2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins

[Revan]

Some of them would be better than Biden, agreed, but it's not without risk, Harris could win the primaries, she has a worse chance, just an example.

Harris would not have won the primaries if there were legitimate primaries. She didn’t do very well last time around and back then she was actually popular (primarily because of Kavanaugh’s hearings).

If you had a legitimate primary with a year of campaigning in which dozen of candidates would try to get elected, it is almost surely that someone better than Biden/Harris would have emerged. I mean, you can randomly pick from Senate/House/Governers and in 10/10 cases you will find someone better than Biden. Cause the bar is essentially ‘being able to speak’.

 

[Jev]

It's a bit moot because unless he has a severe health episode it's gonna be Biden but yeah, it's not looking overly promising is it?

If he finds himself consistently behind by four or five points in the polls come summer, then surely he must start having second thoughts. If he and the Dems really believe the stakes are as high as they say this election, they can’t look themselves in the mirror while walking towards a near-certain defeat.

 

[Morty_]

Harris would not have won the primaries if there were legitimate primaries. She didn’t do very well last time around and back then she was actually popular (primarily because of Kavanaugh’s hearings).

If you had a legitimate primary with a year of campaigning in which dozen of candidates would try to get elected, it is almost surely that someone better than Biden/Harris would have emerged. I mean, you can randomly pick from Senate/House/Governers and in 10/10 cases you will find someone better than Biden. Cause the bar is essentially ‘being able to speak’.

Name recognition matters, Harris has that now, who is to say many won't just default to the VP?

 

[TwoSheds]

I understand all you're saying, but I just think we're looking at biden's actions differently. You seem to see it as biden being in a difficult situation where he doesn't have the power to stop the genocide even if he wanted. If he was trying to stop it but for some reason (bad actors on both sides) things were still going to shit, I would probably be able to overlook it and vote for him just to stop trump. But I don't see it that way, I see it as him being ok with what's happening, so for moral reasons I couldn't vote for that. Maybe I'm wrong and biden is having sleepless night about his decisions, but there's nothing in his words or actions that lead me to think that.

So this specific vote for biden would be for me more of a moral choice than a political one. Some people don't differentiate and that's ok, I just don't see politics as being separate from morality and I require a minimum of moral standards before giving someone my vote. In this election, neither candidate meets my personal minimum standard.

My main argument in this whole discussion, however, is that people who refuse to vote for biden are being accused of being responsible for things like women dying or immigrants being treated like shit (let's ignore for a minute those things are also actually happening under biden's leadership) by not voting for biden. Those same people seem reluctant to, following the same logic, admitting they would be ok with their vote supporting genocide, even if they consider biden's other good actions trump that evil action.

It's the double standards more than anything that annoy me a bit.

You can't vote in this election though right? So do you really know what you would do if you could?

Personally I vote Green in almost every UK election but in the States I'm pretty sure I would vote for Biden as I don't think there is a single good presidential candidate (notably different from UK elections where you don't vote for a Prime Minister) and I think Biden is easily the best of a bad bunch and it's not even close (of the ones I'm aware of). Not only that, the likely alternative is genuinely as bad as it could get and is aiming to destroy the entire political system, but not in a good way.

Not voting is not a good, responsible, or sensible option. People died for your right to vote, and it's your main chance to make a point and/or do your civic duty.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

If he finds himself consistently behind by four or five points in the polls come summer, then surely he must start having second thoughts. If he and the Dems really believe the stakes are as high as they say this election, they can’t look themselves in the mirror while walking towards a near-certain defeat.

I agree but Dem strategists have already demonstrated themselves risk averse. As is usual (and it is usual) they've gone all in on the incumbency advantage and have foregone competitive primaries in order to insulate the president from having to perform. In doing that they've already largely abandoned the primary mechanism by which you establish a new election candidate's credentials. Most of the damage is already done. By the time the convention comes round it's incredibly late in the cycle for risk averse people to wheel out a fresh face. Even if they did it would be relatively simple to paint that candidate as an unelected stand-in coronated by a demonstrably incompetent Dem leadership. That carries its own electoral baggage.

