2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

I know americans believe in a lot of silly things, such as still believing in the myth that the GOP is better for the economy, but actually believing Trump is well fit to handle a national disaster is by far the silliest thing i have seen so far.

Where do they dig up these people who reply to their polls?
 
Morty_ said:
I know americans believe in a lot of silly things, such as still believing in the myth that the GOP is better for the economy, but actually believing Trump is well fit to handle a national disaster is by far the silliest thing i have seen so far.

Where do they dig up these people who reply to their polls?
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Yet it’s true. Quinnipiac is an extremely respected pollster with a slight Democrat bias.

It is more than silly, it’s outright laughable, along with being a tad terrifying.
 
calodo2003 said:
Yet it’s true. Quinnipiac is an extremely respected pollster with a slight Democrat bias.

It is more than silly, it’s outright laughable, along with being a tad terrifying.
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Has to be an outlier, a national crisis is about the last thing you could trust Trump with, its like if a poll was released that a majority of americans trust him to handle classified doccuments, its that level of stupid.
 
Morty_ said:
Has to be an outlier, a national crisis is about the last thing you could trust Trump with, its like if a poll was released that a majority of americans trust him to handle classified doccuments, its that level of stupid.
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Not Quinnipiac...


Yet...
 
The disparity between Americans' opinions and the economic data doesn't make sense.
 
Adisa said:
The disparity between Americans' opinions and the economic data doesn't make sense.
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It absolutely does when you look at it through the prism of how people consume media and what that media is reporting.

I sat on a plane on Monday next to an older (65-70) couple. The husband was watching Fox News and would loudly (he had headphones on) repeat each talking point to his wife. When we landed he kept it up the entire time we taxied and his wife had to force him to get out of his seat to leave the plane as he wanted to keep watching Hannity. The whole time is was "liberals this" and "Biden did this" and so on and so on. Nothing he repeated had any relation to reality, but he was passionate and angry the entire time. Even for those who aren't Fox News watchers I think the media sees (financial) value in keeping negative narratives going as negative news drives viewership. And for those who do not consume news media, I do think that people are feeling a lingering financial hit from the past few years. Gas prices are still high and food prices are coming down slow enough that it is hard to recognize a change. It is kind of the "frog in boiling water" scenario.
 
WI_Red said:
It absolutely does when you look at it through the prism of how people consume media and what that media is reporting.

I sat on a plane on Monday next to an older (65-70) couple. The husband was watching Fox News and would loudly (he had headphones on) repeat each talking point to his wife. When we landed he kept it up the entire time we taxied and his wife had to force him to get out of his seat to leave the plane as he wanted to keep watching Hannity. The whole time is was "liberals this" and "Biden did this" and so on and so on. Nothing he repeated had any relation to reality, but he was passionate and angry the entire time. Even for those who aren't Fox News watchers I think the media sees (financial) value in keeping negative narratives going as negative news drives viewership. And for those who do not consume news media, I do think that people are feeling a lingering financial hit from the past few years. Gas prices are still high and food prices are coming down slow enough that it is hard to recognize a change. It is kind of the "frog in boiling water" scenario.
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There's a reason the average Fox viewer is 68. Older people are more easily led by misinformation, which I can anecdotally attest to by way of my own family members and their viewing habits (4 consecutive hours of Fox each night).
 
Adisa said:
The disparity between Americans' opinions and the economic data doesn't make sense.
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This is what happens when a party brings into question the authenticity of every source of data. These voters don't have the critical thinking skills to realise that all governmental data is not being completely fixed by the party in power, as is suggested, and so facts become opinions/fake, and the republicans can just write off any piece of information that goes against the partisan claims they're making on a subject. I'm sure there also is some massaging of the facts happening sometimes as well, which only gives further credence to claims that it's all bullshit.
 
Raoul said:
There's a reason the average Fox viewer is 68. Older people are more easily led by misinformation, which I can anecdotally attest to by way of my own family members and their viewing habits (4 consecutive hours of Fox each night).
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I've also found Yahoo news to flying under the radar. They have a undergone a pretty significant swing to the right from what I've seen. Both my in laws who are hardcore Fox believers get a lot of their news on their phones from there as well.

