2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

Am I right in right in my understanding that Dems need to win atleast 4 out of 5 swing states to win the election while Republicans would only need to win 1-2?

I am only counting PA, MI, WI, NV and AZ as key swing states and assuming GA and FL go red. Also assuming MN will go blue.

Therefore, for Trump to win the election, he just needs:

PA

or

MI + AZ

or

WI + AZ


If this is true, then even if the Democrats had fielded a strong democratic nominee, the odds were never that great.

Trump can simply put his entire campaigning efforts into AZ and one of the midwest states and win this election (whichever has higher momentum to flip).

Which among PA, MI, WI has highest probability of flipping to red?


***Correction, it seems like Dems can get to 270 by winning PA + MI + WI
 
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RedRover said:
I read an interesting theory that he can't separate "asylum" as in seeking it, from it's other connotation.

It's made, but possible true.
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Ha, I read this too. That he can't separate political asylum from mental asylum.
 
Kaush949 said:
Am I right in right in my understanding that Dems need to win atleast 4 out of 5 swing states to win the election while Republicans would only need to win 1-2?

I am only counting PA, MI, WI, NV and AZ as key swing states and assuming GA and FL go red. Also assuming MN will go blue.

Therefore, for Trump to win the election, he just needs:

PA

or

NV + AZ

or

MI + AZ

or

WI + AZ


If this is true, then even if the Democrats had fielded a strong democratic nominee, the odds were never that great.

Trump can simply put his entire campaigning efforts into AZ and one of the midwest states and win this election (whichever has higher momentum to flip).
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I think that Dems can win by winning just PA, MI and WI, assuming that they get that vote in Nebraska (second district). Usually Nebraska goes red but second district has a vote that usually goes blue (the inverse of Maine where the state goes blue but one district that has its own vote goes red).

This of course holds under the assumption that Dems win Virigina and Minnesota, while GOP wins Georgia. Florida, like Ohio, is not anymore a swing state.
 
PA seems to be pretty much even now given a few other polls that have Trump slightly ahead.

BTW....who names their company POS strategies.

 
VorZakone said:
Anyone know why Trump keeps talking about Hannibal Lecter?
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Because he thinks other countries are sending migrants from their mental institutions and insane asylums, apparently.

But then again at other times he seems to really like him so it's impossible to make sense of his ramblings.

“Has anyone ever seen The Silence of the Lambs?” Trump asked the crowd once he had started in on his false “insane asylums” migration claims. “The late, great Hannibal Lecter. He’s a wonderful man. He oftentimes would have a friend for dinner. Remember the last scene? ‘Excuse me, I’m about to have a friend for dinner,’ as this poor doctor walked by. ‘I’m about to have a friend for dinner.’ But Hannibal Lecter. Congratulations. The late, great Hannibal Lecter.”
 
Revan said:
I think that Dems can win by winning just PA, MI and WI, assuming that they get that vote in Nebraska (second district). Usually Nebraska goes red but second district has a vote that usually goes blue (the inverse of Maine where the state goes blue but one district that has its own vote goes red).

This of course holds under the assumption that Dems win Virigina and Minnesota, while GOP wins Georgia. Florida, like Ohio, is not anymore a swing state.
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Correct, but they wouldn't need that 2nd Nebraska district. If Harris gets Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Trump gets Georgia and Arizona it's still 279-259 for Harris (assuming they each take one Nebraska and Maine).

Compared to 2020, the Democrats need to lose fewer than 37 EC votes to still win. The four really close states were Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), Wisconsin (10) and Arizona (11). So if the other states are the same as in 2020, they could lose any combination of two of those states and still win the election, as long as they hold the other two. But of course Michigan in particular could be tight.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Correct, but they wouldn't need that 2nd Nebraska district. If Harris gets Virginia, Minnesota, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, while Trump gets Georgia and Arizona it's still 279-259 for Harris (assuming they each take one Nebraska and Maine).

Compared to 2020, the Democrats need to lose fewer than 37 EC votes to still win. The four really close states were Pennsylvania (20), Georgia (16), Wisconsin (10) and Arizona (11). So if the other states are the same as in 2020, they could lose any combination of two of those states and still win the election, as long as they hold the other two. But of course Michigan in particular could be tight.
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Even if GOP wins PA and GA?
 
Kaush949 said:
How did Florida become such a deep red state?
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Its usually more of a swing state, albeit leaning more R lately. The issue is that Dems have put up uninspiring candidates resulting in R wins. Usually, when Dems have winning candidates, they also win FL. The only outliers are Biden and Clinton's second term. Jimmy Carter, Clinton 92, and Obama 08 and 12 all won FL. More recently, Trump seems to have managed to do well there because he is FL based and seems to have cut into the Dem stronghold in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. He is especially strong among Cubans.
 
