2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Rado_N said:
That’s rather disingenuous. It was a direct result of Trump.
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It would have been the result of any Republican winning in 2016, including Jeb Bush, so it would be an exaggeration to suggest its strictly because Trump was their nominee.
 
Raoul said:
It wouldn't been the result of any Republican winning in 2016, including Jeb Bush, so it would be an exaggeration to suggest its strictly because Trump was their nominee.
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Cool, but the point remains that another Trump presidency had a high likelihood of seeing further erosion of rights.
 
MrMarcello said:
If the GOP control both houses won't they just stall/find way to deny like when they stole a nomination from Obama?

Granted, it would be difficult to see the GOP controlling both houses for a duration of two presidential terms.
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You do not need two houses considering that House of Representatives has nothing to do with judge appointments.

The procedure is relatively simple, the President nominates a SCOTUS, and the Majority Leader decides to have a vote on the SCOTUS or not. If yes, then you just need a simple majority to confirm the SCOTUS. So if GOP controls the senate, they can simply decide to not vote for the SCOTUS, as they did in 2016. Same for Dems, if they somehow keep the senate but Trump wins, but that is pretty much impossible to happen.
 
Revan said:
You do not need two houses considering that House of Representatives has nothing to do with judge appointments.

The procedure is relatively simple, the President nominates a SCOTUS, and the Majority Leader decides to have a vote on the SCOTUS or not. If yes, then you just need a simple majority to confirm the SCOTUS. So if GOP controls the senate, they can simply decide to not vote for the SCOTUS, as they did in 2016. Same for Dems, if they somehow keep the senate but Trump wins, but that is pretty much impossible to happen.
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Even worse, they could simply not even bring the vote to the floor as McConnell did with Garland.
 
Raoul said:
Even worse, they could simply not even bring the vote to the floor as McConnell did with Garland.
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Yep, that is what I meant with majority leader deciding if the vote happens or not. In theory, there are mechanisms avoiding that, but it requires some GOP senators joining Democrats to force the MJ to have the vote happening, which has close to 0 probability.
 
RDCR07 said:
Surely there has to be scrutiny on this? This mofo will pay for anything but taxes.
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Gov Josh Shapiro agrees there should be a look into this
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro said that law enforcement should look into a one million dollar giveaway Elon Musk is doing for Pennsylvanians who sign his super PAC’s petition.

“I think there are real questions with how he is spending money in this race, how the dark money is flowing, not just into Pennsylvania, but apparently now into the pockets of Pennsylvanians,” Shapiro said in an interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press.” “That is deeply concerning.”
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I don't know if there is anything illegal per se, but it is definitely dirty. And for the party that spent years screaming voter fraud and whining even about passing out water to people who wait in long lines to vote on election day. Interesting that you wont see them joining in here because it benefits them potentially.
 
Beachryan said:
If some of these posters would be honest, they'd just say they really hope that Gaza costs Harris the election, as a punishment. That's all a lot of this is. Completely agnostic of what a Trump victory means.
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Shadenfreude is there, not gonna lie. Specially after so many here said that Gaza is not an issue for the elections. But Trump can't win at any costs. Because Gaza will not change and many others can for the worse id he gets elected. I am happy that I can't vote in this elections so I don't have to vote for genocide enablers like Harris

Other posters on the other side, takes any well deserved criticism for a genocide as wanting to Trump and seems that they want to silence and censors what it is. Harris is all in on killing the palestines for her own benefit and if she lose this elections because of the muslim votes, only her and her team is to blame because she had given countless opportunities to give a milder approach of the one that she had given. If there is no criticism, specially in election time, there is no option to put pressure for any issue, so they don't feel compelled to try to fix it, not that is working, mind you
 
To give some context about Nevada:



As expected, the GOP lead with in-person voting and the Dems in voting by mail.
 
Blood Mage said:
Looks like the dems are in trouble in Nevada as I thought. Hopefully they won't need it.
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Agreed. I was previously under the impression NV would be the most likely sunbelt state to go Harris. It could still happen, but if it does, it will be incredibly close.
 
