The disparity is because MAGA has gradually become more entrenched throughout the red parts of the state, and more importantly because Trump has solidified Republican votes in the state's three biggest Dem counties of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach , particularly among Dade Cubans who although historically Republican, had been drifting more Dem due to a new generation of Cubans with different attitudes coming up. Trump appears to have turned that back around. More broadly, he out performed himself in each of the three counties from 2016 to 2020 and will probably very well again in them this time.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump v Harris
- Thread starter Raoul
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The disparity is because MAGA has gradually become more entrenched throughout the red parts of the state, and more importantly because Trump has solidified Republican votes in the state's three biggest Dem counties of Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach , particularly among Dade Cubans who although historically Republican, had been drifting more Dem due to a new generation of Cubans with different attitudes coming up. Trump appears to have turned that back around. More broadly, he out performed himself in each of the three counties from 2016 to 2020 and will probably very well again in them this time.
He has good and bad moments.
Finkelstein is great.
Trump has to have a Grifting Czar...
It's always projection / confession with this lot...
Re Vance, is Trump going to drop him?
He has garnered nothing but bad headlines since he was announced at Trump's running mate. His interviews with the sunday shows today were poor. His Walz attack is backfiring because servicemen and women know that attacking another, especially one who served for 24 years in the National Guard, is not the done thing. Especially when we are talking about Walz making one verbal mistake, when Trump lies every time he opens his mouth.
The swing in the race has been due to The Dems dropping Biden and running Kamala, but in his warped mind, Trump may not want to admit that Kamala is popular, so may want to blame the guy be brought onto the ticket only days before Trump's swing in fortunes.
And now there is a leaked drag pic, which in the mind of MAGA world, wont "project strength", especially given their campaigns focus on "othering" the Trans community.
I can see Trump dropping him, maybe after the DNC. If only to grab back some of the headlines and pick someone who may actually help with a key voter demographic. Marco Rubio? Tim Scott? Byron Donalds?
He has garnered nothing but bad headlines since he was announced at Trump's running mate. His interviews with the sunday shows today were poor. His Walz attack is backfiring because servicemen and women know that attacking another, especially one who served for 24 years in the National Guard, is not the done thing. Especially when we are talking about Walz making one verbal mistake, when Trump lies every time he opens his mouth.
The swing in the race has been due to The Dems dropping Biden and running Kamala, but in his warped mind, Trump may not want to admit that Kamala is popular, so may want to blame the guy be brought onto the ticket only days before Trump's swing in fortunes.
And now there is a leaked drag pic, which in the mind of MAGA world, wont "project strength", especially given their campaigns focus on "othering" the Trans community.
I can see Trump dropping him, maybe after the DNC. If only to grab back some of the headlines and pick someone who may actually help with a key voter demographic. Marco Rubio? Tim Scott? Byron Donalds?
Dropping him would show an error in judgement, so Trump ain't going to do that. He might get sidelined for the rest of the campaign though.
that's pretty goodI don’t think Vance is going to make a difference either way, so pulling him for some other generic VP would just make Trump look weak.
Maybe, but he did fire half his cabinet and went through press secretaries as fast as he downs diet cokes.
Trump will make Vance fall on his sword, rather than accepting any blame himself.
The only thing the makes me think not, is the Peter Thiel, Heritage Foundation connections. I think they planned for Vance to be next up. Trump was always the "useful idiot" but Vance (they thought) was far smarter and could play a Hillbilly populist well enough for MAGA to accept him as Trump's chosen one, thus allowing Heritage continue to enact their plants into 2025 and beyond.
Probably not. But Trump seems desperate. He staged a press conference Thursday for no reason beyond trying to get back some of the media's attention.
And now he has JD Vance - aka "Hillbilly Ellen Gee", pictured in drag.
We are talking about Trump, who is terrified of even criticising The Prod Boys or the KKK for losing their support. He will see Vance dressed up as "Trailer Swift", and think this not the image of strength that MAGA is all about. No room for any "Dollar Shop Barbies" in MAGA.
