2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris

Sir Matt said:
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Disgraceful.

All so he can get "Trumbs up" pics at a grave...
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I mean, Who does that?

He is using the families a political props. This is why he wants a crowd at the debates. So he can put grieving families in the front row.

If he tried it, Harris should invite the Central Park 5.
 
The Cook report has no states as lean R and only 1 electoral college vote as lean D (NE-02). So it boils down to NE-02 and 7 toss-up states MI, PA, WI, GA, AZ, NV and NC. As an example, Harris wins if she takes NE-02, MI, PA and WI.
 
gaffs said:
If i was running the Harris campaign, I would pay for this Trump Trading Cards ad to be ran 24/7, in each of the swing states.

70 days to go to the election and he is hawking digital cards at $99 each. The money doesn't go to the campaign, it goes straight to him.

What a grifter.
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I think he might be throwing the race, so he can run again and keep up the, er, "fund raising".
 
Pretty interesting Harris is going to Georgia - where it looks like she kinda doesn't have a shot. Pretty ballsy imo.
 
Beachryan said:
Pretty interesting Harris is going to Georgia - where it looks like she kinda doesn't have a shot. Pretty ballsy imo.
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How does she not have a shot there? If NC is tied or a Harris lead then Georgia is absolutely in play.

It’s also the future of the Democratic Party, turning AZ, GA and NC into the new VA/CO and attempting to flip TX is their best electoral path, because demographic change in the Midwest + FL doesn’t look pretty.
 
Beachryan said:
Pretty interesting Harris is going to Georgia - where it looks like she kinda doesn't have a shot. Pretty ballsy imo.
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How do you figure she has no chance? The polling average on 538 has Trump with a 0.7% advantage, and it's a state Biden won.
 
Huh, I thought she was trailing Trump by a fair amount there, apologies. Doesn't Trump need GA to have a chance?
 
MrMarcello said:
I think it said 15 gets you a physical card in the mail while all 75 get the dinner invite. I'd wager there will be numpties out there spending thousands they really can't afford. Someone's 65-yr old grandma hoping to get a dinner invite that probably won't happen and running up her credit card debt.
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Yeah you’re right. Man alive.

I suspect it’s probably some tax dodge?
 
Beachryan said:
Huh, I thought she was trailing Trump by a fair amount there, apologies. Doesn't Trump need GA to have a chance?
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Not really. If he takes Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada, while Harris takes Wisconsin, Michigan, and Georgia, Trump could win a slim victory with 271 EC votes. That's just one scenario, of course.
 


Reminder that Gary Johnson got 3X the Jill Stein votes in every swing state in 2016, and that Libertarians cost Trump three states (Wisconsin, Arizona, Georgia) in 2020, and thus the election -without those 3 Biden would be at 269 EVs.

So remember to support your median 3rd party voter to safeguard the future of democracy!
 
Very good week for Harris following the convention. She got about a 2 point bump in the national polls and all the swing states are trending blue today. The next potential polling data points will be the interview on CNN tomorrow night, followed by the debate on 10 Sep. Early voting begins in PA on 16 Sep and Trump's sentencing date for his convictions is 18 Sep, so if Harris goes into the fourth week of Sep with these numbers, she will be in a pretty good shape going into the final stretch.

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Raoul said:
Very good week for Harris following the convention. She got about a 2 point bump in the national polls and all the swing states are trending blue today. The next potential polling data points will be the interview on CNN tomorrow night, followed by the debate on 10 Sep. Early voting begins in PA on 16 Sep and Trump's sentencing date for his convictions is 18 Sep, so if Harris goes into the fourth week of Sep with these numbers, she will be in a pretty good shape going into the final stretch.

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Oooff, that is looking mighty good.
 
Raoul said:
Very good week for Harris following the convention. She got about a 2 point bump in the national polls and all the swing states are trending blue today. The next potential polling data points will be the interview on CNN tomorrow night, followed by the debate on 10 Sep. Early voting begins in PA on 16 Sep and Trump's sentencing date for his convictions is 18 Sep, so if Harris goes into the fourth week of Sep with these numbers, she will be in a pretty good shape going into the final stretch.

GbPNhWT.png
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Wild that Harris is leading North Carolina, which the Dems haven't won since Obama in 2008. Before that you'd have to go back to Jimmy Carter for the last time they won it. It's narrow, but that would really open up a ton of opportunities.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Wild that Harris is leading North Carolina, which the Dems haven't won since Obama in 2008. Before that you'd have to go back to Jimmy Carter for the last time they won it. It's narrow, but that would really open up a ton of opportunities.
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NC is a bit of a surprise, but then again the state is primed for small Dem gains as more people move to larger cities. Also, having Cooper there can't hurt her.

