Canadian Politics

This is definitely the Trump effect. As a Canadian I was never enthused with JT and felt he should have been replaced by the Liberals much sooner.

Poilievre and the PC only have themselves to blame, for flirting with going lockstep in line with the craziness down South. They should have stuck with a more typical Canafian conservative choice. Poilievre took ages to denounce what was going on, and it rightfully hurt him.

Never seen a turnaround this fast in our politics. The Liberals were done a few months ago.

They were done to historical levels done
 
It's quite funny (and perhaps interesting) to see Carney taking all these steps that are entirely at odds with the economic philosophy he's spent his life espousing.
Carney is a pragmatist, not an ideologue. In politics, as in life, we have to play the cards we’re dealt, right? Whomever wins this election, Canada’s agenda will be set by the goings on in the crack house down south.
 
https://338canada.com/federal.htm now has the Liberals a good bit ahead, and various Conservatives have started criticizing Poilievre's campaign for being out of touch with current issues. (They say his style looks too much like Trump and his messages are still partly addressed to Trudeau-specific issues that don't matter with Carney.) And Friday morning Carney had a call with Trump that appeared to go very well and might strengthen his profile as the guy Canada needs right now.

What a turnaround! I know there's a full month to go still, with lots of changes and surprises - and Carney is likely to make some costly mistakes in the French-language debate. But it's anyway remarkable to see how the political landscape has been turned basically upside down in just a few months, with Trudeau's departure and Trump's madness.
 
https://338canada.com/federal.htm now has the Liberals a good bit ahead, and various Conservatives have started criticizing Poilievre's campaign for being out of touch with current issues. (They say his style looks too much like Trump and his messages are still partly addressed to Trudeau-specific issues that don't matter with Carney.) And Friday morning Carney had a call with Trump that appeared to go very well and might strengthen his profile as the guy Canada needs right now.

What a turnaround! I know there's a full month to go still, with lots of changes and surprises - and Carney is likely to make some costly mistakes in the French-language debate. But it's anyway remarkable to see how the political landscape has been turned basically upside down in just a few months, with Trudeau's departure and Trump's madness.
In their article about the flailing Conservative campaign today, the Globe quotes the LPC as having a 15 point lead in Ontario, which has just elected a conservative in a landslide. That’s a stunning stat.

As you say, Carney came out of the call yesterday well, looking very Prime Ministerial. That’ll be reflected in the polling by early next week, you’d think. And there’s also a whisper that Doug Ford will give Carney another boost before election day. Ford emphatically not a PP fan by all accounts.

Really not looking good for PP at this point. He must wonder what the hell happened. A twenty point lead to a five point deficit in 47 days!
 
They may aswell call the election now. Gonna be very ironic Canadians voting for the guy trump favours
 
In their article about the flailing Conservative campaign today, the Globe quotes the LPC as having a 15 point lead in Ontario, which has just elected a conservative in a landslide. That’s a stunning stat.
Ford's a funny guy. He came in as quite the populist and he still largely presents himself that way. And of course, he's done lots of conservative stuff, including proven dumb things like going to rip up bike paths to make way for car lanes. But despite all that, he's really a small c conservative, and I don't think he has much love for people like Poilievre, Smith, or Moe. He got on very well with Freeland apparently and even seemed to have warmed to Trudeau, and Carney also seems like a good personal fit for him.

I have trouble making all of the above make logical sense, but I think it's all true anyway, and for that reason, I'm not too surprised that urban and suburban Ontario would vote for both Ford and Carney. (Rural southern Ontario is staunchly conservative anyway.)
 
So why are Canadians falling for it and about to vote for carney?
I agree that Trump has expressed a preference for Carney. He's usually not too subtle, so like you, I don't think that's 4D chess. But Carney was already shooting up in the polls before Trump said anything, and there are also a lot of other aspects to factor in here. So 'falling for it' seems a bit too simplistic.
 
I agree that Trump has expressed a preference for Carney. He's usually not too subtle, so like you, I don't think that's 4D chess. But Carney was already shooting up in the polls before Trump said anything, and there are also a lot of other aspects to factor in here. So 'falling for it' seems a bit too simplistic.

I think trump was being genuine. In a lot of ways, carney is just like trump in that he knows how to play the system, Carney is just A LOT smarter. It must be intimidating for someone who’s been bankrupt multiple times to deal with a guy who can actually fix an economy.
 
