The pollsters have attempted to correct this. He consistently underperformed his polls during the primaries.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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Also: 2016 wasn’t a normal election, and Comey did his thing at the end.
Just to take the next step, if 51% of a country believed the earth was flat, is that belief any more valid than if 1% of the country believed in it?
My personal opinion is that they are to be laughed at regardless, because its not a serious position.
Back to the US elections and the US electorate, the US senate is not representative of anything, its a super undemocratic institution to the core, and rewards empty lands over people.
At least the republicans won their slim majority more or less fairly in the house, despite underperforming.
In terms of labels, its easier to make that against Sanders, who did have a history of being something of a socialist in his youth, so that label has some truth to it, to be fair.
Nor was 2020 given the pandemic, and nor is this time due to Harris not being elected as the Dem nominee by the people in a competitive primary.
Since when was Trump, an effective communicator on policy? He isn't about policy, there might be written details on the republican side, but he isn't the one to bring them forth, he will just do the usual "my policy great, dem policy terrible"-stick, with next to no details on it.
As far as price controls goes, the Biden administration did that on insulin, as far as i can see, it did not lead to mass shortages on insulin distribution, at least, not according to any headlines i have seen in recent months.
Obviously, price caps all across the board is different, not sure about that one.
Safe to say no election will be "normal " in the sense of it following the norms pre-2016.
There’s no price caps all across the board.
Yes, i know that.
Man is now going after Scorsese (and the Irish I guess).
I'll be fascinated to see which way the polling errors go this time. In 2016 and 2020, I believe there were quite a lot of 'quiet Trump' voters - those moderates who wouldn't admit at a dinner party that they'd vote Trump, but would do at the ballot box.
Then January 6th happened, multiple trials happened (including a civil conviction of f*cking rape in a changing room) and Trump got noticeably older and weirder. I like to think those same people aren't 'hiding' anymore, they're just over the orange one.
I also think by definition polling misses the younger vote, and that the Dems need to be firmly focussed on that. Get back on hammering about student debt relief, first-time home ownership schemes etc.
As ever, the fact that this is close, much less a toss-up is infuriating, but if Dems keep working hard for the next 90 days, we definitely have a shot. And I do not believe the GOP will allow another Trump run, so we can finally move on.
Then January 6th happened, multiple trials happened (including a civil conviction of f*cking rape in a changing room) and Trump got noticeably older and weirder. I like to think those same people aren't 'hiding' anymore, they're just over the orange one.
I also think by definition polling misses the younger vote, and that the Dems need to be firmly focussed on that. Get back on hammering about student debt relief, first-time home ownership schemes etc.
As ever, the fact that this is close, much less a toss-up is infuriating, but if Dems keep working hard for the next 90 days, we definitely have a shot. And I do not believe the GOP will allow another Trump run, so we can finally move on.
I'm not sure the 'shy Trump voter' theory holds up, at least for 2020. Republicans outperformed the polls in general, not just Trump.
I agree that's why I said the above. Since Jan 6th I hope things have shifted. Plus Roe.
If Harris takes NC it will almost certainly be due to the MAGA wing handing Robinson the primary win. Stein is polling better than Cooper did and Cooper is extremely popular here.
Decent enough numbers overall, but its kinda all over the place, with Georgia being to the right of NC, Arizona being to the left of Nevada, that doesn't seem very likely to me.
Back on Twitter for good it seems. This probably means he's going to cash out on Truth Social when his share lockup expires in Oct.
From Silver's site. Looks like Harris' momentum has slowed considerably and Trump has actually managed to make small gains in a few states.
I just don’t believe that people moods change week to week to a point that it can be deducted by a sample of 700-1000 people out of 255 million eligible voters and 170 million registered voters. This is why, statistically, I don’t see a difference between 2.5 and 3 point gap.From Silver's site. Looks like Harris' momentum has slowed considerably and Trump has actually managed to make small gains in a few states.
But, that aside: the weekly changes in this table show that she gained in three crucial states: PA, WI and AZ, as well as in NC. She lost 0.3% in MI but continues to have a 3 point lead there.
Now, she also lost in places like VA, MT, NV and GA. But, she will still likely win VA and lose MT, regardless. NV looks the worst and if GA goes, so be it.
My take is that nothing that is statistically significant has changed since 10:24 pm on Saturday of last week. The statistically significant change is on the last column.
Do you believe moods didn't change in a week from when Biden dropped out and Harris announced her candidacy ? Clearly, opinions can change fairly quickly depending on circumstances.
That’s not a comparable situation at all. You’re talking about a major event.
Yes, but why do you think Harris' momentum wouldn't eventually slow down ? Surely you didn't think it would last indefinitely ?
I am not saying that the momentum wouldn’t slow down. Obviously, at some point, she will reach a ceiling as there are unreachable voters.
My point is about changes in voters’ attitudes in a short period of time based on polls withOUT major events. That’s unlikely.
Besides, as I said in my long post tonight, you can see that she gained ground in some important states while dropped support in some other states. For example, she’s +1.3 in AZ, +1.4 in NC and +0.6 in WI. How to interpret that? Gaining momentum? Some could make that argument.
And then you have gains by Trump, including +1.9 in NV. Losing momentum?
So, which is it? For me, at this stage, no clear pattern. These are just polls and they will swing here and there all the way to the election, barring big events that could tilt the race in one particular direction.
We should look at the trends, and they look good for Harris. How things are going to look a month from now? We shall see.
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RV is +4.
As I’ve said several posts back, it’s just noise. Harris will level out soon but there’s no evidence of Trump clawing back anything besides shit polls by Rasmussen or Trafalgar.
