2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Just now catching Kamala's speech. She put no wrong foot forward, not a great sspeech but very, very good.

It will be interesting to see what the convention bump will be.

Hate to say it, but will it be nullified by the RFK announcement today?

If he endorses Trump, it gives them license to say, "Todays Democrats are no longer the party of JFK" etc etc.
 
She did great. Walked the line really well.
unless im missing something, she said nothing new. the same things that are being said over here by labour. hostages / ceasefire / 2 state solution.
problem is that messaging hasnt changed since last year, wheras the carnage has continued.
if she was being bold, she wouldve re-iterated their support for Israel but put a clear line between the dems and the regime of bibi and his jewish fanatics.
 
Hate to say it, but will it be nullified by the RFK announcement today?

If he endorses Trump, it gives them license to say, "Todays Democrats are no longer the party of JFK" etc etc.
Don't think so, it's just not as big an issue to knock the convention from its high right now. Might get a mention buried somewhere in the broadcasts.
 
Don't think so, it's just not as big an issue to knock the convention from its high right now. Might get a mention buried somewhere in the broadcasts.

I disagree. I think RFK will get more exposure from this announcement that he would from anything else he has done in his campaign so far - including the bear carcass!
Trump will squeeze every last drop out of it.

You think they will give him the Health Secretary position?
 
unless im missing something, she said nothing new. the same things that are being said over here by labour. hostages / ceasefire / 2 state solution.
problem is that messaging hasnt changed since last year, wheras the carnage has continued.
if she was being bold, she wouldve re-iterated their support for Israel but put a clear line between the dems and the regime of bibi and his jewish fanatics.

Maybe, but im not sure how they helps any potential peace deal.
If the objective is a ceasfire, especially in the near term, then its important not to put anyone nose out of joint.
 
Right, we shouldn’t be overconfident, but Jonathan Lemire is annoying. Suddenly he’s coming up with this tweet?!! The morning after Harris’s speech?
What's wrong with taking a sober look at the numbers? Harris seems to be generating a lot of positive energy, which is good, but it's honestly better to be overly cautious and keep the eye on the ball. They can't get complacent.
 
What's wrong with taking a sober look at the numbers? Harris seems to be generating a lot of positive energy, which is good, but it's honestly better to be overly cautious and keep the eye on the ball. They can't get complacent.
I agree, and I talked about this during the week. But, to tweet this a before 7:30 am the morning after the acceptance speech? Didn’t he know this yesterday? Can’t he just let us a bit more about the speech for few more hours before this tweet? C’mon, he’s like Shreeves…
 
I agree, and I talked about this during the week. But, to tweet this a before 7:30 am the morning after the acceptance speech? Didn’t he know this yesterday? Can’t he just let us a bit more about the speech for few more hours before this tweet?
I mean the guy is not some all powerful being that determines the narrative on his own. It's just one tweet.
 
I mean the guy is not some all powerful being that determines the narrative on his own. It's just one tweet.
It will be quoted left and right. Indeed, it even made it to Red Cafe in the middle of discussions about the convention. Geofff Shreeves all over again.

He could’ve waited until the afternoon and that wouldn’t matter a bit. Right? This is not “BREAKING NEWS”… annoying attitude.
 
The 'I look down on peasants' moment captured on film, unintentionally. These things are so forced. "How long have you been here?" is such a "I don't have anything to say to you peasants."

A really really odd interaction, especially considering, unlike Sunak for instance, he is supposed to have grown up at least in exactly these kinds of environments.

Too much time spent with silicon valley VC/tech bros clearly.
 
The Trump campaign peaked too early with the assassination and all and then Biden dropped out and it changed the momentum.

Now, with the DNC over, it's still about 2 months before the election and Harris has to be careful about maintaining her momentum.
 