And also: the Daily Caller has someone found a way to position itself as a regular source of news that doesn't seem to be talked about enough either. They ve done an interesting job - like a Yahoo - by inserting relatively innocent and non partisan news in their array to latch onto people. Especially in the case of the latter, that is concerning.
 
If they want reliable poll results they should probably stop asking Winnebagos about their opinions.
 
The polls are genuinely worrying. It is not one or two, but most polls are favoring GOP/Trump.

And if Manchin runs as third-party (that Romney is trying to convince him not to do after initially toying with the idea himself), then it is gonna be a landslide crazy-GOP win.
 
Revan said:
The polls are genuinely worrying. It is not one or two, but most polls are favoring GOP/Trump.

And if Manchin runs as third-party (that Romney is trying to convince him not to do after initially toying with the idea himself), then it is gonna be a landslide crazy-GOP win.
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I don't know, dems keep overperforming in about every special election since dobbs, they overperformed the polls in the midterms, i think they will do so again in 2024.

No, GOP won't win a landslide even with third parties in the picture(and they dont take away only from dems btw), for that they are too disliked, its possible that they win the election, but that would be due to the electoral system favoring them, as it has for the last 20-30 years.
 
Pray Trump loses the primary and there is some non senile Moderate Democrat who can take on Biden"s batten.
 
MrMarcello said:
Have never heard of her, who is she?
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She has run for President before as a Dem and is very popular among the new agey, holistic healing, spiritual but not religious segment of the left, which isn't an exactly large demographic but she has a dedicated following, albeit very small.
 
Morty_ said:
I don't know, dems keep overperforming in about every special election since dobbs, they overperformed the polls in the midterms, i think they will do so again in 2024.

No, GOP won't win a landslide even with third parties in the picture(and they dont take away only from dems btw), for that they are too disliked, its possible that they win the election, but that would be due to the electoral system favoring them, as it has for the last 20-30 years.
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I think that Manchin as a third party candidate is polling at 20%, and in that configuration, Trump apparently easily wins. It is why Romney is trying to talk Manchin out of this.

Have Dems over-performed the polls except the last one? At the contrary, I think that GOP did better in elections than in polling (especially in 2016 and in Senate 2018).
 
Revan said:
I think that Manchin as a third party candidate is polling at 20%, and in that configuration, Trump apparently easily wins. It is why Romney is trying to talk Manchin out of this.

Have Dems over-performed the polls except the last one? At the contrary, I think that GOP did better in elections than in polling (especially in 2016 and in Senate 2018).
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We are in a completely new paradigm now due to Dobbs. 2016 & 2018 results don't hold any purchase when polling this completely new political landscape.
 
calodo2003 said:
We are in a completely new paradigm now due to Dobbs. 2016 & 2018 results don't hold any purchase when polling this completely new political landscape.
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I think that is more wishful thinking than anything else. Most people are not single-issue voters.
 
calodo2003 said:
No white text?

You cannot be serious here.
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No white text. I do not think that most people are single-issue voters and if polls favor the GOP, then they will likely win (remember that they have paths to win even while losing the popular vote, which is very unlikely to happen for Dems).

I also think that polls usually tended to be slightly Democratic leaning. The last one turned out to be Republican leaning, but it is early to say that this is the new trend.
 
Revan said:
No white text. I do not think that most people are single-issue voters and if polls favor the GOP, then they will likely win (remember that they have paths to win even while losing the popular vote, which is very unlikely to happen for Dems).

I also think that polls usually tended to be slightly Democratic leaning. The last one turned out to be Republican leaning, but it is early to say that this is the new trend.
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You seem to be completely dismissive or ignorant of the realities on the ground & the special elections. This is the first time a constitutional right was taken away from citizens which affected the entire population regardless their political persuasion. That allows for a one issue voter to be born. It wasn’t just a one cycle impact, it will be felt in perpetuity due to how poorly it has been / will be handled by Republicans. That’s why they want to rename their ‘pro-choice’ stance to be ‘pro-baby.’ They know they are screwed because on this & are scrambling to stem the tide, yet they cannot help themselves from passing even more draconian anti-choice bills at the state level.

