)

then we shouldn't even consider it.

If you ask me we should have a transfer strategy of what the squad should look like that is in line to our vision and to what does well in the EPL. For example buying tiny CBs in a physical league were half of the squad is 6ft2+ tall doesn't really make sense. Else you have some silly episodes going on like Martinez jumping for the ball and reaching Milenkovic knee.

Football is becoming incredible intense and physical. Add that to our lack of funds and our inability to constantly pump 400m a year in the squad (thus rebuild will take time). Then we should go for young players whose hungry for success, can run all day and will hit their peak when we do.

Finally let's get rid off the lazy and the aholes and let's make sure that we don't add more lazy and aholes.
 
The price difference is insane though. Maguire and AWB cost £130m.

Darmian, Dalot, Mazraoui & Malacia cost around £60m vs AWB for £55m. That’s four shots at getting it right or a deeper squad for the same investment.

The likes of De Ligt, Bailly, Lindelof, Rojo & Varane all cost under £40m. Rojo was £16m. That’s at least two cracks at getting it right for one Maguire.

Transfer strategy should involve all profiles of player. Primarily younger players who are about the enter their prime but also at the right time a player at their peak. Rooney, Ronaldo, Ferdinand but also an RVP now and again.

In general there is still some value in the market.

- outside of the top 5 leagues in places like Portugal, Austria, Sweden, Denmark you can find young player with high potential. These are the kinds of signings red bull make or Brighton.
- expiring contracts or down to the final two years
- players with release clauses
- relegated teams across Europe & PL

There's no doubt we overpaid for Maguire and AWB but that was just United being stupid as opposed to a Prem League tax.

But we also did that with Antony, Hojlund, Casemiro. Possibly Martinez. Maybe even Yoro.

You've also compared fees from different eras there.

When we signed Lindelof we could have got Maguire for half the price from Hull.

This idea there's always a Prem League tax is a bit outdated for me.

Although the bigger part of this for me is the age bracket the OP mentions. Crucial I think.
 
It’s not as though we haven’t invested in players from the Premier League. The problem, unfortunately, has been the lack of strategy and cohesion in our recruitment. Whether sourcing players from the EPL or overseas, our approach has often felt rushed and disjointed.

What’s particularly concerning is that, since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement, we could probably count on one hand the number of players who have truly been successful. That speaks volumes about the challenges we’ve faced in building a team capable of sustained success. Doesn't help when constantly changing manager, too.

With Sir Jim Ratcliffe now involved, there’s a sense of optimism as he’s assembled a team of experienced football professionals to steer the club in the right direction. However, it’s fair to say the start hasn’t been flawless. The departure of Ashworth and a few questionable signings have raised concerns. Even so, I’m hopeful that this structure will benefit us in the long run.

The key now is getting recruitment right. A couple of strong transfer windows could make all the difference. But it’s absolutely vital that we focus on bringing in players who fit the right profile and align with the long-term vision of the club. That’s the only way we’ll get back to where we belong.
 
Kudus, Wharton, Ferguson, Branthwaite, Baleba, Murillo, Cunha, Durán, Dibling, Huijsen, etc. there's plenty of great talents available in the Premier League. New ones appear regularly too.

I'd argue that paying a premium is worth it for many of them too. However the premium talents from other leagues cost a lot too.

It really depends on the specific player and their asking price whether it's worth shopping within the league or not. Some of them will be worth it, whilst some of them will have unrealistic price tags.

Generally, I'd say it is definitely something United should be doing, but that doesn't mean we should pay 100m for Joao Pedro, for example. However, I do think United could've and probably should've paid the asking prices for some of the likes of Amadou Onana, Palhinha, Rice, Caicedo, White, and I'm probably forgetting some players. We would be much better off with two of these players than ending up with the likes of Varane and Casemiro.

Do posters still want Wharton for 50-100mil or Ferguson for 80mil? :nervous:
Yes. Both are worth it.
 
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The opposite :lol: (Or not)

- Sign a long-term problem
- Sign "no experience"
- Sign "he doesn’t know the league"
- Sign suitable for style
- Sign "we can’t fix him".
And don't forget:

- Doesn't want to be here
 
Using Liverpool as an example, we need to build a solid base as they did with Robertson, Milner etc before adding the expensive cherry on top.

