2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins




This is gonna bring the minorities’ vote back.

This is what it boils down to if you ask me.

I cringe at most of what Trump says and his theatrics, but what I've consistently seen (from afar, don't even use social media all that much) is Dems showing utter contempt towards anyone not falling in line and lapping up all their nonsense/agenda. The media, likewise.

Kamala was the absolute worst candidate I've seen, by a distance. Not presidential, you couldn't put your finger on what exactly she stood for other than not being Trump (or Biden, but dilligently avoiding any criticism when distancing).

If it were any random country fine, but I sure as feck don't want the most powerful person on the planet to be someone I fully expect the top 20 world leaders to run rings around.
 
This isn't an issue I care much about. I only mentioned trans in a half sentence, what makes you think that's important to me? I made an entire post about crime, safety and unlimited migration, that's much more relevant to me or more specifically my wife than men wearing high heels.

I don't have to be respectful to anyone. I have decent manners therefore I am automatically respectful with every person I meet. But that's my own choice. There cannot be a law to dictate to me how I adress someone in a free country. Or let me rephrase it: If there are lawmakers promoting such ideas, they are not getting my vote and people shouldn't be surprised when people like Trump win twice.

The woke policies, especially in Germany, are way too endless to list:

Wide open borders for everyone. "No borders, no nations". Leading to not only high crime rates but also high rents because millions of refugees have to be accommodated somewhere, unsurprisingly.

200 professorships for gender studies, 3 for nuclear physics in Germany, because apparently nuclear power is meh while vagina and penis studies is the shit, leading to highest cost for electricity per kWh in the whole world.

Education system also goes to shit and partly also down to letting everyone in. You have many children of refugees in elementary school classes who don't even speak the language yet. So what do the wokes do? Put them in separate classes? No, of course not. That would be racist. Just lower the tempo and standards until everyone is equally bad. No more orientation towards the best performers but towards the underperformers so everyone can be equally bad. The left has destroyed the educational system for a long time now. Because everyone had to go to University, even those who never belonged there. Now everyone has a degree with top grades but the degree is actually worthless. Because everyone has it. Duh.

Promoting electric cars by force even though no one wants them (1/3 of current electric car drivers want to go back to combustion engines in Germany) except a few rich house owners as a second car for the wife to do the groceries, ruining the main industry of Germany. While you don't even have the electricity to power millions of electric cars because coal is meh, oil is meh, Russia is meh, fracked LNG from the US is meh but at the same time the sun doesn't fecking shine over Germany for 7 or 8 months of the year.

The entire German industry is in trouble now, from Volkswagen to ZF to Schaeffler, laying off thousands of employees or moving to the USA where energy is cheap and no one really gives a shit about Lieferkettensorgfaltpflichtengesetz (German Supply Chain Due Diligence Act). China build their own cheap cars now. Electric cars have no complexity, the Chinese can build moving iPads with multi screens and AI music infotainment system better than anyone else once there is nothing under the bonnet and so does the US with Tesla. No one needs a German premium brand with nothing under the bonnet for 80k once you promote the idea of electric cars as a German.

Endless moral policies to the detriment of the own people, like unwavering support for a regional conflict in east Ukraine. Sactioning ourselves from cheap energy supply to morally support one of the most corrupt ex soviet countries in the world. Foreign minister lecturing China and calling Xi a dictator. Cutting yourself off not only from your number 1 energy supplier but also biggest export market is such a grand idea that will benefit us I'm sure.

It's actually really simple. Don't let everyone in. Don't try to save the world to the heavy detriment of your own economy. Don't spread nonsencial ideas against common sense. Not too much to ask, but apparently it is.

