2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Heat drives people insane.
Hot take: can the Dems flip Texas?
I don't think so, no, but getting it close enough, say, 3-4 points, could put the senate seat in play, as Cruz will underperform top of the ticket.
Stopped reading when he mentioned DEI. That's when you know someone has been radicalized and drank the MAGA kool aid.
I expect Georgia to be as close as it was in 2020. I think she will be alright in Michigan despite what that poll had. Biden won there by nearly 200k votes in 2020, I can't see Harris losing that ground personally. Black vote will be massive for her. North Carolina I'm not confident on as I really thought Biden was going to flip it in 2020.Based on the recent polls above it currently looks something like this, with MI being in neither camp. I think Harris will make a strong play for NC, GA, and NV in case she happens to lose one of the rust belt states.
Agreed. NC will be a bit harder than GA, although not outside the realm of possibility given that we don't know how desperate Trump may get from now until Nov, which may alienate a small sliver of undecideds.
Edited to add: this is just for a laugh - she’s always gone by Nikki
A bit disingenuous considering Nikki is her actual middle name.
He's doing the same thing here right? She's always been known as Nikki, has she not?
Since an early age yes.
Sorry guys, sometimes I try and not let facts get in the way of a little laugh.
Yet they won't share pics of her at a HBCU...
I guess she "turned black" before she joined Howard University.
If she walks out on stage with Kamala, it’s a wrap. Never underestimate the power of Swiftie Nation
I still can't quite figure out if Trump is a strong candidate or not for the republicans, yes, he turns of normal people, but at the same time, he brings out a set of voters who wont vote for anybody else.
Which one outweighs the other?
Which one outweighs the other?
Its the former. He turns out more people than most think he can, while those that he turns off were generally not going to vote for him anyway. That's what makes him so viable. He gets more people to vote for him than many think he can.
Narcissistic sociopath incapable of empathy for anyone, and yet he has millions of people ready to die for him. It's just sad.
Haley was polling quite a bit better than Trump in hypothetical GE match-ups that usually favour the option with more name recognition. There’s nothing to suggest Trump is a particularly strong candidate. After 2016 he’s had an average midterm election in 2018, a bad one in 2022, and lost a presidential election by a significant margin in the popular vote.
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Yeah, but thats hypothetical, would she really turn out the rural white vote to the same extent? Haley probably would have a better showing in the popular vote, but that doesn't neccessarily translate to a better showing in the EC.
Maybe not, it’s not a given. I’m just saying there isn’t much to suggest Trump is a particularly strong candidate, although he’s not a bad one either due to his ability to mobilize a sizeable base. But when you alienate as many voters as he does, any election will always be a struggle.
Haley would have crushed Biden, would be interesting v Harris.
Trump's falling back on his instincts instead of listening to advisers. Vance pick, alienating women and minorities all in the last 2 weeks. Can he win w just angry white men? I'm not sure.
But I'm a lot less scared than if he was being disciplined and moderate.
Trump's falling back on his instincts instead of listening to advisers. Vance pick, alienating women and minorities all in the last 2 weeks. Can he win w just angry white men? I'm not sure.
But I'm a lot less scared than if he was being disciplined and moderate.
She would probably would've beaten Harris given that Haley was far more popular. Her popularity went down once Trump started hammering her during the primaries, but before that, she was as high as one can probably get in today's political climate.
I think thats right, though I feel like she's ruined her credibility by kissing the ring at the RNC. If I'd been her I'd of kept my powder dry and been the always anti Trump moderate voice in the next cycle.
*also posted for humor*
A bit disingenuous considering orange is his actual middle color.
You made a funny!
I feel that they have no plan for Harris. Everything was built off the back of Biden running and now they’re stuck scrambling to put some play together and Trump is just running his mouth because he’s got nothing else.
The further we go with this the more it looks like they’re done. Trump can only energise his base so much and surely some of them are starting to get sick of his bullshit rhetoric. The more unhinged he seems be getting the more confident I am that Kamala is going to win and mostly because he’ll get a turn out similar to 2016 rather than 2020.
Trump has been failing upwards since day one, his 2016 campaign was unhinged too, but the EC got him over the edge, i reckon its a coin toss if it does this time too.
Had to laugh when it broke into the ride of the valkyriesI know the tuba thing isn't supposed to be an argument in favor of the weird stuff, but it is amazing nonetheless
538 has relaunched their polling averages, Harris up by 1,2 points nationally.
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Link, please?
Thank you.
First one of these I've seen with Harris. Fairly promising so far.
Has anyone ever been able to calculate how many voters the "Trump base" brings?
Would that base really not vote Republican without him? They may not vote for Nikki Haley, but how about a Trump light?
They issue the Republicans have, is that he holds a suge a huge megaphone. There is not enough backbone in the party to force him out. The couldnt do it post January 6, so why would they ever do it?
If he loses in 2024, he is coming back in 2028 for another run, so unless he dies, they wont be able to get shut of him.
We don't really know the answer to this because we're in uncharted territory in recent years.
The previous Republican base was built on a triumvirate of three primary blocks of voters - social (evangelicals), fiscal (tax cutters), and military (strong Reaganite foreign policy).
Trump has largely destroyed that construct and created his own cult of personality driven base that is built atop cultural grievance and anything else Trump wants to promote.
When Trump lost in 2020 and attempted his insurrection, there was some degree of blowback in Republican circles, which is how the likes of DeSantis quickly gained momentum before Trump regrouped to take him out.
What will happen if Trump loses this time ? There's a good chance the GOP will somewhat revert to the mean because in the absence of Trumpism and all of the clowns like MJT, Gaetz, Boebert et al., who rode in on his grift, there still is a fairly strong foundation of Reaganite Republicanism that continues to percolate beneath it all. Therefore if Trump leaves, that faction would probably reassert itself through the likes of DeSantis, Haley, Yongkin, Rubio, and a few others.
The right-wing media eco-system is entirely powerful enough to get the Trumpers to vote for someone else, but only if they get going early enough. It's too late this cycle.
The GOP had every chance to shut the door on Trump after Jan 6th, and didn't have the spine. Now it's him or bust.
The GOP had every chance to shut the door on Trump after Jan 6th, and didn't have the spine. Now it's him or bust.