What many people mean is that the country was humming along fine. The economy was fine, there were jobs, etc. People always give credit to the President for things they didn't actually do. It is unfair but it is what it is. This was always one of the pitfalls of Biden becoming president after COVID.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
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What many people mean is that the country was humming along fine. The economy was fine, there were jobs, etc. People always give credit to the President for things they didn't actually do. It is unfair but it is what it is. This was always one of the pitfalls of Biden becoming president after COVID.
There are now 10 million vacant jobs in the U.S. vs 7 million before Covid. Growth and job creation are better than 2019. Inflation is down to acceptable levels.
But, I guess that’s bad.
If Trump wins, one week after he takes office in 2025, 90% of Republicans will say that the economy is doing great.
In the NYTIMES/Siena poll, 51% of respondents rated economic conditions as poor and 23% rated them as only fair. That is 3/4ths of the entire country. Your position is that 3/4ths of the entire country don't understand their own economic situation? Or that the poll is bad because of the number of vacant jobs in the U.S.?
The crosstabs are not available for the most recent version but I can see the ones from July 2023. It says that 61% of Democrats thought conditions were 'only fair' or 'poor.' 81% of minorities without a college education and 77% of minorities with a college education thought conditions were 'only fair' or 'poor.'
Anyway, dems seems to be doing great downballot, if we are trusting the polls.
In my view, there is no way Tester holds on in Montana, if Biden is getting crushed by Trump nationally.
Even Ohio, if Biden is doing as poorly as polls show, it is very unlikely Brown holds on.
2018 was a +8 dem environment, Tester won 3 point then, Brown won by a more comfortable margin, but Ohio has only shifted right since then, and this is, going by the polls, +2 republican environment.
It could be national trends don't matter in these states, if so, fair play, but according to normal trends, if Biden goes down, they also do.
In my view, there is no way Tester holds on in Montana, if Biden is getting crushed by Trump nationally.
Even Ohio, if Biden is doing as poorly as polls show, it is very unlikely Brown holds on.
2018 was a +8 dem environment, Tester won 3 point then, Brown won by a more comfortable margin, but Ohio has only shifted right since then, and this is, going by the polls, +2 republican environment.
It could be national trends don't matter in these states, if so, fair play, but according to normal trends, if Biden goes down, they also do.
don't know the numbers, but dem senate/governor candidates did very well in 2022 even as the house ("national environment") was narrowly gop.
True, but they were all pretty much swing states, Montana on the other hand, is not far of what you call deep red, not to mention, the popular dem governor tried to run in 2020 for senate, and sort of got crushed, yes he did run against an incumbent, but still.
Tester winning, if this is a +2 republican environment, would be sort of defying logic, but I guess it is possible.
1. You mentioned the availability of jobs during the Trump era, and so I brought a number from 2023-24 about the availability of jobs. I agree, though, that it's not the best measure for the health of the economy, but you brought it up, and so I responded to it.
2. Poll: "By the numbers: 63% of Americans rate their current financial situation as being "good," including 19% of us who say it's "very good." " Here is the link. This poll is from January 2024. So, more updated than the poll that you cite from the summer.
3. There is a phenomenon in recent years: "Majority of Americans say the economy's bad, but their own finances are good".
"By the numbers: In the telephone survey of 1,818 adults Aug. 10-14, 71% of Americans described the economy as either not so good or poor. And 51% said it's getting worse. But 60% said their financial situation is good or excellent. " LINK. (From summer 2023)
4. See here (see in particular the second graph) and here too.
There is ample evidence in these surveys that about 2/3 of Americans feel good/very good/excellent about their finances. However, the constant talk about a bad economy make people feel that things are bad in the aggregate. This decoupling is being studied by economists... like myself.
5. I have seen this before: Republicans and the media kept saying in 2016 that the economy was bad ("economic anxiety") but by the time we got to March 2017, the economy was doing great. I mean, it was bad in January 2017... then magic happened. If Trump wins, expect the same in March 2025 vs. January 2025 or November 2024.
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The issue I have is you keep bringing up Republicans. But it is clear in the numbers that this is not simply about Republicans. The NYTIMES/Siena poll I cited from February shows the party ID gap that you talk about, with an insane 95% of Republicans thinking the economy is bad. But it also shows that the overall numbers are bad for all political affiliations: 61% of Dems and 76% of Independents think conditions are 'only fair' or 'poor.' This is clearly not a Republican phenomenon.
You posted a link to an Axios Vibes thing. I am reading through it... it is certainly more positive than the NYTIMES/Siena poll, but is it all positive? It says 37% of Americans describe their personal financial situation as poor. 28% of Democrats think their financial situation is poor. It says 60% of Americans feel "triggered" by trips to the grocery store.