You can now reply: "Ha ha, what an idiot, I'm so enlightened and you are so backwards with all those points", but it won't change the fact that central Europe is only lagging a few years behind the US. The real trouble starts once Germans start to be fed up, do poorly economically and elect a right wing politician to save them. And that's gonna happen if the woke continue to destroy as they have. The current government of SPD + Greens + FDP have already reached a record low of together under 30 %. The chancelor party sits at 15 %. :lol:

To summarize! It’s all about me and my needs. Feck the environment, refugees, democracy and all thoughts of a more equal society. As long as I can drive my petrol car to work and enjoy a warm house I don’t give a damn! I can understand this as most people are quite selfish. But at least be honest to yourself and admit it.
 
Also, the whole 'people hate celeb endorsements and being talked down to by elites' nonsense ring hollow when Republicans were wheeling out Z-listers like Kid Rock and Amber Rose to shill for them. What they hate is the fact that majority of relevant celebs seem to lean towards Democrats (at least in public) not celebrity endorsements in itself.

Are people forgetting that embarrassing idiocy with Eastwood at the RNC in 2012?
 
Trump quotes:
"When I become president, the days of treating Israel like a second-class citizen will end on day one."

"It is time to officially recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel."

"A vote for Kamala Harris is a vote to obliterate Israel – that’s what’s going to happen. Israel will not exist in two years."
Quotes are irrelevant. The policy is the same. Biden already accepted Trump’s policies on Jerusalem.


Is a full annexation of Gaza and the West Bank and expulsion of all Palestinians from both areas worse than what has already happened there. Of course it is. Trump has bamboozled these people into believing he would be an improvement over the past four years, when he simply wanted their votes, and as with every other group he's used over the past 40 years, he will forget about them and do whatever he wants.

I honestly doubt it is worse. Had Blinken been successful in convincing Al-Sissi to accept the “peaceful” ethnic cleansing of Gaza by admitting them to Egypt (and later Europe, through Cyprus) the genocidal lunatics of the IDF wouldn’t have had the opportunity to slaughter so many thousands of innocents children…
 
It appears Nate Silver's model wasn't a Peter Thiel funded pro-right wing crypto-fueled trojan horse driven by a glut of trash right wing polls after all.

As with previous cycles, Silver consistently understated Trump's strength overall and although his numbers are tightening up, he still can't seem to get the balance right between polls and people who actually wind up voting.

At least he has finally shut Alan Lichtmann up for a few years.


Nate Silver v Actual Results.

Arizona: (63% reporting)
Silver - Trump +2.4
Actual - Trump +5

Wisconsin:
Silver - Harris +1
Actual - Trump + 0.9

Michigan:
Silver: Harris +1.2
Actual: Trump +2.0

Pennsylvania:
Silver: Trump + 0.1
Actual: Trump + 3

North Carolina:
Silver: Trump + 1.1
Actual: Trump + 3

Georgia:
Silver: Trump +1
Actual: Trump + 2

Nevada:
Silver: Trump + 0.6
Actual: Trump + 4
Out of interest which snapshot have you chosen? Election day?


It’s hardly a ringing endorsement of him as a pollster, he’s out by a functionally useless amount in enough cases to make the ones he is right nothing other than a statistical probability.
 
Quotes are irrelevant. The policy is the same. Biden already accepted Trump’s policies on Jerusalem.




I honestly doubt it is worse. Had Blinken been successful in convincing Al-Sissi to accept the “peaceful” ethnic cleansing of Gaza by admitting them to Egypt (and later Europe, through Cyprus) the genocidal lunatics of the IDF wouldn’t have had the opportunity to slaughter so many thousands of innocents children…

You think that in addition to what is transpiring now, that needlessly adding fuel to the fire by expelling all Palestinians from Gaza and the WB to neighboring countries wouldn't be worse ? Interesting.
 
So the dems failed to get their voter base out to vote. Trumps voters in 2020 were about 74 million and in 2024 about 71 million so a slight drop but the dems vote in 2020 was 81 million and in 2024 71 million, a significant drop
 
So the dems failed to get their voter base out to vote. Trumps voters in 2020 were about 74 million and in 2024 about 71 million so a slight drop but the dems vote in 2020 was 81 million and in 2024 71 million, a significant drop
There are possibly lots of people who changed their votes. We'd have to wait for better data on that.
 