 

[Jev]

I agree but Dem strategists have already demonstrated themselves risk averse. As is usual (and it is usual) they've gone all in on the incumbency advantage and have foregone competitive primaries in order to insulate the president from having to perform. In doing that they've already largely abandoned the primary mechanism by which you establish a new election candidate's credentials. Most of the damage is already done. By the time the convention comes round it's incredibly late in the cycle for risk averse people to wheel out a fresh face. Even if they did it would be relatively simple to paint that candidate as an unelected stand-in coronated by a demonstrably incompetent Dem leadership.

You are absolutely right. My point was that come summer, the biggest risk might be sticking with Biden. But even if that scenario comes around, I fear it will simply be too uncomfortable a conversation for anyone to open, therefore no-one will dare to do anything and will just accept the inevitable.

 

[Beachryan]

Personally I think there's still plenty of time to rally the dems around another candidate. This election is currently about Trump, the entire Biden strategy is to keep it that way and remove the 'Biden' bit.

But there's no reason another dem couldn't do the same thing, plus avoid the Biden baggage. For the record, Biden was historically unpopular before October 7th, so you can't pin it on that. I think it's impossible for a democrat to succeed in today's media environment. Half the country get their information from sources that exist solely to oust the democrat, the other half from sources that in an effort to be 'neutral' treat the dems almost as badly.

I think almost anyone would win the anti-Trump vote, and could also spend the next 8 montsh campaigning as to their own strengths. Every morning I turn on the news and pray that Joe or Jill has realised that he's the problem, but nothing coming out roses so far.

 

[B. Munich]

Again, they don't actually want that, do they? They just can't vote for someone supporting genocide.

But they can vote for somebody who encourages Putin to attack allies and do whatever hell he wants because they haven't paid enough for NATO???

 

[Godfather]

Then the left or liberals are dumber than I thought. If Trump wins, it will be even worse for the Palestinians.
Thus it would be very shortsighted not to vote as ever no vote is a vote for Trump and MAGA.

I read that a lot. But how on earth can it get even worse than it is right now. Biden is handling this in a shambolic way and to be honest I can sympathize with people not wanting to vote that disaster of a president.

 

[Godfather]

Again, they don't actually want that, do they? They just can't vote for someone supporting genocide.

This. And I respect that. Show the Democrats they can't just do as they please and trust in people voting them just to prevent someone else.

 

[Godfather]

Not voting is not a good, responsible, or sensible option. People died for your right to vote, and it's your main chance to make a point and/or do your civic duty.

If no party even remotely represents what you stand for it's very valid to not vote.

 

[HTG]

In a year or so the Dems will tell everyone that it’s an important tradition for the incumbent to go for a second term and that they couldn’t have done anything differently, while Trump prohibits contraception or some shit like that.

Same shit they did with RBG.

 

[Morty_]

Would be interesting if she went scorched earth, and a big portion of her supporters stays home, but i think not, i have no confidence in her not endorsing Trump at the end of the day.

 

[TwoSheds]

If no party even remotely represents what you stand for it's very valid to not vote.

You should still go and vote and write that on the ballot.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

I care about Israel/Gaza as an issue but this is the election thread. I am not talking about issues here I am talking about elections and campaigns, and Israel/Gaza is really illustrative of the thought process of many liberal supporters of Biden.

Democratic politicians are very unified around Israel. Liberal and Democratic Party voters, on the other hand, are not unified around Israel, with some pre-war polls showing larger net support for Palestinians. What Joe Biden should have done is handle the war like the divisive issue it is. He hasn't. As a result, the large number of people within his party who disagree with his stance, will be displeased about it. This may cause some of them to refuse to vote for him (yet to be seen). This is how politics work. The problem here are not the voters. They are acting as they should: vote based on the issues. Biden is the one who is taking a stance on the issue that some voters disagree. He is primarily responsible for losing those votes.

The issue I have with some people here is they seem to think that Biden's actions don't count once he takes them. As if causality breaks once he takes an action, and we are all born in a new world where his action is a fact of life akin to the sun rising every morning. But it does not work that way.

This is not limited to Israel/Gaza. Overwhelming, astounding majorities of voters think Biden is too old to serve another term. Biden is too old to serve another term. But Biden refused to quit, and there are now people here annoyed at voters for considering this an issue.

All kinds of normative/descriptive shuffles going on.

