I don't - start from the beginning.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
I don't - start from the beginning.
You're wasting your time.
I would argue that if the Yougov and Gallup polls are going in the same direction as the more detailed Democracy Fund study then they must be a little meaningful.
But anyway, I think we are in broad agreement: the situation has changed, and so have people's attitudes and opinions. IMO that is an unfortunate but unavoidable consequence of doing politics. The idea that it can be avoided because it's the fault of "fringe" people (who implicitly have no electoral value) strikes me as a "free lunch" and there's been too many of those in the last decade.
It still doesn't mean anything because dividing between illegal and legal immigration is vital to actually understanding how people think.
Illegal immigration is an out of sight, out of mind type of issue. In 2012-2019 with the economy growing, its easy to answer some random pollster that sure illegal immigrants "make a contribution". But with the tail end of Biden admin when many people are seeing the effects of illegal immigrant in their neighborhood and they aren't positive, its no longer out of sight, out of mind. I can see why you might think that single poll represents some stark change but from talking to actual people over decades, I don't think there has been any shift in people's general views at all (legal immigration is positive, illegal immigration needs to be controlled), its just the way their current experience prime a specific question when asked, not a change to their core beliefs on immigration. I've asked , over the years in multiple places, including here, if anyone actually supported open borders and no one ever came out in support or defending open borders policy.
Election polls sample from the population with some assumptions, about who will vote, and what the population itself is. This can be based on the demographics of the population, who voted last time and for which candidate, and their self-reported enthusiasm about voting. All these things are assumptions and generate some errors. And, in the end, using 1000 people to understand 10 million people is fraught with unavoidable potential error too.
The idea is that you can take all these different polls with different errors, and use an average. In our reality, the average of the polls was systematically biased agaisnt Trump in swing states and nationally. This shows that the polls likely had biased samples or assumptions.
But, the systematic bias was only 2-3 points. For the simplest case, the popular vote, the average predicted a 1 point Kamala win instead of a 1.5 point defeat. They were 2.5% off.
But the thing I'm showing - about social media use for voters - shows that about 50% use facebook, and 10-20% use twitter. So, my point is that Musk buying X and his influence on the algorithm and what gets promoted etc is quite limited compared to facebook's.
And, even if the polls are biased, it's not going to be by 30-40 points!
Democracy is great.
hmm
Time to draw a line at the 50% and divide the country back into confederacy and union. I wonder which dot is Mass btw.
hmm
You're missing the point spectacularly. First off, plenty of people don’t use Twitter but still see its content—Tweets are embedded everywhere: Facebook, Gram, Reddit, even the Transfer Forum. You don’t need an account to be influenced, so there’s that. Secondly, the Data for Progress poll you’re citing is probably riddled with the same biases and skewed assumptions that plague most left-leaning polls. Nice try, though.
But let’s get serious—elections are often decided by razor-thin margins, especially in swing states. Small shifts in voter support, fueled by Elon’s platforms and broader influence, can absolutely tip the balance
- X drives political discourse and amplifies key messages, influencing not just users but also broader media narratives ( crude example: Elon will tweet something and Wapo/NYT/ABC will write an article about it)
- Younger voters and swing-state demographics—both crucial for Trump—are disproportionately affected by social media dynamics directly and indirectly
- Elon’s critiques and algorithmic changes undermined trust in traditional outlets, directly benefiting Trump
By "Biden" I mean "the Biden administration". Perhaps it's unfair to include the Fed, since, as I understand it, the President doesn't have as much power to impact their actions as other government institutions.
But we both know the voters weren't thinking about what a great job the Fed did, but rather how their purchasing power has been anhilated in the last 4 years (while forgetting it's really 5 years and much of the inflation happened under Trump).
Many of these people consume an all day diet of hate talk radio and right-wing TV segments. Give it a listen for a day and you'll get insight to how their minds are morphed, and for some their biases are confirmed.
Truly mind-boggling—did she burn through a billion dollars and still need to raise more money?
Setting Trump aside, I'm glad she's not running the country—a complete dope.
The DNC are pathetic. They've royally messed up and been huge Trump enablers.
In 2016, they wanted it to be a coronation for Hillary, and were deluded into thinking that she was unbeatable. Biden should have stood for the presidency then, and was more popular than Hillary in the rust belt states, but was begged not to by the DNC and Obama as it was 'Hillary's turn'. Hillary clearly failed some terrible misogyny at the time, while simultanesouly also running a pathetic campaign and arrogantly assumed that she'd wipe the floor with Trump (she was giving very smug interviews when Trump was storming to victory in the Republican primaries).
