2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

[Raoul]

I know it's Megyn Kelly, and I think she's on some shitty little network nobody watches, but if this is true could it cause ay harm to him and/or Harris?

I must say I'm a little skeptical how nobody else got this first, but Kelly used to be one of Fox's Top presenters so I suppose she could have got it first. From the teaser clip of certainly doesn't look good for Walz to have 4 men who served under his command come out against him. So it going to be an exclusive that's going to blow up? Or a big nothing burger? Or Fake News?

Kelly's show is actually on YouTube. I doubt any credible tv network would touch her at this point.

As for Walz, no one is going to vote based on Walz or Vance. At this point its all just noise designed to lower Harris' numbers and suppress her turnout in Nov.

 

[maniak]

American elections are really something. It's all a big entertainment tv show. And even smart people play along.

 

[4bars]

The point here is right wing pollsters have form for flooding the public with dogshit consistently lean R polls. Trafalgar released a down ballot race poll that were off by 33(!) points, and the less said about the likes of Rasmussen or Echelon Insights where their chief pollster are actively shilling on Twitter for Trump the better.

Predictive polling models are like the human body, if you feed crap in, crap comes out. Silver missed it 16, 20, and 22 just like the rest of the field, and now his model includes all the polls I just listed. He can weight them all he wants, but if they are all that is there in battleground polls past recent couple of weeks there will be a movement towards Trump in his model (which, interestingly btw, never off by more than 2% from Polymarket, which he now works for). Meanwhile, national polling have shown a pretty uniform 3 point shift towards Harris in the pre-post Convention period, and recent polls for Nebraska or Minnesota shows similar margin to 2020, which is consistent with evidence we have seen elsewhere of a D+3/4 top ticket.

It’s gonna be close, but we always have to keep in mind that 1) polling errors can happen in both direction and 2) right wing pollsters are actively doing a psy op by skewing the averages with their biased, dogshit polls designed to galvanise their base.

I get what you mean. But yhis pollsters are not considered for the averages. Rasmussen itself is out of 538 average due to its questionable methodology and had been around longer than any of these pollsters that you mentioned so i am sure they dont make the cut either. As it stands, it will be the same pollsters more or less so is more probable that the average will underestimate trump than not

Till the oposite happens due to better pollying method, due to people not being ashamed of saying that they are voting for trump, is wishful thinking and going against historical facts

 

[4bars]

American elections are really something. It's all a big entertainment tv show. And even smart people play along.

And is a neverending story. Next day of election, is time for midterms

We are talking about billions in a 4 year cycle burned down. Instead of putting it in the economy, partially to lobby to feck over the country

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

I get what you mean. But yhis pollsters are not considered for the averages. Rasmussen itself is out of 538 average due to its questionable methodology and had been around longer than any of these pollsters that you mentioned so i am sure they dont make the cut either. As it stands, it will be the same pollsters more or less so is more probable that the average will underestimate trump than not

Till the oposite happens due to better pollying method, due to people not being ashamed of saying that they are voting for trump, is wishful thinking and going against historical facts

Nate Silver is no longer with 538, his model on his substack does include those polls, which is what Raoul showed with Trump chances increasing. Other models from DecisionDesk, 538 or people like Sabato, Wasserman etc don’t show any ‘Trump gain’.

The opposite already happened, a lot, since Dobbs. Democratic candidates have regularly outperformed polls in nearly election, from gubernatorial, senate, congressional, specials. It’s just people being reticent of the ‘Trump factor’ and not ready to acknowledge it

 

[4bars]

Nate Silver is no longer with 538, his model on his substack does include those polls, which is what Raoul showed with Trump chances increasing. Other models from DecisionDesk, 538 or people like Sabato, Wasserman etc don’t show any ‘Trump gain’.