Raoul said:
Its usually more of a swing state, albeit leaning more R lately. The issue is that Dems have put up uninspiring candidates resulting in R wins. Usually, when Dems have winning candidates, they also win FL. The only outliers are Biden and Clinton's second term. Jimmy Carter, Clinton 92, and Obama 08 and 12 all won FL. More recently, Trump seems to have managed to do well there because he is FL based and seems to have cut into the Dem stronghold in Dade, Broward and Palm Beach. He is especially strong among Cubans.
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Probably lots have to do with DeSantis, who has been quite popular there (winning by 20 points the gubernatorial race that was usually super competitive).
 
Revan said:
Probably lots have to do with DeSantis, who has been quite popular there (winning by 20 points the gubernatorial race that was usually super competitive).
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DeSantis is such an interesting case study, seeing as how he wins Florida by so much, but then when he leaves the state he basically becomes a meme and is laughed out of the race
 
Carolina Red said:
DeSantis is such an interesting case study, seeing as how he wins Florida by so much, but then when he leaves the state he basically becomes a meme and is laughed out of the race
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He has 0 charisma and his federal politics have essentially been grouping illegal immigrants and sending them to some blue state. But he is popular in Florida, have no idea about his governing.
 
Revan said:
Probably lots have to do with DeSantis, who has been quite popular there (winning by 20 points the gubernatorial race that was usually super competitive).
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Even before DeSantis, Trump outperformed there in 16 because Hillary didn't resonate. DeSantis himself nearly lost to Andrew Gillum in 2018.
 
Based on the recent polls above it currently looks something like this, with MI being in neither camp. I think Harris will make a strong play for NC, GA, and NV in case she happens to lose one of the rust belt states.

mne4v.png
 
VorZakone said:
Hot take: can the Dems flip Texas? ;)
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No. It will take a massive grassroots campaign akin to the Georgia efforts of Stacy Abrams etc the last time. And even then as seen in current polling GA is still swing. Even with the transplants from other states etc and all the major cities are solid blue. The rest of the state is solid red.
 
Has the calf-cramper still got ambitions in Texas or has he retreated from public view after the failed presidential campaign?
 
decorativeed said:
What a load of bollocks. He accuses the Dems of creating their own reality, but backs up the proven serial liar Trump.

Ridiculous mental gymnastics.
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He knows what he's doing. He's just another scumbag billionaire who will stand to gain something with Trump in power.
 
Raoul said:
More importantly, the MAGA twitter ecosystem are furiously reposting it. The birtherism of 2024 apparently.
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It’s not even birtherism though, that context of that was Obama being an illegitimate president as a non-American.


Trump isn’t claiming she’s not an American citizen by birth, he’s just deciding her racially identity for her.
 
Raoul said:
More importantly, the MAGA twitter ecosystem are furiously reposting it. The birtherism of 2024 apparently.
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Racists just taking umbrage at having 2 parents now, it seems.
 
Pexbo said:
It’s not even birtherism though, that context of that was Obama being an illegitimate president as a non-American.


Trump isn’t claiming she’s not an American citizen by birth, he’s just deciding her racially identity for her.
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The purpose of birtherism was to "otherize" the candidate, not to realistically expect them to admit they weren't born in the US. The same othering is happening here with Harris. The underlying message to voters being "she's not really one of us".
 
The bookies had Trump as a heavy favourite, but the odds are closing rapidly, especially after yesterday. It's almost 50/50 and Kamala is closing the gap daily. I would not be surprised to see her as favourite sometime soon.

Yesterday was disastrous for Trump.
 
VorZakone said:
Ha, I read this too. That he can't separate political asylum from mental asylum.
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Nah, maybe that's where the association came from in his head first, but he's been more specific. He thinks Central American countries are emptying out their insane asylums (filled with the late great Hannibal Lecter who wants to have you for dinner) and letting the inmates pour across the border.
 
If Harris is picking up black voters, especially female, then I would think that helps her a lot in GA, especially with that Trump interview the other day
 
Red in STL said:
If Harris is picking up black voters, especially female, then I would think that helps her a lot in GA, especially with that Trump interview the other day
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She's also made Keisha Lance-Bottoms, former mayor of Atlanta, one of her campaign's senior advisors. Between that, Biden's strong showing in 2020, and Stacey Abrams' ability to GOTV, I think Harris will have a decent shot at GA.
 
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