Canadian Politics
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So Ford is going to call early elections in Ontario next Wednesday. The reason he's giving is that strong measures will be needed against Trump's likely tarifs and he wants a strong mandate for those.
Politicians like talking like this ('I need a new mandate'), but do people ever believe them? I mean, we have elections every four years to give people a mandate for the next four years. Why would that mandate be any weaker three years in? It seems such a politicians' argument, but I suppose it polls well with voters? Otherwise they'd stop saying it, right...?
Politicians like talking like this ('I need a new mandate'), but do people ever believe them? I mean, we have elections every four years to give people a mandate for the next four years. Why would that mandate be any weaker three years in? It seems such a politicians' argument, but I suppose it polls well with voters? Otherwise they'd stop saying it, right...?
He obviously knows that with the 25% tariffs things can go tits up for him in 1 year. That is why. And at the same time he presents himself like a unified option against trump.
I wonder also what a regional politicians can do "against Trump"
Yeah, it's pretty transparent of course. And his strong language against the tariffs so far has probably boosted his popularity, while the eventual outcome of the RCMP corruption probe in relation to the Toronto greenbelt project will do the opposite.
For the tariffs, Ford has probably been the most vocal Canadian politician about needing a strong response, and has taken a leadership role in that among his fellow PMs and the federal government as well (and has taken on Smith in the process). That doesn't really answer your question I guess; but Ontario has a lot of continuous direct business with the US, including integrated supply chains for the auto industry, so the province does have leverage of its own. But of course, you stand strongest together, which has also been the focus so far. (And I know the economic entanglement works both ways. Tariffs seem like a terrible idea.)
definitely 25% tariffs will hurt everyone but as I said in another thread, I think is just a measure as much pressure to ensure that poilievre have a absolute majority this 2025 as they are ideologically aligned.
Mexico will be a bit hard as they still have more than 5 years till next elections
Well, when even Trudeau says that in a hot mic, shit becomes a notch scarier
That post had a small kernel of one or two facts (that Canada had relatively high immigration over a few years) wrapped in a thick layer of absolute bullshit. That poster's perspective is not a popular one here in Canada, and their depiction of Canada is very far from reality. If a pair of short cell phone videos depicting 2 street corners are enough is enough to convince you of everything that poster was asserting, you should be very worried about your critical thinking skills.
Has Trump rejuvenated Canadian patriotism?
Very much. The US anthem has also been loudly booed at NHL and NBA games, and during the 4 Nations hockey tournament.
The combination between Trudeau stepping back, all the candidates for his replacement promising to scrap the carbon tax, and Trump's actions against Canada have also completely messed up the Conversative game plan: Poilievre now can't keep blaming everything on Trudeau anymore (especially with the Liberal frontrunners being Mark Carney, who has never run for the Liberals before, and Chrystia Freeland, who left her job because of her disagreement with Trudeau), his Axe the Tax slogan has become pointless (everyone agrees), and he can't keep saying that everything is broken in Canada (that's not what people want to hear when they're coming together in patriotism). (See also this CBC article.)
He's instead going with 'Canada First' now, but I'm not sure how that is supposed to make the Conservatives stand out: if there is one thing that all parties now agree on, it's exactly that. Maybe Poilievre thinks it will help if the Conservatives shout it loudest? In the meantime, surveys suggest that the Liberals under Carney might erase most of the giant Conservative lead in the polls. They are still by far most likely to win, but the upcoming elections just got a whole lot more interesting.
Trump sabotaging Canadian conservatives is quite funny...
It's not just Trump, but yeah. Although in Ontario, Doug Ford (also a conservative) has gained a lot of standing due to his strong stance on tariffs, and is making the most of that by calling for early elections. So he's actually benefiting from the situation.
Either way though, there is absolutely no sign that this tariff war would be going any differently if the Conservatives were in charge of Canada (as some have claimed): they oppose the tariffs as strongly as everybody else, and Trump doesn't seem to be in it for a change in Canadian politics, but for economic reasons.