The opposite already happened, a lot, since Dobbs. Democratic candidates have regularly outperformed polls in nearly election, from gubernatorial, senate, congressional, specials. It’s just people being reticent of the ‘Trump factor’ and not ready to acknowledge it

I dont follow nate silver but 538. And their averages should be similar to 2016 abd 2020, where by the way, Rasmussen was accounted and now not.

And 538 average underestimated trump. Especially in the rust belt. Currently kamala has lower numbers than Biden and clinton. And still have to overcome the 2-4% EC vs popular vote

So if we take in account the past as we should if we want to be consistent with historical statistics, seeing now kamala as a winner is going with your gut and wishful thinking.

What nate says now is not comparable with anything because his method was not there in the past but for what i read here and a quick google search, currently trump has a very big percentage to win

So again. If the polls dont change, that they might specially last month, Trump will most likely be the next POTUS

 

[Raoul]

So again. If the polls dont change, that they might specially last month, Trump will most likely be the next POTUS

Quite likely, yes. I just had a look over at 538 and their polling average only has Harris up 3.2 at the moment, which is not really where she would like to be nationally going into when the early voting period begins in PA in two weeks from now. Biden won in 2020 by 4 percent and barely scraped by in the EC, so Harris would need to put up similar numbers or else risk Trump winning random rust and sunbelt states to cut off all her paths to victory.

 

[gaffs]

Katie Johnson says Trump and Epstein raped her in the summer of 1994 when she was just 13 years old

Can someone explain why this image is not on every billboard in MI, PA, WI, AZ, GA, NV and NC right now?

The Dems play too nice.

 

[Morty_]

The most important three states will be Pennsylvania, Georgia and NC, and the good news is that Harris probably only needs one out of them to win the EC.

All 3 being a coin toss(PA probably a bit less so imo) is not where Harris wants to be, but having to win only one out of 3 coin flips is not the worst position either.

 

[Revan]

The most important three states will be Pennsylvania, Georgia and NC, and the good news is that Harris probably only needs one out of them to win the EC.

All 3 being a coin toss(PA probably a bit less so imo) is not where Harris wants to be, but having to win inly one out of 3 coin flips is not the worst position either.

Only if she also wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. Which are all a coin toss at the moment. So she kinda needs to win 5 out of 7 coin flips (and it depends which ones).

 

[Morty_]

Only if she also wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. Which are all a coin toss at the moment. So she kinda needs to win 5 out of 7 coin flips (and it depends which ones).

Not to the same degree, Michigan is bluest out of the rust-belt states, i don't find it particulary likely it flips to Trump, Nevada is not a state known to underestimate republicans and is trending back, Harris then only needs one out of Wisconsin and Arizona, for the record, in this scenario, but those two are definitely coin tosses, don't particulary trust Wisconsin despite good polling, Arizona will be super close like last time, probably.

 

[Raoul]

Only if she also wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada. Which are all a coin toss at the moment. So she kinda needs to win 5 out of 7 coin flips (and it depends which ones).

True. She would be absolute bonkers to presume she wins the Presidency by simply winning one state. Even though PA is highly correlated with a win for either Harris or Trump, it would be highly irresponsible to not go all in on every single swing state and in the process cede one or more to the opposition.

 

[Morty_]

Money doesn't win elections, but it shows something, PA and Georgia are predictably on top, don't know whats going on with NC though, republicans needs to defend that.

 

[Wibble]

It wasn’t intended as such. Also, since this thread is largely populated by Europeans, you can’t expect everyone to be well versed in the history of Aunt Jemima and other early 20th century mammy caricatures.

Surprising though as we all consume so much US culture through TV and film. Maybe it is an age thing as well?

 

[Raoul]

Surprising though as we all consume so much US culture through TV and film. Maybe it is an age thing as well?

Yep, its definitely a generational thing. American millennials and Gen Z types are less likely to know as much about this as Gen X and Boomers.

 

[nimic]

I dont follow nate silver but 538. And their averages should be similar to 2016 abd 2020, where by the way, Rasmussen was accounted and now not.

