I'm very optimistic we will get him. He is leaving Madrid - that's almost certain. There are just a handful clubs that he would move to, in no particular order:
Bayern - don't need him, they have equally good players in the same positions
Man City - FFP, plus don't need him
Chelsea - FFP, plus don't need him
Liverpool - possible, but can't see them paying more than us
Arsenal - very unlikely, they just signed Sanchez
PSG - FFP
Monaco - looks like things are going downhill there
Juventus - never going to pay that much for a player
As it stands I think Liverpool are our only rival for his signature, that concerns me - it would make a lot of sense for them to sign him to replace Suarez, plus they offer CL. However I think we are generally the more attractive destination, so it will come to who offers more money. We should be able to easily outbid Liverpool, plus their wage structure is nowhere near ours.
There are some signs that make me think we have reached an agreement with ADM a while ago: Woody's "watch this space" bravado, LVG quote regarding Ronaldo and Di Maria (usually people say Ronaldo and Messi), the fact that ADM is asking Madrid to leave... It's reading between the lines, but if I was a betting man I would say we have about 60-70% chance to get him.