Presumably this is what he was referring to ? Not sure why this would be big news, especially given how CA isn't in play.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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Presumably this is what he was referring to ? Not sure why this would be big news, especially given how CA isn't in play.
Let's have a picture of her shaking hands with John Bolton.
There is a reason for this, imo.
She is having to stay pretty tight with the Biden administration and his/their record. If she starts to move too far away from that, or be critical of any actions, she risks the Trump campaign capitalising on that.
The last time a sitting VP ran for President was Al Gore in 2000. But that was under Clinton who had a 65% approval rating and Gore still lost....
https://www.thoughtco.com/presidential-approval-ratings-4074188
Biden was at around 35% approval before he dropped out, so running at the sitting VP under that kind of unpopular President is near impossible.
Like it or not, she has to wear any of Bidens perceived failures. She can't say "oh, i disagree with Biden on this, that and the other" because people will simply say "why didnt you change those policies when you were VP". Negating the fact that a VP is a largely a ceremonial job.
As John Nance Garner said, the VP office "is not worth a bucket of warm spit."
The big one is Israel. Her rejecting to sit for Bibi's address to congress speaks volumes. Her criticising him or Israel publicly so close to the election is politically fraught though. Im sure she has advisers calculating this.
I do feel her messaging has been poor at times though, especially around the economy. For me, she should be explaining that the Biden administration was all about getting America back on its feet post COVID. And her Administration will be about making the economy fairer for everyone, including lowering costs.
I do think she has a strong set of values around fairness, justice, inclusivity and giving everyone a shot. I think we will start to see polices that reflect those if she gets into office. All be it, she may not get to do much given there will likely be a Republican Senate.
Trump on the other hand, well, his north star is himself.
Non of this may matter though, because the single biggest factor may be this Hurricane and the response to it. If there are floating bodies on TV and the internet, it will play really badly.
No, it's total number of registration, just short of 1.4 million people voted in Nevada in 2020 on a 78% turnout.
So in the past with the Dem registration edge consistently hovering around 100k, 60-80k was the range you want to see just before E-Day, when Rs were expected to do 2:1, and independents generally split evenly, with a slight edge to Rs. Now though, with the independents dwarfing both parties, its manifold harder to predict, just a 55:45 split either way can decide it, although if you put a gun to my head I'd say they will eventually break slightly Democratic. In 2022 in a R+3 environment, Cortrez Masto squeaked out a 0.7% win, so if the national environment this time is D+2/3 as most congressional preference surveys have it, I think a repeat of 2020 2.4% is on the cards.
I think it is a concern as Harris' weak support with Latino men will impact her in Arizona and Nevada.
This guy was pretty spot on on earlier elections, he is saying several times that Florida is in play as is NC https://x.com/cbouzy
He said he would delete his account if Dems didn’t take 54 Senate seats or sth like that, also insisted on them taking the House.
He’s not a complete charlatan like the GOP grifters screaming Red Virginia, Red NY etc on that hellsite but he’s far from credible. This is just engagement farming to get people to sign up to his website.
NC and Florida are not on the same level, if Harris wins Florida, then all the swing states already goes to her by a comfortable margin, including NC.
It was a good run, Tester, but nobody can outrun partisanship forever.
But trump!!!
Got you. Makes sense.
One factor could be registered Republicans that will vote for Trump.
Unfortunately, i cant find which recent poll it was, but I had seen 9% of registered Republicans planned to vote for Harris. Even if it is half of that, it could make the difference in multiple states.
Has there ever been a more disliked politician than Cruz? I have no idea how he keeps winning.
Being the incumbent Republican in Texas helps. And to be fair, he has only actually been re-elected once, which was a very narrow victory against Beto O'Rourke. It's just that senate terms are six years, so it feels like he has been around forever.
All these talks about TX and FL to be close is just noise again this time. Dems can't even win a U.S senate spot or governorship in those for awhile.
Those term lengths are ridiculous. They should be 4 years maximum.
The Republicans are favored to win there, both the senate and presidential races. However, it’s worthy to campaign there, especially for the senate. “Close” means that there is a chance, however small it might be, for the Democrats to win. I personally believe in that.
I apply the same principle to Hogan in Maryland. The Democratic candidate is the favorite to win, but Hogan has some chance, and should campaign.
There is a chance for senate in Texas, since Cruz is that unlikable.
Between this and the 10th district poll by Susquehana yesterday, it really looks like PA will end up closer to 2022 than 2020. If Harris is outrunning Biden in bellweather/purplish counties by 2-3 points then she should also get a turnout boost from Philly/Pittsburgh to offset any difference in the red rural counties, as Biden's number in the two big cities werent actually all that impressive either.
Trump has apparently taken the lead in Michigan in the RCP average as of this morning.