You think that in addition to what is transpiring now, that needlessly adding fuel to the fire by expelling all Palestinians from Gaza and the WB to neighboring countries wouldn't be worse ? Interesting.
WB is another issue. Jordan can’t cope with it and it being vital for the US in the region. Israel understands that and nobody in this military establishment would allow Netanyahu to go down that road. But nonetheless a ticking bomb…

Yes I tend to believe that ethnic cleansing is a lesser evil than complete holocaust (the current trajectory for Gaza).
 
Biden aide:

And there is another school of though, which that Biden himself has voiced: that the blame lies with former President Barack Obama and House Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi for tossing Biden to the side on two separate occasions.

“Twice our party leaders — in 2016 and 2024 — pushed aside Biden for someone who would generate more enthusiasm and twice we lost. Biden remains the only candidate who has beaten Trump, and he was tossed over once again,” one longtime Biden aide told CNN.
https://edition.cnn.com/politics/live-news/election-trump-harris-11-06-24/index.html
 
Just realized they may get to pick three Supreme Court Justices during this cycle. Alito and Thomas will surely retire, perhaps Sotomayor as well. Install three 40-somethings as judges (Aileen Cannon?), and you’re set with a conservative advantage of 7-2 for possibly decades to come.
Sotomayor should have retired last year. Ugh.
 
So the dems failed to get their voter base out to vote. Trumps voters in 2020 were about 74 million and in 2024 about 71 million so a slight drop but the dems vote in 2020 was 81 million and in 2024 71 million, a significant drop

15 million less people turned up to vote for Harris than they did Biden in 2020. So in a nutshell, Trump didn't outperform (in fact he underperformed his 2020 popular votes by 3m). People simply weren't motivated for Harris.
 
To summarize! It’s all about me and my needs. Feck the environment, refugees, democracy and all thoughts of a more equal society. As long as I can drive my petrol car to work and enjoy a warm house I don’t give a damn! I can understand this as most people are quite selfish. But at least be honest to yourself and admit it.
It's also coupled with absolutely inane short-termism. Some of those issues are real and were badly handled, but doubling down on those solutions is just bizarre.
 
Out of interest which snapshot have you chosen? Election day?


It’s hardly a ringing endorsement of him as a pollster, he’s out by a functionally useless amount in enough cases to make the ones he is right nothing other than a statistical probability.

The final polling average based on the last round of polls that came out the week before the election.
 
BBC:

In the midwestern state of Missouri, voters passed a number of ballot initiatives on Tuesday.

They voted to enshrine a woman's right to abortion in the state's constitution, overruling the state's near total abortion ban which went into place following the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v Wade.

Voters also backed a measure that would require the state to adopt a $15 minimum wage and paid sick leave requirements.

These policies are largely associated and supported by Democratic candidates and platforms, but Missouri is largely a Republican state that overwhelming backed Donald Trump in the past three elections.

Missouri is just one example of a trend we're seeing across the US in this and other recent elections - voters are backing policies in Republican states that aren't supported by the politicians they're putting in office.


The US is fecking weird, man.
 
Before the election I would have said the former but after seeing these results and reading some comments online, I think its all of the above and it relates to your second point. Everyone is online now (unlike 2016) and the right dominates social media channels so the level of discussion gets dominated by:

"Trump is for peace, Kamala is for war"
They only got this one half-wrong.
 
WB is another issue. Jordan can’t cope with it and it being vital for the US in the region. Israel understands that and nobody in this military establishment would allow Netanyahu to go down that road. But nonetheless a ticking bomb…

Yes I tend to believe that ethnic cleansing is a lesser evil than complete holocaust (the current trajectory for Gaza).

To be clear, I'm talking about adding to what has already happened, not saying would you prefer annexation to what happened since last October.
 

So she might have lost some votes from the Jewish demographic for being too soft on Palestine, but also had some people switching to Trump because she was too soft on Israel. Meanwhile, Trump just gets to say anything and it still works out for him.

