Trouble for Biden is that about half of those who favor him over Trump also think he’s too old, which is a harbinger of low Election Day turnout imo. That could of course be mitigated by Trump’s presence in the race, but all things said, Biden should not hang his hat on the idea that he will win just because he’s running against a deeply flawed opponent.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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Trouble for Biden is that about half of those who favor him over Trump also think he’s too old, which is a harbinger of low Election Day turnout imo. That could of course be mitigated by Trump’s presence in the race, but all things said, Biden should not hang his hat on the idea that he will win just because he’s running against a deeply flawed opponent.
If Biden loses, it will be because of his age (which is born out in polling asking voters which of his attributes they are most troubled by). This handling of the Israel-Palestine situation has been received very favorably by the political class (including by some Republicans).
Pretty much. Sending the aircraft carriers was a forceful decision. So far it has worked.
This conflict won’t lose him the election, unless he loses a significant number of votes of Gen Z and Muslim votes in places like Michigan. However, we’re a year away of the election, and his main adversary is his age. This guy is constantly underestimated, and does well.
Yeah, maybe. Although hasn't he also lost a ton of support in Muslim communities, which are actually fairly important in certain swing states? If I remember right, they were not an insignificant factor in him winning the 2020 election.
Losing some Muslim votes wouldn’t hurt him as much as losing pro-Israel votes (which will include independents). At the end of the day , Biden wont depart from the holy grail of American politics of being pro-Israel, as that is one of the few remaining things Democrats, Independents, and Republicans largely still agree on.
Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents do not have an overall favorable view of Israel (44% positive 53% negative) and they have a very unfavorable view of Benjamin Netanyahu (17% positive 56% negative). (Pew Research Center)
Biden needed to strike a delicate balance in the middle, to try and placate both camps in the Democratic Party.
He didn't do that. He blatantly sided with Israel, the low point being his public denial of high death tolls by claiming that "he had no confidence" in those numbers.
By siding with Israel, he's allowing Israeli management of this conflict to affect his image. That was a bad idea: Israel does not give a shit about Biden's image or standing because they want Donald Trump to win the election. Netanyahu is an open Republican partisan.
He sided with Israel over Hamas, which is what any pro-Israel politician in the US would’ve done. The only ones that are objecting to this are fringe extremists on the left and right, so all things said, Biden has made all the right moves politically. His age and domestic issues like inflation are his main problem. His Israel position will only help him, whereas Trump’s recent spat with Netanyahu likely won’t help him.
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Taken during the war during which alot of death and destruction was in the news. Once it abates it will return to business as usual, just as the gun issue does a few months after the last last shooting. At the end of the day, Biden and every other serious political candidate know they aren’t going anywhere politically if they are perceived as anti-Israel.
Predictably (and bizarrely) Trump suggested immediately after the 10-7 attacks that Bibi “let us down” when refused to participate in killing Suleymani.
This is not a convincing response at all.
Nor is your selectively fabricated hypothesis based on a cherry-picked poll.
Here's another one:
Before you use the argument that "it's only because it's on the news",
So the numbers have worsened from what was already an existing division.
You can make a reasonable argument about the salience of Israel/Palestine issues based on polls, past results, etc. and come to the conclusion that Biden is better off supporting Israel, that's fine.
What yo did is make a sweeping claim that it's a "fringe extremist position", which it isn't. That's just how you see it.
What yo did is make a sweeping claim that it's a "fringe extremist position", which it isn't. That's just how you see it.
As stated before, sentiment during a bombing campaign in 2023 won’t resonate at the polls a year later, just as the Afghanistan pull out has been largely forgotten by now. People in the US vote on domestic issues (generally related to economics and the cost of living). The only way Israel policy will hurt Biden next year is if he’s perceived as being anti-Israel, which would be interpreted domestically as being tacitly pro Hamas.
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If the DNC is banking on fear of Trump wouldn't any generic D do the work? Trump only can win with vote suppression and Biden's old age perceptions seems to suppress a lot of the vote that he got in 2020 were trump was the most voted candidate ever bar the Biden what won that same year
Yes, January 6th happened but after 4 batshit crazy years of his presidency, he got more than 70 million votes
At least it’s a good thing there is a full year until the election, so Israel-Palestine hopefully won’t dominate the news cycle by then. Biden may have lost some voters forever, but there is a good chance that this won’t be a top election issue in November 2024.
The groups protesting are fringe and in many circumstances extremists. A rogues gallery of leftist college students, some Arab Americans (but certainly not all), and anti-Semite right wingers who follow the likes of Tucker Carlson and similar commentators. None of these could be vaguely construed as part of the Biden coalition, and as such, their views won’t matter in getting him re-elected. Like most issues, this issue will fade into the rear view mirror in American politics once the news cycle moves on.
