2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Polls were dead wrong before the election, but somehow a week later they're reliable and informative. Yeah, sure I guess.
How did Kamala blow through a BILLION USD in three months? How do you even spend all that money? What a dope
Polls were within 2-5 points in every state and overall. Polling error substantially smaller than 2016 or 2020. You can add 5 points in your preferred ideological direction in this result, and it won't change the overall message: relevant propaganda that actually moves people can not come from a platform as small as X.
e - according to the graph at the top of the page, it's actually 2-3 points. so you can add 3 i guess.
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How come they always get it wrong and still don't adjust for this? And it is a billion dollar industry which is always wrong. Please don't say it is in the margin of error.
People lie when it comes to voting for Trump. In much greater numbers than seen previously. Pollsters can't adjust for it sufficiently. Most of these are also well within the margin of error of 3 points.
The margin of error is a random error centered around the population mean. This is a systematic failure, nothing to do with MoE.
The whole notion that "you've got to run a country like a business" is the dumbest thing in the world. Typical American brain rot.
Especially when you actually look at the specifics of how Trump ran his business
He bankrupted a fecking casino.Especially when you actually look at the specifics of how Trump ran his business
Why? Profits must excess expenditures in both cases.
That might have been the case in 2016, but not anymore. People who voted Trump tend to be proud to have done so. Even in blue liberal countries such as California.
Yeah it’s typical small business mindset
Trump as a terrible businessman who has scammed his way out of everything is sadly probably very relatable to these guys.
Imo one of the core appeals of Trump is he is a rich guy but with local car salesman cultural taste(Private jet but it serves McDonald’s fast food).
Exactly. We have the same in the UK and it’s maddening to see.
Turns out, Kierkegaard had them nailed down all along.
Someone, might’ve been you, had posted on here awhile back a video of a British man at a political town hall type thing prior to the recent UK elections dumbfounded to find out that he wasn’t working class. The article you posted above reminded me of that.
Because they can't factor in voter enthusiasm. You can ask someone who they plan on voting for, but you can't preemptively verify whether or not they actually wind up voting. Apparently this cycle, a lot of people broke in favor of Trump in the final few weeks - possibly because they saw him on various podcasts they watch, while Harris was doing big rallies, TV ads, and spending 650k for 90 second Vegas Sphere ads. The Dems are clearly lagging Rs in the podcast space, which given the 50m people who watched the Rogan-Trump interview, probably helped push enough people into his camp to seal a comfortable win.
First of all, I think you mean revenue. Profit is what is left after expenditures have been deducted from revenue.
Second of all, are you serious? Businesses exist to make a profit for their owners. Governments exist to serve their citizens. That's why governments will undertake activities that will never be profitable, because they have social value instead. The two are fundamentally different. This is like primary school levels of understanding.
You could instead say: "Both businesses and governments should be run efficiently", which I think most people would agree with.
There's both art and science to it.
You can poll lots of people but you still need to make assumptions about what the electorate is going to be like, and there is no formula to get that right.
Yep definitely.
That guy will be the last person I remember on my deathbed. A truly amazing moment.
My somewhat hashed out theory is a lot of people(Particularly the petite bourgeoisie)view class as a form of cultural consumption(Mostly items that use 50’s nostalgia or god awful anti liberal messaging).
Then add in the contradictions of capital which mean the inequality gap is massive but in terms consumer technology it isn’t that large. I know business owner who can easily just dropped £20,000 on a car which something I could never dream of. But we both have the similar phones, tv’s and the same gym subscription.
The end result is the petite bourgeoisie seeing themselves as the main character in 1984 because their third business had a two percentage drop in yearly profits and they caught a employee watching a tik tok of a cat looking like Karl Marx.
That’s a pretty fair way of viewing them, I think.
I’ve got parents of kids on my team who are petite bourgeois who will talk to me about how they’re “struggling” with their business / businesses but their “struggle” is not turning as high of a profit as they did before the pandemic, not actually being in the red. Meanwhile, like you said, they’re driving a brand new $50,000 SUV and living in a 3000 square foot house.
Reagan's rhetoric soured the mind of this country. In reality the individual wealth of the few to the detriment of the rest in this country has always been facilitated by the government. If Americans everywhere voted in the best interests of their wellbeing your tax contribution would be your profit. The health insurance industry here s a great example of the waste of our income.
And always an SUV that will depreciate by 8 grand a year with home utilities sitting in the thousands quarterly.
Because the sloth from Zootopia is counting them? How is this possible?!
Biden: not a well-liked man.
Yep in some sense these people lives have got “worse” but it’s nothing compared to the average poor person. I remember reading an article about that British man at a political town hall and it turned out was into motorbike racing as a hobby!
Apparently Biden team has internal polling showing him losing the election and Trump getting over 400 electoral votes. By the time he step down it was far too late.
Yup. If Biden had stayed in, states like Virginia, New Jersey, and maybe even New York would have gone red.
Biden’s work to get inflation under control was nearly miraculous, and pretty much no one thought it could be done so quickly.
As a result most Americans think he caused huge amounts of inflation.
Thanks Fox News.
If the US had 15 years of stagnant wages and inflation levels like the UK, I think Americans would have set fire to the entire country by now.
Its an easy subject for the right to demagogue. As in, "are you better off today than you were in 2019?".
This obviously glosses over the fact that there was a once in a lifetime black swan event that killed millions and destroyed supply chains, causing absurd amounts of inflation along the way.
Therefore anyone hurting economically was always going to take out their anger and frustration on the incumbent administration, especially when the Trump and the right wing lie machine are world class experts at gaslighting.
How on earth are they able to gloss over this fact? Surely they must've noticed the suddenly missing parents, grandparents and friends?
Never underestimate their ability to do that. They think it’s fake. They think climate change is fake.
Biden didn't get inflation under control, the Fed did, yet he keeps getting credit for it among his supporters. Fox News probably can't be blamed for that.
Do yourself a favor—spend just six minutes watching this (published before the election) and see for yourself why polls are fundamentally flawed.
Dopey Kamala couldn’t muster a defense of the economic record, despite some glaring bright spots—record-low unemployment, a record-high stock market, and inflation under control. She had the perfect setup for a meaningful discussion about inflation’s causes over the past four/eight years—spending deficits, COVID, etc.—and maybe even a hopeful message about the future that things are under control and looking bright.
Nope, you don't understand what I'm saying. Let's assume all that is true. Polls systemically under-estimated Trump because of bad sampling, shy voters, etc. Well, we have the results of the election now. The final under-estimation was 2-3%. So add that 3% to the favoured side of your argument!
And then tell me how X, reaching 10-20% of voters, affected the election more than facebook, reaching 50%. Explain the polling error that makes 50% and 20% indistinguishable. If the polls had predicted Kamala winning 65% of the vote and 500 electoral votes, you might have had a point...