The problem is that PL players aren’t gonna cost less than 30m, and players like Malacia cost 12m. It’s still going to be expensive to raise our base level
There's nothing wrong with signing a Malacia for £12m though at all. The "wrong" thing, is to cling on to them and hope they "come good", rather than ship them out after 6-12 months when they don't hit the level required.

I keep talking about two key concepts which should underpin football transfers.

1) Being able to "fail fast', which is a term originally used in software development. The idea being that you need to be able to write code, deploy it, test it and then repeat the process quickly to iron out bugs, add new features or go back to the drawing board if needs be.

Businesses who do this have a masssive advantage over their slower moving rivals, not because they get it right more often but because they can get it wrong until they get it right without it slowing them down.

2) Opportunity Cost. A term used in Economics to describe the cost of "choices not made". For example, the opportunity cost of buying a new car might be not paying off your mortgage sooner and incurring more interest as a result. The opportunity cost of paying £80m for Maguire or £90m for Pogba is huge. You could sign 4 or 5 young players for that. So you need to nail it.

I hope that people can see how these should both apply to football transfers.

If you sign Gyokeres, you damn well need him to be a massive success, because if he's anything less, you fail and you fail slowly. He'd be on a big, long term contract and would cost a massive fee that you'd never recoup. We have made this mistake many times...Pogba, Sancho, Maguire, Martial, Rashford, Sanchez etc...

Signing a lad like Malacia for £12m...OK, he's rubbish...so sell him after 6-12 months, take your £12m back and try again, and again, and again...until you find your Andy Robertson. Opportunity cost is low, you can 'fail fast'.

It's why I won't criticise the Zirkzee signing. He's well regarded in Italy, he's not on huge money, he's young and he has clear technical ability. If he doesn't work out, we sell him in Summer and get most of our money back. The mistake (which we've also made many times) is holding on to a player too long when they clearly DONT have what it takes.

It's another reason I get so frustrated when we pass on signings like Caicedo, Duran and Martinelli. The 'opportunity cost' of signing them is virtually nil and you can 'fail fast' should they not succeed.
 
These clubs have signed a bunch of players. Very few of them look very good in the PL. It is hard, and time consuming, to find a new Branthwaite from League One. It would probably entail signing twenty players where nineteen fail.

The point is using other PL-clubs to find out what players are actually good in the PL.
Yes, and that's the key point isn't it...you used to be able to do that, now you can't.

In 2004, it was a perfectly viable (arguably optimal) strategy. Let Everton, West Ham and Leeds waste time scouring the lower leagues, signing flop after flop until they eventually hit the big time...and then take that player from them for £20/25m.

Nowadays it's not possible. IF the player wants to join, and IF we can convince these clubs to sell at all, you're looking at crazy fees...and I am accounting for inflation there...£20/25m for a world class star like Rooney or Ferdinand in the early 2000s was a big fee but those players might cost over £100m now...Rooney arguably more as a forward after his breakthrough European Championships with England. You might pay £150m+

Most PL clubs in the 00s needed to sell to balance the books. Not the case now with the huge TV deals.

Unfortunately, we now have to get good at identifying players early, signing them quickly and moving the lads out who don't succeed quickly.

Cherry picking three top talents a year from our rivals won't work and would cost billions of pounds.
 
Yes, and that's the key point isn't it...you used to be able to do that, now you can't.

It has been repeated for years. But during Klopps five first year they invested 50 % of their funds in the PL. Same with Arteta.

For the past five windows Man Utd have invested close to €900 mill. €65 mill in the PL. Less than 10 percent.
 
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I was thinking about this the other day. Our team versus Spurs had no British or Irish players in the starting 11 and only Eriksen who had previously played in the premier league before us I think. That’s not ideal and most of the top teams now have a strong sprinkling of British talent.

The problem is that I then struggle to work out who we could easily sign to rectify this who would be good enough. The conclusion I generally come to is that we need to start focussing on players who are approaching the end of their contract and/or put pressure on repeatedly for players we think are good enough.

Let’s take Branthwaite for example. His contract expires in 2027 when he’s 25. If we think he’s the ideal CB signing, keep making it clear that we want him. If we, say, get him for £30m in summer 2026 then that’s a great signing. Get him on a free in 2027 and even better. It’s long term planning and takes more effort but it seems to work for Real and there’s no reason we can’t adopt a similar approach.