And this time, clearly Biden should have never intended to stand for re-election in the first place. then there would have been time for a proper Democratic primary process. It was obvious during his 2020 campaign that he could only serve one term, but his narcissism and delusions got the better of him, and the pure farce of him standing for re-election was allowed to go on for far too long. When he finally faced reality and stood down, it was too late. Clearly the DNC, as well as Biden, deserve a lot of blame there.
In 2016, they wanted it to be a coronation for Hillary, and were deluded into thinking that she was unbeatable. Biden should have stood for the presidency then, and was more popular than Hillary in the rust belt states, but was begged not to by the DNC and Obama as it was 'Hillary's turn'. Hillary clearly failed some terrible misogyny at the time, while simultanesouly also running a pathetic campaign and arrogantly assumed that she'd wipe the floor with Trump (she was giving very smug interviews when Trump was storming to victory in the Republican primaries).
And this time, clearly Biden should have never intended to stand for re-election in the first place. then there would have been time for a proper Democratic primary process. It was obvious during his 2020 campaign that he could only serve one term, but his narcissism and delusions got the better of him, and the pure farce of him standing for re-election was allowed to go on for far too long. When he finally faced reality and stood down, it was too late. Clearly the DNC, as well as Biden, deserve a lot of blame there.
The Fed is independent, and not at all part of the administration. Biden deserves as much credit for fixing inflation as he does for causing it, meaning close to nothing. However, that's not how people work. His supporters will unfairly give him credit, right wingers will unfairly blame him, and on average a weak economy will hurt him just like a strong economy would have benefitted him, even though presidents have little impact on the general economy.
That's true for any president, any political party, any time period. It's not because of Fox News.
Biden deserves a fair share, although there have been rumors that his wife was behind convincing him to run again. The identitarian DNC are archaic though and should be replaced by new blood. Fortunately Harrison isn’t running again.
The next governor
Donald Trump’s Other Big Victory
He didn’t just win the election. He’s also become fully normalized in American culture.
https://newrepublic.com/article/188737/donald-trump-dance-normalization-culture-victory
America’s economy IS strong, it’s just not invulnerable to a worldwide plague. But the public were told the economy was a disaster led by Biden. That wasn’t true. Thus Fox News’s disinformation here played a big part, just like every other right wrong propaganda outlet.
The majority of the country does not consider the economy was bad because of propaganda.
Will we get a countdown for the last 10? You know 8 out of ten cats like it.
We don't have fox in portugal and all data and politicians seem to tell us the economy is doing fine, just a little temporary inflation, no biggie, employment is high, companies have record profits, etc.
But go and ask any random person on the street how the economy is doing.
People can fall for a lot of propaganda when it comes to foreign policy, immigration, stuff that's hard to quantify. But when it comes to economy they experience it everyday, they know when they're doing ok and they're not.
The Democrats are fecking cowards.
I doubt anything interesting will come out of this
I doubt anything interesting will come out of this
It's hard to disagree with him on some of these points but given the relatively limited time Bernie may have left as an active politician - is there anyone out there who would step up and pick up where he left of?
I don't agree though that just with the messaging he proposes it would be enough to convince a lot of the people he always appeals to. For a huge amount of them this is a culture war on top of an economic one and the economic one is more driven by personal interest than to the benefit of us all. In other words, IMHO in 2/3 categories the Rs currently have the advantage there. It will take a lot more than just appealing to people's social thinking.
I doubt anything interesting will come out of this
The question is whether Sanders himself wrote that or one of his young interns
Why? It's pretty much exactly the same he's been saying in interviews since the election.
He’s been critical but not to that extent. This reads like it was almost lifted from MAGA propaganda.
I listened to a 30 min. interview he did with the NYT, and it was basically the same message I would say.
I was thinking the same.
Looks pretty accurate to me to be honest. No one wanted to be critical before the election, that level of support was never going to last long term.
I can see if he didn’t want to rock the boat before the election, but he wasn’t particularly critical in the media even before that. He’s been fairly anonymous since he bowed out in 2020. I can see how his frustrations may have bubbled over since the Dem party is indeed broken.
It's funny how now the Dem party is broken yet before the election many were saying the GOP would struggle to ever regain power due to the shifting demographics of voters and immigrants mainly allingjng with Dem policies.
The fact many share the family values and religious virtues peddled by the Republicans seems to have been completely overlooked.
He was getting some movement with Biden. The Harris campaign sidelined him and other left wing democrats. Which they played along with and supported as a lesser of two evils but if it didn't pay off they were always going to get the knives out. Which they absolutely 100% should.