He's super unlikable the videos of his "tour bus" getting tangled in power lines the other day brought me joy.
Still will be very difficult getting a win against him. Won't be surprised if it ends up even being less close than his race then Beto at the end but we are trying.
If Harris is looking solid in PA you'd imagine she'll take Michigan and Wisconsin too wouldn't you? If she's doing badly in those states she must be doing badly in PA too and the polling is off.
The thing is while those 3 states are quite similar, and MI/WI usually vote to the left of PA (not always, in 2020 WI was 0.7% vs PA 1.17%), any slight variance can cause 1 to go the other way, in face theres a higher chance of them not falling the same way rather than the opposite.
With that being said, while the Twitter bedwetting is going on off that Q poll (and those mythical internals), early voting data in PA/MI doesnt point to a lack of enthusiasm on the D side. And while I've long been in the camp of early voting data is unreliable signifier, it's still better than a pollster that show a 9 point swing in MI in 3 weeks, with no major news.
That's true, although the three rust belt states are likely to be so close that its completely plausible Harris wins two and Trump one. If she loses Michigan, she could still win by by taking NV and picking off one of the three sunbelt states (NC, GA, AZ).
I mean what senators are exactly likeable from both sides. The state itself is still very much deep red. It won't change for a long time. People kept saying it is getting closed. I don't know if it is true. In my opinion, some GOP voters haven’t been turning out as they should in recent elections—it’s not that their ideology has changed. Same thing with Alaska the other day.
Obama's first Harris rally tonight in Penn. Wonder what his other stops are sounds like he should hit up MI too
You're sarcastic, but yes Trump. That is all you need to know at this moment in time.
Appreciate that huge (hooge) swathes of red states are gorgeous and far nicer places to be than many places in England.
But I hear this kinda stuff and can’t help but link the stubbornness required to live in an area that’s so susceptible to hurricanes and flooding, and the pig headed stubbornness required to follow Bush to tea party to Trump to MAGA.
Are huge properties cheaper in these places? Because on this tortured Isle, bigger houses are cheaper where bad shit happens. Is that the case in Florida and other Hurricane prone areas?
Are there just a collection of fecking idiots there?
Fully appreciating that there are hundreds of thousands, if not millions of people that live in these spots that are not thick as feck and a whole variety of life factors go into determining where ‘home’ is. Many folks on here will be dealing with flooding right now and I’m not aiming artillery at you with these questions.
But for a judgmental twat looking from over here… so many fecking idiots seem to live in these various spots and vote Trump. Actively getting sucked into HAARP and cloud seeding big government conspiracies, instead of thinking ‘this is a really sketchy part of the world and I should turn to my community for support, instead of looking for a bad guy to blame’.
Really not suggesting that anyone here affected by this disaster, doesn’t deserve sympathy. At all.
I know it's unlikely too, Cruz is favorite here.
It has been a bit of rewriting history when it comes to 2018 senate race though, people talk as if dems lost a winnable race, when Beto wasn't polling particularly close, the race was 4-5 points closer than the average.
No guarantee the same happens again, and Allred is running a different type of campaign than Beto, but for what it's worth, he is polling significantly closer.
Beto while I liked him in his campaign he was radically left of where Texas is. And still got close. He never should have tried to run for President after that made him a 2x loser for no reason. Allred's approach is more in line with what a Texas Democrat could do so it makes sense to me with his polling. I wasn't even sure he would speak at the DNC even and was glad he did.
It's hard to quantify how much cheaper they are. The price for a house on my street would fetch this in South Carolina: a 4bd 5 ba 4600 square foot home on 1.35 acres.
It's hard to quantify how much cheaper they are. The price for a house on my street would fetch this in South Carolina: a 4bd 5 ba 4600 square foot home on 1.35 acres.
It is without a comparison price or property
No dramas for not disclosing though.
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Sorry, that house in the photo is $1.1 million. https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/113-Rapid-River-Trl-Greenville-SC-29615/11035175_zpid/
Here's a house near me, for $1.5M, there is nothing for that price of $1.1M. 2bd 1ba, 1000 square feet, no lot.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1012-Prospect-Ave-Hermosa-Beach-CA-90254/20411255_zpid/
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Trump was right. This is a failing nation.I would never live in Florida, partly because of the weather. You KNOW that a big storm/hurricane is coming your way sooner or soonerer. Every year, multiple times. FL is sourended by a lot of water, from the Ocean to the Gulf of Mexico.
A professor of mine once told me this: I lived in Morocco, and visited the most remote places of that country. I found out that even there people are less ignorant than in my home country, the United States of America.
America has many of the people like this woman in the video, including in Florida.
Add to that Trump: he has impacted this country in an unprecedented and irreversible way, at least for a generation. Everything is about him, even natural disasters.
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