Tough for Biden to overcome sentiment like this. 'A' pollster...
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
It's being politically myopic.
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Think the logic is that they don’t expect trump or the republicans to ever change. By ‘punishing’ Biden, they peg their hopes that the next time democrats choose a candidate, their votes don’t get taken for granted
Like a ‘I don’t want the least bad of two bad options - give me a good option, and if it means 4 years of suffering so be it’
The point is, if you withhold your vote now, 1 of 3 things happen:
1. The Democrats get spooked into changing their stance
2. The Democrats don't change their stance. Trump wins. In 4 years, they will change their stance to bring you back into the fold
3. The Democrats win anyways. No foul
It's a terrible choice, but I can't blame them. They are seeing the ruling party condone Israel's behavior in Gaza and the West Bank. Everyone has a red line. And it's kind of condescending to such people to equivocate about how Trump will be worse when the present option is hell. So vote for hell because the alternative is worse? Yeah I'd sit it out too.
Keep in mind I live in a solid blue state so my vote literally doesn't matter at the federal level, so take my post with a grain of salt
I absolutely agree with everything you said, however the only way I can comprehend it is it's like voting for someone who killed your wife and someone who killed your children. It's like a no win situation no matter what they do. The disgust, distrust and hatred of both candidates runs so deep they just don't want anything to do with either of them. It will grip them and make them feel dirty no matter who they put an X next to on the ballot box so it's just easier to not bother at all.
As I said, hopefully time will help here, but it's a fecking sad state of affairs that we are still saying this in 2023 and there are still only two parties to vote for and also these two are still the frontrunners for the most powerful position in global politics. The responsibility is immense and no matter how much many say otherwise, recent events have clearly shown that it does effect the rest of the world massively.
I fully agree Trump would definitely be worse but on the heat of the moment, right now, especially for those who are connected by race or religion, they just can't see much difference, if any at all. And if they do, it's so minimal, they just don't care.
It's fecking mind boggling that after three elections these two are still the only two in contention. That's even more bizarre given their age and failings. I even saw someone saying if Joe does step down or can't continue then Hillary is the best replacement. Hillary - Harris 2024 was the slogan. I mean what the actual feck?
We truly are fecked.
cygnal is an explicitly republican firm that produced a poll in mid-october, saying 60% of gen z support hamas (specifically, not palestine). also produced ceasefire numbers way out of line with reuters. wouldn't trust them at all.
‘A’ in 538 pollster ratings. Those ratings tend to be pretty accurate. This is the first time I’ve ever heard of them, will keep what you are saying in mind going forward.
If Biden loses, these folks will no doubt claim its because he lost the Arab-American vote (which even if such a thing existed, would be minuscule since they don't vote as a block).
I'm not sure I'd trust 538 anymore. Nate Silver is a bit of a twat with some dumb Twitter opinions, but he made that site what it was as far as polling and statistical analysis goes - and he's no longer there. A lot of people are no longer there, actually. When he left he took the model with him, incidentally.
1. Those ratings are based on predicting election results, not on specific crosstabs or issues.
2. Those ratings give massive weight to the last result.
3. Multiple A rated pollsters predicted a massive red wave in 2022, because they were open partisan firms.
A good example is Trafalgar, led by an election denier, which released partial/no methodology and crosstabs, and whose manipulation was exposed in 2022. They got close to the result in 2020, got an A rating, did not even get a partisan logo, and were included with a correspondingly high weight in 538 averages for the 2022 midterms. For the senate, they predicted a 5 point loss in Nevada (1 point win), a 2 point loss in Arizona (5 point win), a 3 point loss in Georgia (1 point win), and a 2 point loss in Pennsylvania (5 point win). They did predict the GOP wins in NC and WI, but with larger-than-reality margins. On average, over 6 races, they overestimated Republicans by 5 points in each. In no single race did they underestimate Republicans. A-rated in 538.
e - in August, Cygnal, who you quoted, released a GOP primary poll with Trump 24, Vivek 11, RDS 10. The average at that time was Trump 55.
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538 is so 2012.
Nate Silver got his fame from the 2022 election, but hasn’t been good since. I stopped following him a long time ago.
Nate Silver got his fame from the 2022 election, but hasn’t been good since. I stopped following him a long time ago.
I don't think anyone thinks it's that simple. But the stance on Israel could be a contributing factor if Biden loses because it adds a different subset of Dem voters to the ones already shaky because of the perception of his age/mental acuity and the perception of the economy. If Biden loses, like Hilary it will be because of multiple factors none of which are sufficient on their own but can combine just enough in key swing states.
Four years of suffering (not just Muslims) would be the best outcome if Trump is reelected but I think most people know it would be more than that. His first term impact is still felt now and will be for a long time, for instance, the Supreme Court.
It is grim. Logically.
If he loses it will be because of voter anxiety about his age. He may not be able to draw sufficient adequate enthusiasm next year to sufficient Dem turnout to win. This is why the likes of Axelrod and David Ignatius have called on him to not run.
I don't think you can reduce it to just his age if he ends up losing. Different voters are going to come to different judgements weighing multiple factors. For some, it might be the perception of the economy and for others, it might be the stance on Israel as some of the comments and posts highlight above. Like with Hilary, there wasn't just one reason she lost, there were several reasons that combined to a loss.
