Maybe some, but the main issues were unrelated
Hillary Clinton was negligent towards the rust belt
Kamala Harris is tarred by the 'Biden economy'
2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed
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Maybe some, but the main issues were unrelated
Hillary Clinton was negligent towards the rust belt
Kamala Harris is tarred by the 'Biden economy'
they weren't? he quit in july with months of polls showing him down as much or more in all the states she lost, and he was also losing virginia and NH in some polls (where she has clung on). his approval rating has been sub-40% in all polls including exit polls after the election.
if you're comparing to 2020: covid and trump's handling of it was a big issue, raising questions about his competence, people had disliked having to hear about politics all the time, biden was the most generic politician imaginable, and would presumably fix those issues. in this election, the issues were different - no covid, it was about inflation and immigration. people want to see immigrants in camps, and they want cheaper burgers. they remembered the low inflation and tough rhetoric and actions of trump against migrants, and punished harris (and the biden admin she was part of) for the opposite.
Those were names that whirled around no? After they chose her the funds raised were a lot more than what Biden had at the time.
Harris was unpopular at the time and it was Hillary all over again only worse. She tried to alienate from Biden as far as she could (which made sense, but not made sense choosing her...).
It was a bit like giving it to Giggsy till the end of the season.
You are right naturally that had Biden stepped earlier they could've chosen a lot better candidate, but still Harris was a huge own goal. I mean Trump winning the popular vote is crazy. Dems made a huge mistake for going with Hillary to Bernie and now it's again one of the worst candidates in their history.
Because Biden has been doing a shite job for the past 4 years? Let’s not pretend the outcome would’ve been different if he was still running.
Always the issue with this type of analysis: you don't actually know who people are voting for.
Well, The Undertaker and Kane tombstoned Beyonce and Taylor Swift
Biden was on track to lose quite heavily. Maybe worse than this, though I guess you never know.
Thankfully they've now got Trump in to sort it all out. No more widening of the wealth gap!
It’s definitely counterintuitive the way some of our biggest fears about Trump were destabilising the Middle East and emboldening of Putin, only for all of the above to happen with Biden in charge. So maybe you’re onto something about foreign policy causing long delayed aftershocks? I don’t know enough about this stuff to know if that’s true or not.
The only comfort I have this morning is that it feels like everything that could go wrong already has gone wrong, which takes the edge off any acute fears. I do feel very very sad about the consequences for the environment though. That seems to me by far the biggest downside of a Trump victory.
compared to hillary, kamala barely campaigned on her gender. didn't talk much about "first ___". lost even worse. i don't think this was an idpol campaign. this was a promise-nothing, do-nothing, move-to-the-right campaign. premised on the assumption that people want quiet and normalcy above all else, and wanted to see a united political class. didn't want loud politics 24*7. it was the campaign that worked for labour in 2024 - crucially, labour as an opposition party taking on 14-year incumbency in a faltering economy.
it turns out people were willing to have loud partisan politics if immigrants are rounded up and if prices get lowered, because those priorities are higher.
Well I'm looking forward to Trumps tariffs hitting the MAGA cultists in the pocket. I'm sure they will just blame the Mexicans but at least they got to own the libs right?
People had too much faith in the likes of Selzer and Ralston who were supposed to be the "experts" in their states. When the "experts" like Slezer were saying Harris would win Iowa by 3 which would replicate into a landside win for Harris, people just started to think it was game over for Trump.
Oh there'll be plenty of Schadenfreude to go round regarding the MAGA crowd once they realise their livelihoods will be in the shitter. But like you said, they'll believe the strawman of immigration being the cause of their problems, that ghoul Murdoch will be working overtime to ensure that remains the message.
I think the honour of waking up Joe and giving him the news should be given to Bibi.
The libs owned the libs.
I agree but it’s hard to have a serious conversation about policy. Any progressive policy will need some form of investment (tax) and as soon as that word is mentioned every body loses their minds. When you’ve got billionaires, millionaires and even people on good wages, who won’t be impacted by said tax rise, complaining that it’s unfair, what chance have you got.
It seems like Trump is winning the popular vote by a considerable margin too. Didn't even Hillary beat him in the popular vote?
