Needle man has Harris +0.1 at present. Not great!
2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed
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Trump is outperforming his own last two campaigns whilst Harris is underperforming Biden. This is literally across the entire board with one or two exceptions. The way the EC works means it isn't over yet but it is heavily in Trump's favour as of now.
Trump is outperforming his own last two campaigns whilst Harris is underperforming Biden. This is literally across the entire board with one or two exceptions. The way the EC works means it isn't over yet but it is heavily in Trump's favour as of now.
I've been Harris all month, but if you asked me now Trump has this.
Long way to go. But not good.
Long way to go. But not good.
Kornacki is good and I want to watch him but McCaskill is such an evil loser freak. Go away witch!
83% votes in. Trump leading by 220k in GA.. less than a million votes to count.
NC won't be pretty close, I think.
Philly and suburbs only about 25% counted. Expect her to get big bump once they come in. Trump will also benefit from more results in rural counties.
Well he's taking GA and NC almost certainly now.
He's tied in PA with 41% counted and projections seems to go in his favor
Just took the lead in WI (35%) counted
MI it's again incredibly close and after 60% in Virginia he's leading at the moment which is a Dem stronghold.
Definitely possible, but it was just something she threw out there herself. I don’t ask anyone who they vote for but it seems to be a widely understood unspoken reality that most of them are Trump supporters. If I’d asked her who is she supporting I can get why she’d be shy about Trump! But she just threw it out there voluntarily that she really can’t decide which way to go. She might think that makes me think better of her but…not remotely!
CBS had Trump 51-49 in their projection but still not calling due to the overlap
Trump only needs 150k votes in GA whilst Harris needs like 500k. I've called that on my map an hour ago.
I'm calling it now, I think he's won it. And comfortably
I think GA and NC will go Trump. It's those three upper midwest that make the difference. I did just hear a VA update that seemed surprising but without knowing which areas are reporting hard to really tell if it means much.
Well, yes. If you think votes are being rigged and elections stolen, that is a huge threat against democracy. Few threats are bigger! That's a very obvious interpretation of that exit poll, along with what Democratic voters think Trump/Republicans will do.
The BBC's US partner CBS News is projecting that Republican Tim Sheehy will defeat Democratic Senator Jon Tester in Montana.
This result would give Republicans their second flip of the night, potentially handing them a majority in the Senate - if they do not lose any seats they currently hold.
This result would give Republicans their second flip of the night, potentially handing them a majority in the Senate - if they do not lose any seats they currently hold.
Re: North Carolina - Mecklenburg County (Charlotte) has only reported 19% among 850k voters in the county. Will be a big bump for Harris once they get added into the system.
So bizarre that his vote percentage has increased when just four years ago he attempted to destroy American democracy and steal an Election.
Utter madness.
Utter madness.
Yeah, but only one of them is a actually true, but we live in a post-truth era, so.
Problems counting in NC so might not get the answer till closer to midnight.
And it's flipped, NYT now at Trump +0.3 in popular vote estimate.
Hoping your prediction was as off as your user name
The CBS stream is on YouTube for anyone outside the US. The only major network I could find anyway and as above, it's the BBCs US partner
If he wins VA, the game is up. Literally impossible for them to win after that. Even if they take all the northern blue states. Trump wins AZ (by this performance metric) and that's that.
But it was always this to me: Harris just needed to do more punching. She had to hit three to four states which are all tossups (or given as such - the north, mostly, I never gave her a chance down south in GA or NC), whilst Trump only needed one.
Yep.
Oh well, back to 4 years of right wing crazy shit.
Trump now expected to win the popular vote. That would be something..
Yeah but it matters where those votes are outstanding. At least a third of it is from one democratic stronghold of Giwennett county.
Crazier*
Well things shifted a bit in the 30 minutes since I came on the Caf. Maybe I should log out for a bit since it seems to have swung a little since then
What network is the best to watch for this?
I’m still confident about VA.
Be very funny if he wins it but she scrapes home anyway.
This is definetly a Trump hour.
It flipped in 2020 but christ the numbers are bleak.
It flipped in 2020 but christ the numbers are bleak.
CNN or MSNBC.
Game over. Will probably have to watch him dancing to the tunes of YMCA before long.
That's not really relevant when the question is if exit polls mean anything. Your problem seems to be with Trump supporters, not the polls.
It'd be like complaining about exit polls mentioning abortion, just because pro-life voters are answering questions as well.
Another reminder that people don't just vote on policy. They also vote on tribal identity and emotion.
I own a Japanese import that's also very loud. It's technically the hubby's but what his is mine.
aye you'd expect her to win but the fact that a 92-8 (the percentage of polling agg given to her) is now 50-50 with 70% of votes in is indicative of the entire election. Whether he wins or loses that state. It would be like Trump losing Florida. I didnt see a single pollster of any affiliation predicting this.
Oh this time it has the likelihood of being far, far worse.
But she spent spent plenty of time in those states, she did not run a Hillary-campaign.
If she loses, the electorate just really wanted "Dear Leader" back, not much she could have done about it.
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