The split between D and R in early voting won’t be like in 2020. As I said early today, still very early, though.

NV will be close too— we knew that.
 
Isn’t it natural that mail-in ballots would favour Dems less this time, given that Trump spent the last election cycle telling his voters not to vote by mail and has spent this one telling them the opposite?
 
Jev said:
Isn’t it natural that mail-in ballots would favour Dems less this time, given that Trump spent the last election cycle telling his voters not to vote by mail and has spent this one telling them the opposite?
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Trump has since changed his mind and is encouraging early voting, which may explain why his numbers are better so far, possibly to the detriment of Harris' chances.
 
Jev said:
Isn’t it natural that mail-in ballots would favour Dems less this time, given that Trump spent the last election cycle telling his voters not to vote by mail and has spent this one telling them the opposite?
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Yes, the more salient comparison is 2022, in terms of partisan split.
 
Jev said:
Isn’t it natural that mail-in ballots would favour Dems less this time, given that Trump spent the last election cycle telling his voters not to vote by mail and has spent this one telling them the opposite?
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Yes. The rural areas in NV (and GOP in Clark) seem to vote early this time more than in 2020 and 2022. That means fewer votes left on Election Day.

The county that best represents the Statewide vote is Washoe. Worth keeping eye on it (and others of course, especially Clark).
 
Raoul said:
Trump has since changed his mind and is encouraging early voting, which may explain why his numbers are better so far, which may be to the detriment of Harris' chances.
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Or it may mean election day won’t favour the GOP nearly as much?
 
Raoul said:
Trump has since changed his mind and is encouragingearly voting, which may explain why his numbers are better so far, which may be to the detriment of Harris' chances.
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Millions of Dems aren't staying home even if they vote less by mail/early compared to 2020, all it means is GOP is cannibalising more of their E-Day votes. It's a pattern that's pretty obvious in elections 21-23. In PA for instance, Trump won Eday by 30 points in 2020, the typical statewide race EDay margin since is GOP 8-15.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Millions of Dems aren't staying home even if they vote less by mail/early compared to 2020, all it means is GOP is cannibalising more of their E-Day votes. It's a pattern that's pretty obvious in elections 21-23. In PA for instance, Trump won Eday by 30 points in 2020, the typical statewide race EDay margin since is GOP 8-15.
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This is Ralston's somewhat ominous take.

I'm more interested in what the "other" category is. Assuming these are independents are non-aligned voters who will ultimately decide who wins.

 


I cant be bothered to dig up Ralston 2022 posts right now but I'm pretty sure he went through that song and dance back then as well and at last still called it (correctly) for CCM.
 
Blood Mage said:
Looks like the dems are in trouble in Nevada as I thought. Hopefully they won't need it.
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I mean, at 270 it would be endless panic about a single faithless elector destroying everything, though NC could come in and "save the day", i suppose.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:


I cant be bothered to dig up Ralston 2022 posts right now but I'm pretty sure he went through that song and dance back then as well and at last still called it (correctly) for CCM.
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I don't think we can compare a mid term election to one actually involving Trump. Its a completely different ball game in presidential cycles, especially when the R base is completely dedicated to supporting a specific candidate. You don't get that in mid terms, hence you can't rely on lower mid term turnout models.
 
Morty_ said:
I mean, at 270 it would be endless panic about a single faithless elector destroying everything, though NC could come in and "save the day", i suppose.
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Would that be a realistic worry? It's one thing, as an elector, to cast a protest vote in a clear election, but to be the one to actually alter the will of The People... Would litigation follow?
 
SirAF said:
Would that be a realistic worry? It's one thing, as an elector, to cast a protest vote in a clear election, but to be the one to actually alter the will of The People... Would litigation follow?
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I don't know, but i'd rather not find out, i really hope Nevada or NC holds/flips to avoid this, you just know the GOP would spend all their time until certification, trying to make it happen.
 
