Yes he ate it weirdly, so the British people decided stripping the public sector bare through austerity was a better option.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
- Start date
Not particularly encouraging interview reviews for Harris
https://bbc.com/news/articles/cgky2v681z4o
I want to see her challenged’ - swing voters unconvinced by Harris interview
https://bbc.com/news/articles/cgky2v681z4o
Sorry, don't take much notice from these "unconvinced voter" interviews after this sham from CNN...
And did you see those ""unconvinced voters" that were on stage with Trump and Tulsi Gabbard a could of nights ago? They were laughing and clapping at every moronic thing that came of Trump's pie hole.
One guy doesn’t negate the opinions of others on other panels and focus groups. The interview itself went ok, but I can see how it could’ve easily been interpreted as underwhelming among people who are legit undecided since there was nothing inspirational or substantive that came out of Harris’ responses.
All very true. Republicans are complete hypocrites. These "Evangelical Christians" especially as they seem to worship a man that has kids with 3 baby mommas, one of which he buried in an overgrown plot on his golf course for a tax break.
If the IFV announcement is a calculation, rather than a thought he had in his mind that came out during an interview, then i suppose he thinks the Evangelical's are in the bag anyway.
What may annoy them more, is that many believe that there should be no reason for abortion. Yet, he is saying that the current Florida abortion ban, which does not allow abortion after six weeks, should be made longer. That option isn't on the ballot. I believe that he may have flip flopped again.
He wants to run away from the abortion issue, but he is stuck with it. The IVF announcement is to show he is "pro family".
Assuming he won't get it done, because of all the reasons you pointed out, then is is an especially cruel thing to promise, as desperate couples who want a child may be suckered in.
It wasn't just one guy - which I don't believe CNN have acknowledged to apologize for, especially given the Trump campaign used his CNN piece and span it on socials.
It was the stooges on stage with Trump the other night.
And the three guys in the BBC article. I mean "Rohan Vijayan" - obviously of Indian heritage. He starts off by saying "Harris can speak coherently, which I think is just an upgrade from the prior two candidates, both Trump and Biden".
Case closed Rohan. She is coherent, half Indian and you have seen Trump disgrace the nation and the office of the Preseident for 4 years. What do you want to see?
It pissed me off that Kamala, or any other candidate has to perform like they are a demigod. Yet, half the nation as well as these "undecided voters" dont seem to have any concern about the other guy talking about Hannibal Lechter, electric sharks and bird grave yards.
An example. Trump was asked by one of those "undecided stooges" the other night, what his plan was to make life more affordable and bring down inflation. Softball question.
His response....
“Some people don’t eat bacon anymore. We are going to get the energy prices down. This was caused by their horrible energy. Wind. They want wind all over the place. But when it doesn’t blow, we have a little problem."
If Kamala verbatim said these words, she would lose 15 points in the polls, be dropped from the ticket and be take to an asylum.
As much as I think Kamala's interview was lacking in substance, people have to remember to moron on the other side. Especially these apparent undecided voters.
Yes, everyone knows that Trump is the alternative, but that is not going to animate people to go out of their way to vote for Harris. At best, it would be a good excuse to not be bothered to vote at all. She has to actually convince people to vote for her by being aspirational about something, much as Obama did. Otherwise Trump is simply going to go negative the rest of the way and erode her favorables enough to suppress her turnout and win.
Everything spare GA is trending red today.
Are you sure? There is still a huge amount of Anti-Trump sentiment, just like there was in 2020. That helped Biden massively in 2020, even though Biden wasn't exactly an inspiring candidate.
There difference today is that many seem to have amnesia about just how terrible Trump was for fours years.
But I do agree, she does have to inspire people to to the polls. The massive number of new voter registrations, especially under 25, since she started her campaign is a great sign. She needs to follow up with good policy that appeals to this demographic. One of their biggest issue will be getting on the housing ladder so keep talking about that.
Everything spare GA is trending red today.
Source?
539 still has Harris winning 57 times out of 100.
I did see a bunch of Insider Advantage and Trafalgar Group statewide polls drop. Both are Republican leaning pollsters.
How do those polls translate to that winning percentage? It’s Nate Silver, right? Surely must be overestimating the post-DNC bump.Everything spare GA is trending red today.
Silver has his own site. Some of the data may not be available to non-subscribers.
Its a part of his model. Not sure how he creates it, but some of what he is saying does make sense because Harris currently has a 3.5% popular advantage, which makes the race a complete toss up at this point. Also, the fact that PA is a growing concern for Harris is probably helping Trump in Silver's probability analysis.
Nothing else the Dems can do in response to those polls than keep doing what they're doing. I remain utterly baffled how after excellent press of a pretty accepted excellent DNC at the same time Donald is falling apart can be causing these movements.
Maybe Fox News is just that powerful. It's kind of all I've got to go on. Because nothing that is actually happening should see people tending towards Trump, imo.
Maybe Fox News is just that powerful. It's kind of all I've got to go on. Because nothing that is actually happening should see people tending towards Trump, imo.
Undecided? Seriously?
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I hear he is putting the price up for $20 a month.
This would be helpful if Trump was actually running in 2022. No one thinks Walker, Oz, Mastriano, Lake et al were going to draw the types of numbers as they could if Trump was actually running for President the same year.
That goes both ways, dem candidates would have recieved more votes too, and this is looking like a better national environment for dems than 2022.
The point is they didn't need more votes. Trump's hand selected stooges who run in years when he isn't running are always going to underperform because Trump himself isn't running.