Although, maybe Vance was trying to impress Trump by dressing up as his first wife - "Ivana Humpacouch"!!!
Ok, i got four drag names in there!
Your running mate choice is a different kettle of fish to easily changeable staffers and even cabinet picks that serve at the President's pleasure. Vance is his named right-hand man, and successor if Trump wins but drops dead in the next 4 years. Once elected, the VP can only be removed via impeachment. Backing out on your VP pick within weeks of announcing them would be a disaster for any candidate.
But he only hires the best people.... Except everyone he hires he fires or slags off afterwards. Nothing he does will make a difference. His cult followers will defend him no matter what. They are immovable voters,.it may hurt his independent voters but from what we are seeing, I think they are going over to Harris and Walz anyway, so strangely, I think him reorganising and picking a better VP pick could help him.
Happy to take a friendly bet.
What you are saying is all correct, but we are talking about Trump here. Conventional wisdom goes out of the window. He has seen the reboot that The Dems got from dropping Biden - maybe he thinks dropping Vance gives him a shot in the arm. It wont, but i think he is desperate.
Did you read the NYT article at the weekend? Trump is getting grief from his donors re Vance. He is sinking in the polls and has picked a lemon of a VP who we now see dressed at "Patsy ReCliner".
All they have right now is Kamala is too left, she has no policies and she wont do interviews. 2 or those 3 go post the DNC.
I think he drops Vance, if only for the attention and a hail mary.
I agree. I dont think anyone in America has thought "I wasn't going to vote for Trump, but now he has JD Vance (aka Ashley Furniture) on the ticket, i will".
Oh wow. That poster must not have read Hillbilly Elegy. Like the rest of use haven't!
I’ve heard Trump is considering a campaign shake up by bringing Kellyanne Conway back. That’s likely to be the extent of the change especially given that early voting starts in just over a month and the candidate names need to be printed on the mail in ballots. Nothing is of course impossible with Trump, but it isn’t looking likely, especially given that Trump’s problems are related to his own big mouth, not the existence of Vance.
The only way Vance goes is if he drops out for "reasons". Which still doesn't reflect well on Trump and his ego. Plus, who would he pick anyway that would move the needle in his favour? Easier and safer option is to relegate Vance to the background and add a few more dates to the Trump roadshow.
Please tell me they got roasted
I don't think he can add more dates because as I've said, 1. It doesn't matter. And 2. He's clearly struggling so more dates could hurt him. On top of that as he said himself regarding daily press briefings 'you would get sick of me' I think he (or his team) know more won't help. He's not saying anything new, he's just repeating the same he always has. No policies, no new ideas, not even any new attacks or nicknames. In his own words, he's low energy.
As for who he could pick, well I don't think there's anyone, he's backed himself into a corner filled with a toxic pool of cnuts where anyone is either a pathetic sycophant and weak or they are going to be hated by everyone except his MAGA nuts..Ben Carson maybe? Although i'd like him to go full chaos and pick MTG. One thing is for sure with the Vance.pick he's having a much harder time than he did with Pence, who for all his faults didn't have many skeletons in his closet, didn't cause issues or create headlines and just sat obediently in the background next to mummy.
One of youse is supposed to tag me when the real news comes along.
For all the those reasons, the most obvious option is to let Vance fade into the background and be a non-entity.
One of youse is supposed to tag me when the real news comes along.
Not sure if it ever will since she's registered as a foreign agent now for a Ukrainian billionaire now.
Pints paid for anyone in @langster's pub who calls Trump a cnut (specifically, using that word) before the election. Any more than 10 though we'll call it quits
Well that's definitely getting a response from @Dr. Dwayne
He'd do anything for a shake up from Kellyanne.
That's the sensible option, but there's 2 reasons that won't happen.
Firstly, JD just can't shut his mouth because he loves the limelight far too much and loves the sound of his own voice.
Secondly because the press won't leave him alone all the time he keeps feeding them ammo.
I reckon he'd shut up fairly quickly and take a back seat if it means he's elected VP. After that, he can run his mouth and do as he pleases for the next 4 years whilst being untouchable.
