ThierryHenry
wishes he could watch Arsenal games with KM
I agree with all of that. And it's even more the case that this is silly analysis given how much the President's power on domestic issues is so heavily diluted.But the reasons for that are so obvious, and so clearly not caused by the administration.
A lot of times it’s difficult to parse out the role of the administration on economic performance. Trump in 2017 says the economy’s great and I’m responsible for it. Biden says the economy’s great and I’m responsible for it. The opposition points out that the economy’s just continuing on the trajectory that was set by their predecessor. There’s some truth in both and it’s all a bit messy. It’s reasonable in that scenario that voters just choose an economic story to believe rather than try to make sense of reality.
In this case the casual factors were so well documented - mandatory economic stimulus during the pandemic, supply shocks from the pandemic, Russian oil and gas prices - and the effect was so clearly not unique to the US, that it’s not reasonable for US voters to think I’m worse off because of this government.
Maybe it’s a stretch to ask them to compare US performance to Europe at that time and recognise they’re doing better in keeping inflation lower and brining it down earlier, while seeing employment grow quicker, wages grow further and their 401ks go much higher. Or to compare themselves to China and see a more stable economy with significantly better employment opportunities over the same time.
That might be a stretch to have them look beyond their own country. But there’s really no excuse for them to think that I’m worse off because of this government. That’s just lazy.
My point was more... people are simple. Inflation has been a major drag on standards of living over recent years. It wouldn't be a surprise in any country for incumbents to take a big hit in that scenario, and we've seen that almost everywhere.
In turn, (IMO) Harris has then run a relatively poor campaign to this end, by not distancing herself in any meaningful way from the Biden administration. Admittedly... that's then an incredibly difficult strategy given her role, and why the Dems were put in a shit position by Biden not stepping down earlier and allowing a more open contest.