I am trying to understand what these right-wing idiots who snuck into the DNC in disguises etc. were doing. Just saw the clip of the "My Pillow" fraud Mike Lindell arguing with a 12 year old influencer. I mean these people are crazy. Instead of worrying about how he drove his company into the ground to bury his face up trumps rump he's yelling at little kids about conspiracies.
 
unless im missing something, she said nothing new. the same things that are being said over here by labour. hostages / ceasefire / 2 state solution.
problem is that messaging hasnt changed since last year, wheras the carnage has continued.
if she was being bold, she wouldve re-iterated their support for Israel but put a clear line between the dems and the regime of bibi and his jewish fanatics.
From what I gathered, the speech had a good dose of racism, war-mongering, and misinformation. So not different from Biden which is expected.
 
unless im missing something, she said nothing new. the same things that are being said over here by labour. hostages / ceasefire / 2 state solution.
problem is that messaging hasnt changed since last year, wheras the carnage has continued.
if she was being bold, she wouldve re-iterated their support for Israel but put a clear line between the dems and the regime of bibi and his jewish fanatics.

Agree with this. She attempted to assuage the concerns of both sides without really saying anything substantive that would be a significant departure from Biden’s policy.
 
The current frenzy surrounding her has quite a unique but also disconcerting feeling, and shows the desperation that reigned in the Democratic camp until Biden was pushed out. Now everybody just wants to believe, no questions asked.

Under normal circumstances no one would've paid her any attention, let alone chosen her as a presidential candidate and she'd have disappeared into political nothingness. Now she's a quasi Messiah.

From an outsider point of view, this whole convention is nothing short of a circus I'll never understand.

Yes, it was a bit too heavy on entertainment and light on substance. Hopefully the latter comes out more in the coming weeks and months.
 
I disagree. I think RFK will get more exposure from this announcement that he would from anything else he has done in his campaign so far - including the bear carcass!
Trump will squeeze every last drop out of it.

You think they will give him the Health Secretary position?
RFK Jr is a kook, and a dangerous kook at that. His campaign was propped up by his VP’s cash infusion and GOP strategists, and little else.
The Trump campaign peaked too early with the assassination and all and then Biden dropped out and it changed the momentum.

Now, with the DNC over, it's still about 2 months before the election and Harris has to be careful about maintaining her momentum.
Still to come: Beyoncé and Taylor Swift barnstorming voter drive support tours!
 
The 'I look down on peasants' moment captured on film, unintentionally. These things are so forced. "How long have you been here?" is such a "I don't have anything to say to you peasants."

It’s so odd.

“What are your most popular flavours?”
“One glazed dozen and a mixed dozen of your choice”

Any kind of normal opener.

He’s a weird little Fcuk.
 
It was looking pretty bleak with Biden, i will admit that, but going back to something i've said earlier, its worth mentioning that the GOP hasn't had a single good election after 2016, not one.

They are not really that strong as a national party these days, dems don't have to be perfect in order to defeat them.
 
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Does this encompass all believers of any religion, or only Christians?
The fervour and actual beliefs of evangelicals - plus the implications of the tenants - make them a special case to me. In terms of how one should live their lives given said beliefs. But not a topic for here.

Also the fact that these pious folk are willing to almost universally get behind Donald f*cking Trump pretty much just shows you who they are.
 
they have taken a leaf out of the Labour book, in that just sound normal and sensible (centrist?) and stay policy lite. whilst triggering the other side to make them appear even more batshit crazy.
that might get them power, but for someone from the left, it isnt a half depressing state of affairs.

the de-platforming of the palestinians within the democrats is beyond parody, and morally repugnant.
 


This should be a massive wake up call for Harris supporters. All of the hard work still lies ahead.

The main finding: Standard polls capture voters who are more engaged with politics and consider it more important to their identity. That kind of bias wouldn’t necessarily cause problems in a low-turnout election, like an off year or midterm, because those are exactly the kind of voters who show up.

But in a presidential race, when lower-propensity voters also turn out, that could be an issue. And the kind of time, effort and expense that went into getting those voters to participate isn’t scalable in a fast-changing election.

Also, the weekly trend on Silver's site is slowly, but unmistakably moving back towards Trump.

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Back in 2020



Back in 2015 -


The democrats always run on this.
Democrats couldn't enact it in 2016 because that election didn't exactly break our way, to put it mildly. In 2020, holdouts like Manchin and Sinema torpedoed most of Biden's agenda from day 1, including the Build Back Better plan, voting rights, you name it. With Republicans controlling the House and a divided Senate, legislation is not going to sail through.
 
I disagree. I think RFK will get more exposure from this announcement that he would from anything else he has done in his campaign so far - including the bear carcass!
Trump will squeeze every last drop out of it.

You think they will give him the Health Secretary position?
He's a sideshow at best.