I live just west of downtown Ottawa and visited the trucker occupation of downtown most days. Your recollections do not match mine at all.
The protesters were overwhelmingly white (this from the Ottawa People’s Commission, which produced a report into the protests: “While convoy organizers claimed there was diversity among the participants and supporters, and that was true to a limited extent, it is clear that the overwhelming majority of people involved in the protests were white males.")
and the protest was more about hating Trudeau than about ‘freedom’ from mask or vax mandates (which had actually been imposed by the US administration, not Canada). There were a number of confederate flags there, a lot of the funding came from right wing US sources. Some protestors desecrated the National War Memorial.
Had the truckers made their point and gone home I would have supported their right to protest, but instead they occupied a city centre and shut down the nation’s capital for weeks. That’s not an acceptable form of protest and most Canadians agree: according to polling, most Canadians did not support the occupation. https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/15/poli...u-support-oppose-truckers-mandates/index.html
For a couple of years PP was able to get support by just not being Trudeau. But with Trudeau now gone and that orange thing in the White House, the calculus has changed dramatically. Now PP’s up against Carney, who is a much stronger candidate and the onus has shifted from years of LPC’s fecklessness to trumps tariffs, and many people think Carney is a safer pair of hands at this critical moment.
PP is not just not very likeable, he’s actively disliked, even by conservatives who know him well. I golf with a bunch of guys, mostly conservatives, who know him well (one’s writing a biography of him) and, to a man, they can’t stand him.
A Leger poll dated Feb 11th now puts Carney and PP as neck and neck, from a 20+ point margin just a few months back.
PP is not just not very likeable, he’s actively disliked, even by conservatives who know him well. I golf with a bunch of guys, mostly conservatives, who know him well (one’s writing a biography of him) and, to a man, they can’t stand him.
A Leger poll dated Feb 11th now puts Carney and PP as neck and neck, from a 20+ point margin just a few months back.
I agree in everything that you said, but certainly I support any protest that paralyzes the country if the protests are warranted. No protest that don't bother achieve anything. If the truckers would have gone it would be just a parade and forgotten 1 day after. didn't support the reason of the protest but fully supported they way they protest
Who decides whether a protest is warranted? There's currently a protest about Canada selling live horses to Japan to be slaughtered for meat. Personally, I think that's a great cause, but should we be able to 'paralyze the country' to make our point? Absolutely not. In a democracy my right to protest can't trump someone else's right to go about their business peaceably.
The truckers would have had a much more sympathetic hearing if they had protested for a weekend: shutting Ottawa down and blaring the air horns, then tidying up and going home. Showing they were capable of shutting things down would have been an eloquent statement, but instead they lost a lot of that sympathy by just becoming a small handful of political malcontents (who had just lost the election) intent on disrupting people's lives and livelihoods. It became obvious that the protest wasn't about vaccines at all; these guys just hated Trudeau.
In your scenario, the loudest, most angry and aggressive people would prevail in our society. With respect, that sounds like a bad idea.
And the people with the biggest tools. I mean, if these people hadn't had those trucks, they wouldn't have been able to settle down the way they did in the first place.
I agree with @4bars that people should be able to demonstrate and all that, but in practice, there is a lot of inequity involved in how and how long people are able to demonstrate. I don't want to apply downward equity here by disempowering everyone, and I don't know what my limit would be; it would be a philosophical debate about under what circumstances and with what kind of support different types of protest are justified. (These people will say they were protesting fundamental injustice and overreach from the side of the government, which would be an important cause if true.) But either way, being able to block downtown and parliament in these particular circumstances seems well beyond the upper threshold.
You absolutely have a point here, in the end is difficult to determine who would have the right or how much or how long but my belief is that demostrations are too watered down to matter anything and i would rather prefer that they are a bit too much than this watered version.