I tried to find the actual report but couldn't, and instead found a link to another Axios Vibes thing titled: "Biden's key voting blocs stressed about money." It says that 49% of Americans feel their household budget brings more stress than it did before the pandemic. 40% of millenials and Gen Z, and 20% of Millenials and boomers, have had to ask family and friends for money to help with bills. 43% of women report having poor finances. 59% of Hispanic respondents say they felt more stressed by their household budget now than before the pandemic, with one in three blaming the Biden administration. This looks bad!
You posted a link to an Axios Vibes thing. I am reading through it... it is certainly more positive than the NYTIMES/Siena poll, but is it all positive? It says 37% of Americans describe their personal financial situation as poor. 28% of Democrats think their financial situation is poor. It says 60% of Americans feel "triggered" by trips to the grocery store.
I tried to find the actual report but couldn't, and instead found a link to another Axios Vibes thing titled: "Biden's key voting blocs stressed about money." It says that 49% of Americans feel their household budget brings more stress than it did before the pandemic. 40% of millenials and Gen Z, and 20% of Millenials and boomers, have had to ask family and friends for money to help with bills. 43% of women report having poor finances. 59% of Hispanic respondents say they felt more stressed by their household budget now than before the pandemic, with one in three blaming the Biden administration. This looks bad!
There will always be people who say that. What was that number in 2019? 2006? This number is never zero.
Fact is, between 60-70 in more than one poll/survey that I brought here think that the financials are good or better. That's a good number to have. In fact, in the second link that I put up, a high fraction of Republicans are satisfied. Look at that one.
EDIT: Here is a survey about 2019 (before Covid): " Sixty-three percent of respondents rated their local economic conditions as “good” or “excellent” in 2019, with the rest rating conditions as “poor” or “only fair.” This was nearly unchanged from 2018. "
EDIT 2: here is the poll that you're referring to: 8% Excellent, 35% Good, 37% Only Fair, 17% poor. The 37% that you quote is incorrect.
https://app.gemoo.com/share/image-a...gin=imageurlgenerator&card=623080789047246848
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Perhaps just me coping over bad polls, but, isn't Trump always gonna score better on most things, since he has a cult following(about 30% of the electorate), while Biden doesn't really?
Biden is too old, but Trump isn't, for one, is basically sane people saying that both are too old, including most dems, while most republicans actually views Trump as Jesus incarnate.
This is just the most obvious example, but isn't almost every issue, scewed to some extent, towards "dear leader" and not the normal politician?
Biden is too old, but Trump isn't, for one, is basically sane people saying that both are too old, including most dems, while most republicans actually views Trump as Jesus incarnate.
This is just the most obvious example, but isn't almost every issue, scewed to some extent, towards "dear leader" and not the normal politician?
Yes.
Mark my words: if he wins, within a month or two of taking office, people will start saying that the economy is great after being bad in 2024 and January 2025. Mark my words.
Of course, just as the unemployment rate went from 30% or something(according to Trump) to below even the statistics they didn't believe in couple of days ago, Sean Spicer even said it was all a joke, and the media just laughed...
I remember that moment very well.
I’m sure a lot of science and math goes on in these jobs and economy related polls, but anecdotally, I don’t think the situation on the ground is good. I know of a couple of people who work on IT side of things and they’re looking for jobs since Jan and have not got as much as a call.
Rents are high, mortgage rates are high, food is expensive. Average Joe needs to work two times as much to sustain himself and his family. What good is economy doing wonders if someone can’t put food on the table by working reasonable hours and wages?
Not to say things will miraculously change if Trump comes to power, but people in general want to take out their frustrations at the time of voting. It’s something similar to Brexit- people riled up against “outsiders “ - without thinking too much like a political scientist or economist or whatever.
Rents are high, mortgage rates are high, food is expensive. Average Joe needs to work two times as much to sustain himself and his family. What good is economy doing wonders if someone can’t put food on the table by working reasonable hours and wages?
Not to say things will miraculously change if Trump comes to power, but people in general want to take out their frustrations at the time of voting. It’s something similar to Brexit- people riled up against “outsiders “ - without thinking too much like a political scientist or economist or whatever.
She should stick around until the convention just to annoy him, at a time when when he's on the hook for nearly half a billion in fees and will be going through one trial after another.
That's pretty much spot on. Even though the economy and stock market are doing well by most metrics, inflation and the cost of living remain a big problem. Therefore nothing Biden does between now and Nov. will change that and he, as the incumbent, will get blamed by voters.
she has to at least stay in past super tuesday. There will be so much pressure to stop it when he wins big on Tuesday. If she folds early, we are straight into the GE and I don't think that's good for Biden.
When Obama was president, inflation was less than 2%, the unemployment rate was low (and falling), gas prices were low, mortgage rates were low, etc. Yet, in 2015-16, we kept hearing that the economy was bad.
Here we go again.
Here we go again.
The economy, for basically everyone, is better now than 4 years ago, but somehow, the american people collectively devoloped amnesia, covid and shutdowns didn't exist, and so, the old Reagan slogan is actually working, despite all evidence to the contrary.