The model followed Silver in the divorce, not 538. What their current model says has no connection to what it said in 2016 and 2020, since it presumably didn't exist yet.

 

[4bars]

The model followed Silver in the divorce, not 538. What their current model says has no connection to what it said in 2016 and 2020, since it presumably didn't exist yet.

As far as i know, 538 is averaging polls and still does. Doubt they deviated much of anything. Is Silver that is doing this mathematic model of percentages a la betting style. 538 still essentally the same

 

[Dudu]

I must be hallucinating?

 

[Laurencio]

I must be hallucinating?

Well that was unexpected.

 

[Iker Quesadillas]

As far as i know, 538 is averaging polls and still does. Doubt they deviated much of anything. Is Silver that is doing this mathematic model of percentages a la betting style. 538 still essentally the same

538 model was so fecked they had to shut it down and tinker with it recently.

https://abcnews.go.com/538/538-adjusting-election-model-harris-versus-trump/story?id=112563822

 

[Mike Smalling]

I must be hallucinating?

Is this supposed to be nationwide? Do they seriously only ask around 400 people for each?

 

[Rado_N]

Money doesn't win elections, but it shows something, PA and Georgia are predictably on top, don't know whats going on with NC though, republicans needs to defend that.

The role money plays in US politics is so incredibly fecked up.

 

[nimic]

As far as i know, 538 is averaging polls and still does. Doubt they deviated much of anything. Is Silver that is doing this mathematic model of percentages a la betting style. 538 still essentally the same

Yeah true, the average is probably not that changed (if the pollster ratings are similar), the biggest change will be in the chances of winning state by state and in total.

538 was always famous for its model though, it's not just Silver suddenly doing it now.

 

[Beachryan]

The role money plays in US politics is so incredibly fecked up.

The thing that kills me is that in the end only one side wins. So half the money essentially just gets wasted. You could do so much with those funds, even in just something like public education.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

I dont follow nate silver but 538. And their averages should be similar to 2016 abd 2020, where by the way, Rasmussen was accounted and now not.

And 538 average underestimated trump. Especially in the rust belt. Currently kamala has lower numbers than Biden and clinton. And still have to overcome the 2-4% EC vs popular vote

So if we take in account the past as we should if we want to be consistent with historical statistics, seeing now kamala as a winner is going with your gut and wishful thinking.

What nate says now is not comparable with anything because his method was not there in the past but for what i read here and a quick google search, currently trump has a very big percentage to win

So again. If the polls dont change, that they might specially last month, Trump will most likely be the next POTUS

If you are only into polling averages, then there’s nothing to be gained from following 538 since other averages exist and they were all off in 16, 20 and 22. Polls got 16 wrong, they compensated by weighting by education, got a pretty good 18 result, then off in 20 as well, compensated by inflating R lean and taking more R based pollsters and got a horrendous 22 when they predicted a ‘red wave’ and got a trickle instead.

The logical reasoning here isn’t ‘polls underestimated Trump and they always will so we should just automatically deduct however much point from past discrepancies to guesstimate the real number’. If we are doing that with other current averages like DDHQ/The Hill, RCP as well as 538 then Trump is winning 350+ EVs, which doesn’t jive with reality when his campaign pulled out of NH today and only spending to get a narrow 270-268 win (PA + NC + GA). The lesson from past polling errors is that polls in general are becoming a lot less reliable due to response bias, struggle to reach low propensity voters as well as accounting for them, and bad faith actors providing bad data due to partisanship. In that environment, hard data like actual results from primaries, specials, ballot initiatives etc become more valuable in predicting trends and they are pretty good for Democrats.

Also, 2 polling errors in presidential don’t make ‘historical statistics’, that’s not how stats work. I get being apprehensive in this case, because the risk is enormous, but we don’t go about life fearing the worst that can possibly happen will repeat itself ad infinitum in every single scenario and the same applies for political forecast.