Unless actual Democratic members of Congress consistently vote against Israel - this is irrelevant. Ultimately, policy comes from the White House and the party falls in line with Biden’s policy.
Lovely way to oversimplify the situation but the irony of it is that it actually holds truth in the US. I've also yet to see any US politician seriously eyeing for the presidency going against Israel.
Interesting choice of words but yeah, politically Biden handled the crisis very well from a US point of view. I worry about the state of his spine though. And the long-term consequences on the country.
Netanyahu is a goner and Trump knows it, that's why he went so hard on him. Easy points and it won't change anything. Israel knows that Trump truly means carte blanche to whatever the feck they want to do. Biden at least pays lip service and could even say no, if things go really, really bad in Gaza or the West Bank. Trump just won't care. I've never seen an easier choice to be made between Trump or Biden from an Israeli point of view.
Seeing both Republicans and Democrats relying on two candidates approaching their eighties, one of them having already been an absolute nightmare as a president and the other not even sure of completing his second mandate, is a sad state of affairs and something I truly worry about.
It doesn't mean anything.
Like @Raoul said, once the dust settles, it's business as usual. 15,000 dead and counting within seven weeks, 2/3 of them being women and children, the Gaza Strip flattened and a massive humanitarian crisis. All of it just enough to call for a 4 days cease-fire. Any other other country would've been sanctioned and eventually invaded and/or bombed. Just wait once the cease-fire is over, the best is yet to come.
The Palestinians (and Arabs/muslims in general) are so far down the pecking order that it would literally take a massive ethnic cleansing or a genocide to push the US politicians to maybe do something.
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I would have hoped that after the 2016 election of Donald Trump, people would learn to be more skeptical about political realities, the way things always are, things of that nature. The world changes first; "common sense" changes later.
And the alternative to Biden for Muslim voters is a guy called… well, Donald Trump. Not that attractive, to put it mildly.
That's what I thought too, but never underestimate human stupidity.
However, in my opinion, the American society is too divided, the election system in dire need of a reform and politics became entertainment and nothing else. More importantly, 6/1 did a fabulous job of making the orange fatass a martyr to the eyes of a notable part of the population. Having even bigger clowns as alternative doesn't help either.
That said, it doesn't mean that Trump's going to win it, but the fact that he's even in the race is truly something.
EDIT: I didn't want to derail the thread and genuinely thought I was replying on the Israel-Palestine one.
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There’s an option called not voting.
If minorities stay home and don’t vote, Ds are fecked, and a lot of them won’t be single issue abortion voter.
This misplaced confidence that people will have to vote for Biden just because the opponent is Trump is weird, when last time round it went down to razor thin margin in a few key states and Biden is much more vulnerable now, while Trump already got some of the misty eyed hindsight treatment most president get when out of office.
Haley looks like will sail into solid 2nd place when all is said and done in the primaries, she is a "normie" republican, so i would expect her to beat Biden without too much trouble.
Trump, as strong as he is in the polls right now, is still a hated figure, and will mobilize voters against him next year.
Not sure the pro's outweighs the cons though, Trump might have a higher chance of losing the general election, but 4 years of Haley is managable, especially if dems take the house back, 4 more years of Trump is not, for the US or the world.
It would be for the best if Trump got disqualified from running again, i think, but it doesn't look likely that this will happen.
Trump, as strong as he is in the polls right now, is still a hated figure, and will mobilize voters against him next year.
Not sure the pro's outweighs the cons though, Trump might have a higher chance of losing the general election, but 4 years of Haley is managable, especially if dems take the house back, 4 more years of Trump is not, for the US or the world.
It would be for the best if Trump got disqualified from running again, i think, but it doesn't look likely that this will happen.
Trump alone is not enough, but he’s a factor.
This election, like previous ones, can go either way. No doubt. But as long as Trump is on the other side, Democrats will vote. Is it going to be enough for Biden to win? We will see.
Michigan Senate candidate Hill Harper said he was offered $20 million to mount a primary challenge against Rep. Rashida Tlaib
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/22/politics/michigan-hill-harper-rashida-tlaib/index.html
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/11/22/politics/michigan-hill-harper-rashida-tlaib/index.html
Haley and DeSantis are basically just running in case Trump has to drop out for some reason. She might have an outside shot of being his VP as well, DeSantis not so much.
Yes.
Also, Haley can’t beat Biden. She lost her “brand” when she went with Trump. Before working for him, as a moderate democrat myself, I would’ve considered voting for her. But, she’s not an option for so many moderate democrats or independents who don’t like Trump. When I hear Haley, I hear Trump, and I know that I’m not the only one.
As for DeSantis, a year ago he was at the top of the world. He’s on the reserve list right now.