As I said earlier, the old polling prism does not apply to modern day, post-Dobbs politics. Any poll that does not have an abortion question in it really isn’t capturing the true lean of a voter.
 
calodo2003 said:
You seem to be completely dismissive or ignorant of the realities on the ground & the special elections. This is the first time a constitutional right was taken away from citizens which affected the entire population. That allows for a one issue voter to be born. It wasn’t just a one cycle impact, it will be felt in perpetuity due to how poorly it has been / will be handled by Republicans. That’s why they want to rename their ‘pro-choice’ stance to be ‘pro-baby.’ They know they are screwed because on this & are scrambling to stem the tide, yet they cannot help themselves from passing even more draconian anti-choice bills at the state level.

As I said earlier, the old polling prism does not apply to modern day, post-Dobbs politics. Any poll that does not have an abortion question in it really isn’t capturing the true lean of a voter.
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Thanks for the name-calling mate.

Btw, have you already forgot that GOP actually won the election despite that it happened in the post-Dobbs politics? They just didn’t win it as much as Polls expected (won around 220 instead of 230-240 expected seats).

Again, if you get out of your echo-chamber, most people are not single-issue voters. Most people are not that much in the politics anyway, roughly one third of them do not vote at all.
 
Revan said:
I think that Manchin as a third party candidate is polling at 20%, and in that configuration, Trump apparently easily wins. It is why Romney is trying to talk Manchin out of this.

Have Dems over-performed the polls except the last one? At the contrary, I think that GOP did better in elections than in polling (especially in 2016 and in Senate 2018).
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There's zero chance Manchin gets 20% of the nationwide vote as a third-party candidate. That would be more than Perot in 1992.

Nationwide, there are no Democrats or Republicans thinking hey you know what we need? A third party Joe Manchin.
 
Revan said:
Thanks for the name-calling mate.

Btw, have you already forgot that GOP actually won the election despite that it happened in the post-Dobbs politics? They just didn’t win it as much as Polls expected (won around 220 instead of 230-240 expected seats).

Again, if you get out of your echo-chamber, most people are not single-issue voters. Most people are not that much in the politics anyway, roughly one third of them do not vote at all.
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Apologies, I should have worded the post as ‘ignorant,’ I won’t make the same mistake twice.

Yet another baffling ignorant post here. :lol:

Imagine thinking abortion rights are simply ‘politics.’ Name one issue on the ballot box that affects every single citizen of voting age. Name one constitutional right that has been taking away that affects the same.

Your talking points are laughable as well. To not realize how unanticipated & impactful the midterm results were for the House is to have one’s head in the sand. The post shows a dire political immaturity.
 
calodo2003 said:
Apologies, I should have worded the post as ‘ignorant,’ I won’t make the same mistake twice.

Yet another baffling ignorant post here. :lol:

Imagine thinking abortion rights are simply ‘politics.’ Name one issue on the ballot box that affects every single citizen of voting age. Name one constitutional right that has been taking away that affects the same.

Your talking points are laughable as well. To not realize how unanticipated & impactful the midterm results were for the House is to have one’s head in the sand. The post shows a dire political immaturity.
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If that is the case, my completely non-ignorant friend, then explain how GOP won the last elections despite it came a couple of months after the Dobbs, essentially at the time when the topic was at its peak?

Thing is that roughly one-third of voters vote Dem no matter what, one-third vote GOP no matter what, and one-third can go either way. A lot depends on how this remaining one-third feel about the candidates and how much the presidential candidate can galvanize their voters to go to the polls. Abortion topic is gonna be an issue and based on polls this seems to help more Dems than GOP, but the election won’t be determined in abortion. If GOP do better than Dems in polls (when the time comes, right now no one cares cause too early) then Trump (or whoever) will be the new President. They can probably lose the popular vote by 4-5 million and still win the election.