Demonatrations should be a way more powerful tool and to be this powereful tool, should be more disruptive than what they are regardless if i agree or not with it. And trust me, if i would suffer it i would curse them too but at the same time i would still believe on their rights
Canada beat the USA - new tariffs incoming
Would have been amazing if the US anthem would have sound when the medals were givenCanada beat the USA - new tariffs incoming
I feel like the two matches with the US deserve to be played in full in this thread. It's as political as it gets, all of it. They were fighting within seconds in that first match!Canada beat the USA - new tariffs incoming
Canada is having a moment. Trumps tarrifs and Carney taking the leadership could lead to a Liberal win.
https://bsky.app/profile/drjennings.bsky.social/post/3lizvjkgtac2o
https://bsky.app/profile/drjennings.bsky.social/post/3lizvjkgtac2o
Canada is having a moment. Trumps tarrifs and Carney taking the leadership could lead to a Liberal win.
https://bsky.app/profile/drjennings.bsky.social/post/3lizvjkgtac2o
feck poilievre. I guess even trump has a silver lining
This time last month there was a huge push for "buy Canadian" that disappeared as soon as Trump announced a month delay in implementing tariffs. Hopefully that happens again.
Also hope we cancel the "fentanyl czar" and whatever other stupidity we committed to last month.
Also hope we cancel the "fentanyl czar" and whatever other stupidity we committed to last month.
The Trump Factor 
I did say he's on the left on progressive issues, just that it hasn't amounted to much in practice. Do you have any examples of how he's leftist otherwise? Anything economic, in particular?
Of course, compared to current US politics, everything is crazily left-wing; but that has no meaning outside the US.
On the economy he has shifted slightly more centric recently but this is the PM who removed income sprinkling, and who hates the middle class.
I have no doubt the money behind Trump will eventually ramp up rhetoric about annexing Canada. People can say its joking or playing with markets but its right out of the Russian playbook, and all those oligarchs see is our Northern passage, oil, rare minerals and fresh water. Normalizing it. Trillions in worth protected by something as silly as 'allies'. I'm just wondering at what point there is actual resistance to Trump in his administration. When he's telling generals to start planning for it? I have no doubt that would leak immediately. What then? Will US Generals decline? Will American soldiers be ok with forcibly taking over a friendly, non-threatening, white nation? Will Trump have to ramp up rhetoric for a year about how Canada is somehow screwing Americans (he sort of is doing it with the BS claims about fentanyl coming from us even though its less than 0.1% and talking about the trade deficit even though they have 10x our population so its sort of obvious) just so there isn't a revolt from his own population?
What do we do if it plays out that way? Most of the population of Canada is right by the border. Most major cities are within a few hours of US borders. I have a 5 and 3 year old, what do I do? How aggressive would an attack be? Before anyone thinks its far fetched, Trudeau this morning said it makes no sense to have a Tariff/Trade War unless you want to cripple economies so they can try to annex us.
Not the types of thoughts I thought I'd have before November 2024.
What do we do if it plays out that way? Most of the population of Canada is right by the border. Most major cities are within a few hours of US borders. I have a 5 and 3 year old, what do I do? How aggressive would an attack be? Before anyone thinks its far fetched, Trudeau this morning said it makes no sense to have a Tariff/Trade War unless you want to cripple economies so they can try to annex us.
Not the types of thoughts I thought I'd have before November 2024.
What's income sprinkling? And how does Trudeau hate the middle class? It's all he ever talks about. It's the lower classes he doesn't care for.
He did propose a capital gains tax btw, that would be a leftist economic measure he took. (Well, and then deferred and now it won't happen; but anyway.)
Words and actions not the same on the middle class. Income sprinkling was mostly doctors using their corporation to split income among immediate family members the last day of the year, as if they were employees, then being taxed on a lower amount of personal income (then the next day, families would give the money right back)
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/com...udes-larger-tax-burden-middle-class-canadians
Another thing Trudeau has repeated is you can’t have a plan for the economy without having a plan for the environment, a matter which Trudeau is certainly left on (maybe more so than any other country)
Since most migrants fall into the lower class upon arrival, I’d say he has an affinity for that group given how easy he made it for people to come to Canada (which he has now rolled back only to save his own skin).
