2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

[oneniltothearsenal]

Every single one of them.

Not sure what you mean by this. You think places that were already a given one way or the other are indicative of who is going to win? Or places with 50% reporting or under?

It's literally still 50-50 at this point

 

[Eboue]

Rachel Maddox breaking news:

we are changing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from Too Early To Call to Too Close To Call.


I hate her so much

 

[Carolina Red]

Thoughts? @Carolina Red

Ffs

 

[Red in STL]

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia
Maybe Iowa

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania - assuming the rest go as expected, is enough for Harris to win

 

[Krakenzero]

I know who the States are, they're plastered everywhere and what they worth in terms of the EC, but what about the other 43 and how they lean?

Based on the results so far I get the picture the swing states are more important to the democrats than to the republicans.

23 go to republicans, 20 to democrats.

Biggest ones are CA (D), TX (R), FL (R) and NY (D).

 

[altodevil]

Not sure what you mean by this. You think places that were already a given one way or the other are indicative of who is going to win? Or places with 50% reporting or under?

It's literally still 50-50 at this point

Yes because it indicates a state/national swing

 

[Enigma_87]

It's not a 10 point swing, Biden won by 10.1%.

The NC call by Decision Desk is kinda insane, btw, similar to the Arizona Fox call. They might well be right, but so many suburbs still outstanding and almost nothing from Charlotte.

yeah it's premature no doubt. Harris should take it at the end but it's crazy close.

 

[DarkLord1984]

So if you're based in say, Texas - you can expect that your state will vote Republican every single election?

And is this based entirely from the population that lives there because the majority will always vote Republican?

Republican candidates are just always going to be more popular in that particular state? Or are there other factors at play?

 

[Morty_]

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania - assuming the rest go as expected, is enough for Harris to win

Think she loses PA, and that's the race.

 

[Laurencio]

So are people getting their panties in a twist or are we actually fecked? I remember Biden being down by tons and then just surging ahead as the major population centers came in. We aren’t expecting something similar?

I don't see a significant reason to panick.

 

[Utd heap]

So if you're based in say, Texas - you can expect that your state will vote Republican every single election?

And is this based entirely from the population that lives there because the majority will always vote Republican?

Republican candidates are just always going to be more popular in that particular state? Or are there other factors at play?

This isn't unusual in loads of countries?

If you live in Salford (me), Labour will win your area - every single time.

 

[Enigma_87]

Not sure what you mean by this. You think places that were already a given one way or the other are indicative of who is going to win? Or places with 50% reporting or under?

It's literally still 50-50 at this point

I'm not sure about that. Trump is doing better than all projections in all of the swing states so far.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

I know who the States are, they're plastered everywhere and what they worth in terms of the EC, but what about the other 43 and how they lean?

Based on the results so far I get the picture the swing states are more important to the democrats than to the republicans.

Broadly speaking the Dems have upper northeast Virginia and above, the west coast and Illinois and Minnesota around the Great Lakes. Republicans have the south and rural middle of the country. On mobile so not going to type specific states.

 

[JagUTD]

Important to both sides because it swings elections. The electoral count of the other 40+ states aren’t enough to win the election respectively.

Democrats need 44 electoral votes from swing states, Republicans 51. This time at least. So they are more important to Republicans this time round.

This is what I was looking for. Thanks!

So basically the real score right now is

D - 225
R - 218

?

 

[amolbhatia50k]

188-99 now. Madness

 

[altodevil]

This is what I was looking for. Thanks!

So basically the real score right now is

D - 225
R - 218

?

226 - 230

 

[Abizzz]

188-99 now. Madness

Everyone would be so much more relaxed if the sun rose in the west.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

I'm not sure about that. Trump is doing better than all projections in all of the swing states so far.

Im not sure how anyone can check that. For instance, Harris is up 5% in Penn with less than 50% reporting so not sure how anyone can objectively say he's doing better. Plus we have a number of issues that are going to delay things from urban voters.

 

[Krakenzero]

Updated report:

NC - Trump leading by 5%, with 64% in.
GA - Trump leading by 5%, with 79% in.
PA - Harris leading by 2%, with 37% in.
MI - Harris leading by 6%, with 15% in.
WI - Harris leading by 3%, with 30% in.

No surprises yet.