 

[Krakenzero]

Money doesn't win elections, but it shows something, PA and Georgia are predictably on top, don't know whats going on with NC though, republicans needs to defend that.

As an observation, the last time PA, MI and WI went to different candidates was in 1988. Their 44 electoral votes are very likely the kingmaker.

If they are effectively 226-219 with 7 toss ups as 270towin shows, Harris needs the Rust Belt and nothing more; and Trump wins with the Rust Belt plus one additional state. Only if the Rust Belt gets divided (which hasn't happened in 36 years) the other states become decisive.

 

[langster]

The thing that kills me is that in the end only one side wins. So half the money essentially just gets wasted. You could do so much with those funds, even in just something like public education.

Yeah, but that's not how the political machine works is it? And until the whole system is reformed it won't change. The saddest part is there doesn't seem the will to change it either. Any time it is mentioned it seems to be quickly forgotten and always seems to be near the bottom of a long list of things that take priority and never seem to change either.

Strange how that's always the case isn't it?!

 

[Pughnichi]

Agree with an earlier poster. Harris needs to convince people to vote for her.

Trump will still have his strong supporters go out to vote regardless.

Recent uk election was the lowest turnout because people couldn’t decide between an idiot and an imbecile.

Those undecided or not convinced by her might just not bother (if the uk election stands for anything) she really needs to convince the undecided to get off their arse and tick a box for her

 

[Raoul]

Agree with an earlier poster. Harris needs to convince people to vote for her.

Trump will still have his strong supporters go out to vote regardless.

Recent uk election was the lowest turnout because people couldn’t decide between an idiot and an imbecile.

Those undecided or not convinced by her might just not bother (if the uk election stands for anything) she really needs to convince the undecided to get off their arse and tick a box for her

This is especially true since Trump's ceiling is about 45%. Therefore if she can get to 50% in the polls, there's a very good chance she wins. Trump knows he can't get much higher than 45, and as such, will be spending the rest of the campaign desperately trying to lower her numbers instead of raise his own.

 

[VorZakone]

 

[VorZakone]

 

[nimic]

He didn't do that when Trump basically laughed at his father for getting shot down and tortured?

 

[Mike Smalling]

I also saw that AOC went after her, and they are correct. She’s not even trying to accomplish anything. At best it’s pure vanity, at worst she is a Russian asset.

 

[Raoul]

Katie Johnson says Trump and Epstein raped her in the summer of 1994 when she was just 13 years old

Can someone explain why this image is not on every billboard in MI, PA, WI, AZ, GA, NV and NC right now?

The Dems play too nice.

Because it would be pointless. There have been countless allegations against Trump about bad things he done for decades and none of them have affected his political viability. He literally made the public statement that he could murder someone in broad daylight and his flock would still vote for him.

 

[Raoul]

Will his sister follow him ?

 

[Eboue]

It's over for trump.

 

[maniak]

He's an absolute piece of shit in every single aspect of his life and fecks everyone over who isn't me? Yeah he gets my vote.

Wait, he did a thumbs at a cemetery and it annoyed me a bit? I'm done.

Some people are really fecking stupid.

 

[Raoul]

I must be hallucinating?

If they weren't to be believed when they skewed towards Trump, they just as well shouldn't be believed now.

 

[MarylandMUFan]

He's an absolute piece of shit in every single aspect of his life and fecks everyone over who isn't me? Yeah he gets my vote.

Wait, he did a thumbs at a cemetery and it annoyed me a bit? I'm done.

Some people are really fecking stupid.

Death by a thousand papercuts. I know it seems idiotic that someone would switch their vote, but there are people that are less MAGA than they were 4 years ago that all of these things combine could impact.

 

[maniak]

Death by a thousand papercuts. I know it seems idiotic that someone would switch their vote, but there are people that are less MAGA than they were 4 years ago that all of these things combine could impact.

It's a god thing they won't vote for him, I guess, but they're still fecking morons in my book.