 

[Jotun]

I care about Israel/Gaza as an issue but this is the election thread. I am not talking about issues here I am talking about elections and campaigns, and Israel/Gaza is really illustrative of the thought process of many liberal supporters of Biden.

Democratic politicians are very unified around Israel. Liberal and Democratic Party voters, on the other hand, are not unified around Israel, with some pre-war polls showing larger net support for Palestinians. What Joe Biden should have done is handle the war like the divisive issue it is. He hasn't. As a result, the large number of people within his party who disagree with his stance, will be displeased about it. This may cause some of them to refuse to vote for him (yet to be seen). This is how politics work. The problem here are not the voters. They are acting as they should: vote based on the issues. Biden is the one who is taking a stance on the issue that some voters disagree. He is primarily responsible for losing those votes.

The issue I have with some people here is they seem to think that Biden's actions don't count once he takes them. As if causality breaks once he takes an action, and we are all born in a new world where his action is a fact of life akin to the sun rising every morning. But it does not work that way.

This is not limited to Israel/Gaza. Overwhelming, astounding majorities of voters think Biden is too old to serve another term. Biden is too old to serve another term. But Biden refused to quit, and there are now people here annoyed at voters for considering this an issue.

All kinds of normative/descriptive shuffles going on.

There were also multiple reports that he is going to be only one term president. That he doesn't want a second term and will let someone younger to take charge, but now he refuses to quit. No wonder that some voters will feel cheated. In the end the democrats made their bed (by pushing Hillary and Biden) and well... here it is, another Trump term possible.

If you consistently push bad candidates, how do you expect the voters to vote for you.

 

[Morty_]

There were also multiple reports that he is going to be only one term president. That he doesn't want a second term and will let someone younger to take charge, but now he refuses to quit. No wonder that some voters will feel cheated. In the end the democrats made their bed (by pushing Hillary and Biden) and well... here it is, another Trump term possible.

If you consistently push bad candidates, how do you expect the voters to vote for you.

What about the primary voters? Nobody forced them to go with Biden or Hillary before, particulary 2020 there were younger candidates on the field, but they went with the "safe" option in Biden.

DNC isn't nearly as powerful or influental as some would have it, in the end, those voting in the primaries decides.

 

[Jotun]

What about the primary voters? Nobody forced them to go with Biden or Hillary before, particulary 2020 there were younger candidates on the field, but they went with the "safe" option in Biden.

DNC isn't nearly as powerful or influental as some would have it, in the end, those voting in the primaries decides.

You mean in 2016 when Hillary had that superdelegates advantage. Or in 2020 when all those younger candidates dropped out on same day to endorse Biden. That's without all the mainstream media turning and campaigning against Bernie (pro Hillary/Biden)

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

Also, the dems have done really well in the past 6 years in most elections, so someone is getting it right.

The general consensus is that Democrats' performance in 2022 was heavily influenced by Roe v Wade being struck down.

But Roe v Wade being struck down was a massive political defeat. They lost ground in the Supreme Court and subsequently lost Roe v Wade due to their many electoral feckups. Overperforming in an election that you still lost (Democrats lost the House) is not conmesurate to this political defeat.

 

[Morty_]

You mean in 2016 when Hillary had that superdelegates advantage. Or in 2020 when all those younger candidates dropped out on same day to endorse Biden. That's without all the mainstream media turning and campaigning against Bernie (pro Hillary/Biden)

Superdelegates didn't matter, Hillary was simply prefered by the primary voters over Bernie, she didn't win because of them.

2020 was between two old men, none of the others gained any traction, which is sad, would have stayed in the race longer if they did.

 

[Morty_]

The general consensus is that Democrats' performance in 2022 was heavily influenced by Roe v Wade being struck down.

But Roe v Wade being struck down was a massive political defeat. They lost ground in the Supreme Court and subsequently lost Roe v Wade due to their many electoral feckups. Overperforming in an election that you still lost (Democrats lost the House) is not conmesurate to this political defeat.

Yeah, and nothing since has shown that democrats/independents have forgotten about Roe v Wade being overturned, or republicans being fascists hack.
Republicans underperform elections to this day, and the polls aren't able to capture that.