Must have been just after half time.
Rather people don't feel brave enough to sit right behind him the days.
He will argue that it’s AI-generated.
Good numbers for Harris.
And, yes, polls are polls, and we better not over-analyze them week to week. Noise is part of the process with these small samples.
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That's a good poll for Harris. But one poll isn't a trend, and for all we know, it could be an outlier. That's why its a good idea to look at weekly trends that look at all the polls such as the one I posted above from Silver's site which shows Trump has made small gains over the past week in various states as well as nationally. That is strongly suggestive that the Harris honeymoon is over. Although she could regain momentum again after the DNC next week.
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Obviously, there was a limited number of voters who were going to shift either way. Once you gain a good fraction of them, it becomes harder to win more. It’s not about the “honeymoon being over,” but rather the reality of how many truly undecided voters are there.
As I said last night, the numbers from Nate Silver indicate that she continued, this past week, to gain support in multiple critical states. I won’t bore people here by repeating what I wrote there
Also: here’s CNN’s analysis:
https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/18/politics/presidential-election-270-electoral-votes/index.html
Christ, its the Etihad.
Good NYTIMES opinion column on the most controversial topic of Redcafe 2024 U.S. Elections thread: is Donald Trump funny?
I had an old friend who went full on MAGA, pizza-gate psycho. I couldn’t handle his nonsense and blocked him, but he reached out again last week.
It’s taken about 10 messages including catch-ups for him to get into full blown “Kamala win = Communisum, end of freespeech and the introduction of a global AI powered China style surveillance government through WW3
Trump win = end of global Deepstate elite controlled mafia infiltrated into every government, freedom, prosperity, no wars, unlimited possibilities through technologies that are hidden from the public
But haters are going to hate 
”
FFS - blocked again.
It’s taken about 10 messages including catch-ups for him to get into full blown “Kamala win = Communisum, end of freespeech and the introduction of a global AI powered China style surveillance government through WW3
Trump win = end of global Deepstate elite controlled mafia infiltrated into every government, freedom, prosperity, no wars, unlimited possibilities through technologies that are hidden from the public
But haters are going to hate
”FFS - blocked again.
I had an old friend who went full on MAGA, pizza-gate psycho. I couldn’t handle his nonsense and blocked him, but he reached out again last week.
It’s taken about 10 messages including catch-ups for him to get into full blown “Kamala win = Communisum, end of freespeech and the introduction of a global AI powered China style surveillance government through WW3
Trump win = end of global Deepstate elite controlled mafia infiltrated into every government, freedom, prosperity, no wars, unlimited possibilities through technologies that are hidden from the public
But haters are going to hate
FFS - blocked again.
Bear in mind that Harris is leading Trump (by most accounts) before her party's national convention. Trump has already enjoyed (?) the benefit of the convention and the acolytes lining up to kiss his ass on live TV. Trump is currently at the high water mark. Harris has yet to peak.
Unfortunately for Harris, that argument works both ways. She has benefited from a surge of post Biden relief from Dems without ever receiving a single vote in a competitive primary, without giving a single interview, and with only having dropped a bit of policy just the other day.
Once all of that is fully digested, it will give Trump plenty of ammo to fearmonger her numbers down to where the race will be very close within the margin of error.
As much as I would love to believe otherwise, the one time she has received national level consideration from the public, she flopped badly. Unless there is something dramatically different about her now compared to 2020, she is likely to face similar headwinds.
I think this is PTSD from having lived through a Trump administration.
Just like Dems were coming out in force to vote against Trump last time, they will come out in force to vote against Trump this time as well. Except where Biden was losing support among certain demographics, Harris is gaining support. Where Biden's age and competence was turning off young and politically centrist voters, they have been energized to support Harris.
Harris hasn't even started to define the terms of this contest, which will be centered on things like women's health/abortion rights, workers' rights, and the environment.
I honestly am not worried about Harris's last time being unfavorably reviewed. She was fighting in a crowded field of competent and electable politicians who now have all coalesced behind her. They are already acting as her surrogates. There is party unity, none of this hurt PUMA shit (the Party Unity, My Ass Clinton supporters who didn't vote for Obama because Hillary was skipped over), or the alleged Bernie Bro jive (urban legend that the Bernie Bros cost Hillary the election, when in fact Bernie campaigned for her at 11 different rallies and a higher percentage of Bernie supporters voted for her than Hillary supporters voted for Obama).
The final bit to remember is, there is now some false dichotomy at work here, that Harris hasn't been vetted by the American electorate because she hasn't presented her policy proposals for review, when in fact Trump has almost never talked about any policy in terms other than vague approximations. Harris need only make this election about embracing the future - which is joyful, young, free, female, and multicultural - and moving on from the hate-filled Christian nationalist patriarchy/gerontocracy.
Everyone still needs to campaign and canvas and do what they can to help elect Harris, but we are in a better position now than we were when Biden ran in 2020.
If Harris was an inspirational candidate capable of galvanizing people behind her then I would agree with you. But as i said before, the only time she has run, she didn't fare well. And if Biden had withdrawn six months earlier and there was a competitive primary, she would've probably not won it. When you remove the identity politics angle of race and gender from the equation, there's really not much meat on the bone in terms of political acumen, a temperament to lead, or the ability to communicate at a high level such as the likes of Reagan/Clinton/Obama had. What you are left with is someone who was selected as VP to check a box for Biden, and now with Biden's withdrawal, that same person who previously won the veepstakes has now been coronated as the nominee without going through a process. She therefore has all her work ahead of her if she is going to demonstrate why she should be taken seriously at a national level.