I didn’t like his model even when it showed Harris leading. I also didn’t like 538 when it showed her leading.He's an advisor at Polymarket which isn't an issue. The trouble with Silver isn't Silver, it’s the attention seeking critics who spend weird amounts of time attacking him because his model doesn't spit out numbers that favor their candidates. This is usually Democrats these days who can't seem to get over the idea that stats don't care about your feelings.
I agree. Feels like Biden is still holding the campaign back a little bit, also with Harris’ reluctance to criticize any decision Biden has made.If Biden cared about America he’d have it in him to do that himself. What possible cost is there to actually saying “It’s a shame. I didn’t realise I didn’t have the energy levels to campaign and run a country at the same time. As with recent bill blah blah blah, we are making American lives better. But I realised with the support of the party that I didn’t have enough left to ask you to vote for me again”
Just let Kamala call you old for 3 weeks. Who cares? It’d be a huge act and free Democrats to go hard at Trump.
It won’t happen, but it’s close to zero cost.
I agree. Feels like Biden is still holding the campaign back a little bit, also with Harris’ reluctance to criticize any decision Biden has made.
Good point.I agree. Feels like Biden is still holding the campaign back a little bit, also with Harris’ reluctance to criticize any decision Biden has made.
I didn’t like his model even when it showed Harris leading. I also didn’t like 538 when it showed her leading.
I haven’t been a fan of his for a while now.
His model now has Trump just over 50%. If he wins, Silver will say “I told you so.” If Trump loses he will say “Trump was barely leading… and I told you so.” We know that either can win, Mr. Silver.
Yeah no one else is calling out the hypocrisy.I’m not complaining? I’m desperate for Harris to win and I think this might be a winning massage if the Dems were willing to be frank about the Biden aspect. When they’re dodging the other side of the coin, I think it undermines the message. I’m talking about strategy, not morals.
She’s a fine candidate. This narrative from people who just want to be proven right is tiresome. She’s run a good campaign, made no significant mistakes, and done what could be asked of her, and she has presented herself as an alternative to Trump that should appeal to most normal people. If she doesn’t win because of her skin colour or gender, or because too many Americans live in a parallel universe, it won’t be her fault.
I’m talking about optics. You think an undecided won’t find it a bit rich hearing the Dems warning against picking an old candidate? Genuinely don’t know what your problem is.Yeah no one else is calling out the hypocrisy.
"'Fine' isn't good enough, and please don't use gender or race as an excuse for a potential loss. She’s known for being an average campaigner; she never won an election convincingly, not even in deep blue California.
Also, if Americans are living in a 'parallel universe", a candidate still needs to find a way to communicate effectively with them. The goal isn’t to preach or enlighten them - it is to win."
That said, she might still win, and we can all hope for that. But even then, I'd still believe there were other candidates who could have pulled much further ahead of Trump in the polls than she has.
If a model is no better at predicting the race than the average person, what's the point of it?I think you may be looking a bit too far into all of this. If a model says Trump has a 28% of winning then that he may indeed wind up winning (as he did in 2016), and it wouldn’t be the person running the model’s fault. At this point literally no one knows whats about to happen in a couple of weeks, so if a model is spitting out a 50-50 race than that seems completely reasonable. I personally think Trump has a decent shot at winning because more things need to go right for Harris to win, than they do for Trump. It may simply be a matter of him winning MI, and suddenly most of her reasonable paths to 270 have been cut off. There are obviously hidden variables like the shy Trump voter and the 2022 Roe voter who could change the numbers.
Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent wagers on a Trump election victory
Cause they decided to replace him didn’t they? If someone realizes their mistake and fixes it you still going to call out their “mistake”? Again if this what an undecided voter is basing their vote on that then they are dumb as feck.I’m talking about optics. You think an undecided won’t find it a bit rich hearing the Dems warning against picking an old candidate? Genuinely don’t know what your problem is.
If a model is no better at predicting the race than the average person, what's the point of it?
I’m not sure if you are purposely not understanding what I’m saying but let’s leave it here.Cause they decided to replace him didn’t they? If someone realizes their mistake and fixes it you still going to call out their “mistake”? Again if this what an undecided voter is basing their vote on that then they are dumb as feck.