Trump can win, i agree on that, but there is a difference saying he can win, and believeing polls saying he leads with young voters and latinos, we are looking at one of the biggest shifts in demographic history if that is the case.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[B. Munich]

I read that a lot. But how on earth can it get even worse than it is right now. Biden is handling this in a shambolic way and to be honest I can sympathize with people not wanting to vote that disaster of a president.

How it can get worse? There are more conflicts and threats to democracy and the world.
If Trump stops supporting Ukraine, there will be 2 genocides. Putin will annihilate the Ukraine and it's culture.
Trump might also escalate the conflict with Iran. He got zero foreign policy experience. Just look how his famed deal making qualities turned out in Afghanistan. 20 years of efforts to get rid of the Taliban destroyed in a few months.

 

[Godfather]

You should still go and vote and write that on the ballot.

Well fair enough

 

[maniak]

You can't vote in this election though right? So do you really know what you would do if you could?

Personally I vote Green in almost every UK election but in the States I'm pretty sure I would vote for Biden as I don't think there is a single good presidential candidate (notably different from UK elections where you don't vote for a Prime Minister) and I think Biden is easily the best of a bad bunch and it's not even close (of the ones I'm aware of). Not only that, the likely alternative is genuinely as bad as it could get and is aiming to destroy the entire political system, but not in a good way.

Not voting is not a good, responsible, or sensible option. People died for your right to vote, and it's your main chance to make a point and/or do your civic duty.

You're right, I would make my point by leaving my ballot blank, so I would show "my party" they don't own my vote, if they feck up, they lose it.

 

[maniak]

But they can vote for somebody who encourages Putin to attack allies and do whatever hell he wants because they haven't paid enough for NATO???

That seems to be your basic misunderstanding in all of this. Not voting for biden doesn't mean voting for trump.

 

[Raoul]

You should still go and vote and write that on the ballot.

Its a bit less motivational to vote in states where you know one candidate will win overwhelmingly (such as where i am now). At that point, it should come as no surprise if a swath of people avoid voting altogether.

 

[B. Munich]

That seems to be your basic misunderstanding in all of this. Not voting for biden doesn't mean voting for trump.

Not directly but indirectly.

If there are 31 votes and Biden got 16 and Trump 15, Biden wins. If 2 persons who voted for Biden decide not to vote, then Trump wins with 15 votes as Biden only got 14.

It's pretty simple, isn't it?

 

[Revan]

Superdelegates didn't matter, Hillary was simply prefered by the primary voters over Bernie, she didn't win because of them.

2020 was between two old men, none of the others gained any traction, which is sad, would have stayed in the race longer if they did.

Superdelegates obviously mattered, it is why they changed the rules after that. Obviously, at the end of the day, Hillary had more voted electors than Bernie, thus you can say that she would have won without superdelegates but that is lazy. Perception matters, momentum matters, and superdelegates gave Hillary the momentum she needed. For example, Bernie would win a state, but Hillary would win more electors cause all superdelegates would go for her. Or Hillary would win marginally a state but get 2-1 ratio of delegates cause of superdelegates. Which made any momentum of Bernie simply be impossible, making the perception that whatever he does, Hillary would win more. Which kinda was the true, cause he needed, if I remember correctly, to win 60-65% of delegates for him to win the election considering that 95%+ of superdelegates were going for Hillary. It was absurd.

In 2020, it was not as blatant, but still Bernie was penalized by the Democrat party. When he got the momentum going and started winning states, and looking like he is going to get the nomination, all other important candidates except Warren dropped and endorsed Biden, and thus Biden started winning (Warren on the other hand pointlessly stayed longer and even when she dropped she didn’t endorse Bernie with whom they were very much aligned in political issues). For what is worth, in 2020 I think it was a good thing that Biden won, cause I think Bernie would have lost against Trump.

 

[Pintu]

Not directly but indirectly.

If there are 31 votes and Biden got 16 and Trump 15, Biden wins. If 2 persons who voted for Biden decide not to vote, then Trump wins with 15 votes as Biden only got 14.

It's pretty simple, isn't it?

Not voting for Biden means telling the Democrats: “You are actively aiding Israel commit to Genocide, and therefore we will not vote for you; next time you need our votes you might listen to us”

 

[B. Munich]

Its a bit less motivational to vote in states where you know one candidate will win overwhelmingly (such as where i am now). At that point, it should come as no surprise if a swath of people avoid voting altogether.