Its like when republicans called the 08 crash the "Obama recession", despite it all happening before his watch, and somehow made people believe in it.
Well yes, 4 years ago we were in lockdown so I'd say its better at the moment. The trouble with today's economy is that the gulf between the haves and have nots is continually widening and a lot of people continue to struggle with the basics - housing, food, student loan debt etc. If you're underwater financially, you're likely to blame the current government as opposed to those who haven't been around for several years. This of course benefits Trump.
And yet 60%+ of people don't agree with this. See my posts above.
People's financials are not worse off. Real wages have gone up, actually in recent years.
People tend to give Republicans the benefit of the doubt, but not democrats. They grade Trump on a curve, and that applies to other GOPers.
By the way, Biden was leading in the polls until October/November, and so it appears that the war in Gaza has played a bigger role than we would think.
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden
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But factually speaking, you agree its all nonsense, right?
Republicans altering history to blame covid on Biden, doesn't make it any more true.
No, Biden wasn't president in 2020, can anyone remind the american people of that, and Trump's awful response to the pandemic?
As far as student loan debt, Biden administration just cancelled a bunch of student loans, and you remember who is responsible for not a whole lot more not being cancelled, the far right hack "judges" at the supreme court, and yeah, young people blamed the supreme court for that, not Biden.
These "judges" needs to be arrested and removed for election interference anyway, if Biden did that, he would gain a bunch more support overnight.
This won't matter to most given that inflation has gone up sharply in recent years. Even with inflation down a bit in recent months under Biden, the rise in the cost of living remains a huge problem. This is why Biden won't be given credit for the economy, because most people are anecdotally not seeing it realized at their level.
That's correct. You can't blame Trump or Biden for the economic volatility related to the pandemic given that it was a once in a lifetime economic shock. What people will blame Biden for is being the incumbent when they are struggling due to pandemic related inflation, which continues to be high today compared to where it was during the Obama/Trump years.
Or maybe, the polls, not unlike 2022, underestimate those who will vote to protect womens right, and democracy, yet again.
We will find out.
I wonder if they'll think the same at the end of next year when their tax bills go up, that's when Trump's tax cuts expire for ordinary people but not for corporations.
Given that the house will almost certainly be Democratic in the next congress it's inlikely that another tax bill will get passed
Thats the thing. People keeps repeating that polls failed as they were projecting a red wave. But it was the media that spun that idea
As far as i know reputable polls were quite on point with a margin of error
Money and weapon/ammunition are not the same. Having more money means nothing right now. It take years to increase the production of weapons and ammunition after decades of downsizing.
As much as I would like Germany taking a more active role, after Trump's threats to not honor article 5, I understand the hesitation within the government.
Germany doesn't have nuclear weapons. Thus it would be madness/suicide to engage against a nuclear power without clear and reliable assurances from the US.
Britain and France are both nuclear powers and Germany's allies. Of course Germany can take a more active role if it wants. As can any other NATO ally.
I don't know about the size of France and England's nuclear arsenal. So far it's always been the nuclear umbrella of the US which protected us.
England and France both know they will be totally annihilated, if they respond a Russian attack on Germany with nuclear weapons. Thus, I would have my doubts, if they really responded.
The only secure option is to get your own nukes.
Speaking as someone who shares a border with Putin, I'd rather have the safety of the US (sans Trump) in NATO...
The US would also be annihilated if it attacked Russia with nuclear weapons, that's literally the point of MAD.
I know the Trident tests keep causing lolz but that system is fecking terrifying if it actually worked. I think one sub could fire 144 nuclear warheads if I remember rightly, and unless you catch them as they're launching you've feck all chance of stopping them.
But Russia too...
Nuclear weapons only work as deterrence and this very well for the last 80 years
The idiot Trump is doing his best undermine the concept.
France has 290 nukes, UK 225 and that's only the official numbers.
That's enough to wipe Russia out as a country and then some more. Stop acting as if Europe would be totally defenseless if Trump was elected. Or this insane idea that Russia would launch a nuclear attack on Germany. Nuclear deterrence works with or without Trump.
Republicans were so incensed by a black man winning the POTUS they began assigning blame to him or claiming he was this or that like...
-Twenty-nine percent of them said that he was responsible for the poor response to Hurricane Katrina -- in 2005.
-Twenty-two percent of Mitt Romney voters said Obama was the Antichrist.
-30 percent of Republicans and 34 percent of conservative Republicans thought Obama was Muslim
https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/2013/08/29/blame-obama-syndrome/29195759007/
But Trump has no weaknesses?
Obama basically broke the Republican party up.
She got 1,279 votes in probably the most blue area in the country
I subscribe to the idea that the results in general have shown weaknesses for Trump, but the D.C. results hardly matter. Wake me up when she wins an actual state.