This is an issue the Democrats have to address, the Republicans seem to be doing well without trying to make their tent big enough for everyone.
 
BBC:

In the midwestern state of Missouri, voters passed a number of ballot initiatives on Tuesday.

They voted to enshrine a woman's right to abortion in the state's constitution, overruling the state's near total abortion ban which went into place following the Supreme Court's overturning of Roe v Wade.

Voters also backed a measure that would require the state to adopt a $15 minimum wage and paid sick leave requirements.

These policies are largely associated and supported by Democratic candidates and platforms, but Missouri is largely a Republican state that overwhelming backed Donald Trump in the past three elections.

Missouri is just one example of a trend we're seeing across the US in this and other recent elections - voters are backing policies in Republican states that aren't supported by the politicians they're putting in office.


The US is fecking weird, man.
I mean that's kind of the best of both worlds isn't it. You get to vote for a candidate who has some policies you disagree with and instead of having to suck it up you also get to vote for the policies on their own.
 
As I said ages ago, the difficulty they had with removing Biden likely wasn’t Biden himself but the cabal that surrounded him and over many many years had earned his trust and in turn well paid and powerful jobs in his orbit as president. It’s those that needed to be convinced that they couldn’t Weekend at Bernie him into a second term and let them keep pulling the strings.


It’s those people who are bitter told you so’s today.
 
Kamala and the Dem party took for granted the black male and latino vote....it back fired completely and they lost the election because of it
 
You think that in addition to what is transpiring now, that needlessly adding fuel to the fire by expelling all Palestinians from Gaza and the WB to neighboring countries wouldn't be worse ? Interesting.
I mean this is another hypothetical and on the same level of hysterics as Trump killing democracy in America etc . I was watching interviews of American Arabs regarding the election, some lost family members or have been seriously injured, it's extremely idiotic and inhumane to expect them to vote for the Dems.

The 2 state solution is dead, the West Bank settlements continue to grow, this only ends by the Palestinians getting wiped out or they get absorbed into Israel as a unified state.

On the Palestine issue it can't get any worse whoever they vote for.
 
This is what it boils down to if you ask me.

I cringe at most of what Trump says and his theatrics, but what I've consistently seen (from afar, don't even use social media all that much) is Dems showing utter contempt towards anyone not falling in line and lapping up all their nonsense/agenda. The media, likewise.

Kamala was the absolute worst candidate I've seen, by a distance. Not presidential, you couldn't put your finger on what exactly she stood for other than not being Trump (or Biden, but dilligently avoiding any criticism when distancing).

If it were any random country fine, but I sure as feck don't want the most powerful person on the planet to be someone I fully expect the top 20 world leaders to run rings around.
I doubt that would have happened. She came across as far more fit for the job than her opponent.
 
Kamala and the Dem party took for granted the black male and latino vote....it back fired completely and they lost the election because of it
They didn't take it for granted. They didn't take any vote for granted.

The latinons have reasons to vote the way that they did, and it's not because no one tried to earn their votes. Same with black voters.
 
Kamala and the Dem party took for granted the black male and latino vote....it back fired completely and they lost the election because of it
The black male demographic wasn't why she lost as there wasn't a meaningful shift from the Dems to Trump for that to matter.

The latinos though...yikes.
 
This is what it boils down to if you ask me.

I cringe at most of what Trump says and his theatrics, but what I've consistently seen (from afar, don't even use social media all that much) is Dems showing utter contempt towards anyone not falling in line and lapping up all their nonsense/agenda. The media, likewise.

Kamala was the absolute worst candidate I've seen, by a distance. Not presidential, you couldn't put your finger on what exactly she stood for other than not being Trump (or Biden, but dilligently avoiding any criticism when distancing).

If it were any random country fine, but I sure as feck don't want the most powerful person on the planet to be someone I fully expect the top 20 world leaders to run rings around.

Ah yes this is the same Trump who has his tongue so far up Putin's arse.
 