That's because the electoral system is flawed and not really democratic.
Ideally the popular vote should decide.

If you want to keep the electoral system, then at least the electors should be distributed according to the election results.
If one candidate wins a state with a free thousand votes, it's just undemocratic that he takes all electors and the votes for his opponent are all worthless.
This winner takes it all approach might be exciting but is everything than democratic.

 

[Hamnat]

A lot of this discussion as it were is round and round same old same old. As someone that lives in America, has family here. As much "skin in the game" as you can get as it were. When I go to work and see these GOP supporters every day. When I see how they act, how seemingly "educated" what you would otherwise call "rational" people go down demented conspiracy trails. Listen to Fox News and right wing radio all day. They have these podcasts going in between meetings. At lunch they don't fail to invite me the black coworker out to lunch or whatever. I have known some of these people for over 10 years working in the Oil and Gas industry. I can safely say that not ALL of them are the raging racists, homophobes etc you see on these clips of MAGA people.

However, me knowing that and knowing that they still vote for people who ARE racist, who ARE homophobic. People who have promised to and have shown that they absolutely will try to limit my voting power. My families voting power. The people they voted for pushed the base of crazies to the point of January 6th. What lessons do these people take from that? Not much. They stand by still. They justify probably voting for Trump again. They justify voting for Ted Cruz, Jon Cornyn who just threw his hat in the ring to succeed Mitch. Every day I hear the microaggressions, the anger over "woke". Ranting about having to take corporate ethics training on cultural diversity, treating people with respect. And that is all it is really. All these bills you see in state houses ranting about diversity and training how it needs to stop. We need to go back to the good old days of not caring who you offend or has to listen to ravings at work.

An example my boss while having a basic conversation about a popular tv show. Proceeds to say right in front of his employee that the gay content in this episode of the show "brings out the homophobe in you". As a double minority, gay and black in the south that is not outrageous a thing for me to hear. Another old boss actually work a Make America Great hat to start a Teams meeting during Covid. Now some people are like oh well get over it it's all jokes. Of course, some have the privilege to just brush all that off right? I have learned that it is easier to not put myself in the position in these cases to be subject to these diatribes to these ravings outside the office. Invites to hunting trips, or after-hours functions. Its much easier for me to politely turn these down where I know they will put me in a position where I have to hear more of this crap.

What is the point of this post? There is very valid high level, global implication discussions here right. War, genocide, who's fault is it, protest votes. Are you a genocide supporter if you do this. Are you a Trump supporter if you don't vote?

Bringing the conversation down to a very small very personal level. I absolutely feel for the pain and suffering of everyone around the world in every conflict every war. I know that America will get the blame and credit by some faction or other no matter what.

In terms of these elections. The GOP are getting worse and worse. From an on the ground perspective, they are feeding on the ignorance at large of their base. They are trying to from the school boards up install control levers to make the population MORE ignorant. Have less access to education, to control what is taught. Just this week Georgia legislature banned libraries from a connection with the American Library Association. Even the recent IVF catastrophe in Alabama. They struggle with their messaging on it because it doesnt make sense.

In 2016 they used to say trump was a loudmouth, but he would get more "presidential". They blamed it on his Twitter habits. "If he would just get off twitter". The GOP coddled him, they didn't stand up to him. He completely took over all aspects of their base, their fundraising. The same officials who coddled him were running for their lives on Jan 6th. A handful even after all that. Still tried to disqualify thousands of votes from basically black and brown people in Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin etc. Conspiracies, targeting poor minority election workers destroying their lives with no regard.
And now there is a chance again these people with all of that. Can get another chance. With no handrails this time. They know what went wrong. they know who in power, and in these agencies, in military positions etc. stopped the worse impulses the last time. They will not stop until they lose consistently. Until they are forced to shove that racist, ignorant MAGA base into the lower rungs of society.

Biden vs Trump. It is not hyperbole to someone with skin in the game who sees these supporters every day. Who knows full well what they are willing to overlook or accept. I just voted for Biden in the primary here, will vote for him in the general. Does that make me a supporter of genocide as some would like to toss out? I say it makes me someone who has to live here. Who has to live with the people who would push people like Trump, Cruz, MTG, all these MAGA a holes we see every day into the positions they are in. The GOP is showing us every day. that they have no purpose but personal enrichment and taking away the rights of women and minorities. Not hyperbole again, all we have to do is look at the actual bills they have produced. The actual party platform. Their own members once they are stumping for their books, and trying to rehab their image then come out with the receipts that many of them are only looking for their fame on the right win media circuit. They have no intention of producing actual bills to help anyone.