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/north-carolina/
 
Looking at those trends you get the sense that something has to rock the Harris/Walz campaign for them to not win. Primarily because they are actually competent and focused, so they are able to stay on message, whereas the opposition flounders. Their attacks against Harris and Walz either fall flat or are downright offensive, and they have plenty of bad stories to deal with themselves.

I’m increasingly optimistic.
 
Raoul said:
NC is a bit of a surprise, but then again the state is primed for small Dem gains as more people move to larger cities. Also, having Cooper there can't hurt her.

https://www.politico.com/2020-election/results/north-carolina/
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3 other factors:

1. Robinson is a genuine worst case scenario if he becomes governor, so there will be high turnout to keep him out of office (Stein is killing him in the polls)
2. We have a legit good Chair of the state party now. Having lived in WI I can attest to the difference this makes (Winkler turned that state around)
3. We are an insanely gerrymandered state (GOP has veto prof super majorities in both chambers.....in a 50/50 state) and the shenanigans they pulled to grab the house pissed alot of people off.

I'm not saying it is going to flip to Harris, I think we are a cycle or 2 away, but Dem turnout should be high.
 
Mike Smalling said:
Looking at those trends you get the sense that something has to rock the Harris/Walz campaign for them to not win. Primarily because they are actually competent and focused, so they are able to stay on message, whereas the opposition flounders. Their attacks against Harris and Walz either fall flat or are downright offensive, and they have plenty of bad stories to deal with themselves.

I’m increasingly optimistic.
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Its entirely plausible that all of these polls are within the margin of error and are undersampling Trump support, in which case he could win, such as he did in 2016. Also, worth noting that none of the polls can predict how many on each side will actually turn out to vote, which is mildly important given that whichever side has the better GOTV game is almost certainly going to win.
 
WI_Red said:
3 other factors:

1. Robinson is a genuine worst case scenario if he becomes governor, so there will be high turnout to keep him out of office (Stein is killing him in the polls)
2. We have a legit good Chair of the state party now. Having lived in WI I can attest to the difference this makes (Winkler turned that state around)
3. We are an insanely gerrymandered state (GOP has veto prof super majorities in both chambers.....in a 50/50 state) and the shenanigans they pulled to grab the house pissed alot of people off.

I'm not saying it is going to flip to Harris, I think we are a cycle or 2 away, but Dem turnout should be high.
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Yeah I keep forgetting about Robinson. That can't be helpful for the Rs.
 
As Biden showed in 2020 though the Dems will need massive turnout to beat Trump as his base is always fired up. The polls are meaningless to me.
 
Raoul said:
Its entirely plausible that all of these polls are within the margin of error and are undersampling Trump support, in which case he could win, such as he did in 2016. Also, worth noting that none of the polls can predict how many on each side will actually turn out to vote, which is mildly important given that whichever side has the better GOTV game is almost certainly going to win.
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I heard yesterday that, until recently, Trump only had one campaign office in the whole of Pennsylvania.

I think they are scrambling now Harris has entered the race. They thought it was won and were not spending the money, as we all know that any money not spent, would find its way back into Trump's bank account.
 
gaffs said:
I heard yesterday that, until recently, Trump only had one campaign office in the whole of Pennsylvania.

I think they are scrambling now Harris has entered the race. They thought it was won and were not spending the money, as we all know that any money not spent, would find its way back into Trump's bank account.
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The Rs always trail the Ds in terms of how organized they are on the ground. In Trump's case, it probably won't matter that much since a vast majority of his support is already baked in, which allows him to parachute in from time to time to do rallies to improve turnout. Also worth noting that Trump has now magically embraced early voting, so expect more Rs to vote that way this time.
 
Harris sitting down with CNN tomorrow night. Hope she doesn't crash and burn as much as others seem to suggest is inevitable :/ ;)
 
Will be interesting to see what nonsense the right tries to focus on in the interview. Regardless of substance what they wear, any laugh etc. They have to be so beyond perfect compared to any of the horrific displays of nonsense trump/Jd Vance have consistently been putting out in interviews.
 
Beachryan said:
Harris sitting down with CNN tomorrow night. Hope she doesn't crash and burn as much as others seem to suggest is inevitable :/ ;)
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Its unlikely she will given that she's bringing Walz along as a chaperone, which will deflect some of the attention of tough questions asked of her.
 
WI_Red said:
Do we have a CNN talking head on the Caf?

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He's not wrong. Also, if you listen to the entire segment, Astead Herndon's comments at 2:35 are spot on and suggestive all of this is part of a broader Dem strategy to avoid the media and rely more on friendly influencers and podcasters, and in the process, slither through the campaign without having to answer the more difficult questions.

 
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