Kari Lake is doing terrible in the polls, Trump being on top of the ballot doesn't appear to help her any at all this time, unless polls underestimate her by a lot this time around.
That's because she's a terrible candidate whose time has already come and gone, and she is facing a surging opponent in a state that is trending blue in recent years. Even if she wasn't a vacuous, clout chasing charlatan, she would be losing whether she was a MAGA stooge or an ordinary Republican.
How can you be sure? Gallego isn't even an incumbent, if there was a "normal" republican as senate candidate, no guarantee he would be the favorite at all, Arizona isn't that blue yet.
Because he's hispanic and a vet in a state where the primary population center (Maricopa county) is over 30% hispanic at a time when the entire state is trending Democrat. Therefore he was always going to do well and because of his military background also get some R leaning independents, especially when juxtaposed against a grifting fraud like Lake.
Wow.
I mean I don't know, but surely some part of that is illegal? That's real?
Anytime you think you've seen the 'if any other politician did this it would be over' thing with Trump, it just moves on to Tuesday. To be fair, the Arlington Cemetery would have finished off anyone else, and that was just last week.
I'm not even mad at Trump, he's just a pathetic, sad old man wasting his final years being hated and hating the world. It's the fact that his followers like this behaviour, and people like Elon Musk condone it that get to me. F*ck em. F*ck em all. Done pretending they're good people I just need to make more of an effort to understand.
Things Trump has done that would instantly kill any other political career #507
And don't forget folks, it was only last week he was whining and bitching about Obama making a mean joke and how he never ever makes mean jokes, or online commrnts or says horrible or nasty things about anyone. Ever..
Earlier today, he again called Elizabeth Warren Pocahontas.
And don't forget folks, it was only last week he was whining and bitching about Obama making a mean joke and how he never ever makes mean jokes, or online commrnts or says horrible or nasty things about anyone. Ever..
Earlier today, he again called Elizabeth Warren Pocahontas.
They didnt overestimate Trump vote. They overestimated the republican vote 6% more because trump was not jn the ballot. The reality is that in 2016 and 2020, trump was underestimated by a few points. Lets see this year, but between the overestomation on D vs Trump and 3% is needed for EC for D, so far is not enough for Kamala. But much better than Biden
The fact she pronounces "Caramel" correctly is enough for me. Give her the nuclear codes now.
I know it's Megyn Kelly, and I think she's on some shitty little network nobody watches, but if this is true could it cause ay harm to him and/or Harris?
I must say I'm a little skeptical how nobody else got this first, but Kelly used to be one of Fox's Top presenters so I suppose she could have got it first. From the teaser clip of certainly doesn't look good for Walz to have 4 men who served under his command come out against him. So it going to be an exclusive that's going to blow up? Or a big nothing burger? Or Fake News?
With how the narrative has shaped up regarding Walz and Vance, it was only a matter of time before they’d come up with some smear. They must have been scouring America for anyone with something bad to say. Walz has probably commanded hundreds of guardsmen over a +20 year period, so not that surprising that some would hold a grudge. If more come forward it might get bad.
It's hard to compete when there's nothing to hold over the other side. The asymmetry of it remains incredible.
Sounds like some Fox News bullshit that won’t go anywhere. To think this shit was not checked when picking him is delusional.
Nothing burger for me. I'd imagine that those who will watch and devour this shite are already voting Trump anyway.
The point here is right wing pollsters have form for flooding the public with dogshit consistently lean R polls. Trafalgar released a down ballot race poll that were off by 33(!) points, and the less said about the likes of Rasmussen or Echelon Insights where their chief pollster are actively shilling on Twitter for Trump the better.
Predictive polling models are like the human body, if you feed crap in, crap comes out. Silver missed it 16, 20, and 22 just like the rest of the field, and now his model includes all the polls I just listed. He can weight them all he wants, but if they are all that is there in battleground polls past recent couple of weeks there will be a movement towards Trump in his model (which, interestingly btw, never off by more than 2% from Polymarket, which he now works for). Meanwhile, national polling have shown a pretty uniform 3 point shift towards Harris in the pre-post Convention period, and recent polls for Nebraska or Minnesota shows similar margin to 2020, which is consistent with evidence we have seen elsewhere of a D+3/4 top ticket.
It’s gonna be close, but we always have to keep in mind that 1) polling errors can happen in both direction and 2) right wing pollsters are actively doing a psy op by skewing the averages with their biased, dogshit polls designed to galvanise their base.
Trump 2020 was not underestimated in the sunbelt, for the record, only exception being NC.
Two thoughts:
1. If that ends up being the case, great, but it doesn't change what the Dems need to do
2. I don't understand how creating complancency (with overestimated support) does anything to actually help Trump, other than feel good about himself. If it means voters are less likely to bother voting, or increase pressure on Dems to show up feels counter-productie to me
Dems have smart people running this campaign, experienced folk doing the ground game and Trump is literally paying for ads to air around Mar-a-Lago so he feels happy and admitting in Fox News interviews that he tried to steal the election. And it's still going to be very close.
1) Yes, even a D+4 top ticket is still a knife’s edge election. Tipping point state in that scenario is < 1%.
2) The Cheeto has openly touted Rasmussen in the past, massaging his ego is certainly part of it. On the broader point though, public polling is strong perception, Republican’s enthusiasm is lower at the moment and if all they see is meaningful consistent leads for Harris in national and state pollings, that can discourage voters who are repulsed by T but consistent party soldiers to turn out.