 

[Brwned]

One of my coworkers today said she still hadn’t decide who to vote for on her way to the ballot box. I know that a lot of coworkers are Trump supporters and that’s tragic, but at least I can kind of wrap my head around the fact they just have completely different priorities, sense of morality, etc. But I can’t make sense of how someone can be unsure…

 

[JagUTD]

This isn't unusual in loads of countries?

If you live in Salford (me), Labour will win your area - every single time.

Many areas of the UK flipped only a few years ago and has now flipped back. It will almost certainly flip again based on the travesty that is the current Labour party... In fact, given the travesty that is the Tory party, flipping may become the norm.

 

[altodevil]

Updated report:

NC - Trump leading by 5%, with 64% in.
GA - Trump leading by 5%, with 79% in.
PA - Harris leading by 2%, with 37% in.
MI - Harris leading by 6%, with 15% in.
WI - Harris leading by 3%, with 30% in.

No surprises yet.

None of that means anything

 

[Morty_]

If i have learned anything, it is that exit polling means nothing at all.

I guess democracy being top ranked actually means republicans answering that, but really means they don't want dems to "rig" more elections against them, or something.

 

[RDCR07]

Rachel Maddox breaking news:

we are changing Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from Too Early To Call to Too Close To Call.


I hate her so much

I lost all respect for her when she supposedly “found” Trump tax return back in 2016 only to show just the first two pages which didn’t do shit.

 

[Redplane]

Updated report:

NC - Trump leading by 5%, with 64% in.
GA - Trump leading by 5%, with 79% in.
PA - Harris leading by 2%, with 37% in.
MI - Harris leading by 6%, with 15% in.
WI - Harris leading by 3%, with 30% in.

No surprises yet.

Qft. I know there was some reason to believe GA and NC are/were in play but I think we re still another term or two from having that come to fruition

 

[sullydnl]

One of my coworkers today said she still hadn’t decide who to vote for on her way to the ballot box. I know that a lot of coworkers are Trump supporters and that’s tragic, but at least I can kind of wrap my head around the fact they just have completely different priorities, sense of morality, etc. But I can’t make sense of how someone can be unsure…

Assuming she actually doesn't know, rather than knowing but not wanting to say.

 

[RDCR07]

188-99 now. Madness

Again it’s not. They are both literally taking the states they are supposed to take SO FAR.

 

[ManUtd1999]

GA: Harris is doing better in some counties and worse in others (relative to 2020).

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

A lot of dooming going on with Harris underperforming Scranton Joe by 3 points in his home county....

 

[altodevil]

NYT now projecting a 1.5pct lead for Trump in PA. It's ogre.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

I lost all respect for her when she supposedly “found” Trump tax return back in 2016 only to show just the first two pages which didn’t do shit.

2 pages from Trump's 2005 tax returns

 

[SinNombre]

I think Trump odds of winning the popular vote has probably gone up to 30% at this point.

He has gained a lot of votes in the big cities from Miami to Houston to New York.

 

[Red in STL]

Im not sure how anyone can check that. For instance, Harris is up 5% in Penn with less than 50% reporting so not sure how anyone can objectively say he's doing better. Plus we have a number of issues that are going to delay things from urban voters.

Trends are suggesting that Trump is doing better in rural areas than expected

They also suggest that Harris is doing better in college towns and around [ar or slightly better in large suburban areas

PA, NC and GA are going to be pretty close either way

 

[Raoul]

GA: Harris is doing better in some counties and worse in others (relative to 2020).

Believe I heard John King just say Trump was leading by 250k at this time in 2020 and wound up losing GA.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

Yes because it indicates a state/national swing

I don't see much to really indicate a swing yet. By that i mean something decisive. Could just be CNN i guess. Happy to hear some specific results that really indicate something surprising

 

[JagUTD]

226 - 230

Either way, Trump is about to hit his expected EC numbers and will flatline until the swingers start swinging

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

GA: Harris is doing better in some counties and worse in others (relative to 2020).

Yes, most of the rurals she's doing worse in, but in some exurbs like Forsyth and Fayette she's running about 2 points ahead.

 

[Mickeza]

NYT now projecting a 1.5pct lead for Trump in PA. It's ogre.

Predicting he wins Wisconsin too.

 

[Raoul]

Wow....PA is very close right now.

 

[prateik]

Trump ahead in PA now.. i know 50% still to go...