Utter lunatic country.
Utter lunatic country.
I think what we missed is the intensity and its emotional proximity. A lot of people who aren't political junkies or hyper tuned in news consumers will look at his fans and maybe feel a bit annoyed with how loud they are, but they will think at the same time that Trump can't be that bad if he can inspire such adoration and devotion and people, and they are doubly incentivised to think so if those MAGAs are their family, friends, work colleagues etc. So while they dislike him on a personal level and can be polled as such, when push comes to shove that doesn't disqualify him for them. If 10 people around you are constantly saying the deep state was responsible for J6, Trump is being targeted with lawfare etc, how likely is it that you will research it carefully, instead of shrugging it off or buy into the bs? That dynamic showed up in a lot of voter panels, but we don't want to acknowledge it because it is deeply disturbing that what we consider fatal character flaws simply are not to others.
Joe Biden: "You knobheads"
Who expected Selzer's poll to be gigantically wrong though.
This seems like a very accurate take to me.
I could not agree more, why more people, especially in the States do not care about this is beyond me. The evidence for climate disaster is so clear and now we have a denier in control for the next 4 years, 4 years that could be the most crucial ever for our planet.
CF the response to inheritance tax on wealthy farmers here. Most people just aren't very bright. Something the likes of trump appreciate and play to. Instead we'll have months of dems inquisition where the idea that they need to take the maga crowd more seriously, treat them as grown ups etc will be raised. When it's fact it's the opposite.
Yeah, but I still haven't heard how the Democrat apparatus was supposed to choose one over the other at the time. I honestly don't know. I guess Biden maybe could have handpicked one, but that would have seemed like a betrayal of Harris and very odd.
The other 0.6, 0.4, 0.2% candidates... why even bother to participate?
Not the news I was hoping to wake up to earlier, far from it...
But America is a very big country and Trump has been elected fair and square.
He must now be held to account from day one, and his inauguration will come around quickly.
But America is a very big country and Trump has been elected fair and square.
He must now be held to account from day one, and his inauguration will come around quickly.
A lot of them will soon laugh at our expense.
The world's going to be the first victim of this car crash of an election.
in happier news, i expect my pension and shares portfolio to get a nice boost.
Not his biggest fan, far from it, but wish him a speedy inauguration.
I can’t believe he is going to win the popular vote too 
Was at least fun reading this thread this morning and seeing the moment everyone’s hopes evaporate, I guess.
We are truly in the worst timeline.
Was at least fun reading this thread this morning and seeing the moment everyone’s hopes evaporate, I guess.
We are truly in the worst timeline.
This is all true and I would extend this to most of those who vote for Trump. It’s a clear misunderstanding from the Democrats of what nearly half the country wants or cares about.
It’s weird. Reading this thread, you’d think people had been doing something much more consequential than posting their lay opinions on the current events section of a football forum. I hadn’t realised the Caf held such an elevated position of political power on the world stage.
The death of expertise and the sheer power of perception and vibes. A sad state of affairs but it is what it is.
She's only doing Iowa but it was thought that the same trends would be observed in swing states.
Yep he's been overwhelmingly elected, they need to own this for the next 4 years, they chose him.
I doubt that the US will leave NATO. Whether it will properly support an invasion with active military intervention is a different thing altogether. All I can say is that from what I heard from top quality military people is that Europe is not in shape for a war.
Trump had a worse approval rating than Harris when the votes were cast yesterday. People voted for Trump not because they liked him, but because they thought he would be better for some reason. Those reasons are what we need to think about. My number one culprit is the economy and inflation. The west is so used to low inflation that when inflation that resembles emerging market happens, they are traumatised.
Inflation has subsided but prices are still way above the benchmark people have in their head, which is when Trump was there.
The fact that he was running again made it an easy comparison to make.
No they don’t. What does that even mean? Own this? They need to fight every fecking horrible decision he tries to make.
She beat him by 2.5m votes. Seems like Trump will beat Harris by 5m+ votes which nobody had predicted. He's probably not going to beat his 74m votes from 2020, but Kamala is going to land so massively below Biden's 81m.
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