She's not batshit crazy emough to be his VP and I doubt she'd end her politcal career in accepting such an invite
Haley a woman and non white as R candidate? I don't see happening
From all I've learned of American politics, Raoul's posts are right on Isreal/Palestine. US voters don't care about foreign policy unless it's a scandal or US soldiers are being deployed. Of course polls that specifically ask questions - during 24/7 news cycle - will draw answers but no serious political analyst thinks it's even in the top 5 issues come November of next year.
I personally get a little annoyed at some of the posters' on here takes on what Biden could have done too. It's like some of you honestly believe that Biden threatening the c. 4bn of aid a year to Israel woudl stop THIS Israeli leader at THIS time. Netanyahu's literal future not behind bars is at stake, despite having Blinken over there basically from October 8th trying to smooth things out, despite Biden himself travelling over which is outrageously rare for a President and asking what the plan was, and despite literally every day calling for a change in Israeli policy people still attack Biden. There is no path for him to stop Netanyahu, outside of just upending US foreign policy entirely.
The election will come down to events closer to the time, and the economy. If Biden can convince voters his policies have mitigated inflation, kept record employment up and improved lives, he'll win. If Trump can convince those on the fence that things were utterly amazing before Covid and it was entirely down his business acumen, he'll win.
Roe will feature, turnout will be important but there's still a decent path for Biden. Wish someone else would challenge him (not that random guy from...erm, somewhere that has primaried him) but it seems less and less likely.
I personally get a little annoyed at some of the posters' on here takes on what Biden could have done too. It's like some of you honestly believe that Biden threatening the c. 4bn of aid a year to Israel woudl stop THIS Israeli leader at THIS time. Netanyahu's literal future not behind bars is at stake, despite having Blinken over there basically from October 8th trying to smooth things out, despite Biden himself travelling over which is outrageously rare for a President and asking what the plan was, and despite literally every day calling for a change in Israeli policy people still attack Biden. There is no path for him to stop Netanyahu, outside of just upending US foreign policy entirely.
The election will come down to events closer to the time, and the economy. If Biden can convince voters his policies have mitigated inflation, kept record employment up and improved lives, he'll win. If Trump can convince those on the fence that things were utterly amazing before Covid and it was entirely down his business acumen, he'll win.
Roe will feature, turnout will be important but there's still a decent path for Biden. Wish someone else would challenge him (not that random guy from...erm, somewhere that has primaried him) but it seems less and less likely.
Trump 2024 - I'll let Xi have Taiwan if he calls me your excellency.
Biden's pro-Israel position can only keep him neutral, it won't gain him any new voters. Right-wing Israelis/Jews in America aren't going to switch Trump support to Biden because of this; some believe Biden didn't come pro-Israel enough as it is. The question is whether Biden will lose the support of voters who are sympathetic to Palestinians. I think he will lose some support there, some Gen Z for one example might decide to not vote rather than vote for Biden. It's true that in a year, domestic issues will be more important but it's possible that Biden's stance on Israel will add more on top of other things, like his age and perception of the economy to help reach a critical mass in key swing states of voters staying home. It feels blindly optimistic to believe Biden's stance won't hurt him at all. I don't think Trump's comments will chance a single thing about right-wing Israeli/Jewish support for him because of how unpopular Netanyahu has become among all segments of Israel.
I don't get people like this. "Yes I accept person A is much worse than person B, but I'm miffed, so I won't vote". This isn't school council or a PTA meeting.
They feel their entire race and religious beliefs have been attacked. They feel let down and some (possibly many) feel persecuted by Biden and the way he has defended and supported Israel. Whatever, they certainly don't feel he has done enough or been strong enough vocally or politically.
In fairness to him, he's in a no win situation politically as the US has such strong ties to Israel. Morally however it's a different matter. He could easily have used his political power and voice to condemn Israel AND Hamas and stand up for the innocent people. But that's not how things work. It should be, but sadly it isn't. Most people struggle to hold two opposing opinions at the same time and many only vote for themselves no matter what. When it comes to voting I guess some are just so disenchanted by the whole thing they just want nothing to do with it.
I will add though, there's a long time left for people to change their minds and also quite often, what people say and do are often two completely different things. Emotions are high at the moment, in a year's time they could have cooled substantially, although they could easily have risen too. Another big factor is what Trump says in the coming months. If he goes all out balls deep on the anti Muslim agenda again, he could be so distateful and frightening he could swing voters away from him and some back to Biden again.
I completely understand this, and yet the person who their choice benefits is a man who is so prejudiced against their religion he banned them all from entering the US and moved the US embassy into Israel into Jerusalem, effectively recognizing it at the Jewish capital. If Trump was in the whitehouse the support for Israel would have been even more veciforous, not less.
I understand you can object to people's actions, but I think voting for president is such a huge thing you simply have to be able to tak a step back and weigh things objectively. I get some people can't/won't do this, and that's the behaviour I don't understand.