He would be one of the leading contenders next time if Harris loses. Shapiro, Whitmer, Buttigieg, and maybe Pritzger as well.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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He would be one of the leading contenders next time if Harris loses. Shapiro, Whitmer, Buttigieg, and maybe Pritzger as well.
OK, so I read it (now) as evangelicals who support Trump, which is indeed cognitive dissonance at its finest. 39% of Democrats responded "none" or "other" when asked about religious affiliation, while 38% chose "Protestant" and 23% "Catholic". So Christians as a loosely defined group are still 64% of the Democratic Party. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1411981/us-religious-identity-of-republicans-and-democrats-2023/ and https://www.pewresearch.org/religio...base/compare/christians/by/party-affiliation/
Evangelicals get lumped in with Southern Baptists and other regressive/repressive forms of Christianity, the kinds you see on the news at Trump rallies, but they are intersecting circles, not concentric. I am thoroughly confused by the so-called evangelicals who support such an obviously amoral/immoral con artist like Trump.
But the point of this convention was appealing to moderates, to the middle. This election will be won on the margins. This wasn't a stump speech. The entire goal was to reintroduce Harris to the undecided as ready to govern on day 1, extolling the gains of the Biden presidency while not tethering herself to its missteps/failures. It was and will continue to be a balancing act.
The right wing since Newt Gingrich at the latest have tried to claim Christianity as their sole province, while the Democrats believe more in the 'freedom of religion' part. During the DNC, the Democrats worked overtime to reclaim not only the symbols that have been coopted by the right, (like the flag, the national anthem), but also to reclaim the religious/Christian sphere. Since Trump, Democrats have been accused of hating America, being anti-Christian, anti-religious, enemies of freedom, in league with the devil, you name it. The face Harris presented to the electorate this week sought to destroy all that.
In 2025 and beyond there will likely be another reason why they can’t enact it. Imo this just a standard party promise which they throw to the base knowing they will never have to do anything about it.
It might seem that way but I promise you we are serious about it this time, just like Lucy holding the football for Charlie Brown.
That's pretty normal in the US. Politicians promise things but after winning, often lack the political capitol to implement any of what they promised.
That’s a great reference.
True but also means its pretty much a utopian promise as well. At the very least if the conditions needed are completely democratic control then voters should be told this.
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Once Kennedy resigns which appears quite likely, some of his votes are inevitably going to shift to Trump. It appears that Trump is still favorite but not an overwhelming one like he used to be when Biden was still in the race.This should be a massive wake up call for Harris supporters. All of the hard work still lies ahead.
Also, the weekly trend on Silver's site is slowly, but unmistakably moving back towards Trump.
Agreed. If its pretty much 50/50 now, Trump may become the slight favorite if he gets 30% of RFK's votes.
I don't think Trump is the favorite anymore, personal opinion, elections since dobbs underestimate dems often, and pollsters says they have tried to adjust for 2020, though who knows.
There is also the fact that there is no "energy" around Trump these days, but he can win an uphill battle, like in 2016, of course.
Which is fair, he’s a Tim Mellon plant.
The second reason is probably the more legitimate of the two. RFK is half way between Alex Jones and anything resembling the Dem party platform, and engaging him just f or votes would've resulted in a perception that Dems are ok with conspiracy theories in exchange for about 1-2% of extra popular vote numbers.
I do not see RFK dropping out as bad for the Democrats. More an indication that the people funding him to run have realised he wasn't going to succeed as a spoiler for the Democratic vote.
Its RFK himself who has been pimping himself out to both sides, so ultimately, its less so a matter of funding and more of him attempting to negotiate his way into a role with the winning side. In this case, the Dems were never likely to touch him and Trump was always likely to accept his support, then ditch him after he wins.
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Eh, him dropping out and endorsing Trump will help him, it may not be much, but it will help him, sadly.
Hopefully, dems have enough of a margin that the extra 1% or so Trump gets from it, won't matter.
With this, Trump probably ust about cancels out the momentum dems had with the convention, which alone is pretty good for him.
Yeah unlike 2016 the last couple of elections actually overestimated the extent of support Republicans have.
I agree with the momentum, Trump seems to be falling apart and everything he’s done in recent weeks has in my view made him less likely to win. Hope he stays on this path and Vance continues to do his damage.