Sadly, “dumb as feck” describes a large share of the electorate.Again if this what an undecided voter is basing their vote on that then they are dumb as feck.
Why we shouldn't take Polymarket etc seriously.
To give a confidence level for a certain outcome. You can say only above 90% confidence could be treated as a "prediction". After all, it's a statistical model, not a future teller.If a model is no better at predicting the race than the average person, what's the point of it?
Can't even fill a rally, sad!
If she loses, it won’t be through any fault of hers imo. Biden shafted the Dems by delusionally attempting to run despite clearly not being up for it. If he got out 6 months earlier, the Dems could’ve had a proper contest where people actually voted for who their nominee would be instead of bequeathing it to someone who crashed out of the 2020 primaries.
She will lose Michigan.
Harris can only blame herself if she lose, don't anyone dare to blame minorities if it happens.
Is Wisconsin tighter than Michigan?I don't think she will lose Michigan, little points to it.
She will lose Michigan.
Harris can only blame herself if she lose, don't anyone dare to blame minorities if it happens.
It's the Trump rally that they are saying was empty and I don't see many reasons why she will lose Michigan. I could be wrong but I just don't see where the votes are for Trump that are going to get him over the line there.She will lose Michigan.
Harris can only blame herself if she lose, don't anyone dare to blame minorities if it happens.
Without a doubt. Considering where the Dems were around four months ago when not only were they not competitive in the battleground states but also in trouble in states like Minnesota, Virginia and New Mexico it's been an unbelievable effort from her campaign to get her to the point where she has a real chance of winning. Biden should never have ran it put them on the backfoot and they've been playing catch up ever since.If she loses, it won’t be through any fault of hers imo. Biden shafted the Dems by delusionally attempting to run despite clearly not being up for it. If he got out 6 months earlier, the Dems could’ve had a proper contest where people actually voted for who their nominee would be instead of bequeathing it to someone who crashed out of the 2020 primaries.
Is Wisconsin tighter than Michigan?
You’re basically describing why polling models are absolutely and completely pointless.I think you may be looking a bit too far into all of this. If a model says Trump has a 28% of winning then that he may indeed wind up winning (as he did in 2016), and it wouldn’t be the person running the model’s fault. At this point literally no one knows whats about to happen in a couple of weeks, so if a model is spitting out a 50-50 race than that seems completely reasonable. I personally think Trump has a decent shot at winning because more things need to go right for Harris to win, than they do for Trump. It may simply be a matter of him winning MI, and suddenly most of her reasonable paths to 270 have been cut off. There are obviously hidden variables like the shy Trump voter and the 2022 Roe voter who could change the numbers.
Hillary lost it by only 11000 votes. We are talking about 300k arab and muslim voters in Michigan.I don't think she will lose Michigan, little points to it.
Hillary lost it by only 11000 votes. We are talking about 300k arab and muslim voters in Michigan.
You’re basically describing why polling models are absolutely and completely pointless.
If they don’t predict the winner then how can they have any value? You’re saying that as long as they don’t say that one candidate has 0% chance of winning then it’s not the models fault that they won?
Hey, I know I gave them a 2.5% chance of winning and they ended up winning but that just proves my model was right because the 2.5% was there to account for this scenario.
Utterly pointless.
Polls are the to do two jobs at the minute.
1. Give the media something to talk about.
2. Convince the public that candidate X has the momentum in order to actually create that momentum.
I would agree with that and I'm feeling even better about it after looking at those early voting numbers in Detroit. Like I said I don't see where Trump is going make ground there that pushes him past Harris. It would have to be a 2016 like turnout for Harris to lose Michigan and I just don't see it personally.Its possible, but there is little that points to Michigan flipping as of now, early numbers looks really good too.
This also isn't a Hillary-type of campaign, Harris isn't ignoring these states.
Every swing state is a worry, hence why they are called swing States, but Michigan is the one I'm least worried about out of the bunch.
Undertaker is a hero of mine.. very disappointing.
Undertaker is a hero of mine.. very disappointing.
Mick Foley and Kevin Nash.Damn it feels like Cena and Batista are the only liberal WWE icons. The Rock isn't necessarily MAGA but I feel like he leans right.
Undertaker is a hero of mine.. very disappointing.