There are many other examples of him being more leftist when it comes to the economy, but to his credit, he is one of the best fighters when it comes to politics anywhere in the world, and is very very well spoken. I just had a peak at the change in odds for the next Canadian election, and I’m sure trudeaus strength has a lot to do with the fact that conservatives look a lot less likely to achieve a majority
Trudeau has literally nothing to do with the bump in support for Libs. In fact he was the main reason they were 27 points off the Conservatives. Support for Libs only started to pick up in the polls because Trudeau resigned, and trump announced tariffs.
If ever there was a time for a government of national unity, including all parties pulling together (for once), this is it.
His last two national addresses have coincided with decreased odds of a conservative majority the following day
Any specific data you can share that shows that? Thanks. I wouldn’t have thought polling would work like that.
According to IPSOS (https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/liberals-take-lead-first-time-since-2021) the LPC were polling at 20% the day before JT resigned (6th Jan). They’re now at 39%.
It is true that Trudeau’s approval rating has increased a bit since his resignation (from 22% to 32%) but he’s still deeply unpopular and so that seems like an unlikely explanation for the turnaround in LPC fortunes.
I thought the most favorable polling was when people were asked to assume Carney is the next Liberal leader. If that's not included in @WPMUFC's graphs above, then even a Conservative win might be in doubt now.
Anyway, we discussed the factors leading to their decline above. For example: https://www.redcafe.net/threads/canadian-politics.450677/post-32967554.
I’m using bookmakers for the numbers, politics are usually quite a good way to make some $. Admittedly, they may not paint a realistic picture, but yesterday the liberals were +200 and now +175
Yeah, that's the capital gains thing that I mentioned. I was kinda happy since they finally did something on the economy - but I think they underestimated how many groups (like doctors) would be affected that they hadn't meant to target. And so this was delayed, shelved, and now won't actually be implemented. So much for that, then.
Yeah, that's right, he's been relatively strong on the environment. It's funny that's a leftist issue and connected to the economy now: there is nothing capitalist or socialist about caring for the environment, and climate change will hurt everyone equally. And actually, the first prominent politician in Canada to care about these subjects was probably Mulroney, the conservative PM from the 80s/90s. But anyway.
That's a kinda strange. First, this income thing applies to refugees but much less to other immigrant groups. (Overall, there was only a CA$3000 difference in 2022 between the median wages of new immigrants and Canadians overall.) Second, all sides in Canada agree that significant immigration is necessary to compensate for the effect of population again. And third, the rollback is due to housing concerns. Either way, huge immigration isn't so much seen as a leftist hobby, but rather that the Liberals overshot it (through incompetence, if you will).
Also, so you're claiming that he's leftist on the economy because he's making the below-median income group grow? That's... not an argument I've heard before.
'Many other examples'? Let's have some. Well, specifically: let's have some that show that Trudeau is 'waayyyyyy' left. Cause that's not how he's seen over here - certainly not economically. (Regardless of conservative discourse that now calls anything that isn't them Marxist.)
The line about 'Trudeau's strength' helping the Liberals in the polls is actually very funny, but @Abusian already addressed how he'd rather been an absolute millstone for them for probably close to a year now.
There is absolutely no way America invades Canada, come on now.
Are you Canadian or just moved there?
The income sprinkling change came into effect in 2018. I remember at the time basically every doctor in Canada united against it, telling Morneau that it was awful, so your comment about them not realizing it would affect doctors isn’t accurate, they just didn’t care.
You seem like a lovely person from some posts I’ve read, but there is a common theme where you refuse to admit when you’re wrong. You Initially led with Trudeau loving the middle class, but when presented with some facts that show it not to be the case, you tried to cover it up saying they underestimated how many groups would be affected… and basically the middle class suffered the most after that Morneau bill came into effect. There are seriously far too many examples of Trudeau making economic decisions that would be considered leftist for me to list, so I will leave the discussion by saying that my intended comment of him being wayyyy too far left was more on the “wokism” side of things, rather than economical/financial et al.