2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

The polls and votes are all well and good, but the MAGA/Republican strategists have spent the last 4 years improving on their plans of what to do if they lose the vote.

As insane as it is there were no repercussions for the first coup, I hope at least something has been done to defend against the 2nd one.

 
rio's upper lip said:


These guys have 77% chance for Trump.
Click to expand...


Half of American ‘polls’ or predictions seem to be campaign material. Designed to give Trump supporters validation of vote.

“If he’s going to win, I’m allowed to vote for him”

It all feels like a racket from the outside looking in.
 
Simbo said:
The polls and votes are all well and good, but the MAGA/Republican strategists have spent the last 4 years improving on their plans of what to do if they lose the vote.

As insane as it is there were no repercussions for the first coup, I hope at least something has been done to defend against the 2nd one.

Click to expand...

The gravity of it has only sunk in later for me.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Ohio is gone, gone, gone. The bleed of young voters out of state from the Cleveland and Cincinnati area and GOP swing in rural area of the state means there’s no path back for a national party that increasingly rely on college educated suburban voters.

Florida is possible but would require a substantial persuasion effort to bring back the Dade margin to Obama-Clinton level (25+), in addition to winning seniors as retirees flock to that state (Harris is showing signs of life in that regard in this cycle polling, albeit it can be just noise).

Overall, the future of the Democratic Party electoral path lies in the Sun Belt. Especially the growing metro Atlanta, Phoenix, Raleigh/research triangle. Texas is close but it will be very inelastic for a while. Meanwhile, PA is going the way of Ohio but the only reason stopping it for the moment is the size of Pittsburgh/Philadelphia and their suburbs.
Click to expand...
I have no hopes in Ohio. I’m not fully giving up on Florida.

Now, let me clarify my view:
1. OH and FL were not blue states that become red. They were swing states that became red. Obviously that limits the options of Democrats, but they didn’t lose states that they should win.

2. Democrats started to win states that used to be solidly red, like AZ and GA. Look at Romney 2012 vs. Trump 2020 and the midterms of 2022. VA and CO used to be red too.

3. Republicans started to compete in MI, WI and PA, but they didn’t become red, at least not yet.

And so, while you never know what might happen and while the GOP made gains in the rust belt since 2016, no blue state has become red.

As for TX and MS: the former will go blue sooner or later. MS is tougher, but if the black community continues to grow and votes 85-90% for the democrats, it can happen some point in the future (not anytime soon).

The only question is of course New York State. But let’s see how the Democrats do in November; they need a better showing than in 2022 to relieve the anxiety about the future of this state.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
I have no hopes in Ohio. I’m not fully giving up on Florida.

Now, let me clarify my view:
1. OH and FL were not blue states that become red. They were swing states that became red. Obviously that limits the options of Democrats, but they didn’t lose states that they should win.

2. Democrats started to win states that used to be solidly red, like AZ and GA. Look at Romney 2012 vs. Trump 2020 and the midterms of 2022. VA and CO used to be red too.

3. Republicans started to compete in MI, WI and PA, but they didn’t become red, at least not yet.

And so, while you never know what might happen and while the GOP made gains in the rust belt since 2016, no blue state has become red.

As for TX and MS: the former will go blue sooner or later. MS is tougher, but if the black community continues to grow and votes 85-90% for the democrats, it can happen some point in the future (not anytime soon).

The only question is of course New York State. But let’s see how the Democrats do in November; they need a better showing than in 2022 to relieve the anxiety about the future of this state.
Click to expand...
New York isn’t going red anytime soon, at worse it becomes VA. There are simply too many votes in NYC and the city is too diverse for it to become red.

The problem with Texas is there isnt this untapped pool of voters that is overwhelmingly Ds, so you have to rely on translants in the growing Dallas/Houston metro area, and that process will take a lot of time, the Latino population there is also much more GOP friendly, so any influx will not break 3:1 for Ds to make up the 4/5 pts margin in the short term. It's a different case to GA with its large black population that breaks at least 85-15 D.

I think FL with the right level of investment is definitely in play, the 22 result is a bit of an outlier (it’s like saying PA is solid blue because Shapiro walloped Mastriano), but it would require a lot of effort, a strong state party similar to WI and favourable national environment.
 
New York Times poll (A+), Sep 21-26

Wisconsin President Harris +2
Michigan President Harris +1
Ohio President Trump +6
Nebraska 2nd President Harris +9

Wisconsin US Senate Baldwin +7
Michigan US Senate Slotkin +4
Ohio US Senate Brown +4
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
New York Times poll (A+), Sep 21-26

Wisconsin President Harris +2
Michigan President Harris +1
Ohio President Trump +6
Nebraska 2nd President Harris +9

Wisconsin US Senate Baldwin +7
Michigan US Senate Slotkin +4
Ohio US Senate Brown +4
Click to expand...

Good numbers for Brown at least, it's crucial he wins his race.

NYT is a bit all over the place this cycle though, find it hard to trust them much.
 