Well I would be more than happy, if Harris became the next president and continued Biden policies.
Will be much worse, if the orange clown going to win and implement project 2025.
How? What has Trump done to change the trend? All I saw of him on YouTube is whining, rambling, personal attacks. Never saw him so tired and devoid of energy.
Its more so a reversion to a new mean imo. Harris' initial rise was so strong that once it settled, Trump was bound to claw back some of her gains once he started negatively messaging about her being a communist, being responsible for the border crisis etc.
Trump's own favorables have a ceiling of around 44-45%. Harris has a much higher ceiling, so Trump's strategy to win will be to lower her favorable numbers and raise her unfavorables so that it suppresses her turnout enough for him to win in November. It worked with Hillary and didn't work with Biden, so we will see what happens this time.
Regression to the mean after a hype bump, I’d guess. Which would mean Trump is unlikely to keep rising if he doesn’t change his demeanour. Which he’s unable to. Still way more potential upside for Harris.
Like a technical rebound after a stock market crash?
On the other hand I'm surprised Trump could collect additional votes with the nonsense he is spouting. He must have won some independents with this bullshit as all the MAGA dickheads are voting for him already anyway.
Do you mean actually it's not Trump getting more votes but Harris losing some support because her momentum after replacing Biden is losing steam?
The first term of Trump wasn't as bad as it could have been. He wasn't prepared and hired a lot of people who actually were managing him and prevented the worst.
With project 2025 in place and the names floating around who will have position in his shadow government, I fear a second Trump term will be much, much worse than the first one.
Thus, every halfway clear thinking American should get their ass up and save us (the world) from this lunatic.
Being not American it's very frustrating to follow what's going on without being able to do anything.
I honestly thought after January 6th Trump would be done for good. I'm still puzzled that he has a distinctive chance to become the next president.
What's wrong with America?
Yes - sort of like a rebound after a black swan event such as the pandemic. Stocks fell so far, there would be an inevitable rubber band effect in the following days.
Basically, it means Trump getting enough Harris voters to stay home and not vote by raising her negatives through his messaging. That would allow him to win despite having much less popular votes.
Much like his favorability rating, he also has a very clear ceiling, you rarely see national polls for him above 47, even with Biden i don't think it was above 50 very often, so no disagreement there, he aims to bring down Harris to his level.
Now, last i saw, there hasn't been much coming from battleground states this week, so how much faith you put in a single poll(in some circumstances) in a swing state here or there, i leave up to you.
Nothing has changed nationally, if anything, a slight upwards tick for Harris is what i can see.
I think a lot of the votes for Kennedy will simply not vote. There's a lot of voters looking for an "anything but the big ticket" vote.
Can't believe this got no love. You deserved better mate.
The biggest donut in that shop was Vance..
Thing is we have to act like we are losing and it’s an uphill climb. Dems are incredibly motivated this time though, so be of good cheer, friends.
Can't believe this got no love. You deserved better mate.
I can’t lie I was a little disappointed it got no appreciation!
I mean 32 hours, not a single minute for a single Palestinian American, "because it looks bad on our polling if we do not side with genocide"?
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That is certainly bad news, no way around it.
His numbers were declining and many who supported him were disillusioned Democrats who won't vote for Trump no matter who endorses him.
Can't believe this got no love. You deserved better mate.
The biggest donut in that shop was Vance..
They should name one after him but make it bland and dry as feck!
Every percentage matters, he still had like 4% of the national vote, if he convinces that extra 1% to go with Trump, could be all the difference.
I think most of his supporters will not vote at all.
RFK Jr endorsing Trump, helps Trump and hurts Kamala, its just logical.
This cancels the momentum the democrats had out of the convention, RFK Jr is just another traitor, so it is what it is.
He's gotta be trolling.
Nothing we can do about RFK so just have to get on with it. What a weird, weird man though. The thing that kills me with that - his little ego-driven campaign probably cost 20m. Just lit on fire. F*ck sake.
you prefer a neocon who started 2 wars, violated civil liberties with the Patriot Act and presided over the worst economic disaster since the Great Depression?
Trump is bad but the rehabilitation of W is mind boggling, people truly have the memory of gold fishes.