Raoul said:
I don't think we can compare a mid term election to one actually involving Trump. Its a completely different ball game in presidential cycles, especially when the R base is completely dedicated to supporting a specific candidate. You don't get that in mid terms, hence you can't rely on lower mid term turnout models.
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It's certainly more valid in terms of voting patterns because pandemic, but we have had this back and forth before to no avail, so just wait for Nov.5th to see who is right.
 
If Nevada comes down to the wire, more or less means Arizona goes back to republicans, i assume, it should be a couple of points more to the right.
 
Morty_ said:
If Nevada comes down to the wire, more or less means Arizona goes back to republicans, i assume, it should be a couple of points more to the right.
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Agreed. Just in terms of polling going into the final weeks, AZ seems to be increasingly solid for Trump given that Harris has only been up in 2 of 10 of the previous polls, including a recent Trump + 5 in a NYT/Sienna poll.
 
Morty_ said:
I don't know, but i'd rather not find out, i really hope Nevada or NC holds/flips to avoid this, you just know the GOP would spend all their time until certification, trying to make it happen.
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Absolutely! It wouldn't be too difficult to worry about Musk shoving some cash that way either...
 
It’s only one day. Nothing to celebrate and nothing to freak about. Nevada is a stubborn state, just like North Carolina.

In the long run, Democrats can’t count on it, though. And it can flip this cycle.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
It’s only one day. Nothing to celebrate and nothing to freak about. Nevada is a stubborn state, just like North Carolina.

In the long run, Democrats can’t count on it, though.
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NV is also not critical as long as Harris wins the blue wall and blue dot. If she manages those three states and one district in NE, she wins the election, hence the concern about recent internals in MI. If she does happen to lose one blue wall state, NC and GA are still on the table imo. I get the impression GA may yield a pleasant surprise for Harris.
 
Morty_ said:
Yeah, its odd, though they ran normal republican candidates in NV, in AZ, anything but.
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Which is why there will be a polling miss either way there IMO, I just cant see a delta of 15% of Trump-Gallego voters. Either you are anti MAGA or you aren't. Kelly actually didn't run ahead of Biden in 2020, he won more by percentage term but got about 50k less raw votes.
 
Raoul said:
NV is also not critical as long as Harris wins the blue wall and blue dot. If she manages those three states and one district in NE, she wins the election. Hence the concern about recent internals in MI. If she does happen to lose one blue wall state, NC and GA are still on the table imo. I get the impression GA may yield a pleasant surprise for Harris.
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Reading into early data, Georgia isn't looking all that great, NC looks better at the moment.

Could all change though, obviously.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Which is why there will be a polling miss either way there IMO, I just cant see a delta of 15% of Trump-Gallego voters. Either you are anti MAGA or you aren't. Kelly actually didn't run ahead of Biden in 2020, he won more by percentage term but got about 50k less raw votes.
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For sure, i can't imagine Gallego or Rosen actually running 10 points ahead of Harris, but like i've said before, maybe it really is 2012 again and split tickets has made a huge comeback, but i have to see it to believe it.

Senate races in rust belt states compared to Harris look much more reasonable by comparison.
 
Morty_ said:
Reading into early data, Georgia isn't looking all that great, NC looks better at the moment.

Could all change though, obviously.
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https://georgiavotes.com/

Care to elaborate? I think it's very encouraging actually, especially the 2020 non-voters group, significantly less white, younger, more women. And the biggest flashing neon sight is the women vote ratio has lead men by 10%.
 


It's a shame that we don't have these exact breakdown for every swing state, Wisconsin even has no breakdown for partisanship, but there's absolutely a pattern emerging here on the data we do have.
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
https://georgiavotes.com/

Care to elaborate? I think it's very encouraging actually, especially the 2020 non-voters group, significantly less white, younger, more women. And the biggest flashing neon sight is the women vote ratio has lead men by 10%.
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Well, couple of big dem-leaning counties aren't turning out as much as they should, Gwinnett County was one of those, and it lags behind state average by quite a bit, some of the more Trump-leaning countries has better turnout so far.

Women turnout, what was that like in 2020, i try to find.
 
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