Last edited:
ManUtd1999 said:
I have no hopes in Ohio. I’m not fully giving up on Florida.

Now, let me clarify my view:
1. OH and FL were not blue states that become red. They were swing states that became red. Obviously that limits the options of Democrats, but they didn’t lose states that they should win.

2. Democrats started to win states that used to be solidly red, like AZ and GA. Look at Romney 2012 vs. Trump 2020 and the midterms of 2022. VA and CO used to be red too.

3. Republicans started to compete in MI, WI and PA, but they didn’t become red, at least not yet.

And so, while you never know what might happen and while the GOP made gains in the rust belt since 2016, no blue state has become red.

As for TX and MS: the former will go blue sooner or later. MS is tougher, but if the black community continues to grow and votes 85-90% for the democrats, it can happen some point in the future (not anytime soon).

The only question is of course New York State. But let’s see how the Democrats do in November; they need a better showing than in 2022 to relieve the anxiety about the future of this state.
Click to expand...
Trump isn't running away with Florida like I thought he would. There hasn't been many Florida polls but the few I've seen from top rated pollsters only have Harris down a few points. I can see her performing slightly better there than Biden did. The Trump momentum in Florida seems to have slowed down compared to where it was in 2020.
 
Morty_ said:
Good numbers for Brown at least, it's crucial he wins his race.

NYT is a bit all over the place this cycle though, find it hard to trust them much.
Click to expand...


Either they will prove prescient, or their 2020 vote recall model will be a massive egg on face moment. Oversampled polls like the Harvard IOP youth poll or Pew Identity poll of Hispanics found basically unchanged level of support in those groups from 2020, whereas mainstream horse race pollsters are showing these numbers (52% swing in 18-29 in 1 month, 17% support from Asian+Hispanics etc)
 
Simbo said:
The polls and votes are all well and good, but the MAGA/Republican strategists have spent the last 4 years improving on their plans of what to do if they lose the vote.

As insane as it is there were no repercussions for the first coup, I hope at least something has been done to defend against the 2nd one.

Click to expand...


There were repercussions for the people on the ground, not for the politicians.

These people on the video were the more insane ones and paid the price. Mkre than 1000 prison sentences that will be in there forever when they will try to find a job for example.

No one will try something like that this time. They know what it will happen to them
 
4bars said:
There were repercussions for the people on the ground, not for the politicians.

These people on the video were the more insane ones and paid the price. Mkre than 1000 prison sentences that will be in there forever when they will try to find a job for example.

No one will try something like that this time. They know what it will happen to them
Click to expand...
When you watch that too its kind of insane that no more deaths happened. Especially the Capitol police seemed to have every excuse to respond with much more violence than they did. The way they cry about the one lady that was shot is truly incredible when you think about that most of those nut jobs would shoot people for less.

And yes I full agree with you that the biggest tragedy about all this is that the politicians who were directly involved in staging and encouraging this mostly walked off free while the common folk got punished. Yet they somehow convinced them its the other guys that are to blame. This era in politics will be the subject of studies for decades to come. And sadly In am partly convinced thats all that matters to some of the ring leaders of Trump & Co - to be written in the history books no matter the cost.
 
Redplane said:
When you watch that too its kind of insane that no more deaths happened. Especially the Capitol police seemed to have every excuse to respond with much more violence than they did. The way they cry about the one lady that was shot is truly incredible when you think about that most of those nut jobs would shoot people for less.

And yes I full agree with you that the biggest tragedy about all this is that the politicians who were directly involved in staging and encouraging this mostly walked off free while the common folk got punished. Yet they somehow convinced them its the other guys that are to blame. This era in politics will be the subject of studies for decades to come. And sadly In am partly convinced thats all that matters to some of the ring leaders of Trump & Co - to be written in the history books no matter the cost.
Click to expand...

If Trump wins, he will pardon them all, so that could open a huge can of worms in future elections that doesn't go their way as they might think that every R will pardon them regardless
 
4bars said:
There were repercussions for the people on the ground, not for the politicians.

These people on the video were the more insane ones and paid the price. Mkre than 1000 prison sentences that will be in there forever when they will try to find a job for example.

No one will try something like that this time. They know what it will happen to them
Click to expand...
I certainly hope you're right, you might be. I think that's wishful thinking myself. Stuff like the "army" of ballot workers and election lawyers they've been bragging about having ready in place. Project '25 were saying two years ago they already had thousands of 'volunteers' recruited and ready to go to take over government posts on day one.

1,000 convicted useful morons won't change anything. Stone/Bannon/Flynn/Manafort/etc, or whoever really runs the show behind the scenes don't give a shit. Only 500 ish of those got prison sentences anyway, they won't be discouraged, especially not if they think they'll win, then all charges go away. They've already got the bought and paid for Supreme Court on their side trying to get them overturned regardless.

