I think the reason for the investigation, the findings coming out of it, are quite simple. Some people within the responsible bodies of football did their job. They looked through the books, did their research, collected evidence and then they did what the rules say: they charged City for their wrongdoings. I don’t believe there are any sinister motives at play for what has unfolded today. Up until right now, the investigation has probably progressed the way it should or close to it.
But now that the investigation is being handed over, that’s where the games really start, or better said, escalate. Because in the background, City won’t have stood still. They will have prepared. They will have hired the right law firms, consultants and private investigators. They will likely have conducted their own surveillance, gathered kompromat, bribed the right people, and created monetary and institutional dependencies and developed all sorts of relations to people in power.
And now they will start to bring all this together. They will activate their political capital, their own findings, all these dependencies and so on and incredible pressure will be put on those in charge of the decision making.
And that’s where the investigation will start to crumble, where the sentencing will start to become a farce and where they will ultimately prevail.
What people need to understand is the scale of what the whole of English football is up against. This is not a club. And it’s not a business or billionaire. This is a whole country. A country that sees sportswashing as a central tool for their foreign policy, their defense and their business relations. This has absolutely nothing to do with football other than that it is a tool to achieve their goals.
And from their perspective, they depend on it. They need it. The money they spent on it, both officially and behind closed doors, serves a purpose that’s borderline existential in their minds. They will pull any levers at their disposal. Activate any political contacts they have. And once that happens, I see barely any chance for English football to win this thing. They are outmatched. They lost this fight the second they allowed sportswashing into the league. Now far too many people depend on the money, the power structure and all other things Abu Dhabi brings to the table.