2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

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Nate Silver was touching on this the other day, basically saying how much harder it is for polls to gauge currently.

I actually think pollsters are being overly generous to Trump, in part due to the last 2 elections and due to the fact many are right-leaning.
Problem as I see it is that pretty much all news coverage in the US is extremely biased for one side or the other, I mean you can flip between channels and get radically different reports on the same stories, I have a problem with British TV news media becoming less impartial, the BBC should play it down the middle but they have unfortunately become less reliable in recent years, especially news night, however they are a million miles away from what I see on American TV, I mean the absolute lies and propaganda on both sides of the media are beyond disgusting, as somebody looking from outside the US I find it hard to watch, it is so bad, so obviously bad, it is destructive and manipulative, I honestly do not know how any American can stomach it, moreover it is so dangerous, it is easy to see how the populace is stirred up to civil unrest when the media fuels this circus.
 
Polls have proven to be almost pointless in recent history.

and vibes and personal stories of the "I saw 10 candidate X signs in my street alone" kind are even more pointless.

We have nothing then, so again no justification for some posters here talking with such confidence.
 
Harris will take Georgia. I was in Atlanta airport when the news broke about trump being shot, and the reaction was very muted, definitely not a diehard stronghold.

Picking how 5million people will vote based upon reactions from a few people at the airport, is a quite a leap.

This is perhaps one of the worst polls we have seen this election!
 
I never used "definitely" and I'm sure no pollster would either. No statistician can use that word. In fact, the essence of polling is probabilistic.
"If they show 50/50, it is 50/50."

The underlying motives of the pollsters, subjective corrections to their models, and herding means that this isn't the case.
 
Picking how 5million people will vote based upon reactions from a few people at the airport, is a quite a leap.

This is perhaps one of the worst polls we have seen this election!
Haha exactly and what were they supposed to do in an airport? Go up in arms? Protest? Refuse to board the plane?
 
Can totally see Trump celebrating victory tonight even in defeat.
He will certainly declare victory, likely far earlier than any sort of results can be properly estimated like last time. Whatever else they have lined-up to disrupt the results should they go against them then Trump's early declaration is guaranteed.
 
Can totally see Trump celebrating victory tonight even in defeat.

We are going to see GA and NC report early/mail in ballots before 9pm EST, maybe earlier. If they are looking good for Trump, he will call the election won, despite no results coming from MI, PA, WI, AZ or NV. He may even call it if they dont look good for him.

I think Harris needs to get in front of this and be on TV beforehand to tell the country that Trump will do this.
 
With the way Milwaukee counts their early vote ballots, I fully expect MAGa to do something there.
 
"If they show 50/50, it is 50/50."

The underlying motives of the pollsters, subjective corrections to their models, and herding means that this isn't the case.
Their post was better than 99% of posts in this thread. You are taking too literally one aspect of their post.
 
Problem as I see it is that pretty much all news coverage in the US is extremely biased for one side or the other, I mean you can flip between channels and get radically different reports on the same stories, I have a problem with British TV news media becoming less impartial, the BBC should play it down the middle but they have unfortunately become less reliable in recent years, especially news night, however they are a million miles away from what I see on American TV, I mean the absolute lies and propaganda on both sides of the media are beyond disgusting, as somebody looking from outside the US I find it hard to watch, it is so bad, so obviously bad, it is destructive and manipulative, I honestly do not know how any American can stomach it, moreover it is so dangerous, it is easy to see how the populace is stirred up to civil unrest when the media fuels this circus.

The only reason for this is because the right (Fox News) are so biased, that they make the likes of CNN, ABC, NBC look far left leaning in comparison.
 
With the way Milwaukee counts their early vote ballots, I fully expect MAGa to do something there.

Aparently they get moved to a counting location and wont gen announced until late. There is going to be all kinds of conspiracy around this as it will look like Trump is leading and Harris will later catch him when the Milwaukee count comes in.

The Republican state senate dont want to count early and mail in ballots early, like Florida does. I wonder why?
 
"If they show 50/50, it is 50/50."

The underlying motives of the pollsters, subjective corrections to their models, and herding means that this isn't the case.
Dude, check my original post. I'm not defending polls, I'm attacking sentimental evidence.

Fine, polls suck, then we have nothing to justify the confidence that some seem to display here.
 
Picking how 5million people will vote based upon reactions from a few people at the airport, is a quite a leap.

This is perhaps one of the worst polls we have seen this election!
Lets revisit once Georgia declares
 
Polls have proven to be almost pointless in recent history.
They weren't pointless, but in wonderful US electoral system vast majority of elections don't matter, the aggregate doesn't matter and every election cycle the only ones that do are the ones that have extremely thin margins.
 
Well Trump is always obsessed about this rally sizes but it turns out Harris’ rallies are way more crowded than his. I think her record was 75,000 which is much more than he has had this cycle.

Harris does like a few rally. Trump has been doing them non stop.

It's normal if it's not as crowded as it was, people got bored after a while. Doesnt mean they stop voting for him
 
They weren't pointless, but in wonderful US electoral system vast majority of elections don't matter, the aggregate doesn't matter and every election cycle the only ones that do are the ones that have extremely thin margins.

Poll isnt useless. But i doubt even half of the recent "poll" are actually "polled" rather than some dude making bogus survey of 10 people and calling it the "poll"
 
Lets revisit once Georgia declares

You may be right - you have a 50/50 chance after all!!!

But it feels about as scientific as those videos of dogs picking the World Cup Final winner...

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Hearing talk that Trump is looking stronger than ever in Florida and might improve on his 2020 margins. Not sure what that says about the rest of the country.
 
I'm guessing when this thread reaches page 666 it will dawn upon us that Trump is going to win...
 
If Kamala does win I think the Dems will look to pardon Trump for all his misdemeanours as a gesture of 'good will' and bridging the divide. Which would be wasteful really, the Republicans definitely wouldn't reciprocate in the reverse scenario, and will continue being as rabid as ever.

Will never happen but I sincerely hope they throw the book at all of the MAGA cronies, Trump, Musk, all the nefarious feckers who took part in the little fascist tour.
 
Hearing talk that Trump is looking stronger than ever in Florida and might improve on his 2020 margins. Not sure what that says about the rest of the country.
It’s a retirement home, it’s only going to get redder.
 
Harris does like a few rally. Trump has been doing them non stop.

It's normal if it's not as crowded as it was, people got bored after a while. Doesnt mean they stop voting for him
Never said he lost support cause of rally size. The original post was asking why this obsession over rally size.
 
Hearing talk that Trump is looking stronger than ever in Florida and might improve on his 2020 margins. Not sure what that says about the rest of the country.
Good thing it’s not a swing state. It was always going to be red and it’s getting even more republican leaning for the foreseeable future.
 
@Raoul they definitely randomize candidate positions in California per ballot. I had RFK listed first and Trump on first page with Harris last and have to click More to show her name.
 
Hearing talk that Trump is looking stronger than ever in Florida and might improve on his 2020 margins. Not sure what that says about the rest of the country.
Madness. They brainwashed all them seniors over there. Miami needs to step up. The thing is I don't understand how immigrants are still voting for this man. Makes no sense. The women also. He hates every one of them.
 
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