They have one branch of government fully under control, they won't likely ever have another chance at this. I've no idea how they'll do it, I doubt it'll be another storming the capital job, I just know they will try something. There's plenty useful idiots to go round and if they think they'll win this time, they have nothing to lose. Add the Russian angle into that, there's so much at stake for Putin with this election, potentially the entire war and his head, there will be no expense spared on that front. Even if there's no actual way to steal it because of robust 'checks and balances', they'll at least create as much carnage as possible.
 
Simbo said:
I certainly hope you're right, you might be. I think that's wishful thinking myself. Stuff like the "army" of ballot workers and election lawyers they've been bragging about having ready in place. Project '25 were saying two years ago they already had thousands of 'volunteers' recruited and ready to go to take over government posts on day one.

1,000 convicted useful morons won't change anything. Stone/Bannon/Flynn/Manafort/etc, or whoever really runs the show behind the scenes don't give a shit. Only 500 ish of those got prison sentences anyway, they won't be discouraged, especially not if they think they'll win, then all charges go away. They've already got the bought and paid for Supreme Court on their side trying to get them overturned regardless.

They have one branch of government fully under control, they won't likely ever have another chance at this. I've no idea how they'll do it, I doubt it'll be another storming the capital job, I just know they will try something. There's plenty useful idiots to go round and if they think they'll win this time, they have nothing to lose. Add the Russian angle into that, there's so much at stake for Putin with this election, potentially the entire war and his head, there will be no expense spared on that front. Even if there's no actual way to steal it because of robust 'checks and balances', they'll at least create as much carnage as possible.
Click to expand...

But if they are in power, there is no need for them to revolt. And sure, then everything goes with another Trump administration, project 2025? mayg3, gutting the administration and fill it with sycophants? maybe. Judges? maybe. All very scary and more dangerous than a January 6.

If they lose, no one of those morons will risk their skin again knowing what would happen to them seeing the magatards that they paid the price in Jan 6
 
A ton of political commercials on during the USC/WI game today here in NC. All but one of the GOP ads has been “Woke this” and “woke that”. Does woke actually play with general voters?? Seems silly.
 
WI_Red said:
A ton of political commercials on during the USC/WI game today here in NC. All but one of the GOP ads has been “Woke this” and “woke that”. Does woke actually play with general voters?? Seems silly.
Click to expand...
My sense is that it is longer an issue as it was in 2022. The country has moved a bit (or more than just a bit) on. Hard core republicans have not. The general public is not concerned about books and the like.

Look at this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/03/09/desantis-florida-woke-culture-wars-legislature/

It also could help explain why FL is not as red as it was in 2022.
 
AtlasIntel polling this cycle is hilarious, makes Rasmussen and Trafalgar look legit by comparison, but it really makes me wonder how some of these pollsters get the ranking that they have.

A-rated pollster? Yeah right.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
I have no hopes in Ohio. I’m not fully giving up on Florida.

Now, let me clarify my view:
1. OH and FL were not blue states that become red. They were swing states that became red. Obviously that limits the options of Democrats, but they didn’t lose states that they should win.

2. Democrats started to win states that used to be solidly red, like AZ and GA. Look at Romney 2012 vs. Trump 2020 and the midterms of 2022. VA and CO used to be red too.

3. Republicans started to compete in MI, WI and PA, but they didn’t become red, at least not yet.

And so, while you never know what might happen and while the GOP made gains in the rust belt since 2016, no blue state has become red.

As for TX and MS: the former will go blue sooner or later. MS is tougher, but if the black community continues to grow and votes 85-90% for the democrats, it can happen some point in the future (not anytime soon).

The only question is of course New York State. But let’s see how the Democrats do in November; they need a better showing than in 2022 to relieve the anxiety about the future of this state.
Click to expand...

Mississippi is as solidly red as it gets, and it's unlikely to shift toward blue anytime soon—unless there's something I’m not aware of. The closest the state came to leaning Democratic in a presidential election was back in 1980.
 
Eyepopper said:
People are still voting for this?

America is fu ked.



Click to expand...


His entire rant was off the fecking charts, even for him. Going to ban sanctuary cities and empty them of migrants. I've got a beautiful body, much better than Sleepy Joe's.

Kamala was born mentally impaired with mental illness. She's stupid.

MK47's, I know that gun very well, I got to know it very well. I've become an expert on guns, quickly. (Yes there is an MK-47 but no fecking way did Trump mean that gun)

I left Kamala Harris with the safest border of all time, the lowest numbers of immigrants in the history of our country. It was the best border ever. Kamala walked down and opened up the border.

Her dad's a Marxist, I'd love to meet him.

2,000 inside but 50,000 outside...

Kamala uses a phone app to let immigrants in. Most people don't know what the hell a phone app is. She flies hundreds of thousands of immigrants in a day using her app. The Cartels use it too.

Fear and hate non stop for 60 minutes. I've listened to many, many of Trump's speeches and this was definitely up there with the most unhinged, insulting and batshit off the wall crazy.

But, there was one highlight... His hair. Throughout the entire rant the spotlights were directly on his head and made him look like he had purple hair. :lol:

It's the little things. :lol:
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.