Of course people can abstain from voting. Stick their heads in the sand. And the reality is that any policy that those people want to happen that they think should be happening can actually get farther and farther away.

 

[Raoul]

Not voting for Biden means telling the Democrats: “You are actively aiding Israel commit to Genocide, and therefore we will not vote for you; next time you need our votes you might listen to us”

It can equally be viewed as "You are actively aiding Israel commit Genocide, and therefore we are ok with taking our chances with Donald Trump's Israel policy".

Moreover, the anti-Israel crowd aren't much of a factor in the Dem party or among independents compared to the pro-economy, anti-inflation, border control crowd.

 

[Raoul]

That's because the electoral system is flawed and not really democratic.
Ideally the popular vote should decide.

If you want to keep the electoral system, then at least the electors should be distributed according to the election results.
If one candidate wins a state with a free thousand votes, it's just undemocratic that he takes all electors and the votes for his opponent are all worthless.
This winner takes it all approach might be exciting but is everything than democratic.

That's true. The electoral college often works against democratic principles and presidential elections usually end up being decided in about 5-7 contested states. The rest are usually already decided well before election day.

 

[B. Munich]

Not voting for Biden means telling the Democrats: “You are actively aiding Israel commit to Genocide, and therefore we will not vote for you; next time you need our votes you might listen to us”

Sorry but we bad the situation in Gaza is, there are much bigger problems and threats in this world.
Seems some here only care about one issue, that's Gaza.

E.g. In the Ukraine there are 10 times more people dying.

 

[Pintu]

It can equally be viewed as "You are actively aiding Israel commit Genocide, and therefore we are ok with taking our chances with Donald Trump's Israel policy".

Moreover, the anti-Israel crowd aren't much of a factor in the Dem party or among independents compared to the pro-economy, anti-inflation, border control crowd.

it is not the ”anti-Israel crowd”, it is the anti-genocide crowd…

With time passing we will see the scope of the monstrosity of what Ben Gvir and Netanyahu are doing and will do in the coming months after having told us many times they will do it.. it is wishful thinking to believe this will not influence the Democratic party in the future. The Democratic party has been preaching about human rights and minority rights. Most of their voters do care about justice. Many among the youth and the POC will have hard time forgiving Biden and his administration making America complicit in Genocide.

 

[Raoul]

it is not the ”anti-Israel crowd”, it is the anti-genocide crowd…

With time passing we will see the scope of the monstrosity of what Ben Gvir and Netanyahu are doing and will do in the coming months after having told us many times they will do it.. it is wishful thinking to believe this will not influence the Democratic party in the future. The Democratic party has been preaching about human rights and minority rights. Most of their voters do care about justice. The youth and the POC will have hard time forgiving Biden and
his administration making America complicit in Genocide.

Its generally a non-issue in the US, which is born out in the polling about what American voters care about. (Spoiler: Its not foreign policy).

 

[maniak]

Not directly but indirectly.

If there are 31 votes and Biden got 16 and Trump 15, Biden wins. If 2 persons who voted for Biden decide not to vote, then Trump wins with 15 votes as Biden only got 14.

It's pretty simple, isn't it?

I think it's very simply but not in that way. If trump wins and encourages putin the blame will rest on the people who vote for trump. If someone tells biden "I can't vote for you if you support genocide" and biden proceeds to support genocide, the blame will rest on biden, not the voter.

 

[maniak]

Its generally a non-issue in the US, which is born out in the polling about what American voters care about. (Spoiler: Its not foreign policy).

The issue is probably more with your framing, not wanting a genocide doesn't mean one is anti-israel.

 

[maniak]

Sorry but we bad the situation in Gaza is, there are much bigger problems and threats in this world.
Seems some here only care about one issue, that's Gaza.

E.g. In the Ukraine there are 10 times more people dying.

The issue is not gaza's genocide per se, is biden supporting it. Is biden supporting russia in killing ukranians? No, so obviously people won't mention it.