That’s not what other posters have alluded to at al

okay sure, I'll tell you what I think

Trump has scored a gigantic own goal in his foreign policy with canada and cleary pushed the electorate in a direction which doesn't suit his agenda

in typical trump fasion, rather than admit this calamitous error and show accountability for this generational shit-show in geopolitics, he's pretending he wanted this all along, when it defies logic
 
okay sure, I'll tell you what I think

Trump has scored a gigantic own goal in his foreign policy with canada and cleary pushed the electorate in a direction which doesn't suit his agenda

in typical trump fasion, rather than admit this calamitous error and show accountability for this generational shit-show in geopolitics, he's pretending he wanted this all along, when it defies logic
I dunno, but I think for Trump there's also a large personal component. He didn't get along with Trudeau or Freeland, but I can imagine he sees Carney as a guy he can have a real talk with (kinda like @FriedClams said). Same for Ford for that matter. I'd see it less with Poilievre on the personal level, even if they'd align better ideologically.
 
I dunno, but I think for Trump there's also a large personal component. He didn't get along with Trudeau or Freeland, but I can imagine he sees Carney as a guy he can have a real talk with (kinda like @FriedClams said). Same for Ford for that matter. I'd see it less with Poilievre on the personal level, even if they'd align better ideologically.

sure but having a real talk with someone is quite evidently not important to trump in the grand scheme of things

and next to his ego and the threat looking like a loser, it's basically nothing
 
Looks like the Conservatives are going into a bit of a tailspin right now: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservatives-campaign-civil-war-party-1.7497029. Again, still a while to go, but the arrogance that's being reported makes it sound like the required shift is unlikely to happen. I guess this is where Poilievre's insistence that everything goes through him and that he decides it all with a small inner circle works against him.

(The latter is well-known. Example: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-iron-fist-caucus-discipline-1.7387552.)
 
Looks like the Conservatives are going into a bit of a tailspin right now: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservatives-campaign-civil-war-party-1.7497029. Again, still a while to go, but the arrogance that's being reported makes it sound like the required shift is unlikely to happen. I guess this is where Poilievre's insistence that everything goes through him and that he decides it all with a small inner circle works against him.

(The latter is well-known. Example: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/poilievre-iron-fist-caucus-discipline-1.7387552.)

They should honestly just call the election now. Carney has clearly had some dodgy dealings but he just seems smarter than most of the politicians you see, probably because he’s not a politician. If you get the right people around you, I’ve always maintained that a successful financier is a great selection for running a country.
 
Says who? You?
Yes, clearly. This is also an opinion/interpretation shared by many others. It is also possible or likely that he didn't write that "truth", stylistically it is different and he doesn't typically sign off like that.
 
Yes, clearly. This is also an opinion/interpretation shared by many others. It is also possible or likely that he didn't write that "truth", stylistically it is different and he doesn't typically sign off like that.

He signs off with “thank you for your attention to this matter” all the time.

I think he was just being honest, he’d prefer a liberal government.
 



It seems a lot of Canadian politicians are coming out against Trump. It's a bold strategy Cotton, ket's see if it pays off for em.
 
When he said that he could kill someone in 5th ave at daybroad light and nothing will happen to him and people would still vote for him

I'm going to split hairs and say yes, he was correct, but I'd bet at the time he thought he was lying.
 
Did anyone watch the debates this week? I didn't, but based on the reports I've read, they likely didn't move the needle much: it seems like Carney took some damage, but not enough for anyone to make a significant difference for any party. What did it feel like for those watching?
 
Did anyone watch the debates this week? I didn't, but based on the reports I've read, they likely didn't move the needle much: it seems like Carney took some damage, but not enough for anyone to make a significant difference for any party. What did it feel like for those watching?

Nah, I watched like 5-10 minutes. These are such useless events for soundbites. Long gone are the days are a proper policy debate.

I think the only change is Pierre is trying to be 'nice' and it's the most force awkward thing I've ever seen.
 
Shouldn't there be some sort of bump here? Are the libs going to win as predicted?
 
Shouldn't there be some sort of bump here? Are the libs going to win as predicted?
Looks like it currently. This is today's polling:

Screenshot-20250428-114350.png

Looks like the question is mostly whether the Liberals will win a majority of not. We'll find out tonight! (Or possibly only tomorrow morning, depending on how tight things are.)