It will be a big part of it as people aren't going to turn out if they aren't motivated to. His age in the most recent poll is an ominous harbinger for the Dems.
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bi...potential-2024-rematch-with-trump-2023-09-15/
The Israel issue is going to hurt a lot in Michigan. Biden won there by about 150k votes, the Muslim population is about 240k, let’s say 75% of them are eligible to vote, with a 60% participation rate, that’s about 110k people voting, depending on which exit poll you believe for 2020, if 57% who voted for Biden are not going to vote for him again, that’s 30-60k gone from the previous tally, not to mention erosion elsewhere from other ethnic/religious groups who share the same sentiment.
It’s all well and good saying he must support Israel because that’s the official line, but the electoral reality can be really ugly for. D candidate in that environment.
It’s all well and good saying he must support Israel because that’s the official line, but the electoral reality can be really ugly for. D candidate in that environment.
This tactic of trying to win elections by pointing to the other side and saying "but they're much worse" to guilt trip (a certain demographic of) voters has diminishing returns. As shown in 2016.
Doesn't make my statement any less true.
It's true and also pointless.
Over 30% of eligible voters don't vote. Maybe give them a reason to vote for you other than fear mongering?
Make it compulsory is the answer. No need to reward laziness.
It works well here.
And what fear mongering?
Ultimately, the US is a “winner take all” two party system, so it’s completely fine if one of the two parties points out the consequences of voting for the other side. If people don’t vote then they have little recourse to complain about which policies one of the two parties has implemented.
Yep. There is quite literally no worse option than a Trump return. How can't people see that? How more than a few mentally ill loons can't see that amazes me.
Like, sanction/fine/imprison people for not voting?
Fear mongering as in, "you have to vote for Biden because Trump is worse". Trump is worse yes. If Biden isn't doing shit for me then that's not a great selling point for standing in line for hours to vote. Again, this didn't work in 2016
If it doesn't work, then it's not fine. This remains to be seen, but if polls say you're vulnerable, and certain demographics are saying they're sitting out, telling them "the other guy is worse" isn't moving the needle. It literally offers no value.
I know it's a winner takes all system (that's why my federal vote is useless). You'd think the Democrats would try and tweak their messaging to bring in more discontented voters in swing states instead of going to the Hillary playbook.
All citizens have recourse to complain about their government whether they voted or not
The Dems are already too broad in their appeal at the moment, which is actually counterproductive to them since they have to make drug deals with the likes of Jim Clyburn in exchange for AA support. The Republicans, although in turmoil, actually benefit from their homogeneous power structure which makes it easier to sell to their voters.
Those not interested in either party should form their own party and see how well they fare.
Yeah why can't Biden see this??
Why can't he address concerns about his age by stepping down and opening the field to younger candidates like Newsom and Whitaker? Why can't he alleviate concerns about inflated prices and rent? Why can't he take a more moderate position on Israel and Palestine to bring back discontented Arab Americans? Why is he only leaning on "Trump is going to be much worse"?
I wouldn't call him a mentally ill loon (that's ageist).
They get told that a vote on a third party is a waste!
You've said that on here numerous times
They get told that a vote on a third party is a waste!
You've said that on here numerous times
Yes but people love to moan about politics on forums and social media instead of doing something about it. So if they’re genuinely upset, they always have the option of going third party.
Third parties would be best served trying to build up at state and local level, where there is much less at stake, and also easier to win.
Why they spend so much time on presidential races is beyond me.
Why they spend so much time on presidential races is beyond me.
Yes. I can't believe so few countries do this.
In fact you are fined for not turning up rather than not voting. You can spoil you ballot paper or tick nothing once you have been ticked off as attending.
When it is a choice between anyone (or indeed anything, e g. a cat), and the pure evil that is Trump, then it is a great point.
Oh wow.
Do most people vote for one of the options or just vote nothing?
The reason why that wouldn't work is because we make it hard for a lot of people to vote. If you have to stand in line for 8 hours (skipping work, finding day care options)not vote.. then you should have the right to say "feck it I'm not going to vote"
When you say we, who do you mean?
We as in America in general make it hard for people to vote.
Varies by state but we have a long history of erecting bullshit barriers aimed at making it harder for people to vote. Eliminating mail in ballots, early voting. Minimizing the number of voting locations in certain areas. Disenfranchising felons and non residents. And so on
If the goal is to stop right wing politics then the Australia voting system isn’t a good a example to use.
Right-wing politics are more or less accepted by both parties. Trump does not even believe in those himself. He is just there to create chaos, basically.
That's not correct, one party tries to do that and that's because they need a low turnout to succeed, the other party tries to make it easier
If you are not an American Muslim or Palestinian, then you are strongly implying that you can 'objectively weight' what benefits a community in a way the community itself cannot. You're probably wrong about this.
Biden is a pro-Israel politician. When you are pro something, you court the votes of people who are pro that same thing. Biden should be counting on the votes of pro-Israel people, at the expense of the votes of pro-Palestinian people. That's just how it works.
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Moderates are going republican as the progressive wing alienates more people and the centre gets pulled into stupid positions to mollify left militancy.
In the past and especially in 2020 moderates went republican as the republicans went further right.
Trump could actually win now and it would be 100% the democrats fault for making themselves unelectable.
In the past and especially in 2020 moderates went republican as the republicans went further right.
Trump could actually win now and it would be 100% the democrats fault for making themselves unelectable.