The promise of being made head of DFS should be enough to get him onside.
(Joke probably only works in the UK)
There is a sale on now so I hear. He'd be in his element and getting first dibs on the latest bargains!
Right from the anus of Twitter feed into his mouth.
The irony of the orange doofus saying crowd sizes are fake.Biden lost NC by 1.34 pts, ~ 80k votes in 2020.
If their candidate for Gov is doing this badly, maybe there’s a chance?
In jokes? Yes, sure. I mean this is the basic issue with transgressive humor, it has to be risque enough to read as transgressive, but not so risque that it reads as weird. This one is pitched way too far because the people coming up with it are weird internet losers.
On the latest, nice to see Trump losing his mind on Socials as ever. Yes big DJT, Harris used AI to simulate an event covered by every major news source - with cameras - in the world. Pretty advanced stuff. I like that the Harris campaign just hit back with videos. If he's focussed on his ahem, crowd sizes, then the Dems will win. I think JD Vance's days are numbered, as Trump relies on big media shocks to readjust things. Personally I'm terrified for whatever random October surprise they have planned this time. Given it's a female minority candidate, you can bet it'll try to feature sex and illegality. Find some patsy willing to say Harris slept with him in exchange for passing the (second) bar exam or something, only for voters to discover the day after the election that he never even went to law school.
Really interesting stuff in a podcast called 'The Wilderness' where they speak to panels certain demos on various political issues. I think the lessons are good:
- Talking about Trump on issues is pointless. Everyone on both sides has made their mind up. Doesn't matter what his latest crime/statement is. The best attack is to make him seem a buffon and small.
- You can't convince people about Democracy being at stake. It's like climate change, it doesn't work in messaging, it's too nebulous and big.
- Therefore, you focus on specific, easy-to-grasp issues. Abortion. Health care. Child care etc. It's been really successful in getting down-ballot dems elected all over the country
- Turnout is king, so the volunteering, fund-raising and registering efforts are absolutely crucial. Get your crazy Aunt out to vote, or your lazy friend etc. Easiest way to win is to get non-voters to show up.
- They couldn't get decent answers on Project 25 because people thought it was too insane to be real. The panel literally wouldn't believe the policies until they were shown the document itself and read it verbatim. Dems really should keep pushing on this, especially given how tight the Trump campaign is tied to key members of it.
Finally, I was just really encouraged by how plugged in at least those groups are. Gives me some hope the Dems might have a plan that can win. At the moment for me it's still a big toss-up, I think the electoral college is harder for Harris than (a fit and firing) Biden, she's currently on a bump and there will be a 'surprise' that will try to shake the margins. Plus the economy teetering is genuinely worrying.
Really interesting stuff in a podcast called 'The Wilderness' where they speak to panels certain demos on various political issues. I think the lessons are good:
- Talking about Trump on issues is pointless. Everyone on both sides has made their mind up. Doesn't matter what his latest crime/statement is. The best attack is to make him seem a buffon and small.
- You can't convince people about Democracy being at stake. It's like climate change, it doesn't work in messaging, it's too nebulous and big.
- Therefore, you focus on specific, easy-to-grasp issues. Abortion. Health care. Child care etc. It's been really successful in getting down-ballot dems elected all over the country
- Turnout is king, so the volunteering, fund-raising and registering efforts are absolutely crucial. Get your crazy Aunt out to vote, or your lazy friend etc. Easiest way to win is to get non-voters to show up.
- They couldn't get decent answers on Project 25 because people thought it was too insane to be real. The panel literally wouldn't believe the policies until they were shown the document itself and read it verbatim. Dems really should keep pushing on this, especially given how tight the Trump campaign is tied to key members of it.
Finally, I was just really encouraged by how plugged in at least those groups are. Gives me some hope the Dems might have a plan that can win. At the moment for me it's still a big toss-up, I think the electoral college is harder for Harris than (a fit and firing) Biden, she's currently on a bump and there will be a 'surprise' that will try to shake the margins. Plus the economy teetering is genuinely worrying.
There's apparently more to this but I don't care enough to find out if it's true what I saw.