You have completely simplified a complex system into a simple ‘Dobbs is bad (which well, I agree it is bad) so Dems will win’.
 
Revan said:
If that is the case, my completely non-ignorant friend, then explain how GOP won the last elections despite it came a couple of months after the Dobbs, essentially at the time when the topic was at its peak?

Thing is that roughly one-third of voters vote Dem no matter what, one-third vote GOP no matter what, and one-third can go either way. A lot depends on how this remaining one-third feel about the candidates and how much the presidential candidate can galvanize their voters to go to the polls. Abortion topic is gonna be an issue and based on polls this seems to help more Dems than GOP, but the election won’t be determined in abortion. If GOP do better than Dems in polls (when the time comes, right now no one cares cause too early) then Trump (or whoever) will be the new President. They can probably lose the popular vote by 4-5 million and still win the election.

You have completely simplified a complex system into a simple ‘Dobbs is bad (which well, I agree it is bad) so Dems will win’.
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You don’t seem to understand how much of an outlier the 2022 race was for the House, how the result flew in complete contradiction with anticipated outcome both through prediction & viewing historical norms.

Abortion / Dobbs decision crosses over political lines as evidenced by every special election result & the result of 2022 House. Barring any economic calamity, the Repubs have lost the suburban vote of major cities in battleground states & that is primarily through Dobbs. Without those voting blocs, it is extremely difficult for Repubs to win the electoral vote.

To say Dobbs had a peak time for impact is also misunderstanding its impact. I am not saying that the election will be decided on a single issue, but the Dobbs decision will have major impact on every election going forward until a common sense national abortion law is in place with similar provisos as Roe had. Simply nothing culturally will have as wide an impact on voting as Dobbs & we’ve actually seen this in recent special elections.
 
calodo2003 said:
You don’t seem to understand how much of an outlier the 2022 race was for the House, how the result flew in complete contradiction with anticipated outcome both through prediction & viewing historical norms.

Abortion / Dobbs decision crosses over political lines as evidenced by every special election result & the result of 2022 House. Barring any economic calamity, the Repubs have lost the suburban vote of major cities in battleground states & that is primarily through Dobbs. Without those voting blocs, it is extremely difficult for Repubs to win the electoral vote.

To say Dobbs had a peak time for impact is also misunderstanding its impact. I am not saying that the election will be decided on a single issue, but the Dobbs decision will have major impact on every election going forward until a common sense national abortion law is in place with similar provisos as Roe had. Simply nothing culturally will have as wide an impact on voting as Dobbs & we’ve actually seen this in recent special elections.
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Dude, I hope you are right. I just don’t think you are.

I don’t like the current Dems at all, but the current MAGA GOP are essentially lite-Nazis so them not winning would be great.
 
Revan said:
Dude, I hope you are right. I just don’t think you are.

I don’t like the current Dems at all, but the current MAGA GOP are essentially lite-Nazis so them not winning would be great.
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Now there’s something upon which we agree!
 
Revan said:
I think that Manchin as a third party candidate is polling at 20%, and in that configuration, Trump apparently easily wins. It is why Romney is trying to talk Manchin out of this.

Have Dems over-performed the polls except the last one? At the contrary, I think that GOP did better in elections than in polling (especially in 2016 and in Senate 2018).
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Manchin will never get 20% of the vote, not even Ross Perot did, that is fantasy land.

In addition, he will pull a significant number of right-wingers too.

Dems have overperformed ever since dobbs, its a consistent pattern, you cant just ignore it.

Of course, Biden not being well-liked and uninspiring is not a good sign for dems, so there is that, in favor of your argument.
 
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Bottom-line, the only way Trump wins again is in a low turnout election, Trump has not gotten any new supporters since 2020, he has probably lost a decent chunk, actually.

People have turned out against Trump ever since 2018, so i'm guessing that pattern continues in a year, though we shall see.
 
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