I mean this is another hypothetical. I was watching interviews of American Arabs regarding the election, some lost family members or have beee seriously injured, it's extremely idiotic and inhumane to expect them to vote for the Dems.

The 2 state solution is dead, the West Bank settlements continue to grow, this only ends by the Palestinians getting wiped out or they get absorbed into Israel as a unified state.

Or option 3, which would be that Trump and Netanyahu get together with a few friendly Arab leaders (MBS, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan etc) and make a deal that allows Palestinians to resettle in those countries. Trump would spin it as a peace accord that would allow those countries preferred trade status and access to more US foreign military sales (ie. planes, tanks, bi-lateral training). It would be a bit like the Abraham Accords. Trump would triumphantly spin it that he resolved the Israeli-Palestinian crisis and created peace, Netanyahu and his right wing coalition would jump at the chance, and the Arab states would feel like they got something out of the deal, plus a peace accord with Israel. The only obvious problem would be that all of this involved the full on ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza and the WB.
 
Or option 3, which would be that Trump and Netanyahu get together with a few friendly Arab leaders (MBS, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan etc) and make a deal that allows Palestinians to resettle in those countries. Trump would spin it as a peace accord that would allow those countries preferred trade status and access to more US foreign military sales (ie. planes, tanks, bi-lateral training). It would be like the Abraham Accords. Trump would spin it that he resolved the Israeli-Palestinian crisis and created peace, Netanyahu and his right wing coalition would jump at the chance, and the Arab states would feel like they got something out of the deal, plus a peace accord with Israel. The only obvious problem would be that all of this involved the full on ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza and the WB.
The only problem is genocide is one hell of a qualification.
 
I live in Los Angeles at the moment as does Raoul I believe. Personally I haven't heard any criticism of Newsom outside the die hard conservatives that tried to recall him. Maybe its different in SF or SD?
I live in OC. The overall feeling for many Californians is that California is headed in the wrong direction (businesses leaving, expensive housing, crime, homelessness, illegal immigration). Newsom's approval numbers are down as evidenced in a couple polls (UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Public Policy Institute of California)
 
With this election, people should stop fantasizing about TX becoming purple or some shit anyway at least for a while.
 
I live in OC. The overall feeling for many Californians is that California is headed in the wrong direction (businesses leaving, expensive housing, crime, homelessness, illegal immigration). Newsom's approval numbers are down as evidenced in a couple polls (UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies and the Public Policy Institute of California)

I can see where Gavin would get some degree of criticism in the OC and other conservative enclaves, but all things said, that narrative seems to be largely confined to people who aren't Dems. There is also a degree of separation between perceptions of him as a Governor for local Cali specific issues and as a national level figure who is competing for higher office.

At a local level, the fact that housing and groceries are too high relative to salaries, is definitely a problem that will be an albatross around his neck. But it wouldn't be any less problematic to him than any of the antics (for example) Desantis has gotten into in FL, or any other presidential candidate in 2028 would be held accountable for in their own states.
 
Or option 3, which would be that Trump and Netanyahu get together with a few friendly Arab leaders (MBS, UAE, Qatar, Egypt, Jordan etc) and make a deal that allows Palestinians to resettle in those countries. Trump would spin it as a peace accord that would allow those countries preferred trade status and access to more US foreign military sales (ie. planes, tanks, bi-lateral training). It would be a bit like the Abraham Accords. Trump would triumphantly spin it that he resolved the Israeli-Palestinian crisis and created peace, Netanyahu and his right wing coalition would jump at the chance, and the Arab states would feel like they got something out of the deal, plus a peace accord with Israel. The only obvious problem would be that all of this involved the full on ethnic cleansing of Palestinians in Gaza and the WB.

None of those Arab states would accept that. It would be a literal existential threat and would likely cause civil war and the collapse of their regimes.

It would lead to a pool of millions of angry Palestinians, who may be incentivised to launch attacks against Israel from their ‘new home’, dragging countries like Jordan and Egypt into Lebanon style situations, with militaries that will still be designed by Israel and the USA to always retain an inferiority to Israel’s.