Everyone Lean Back!
2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed
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If she’s wrong by 7, Trump wins Iowa by 4, right?
Caitlin Clark should vote for Harris today and tweet it
Selzer actually has never gotten the actual vote share for the leader in her poll off. Both Kerry 04 and Hubbel 2018 both got what she gave them and more. Even if Trump wins it 52-47 that’s still a good result.
They have an article this morning explaining how it works.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/election-2024-results-needle.html
Oh, in the story there's the specific quote about the strike and implications:
What British time would an estimated result be known?
They have an article this morning explaining how it works.
https://www.nytimes.com/article/election-2024-results-needle.html
Don't know how it would affect their service, but from what I gather they are suggesting people turn to alternative platforms for coverage. If they run the coverage without tech support it's very vulnerable to high traffic or DDOS attacks.
I live in a blue state. I’m convinced Trump is winning.
It’s going to be tomorrow for you guys to get a result.
That’s because the leader in her final poll tend to be under 50. She had 47-44 this week, meaning 9% undecided or third party. Both can grow from their respective numbers.
Have they opened it up to all, or is it for subs only ?
Or: Troubling that the NY Times would try to block this public service by literally waiting months to negotiate with the union.
Anyways, I vote we allow New York Times Pitchbot to create all the NYT's Election Day coverage.
When does sitting president son or even aides ever get caught of corruption from foreign state?
Unless they're all clean as a whistle or they're all crooked
When you wake up tomorrow morning
You should know by the end of January
Yeah but there’s millions more genZ now eligible to vote since previous elections. And Kamala is miles ahead with the younger voter.
Because Trump is obssessed with crowd sizes
Polls are also not very good at gauging the success of GOTV campaigns and who actually turns out to vote. Trump voters, despite not always being candid with pollsters on who they support, do tend to show up to vote for Trump in elections when he's actually on the ballot. Therefore Harris' GOTV game simply needs to be superior to make any slight polling advantage she has meaningful.
Knowing it and proving it in a court of law are 2 different things, othetrwise his father-in-law would have been jail already.
I very much doubt he'll be involved this time, he;s not taken part do far and TBH his wife would probably kill him if he suggested they move back to Washington
Harris will take Georgia. I was in Atlanta airport when the news broke about trump being shot, and the reaction was very muted, definitely not a diehard stronghold.
i'd say around the time the news of riots and civil unrest starts filtering through
Well Trump is always obsessed about this rally sizes but it turns out Harris’ rallies are way more crowded than his. I think her record was 75,000 which is much more than he has had this cycle.
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I think this is true to Trump's core support, but when it comes to the demographics he likely needs to swing key states it's less obvious this time round. Conversely, Harris' target demographics for the same states tend to be the ones more likely to come out and vote.
Atlanta is a hub airport meaning you get loads of people just passing through. I would not take any airport as a representation of the local population.
Most of the people in there are still probably from Atlanta (I was in departures) ... Maybe The whole reaction was indicative of the country too, perhaps.
Same thing would apply if it had been in a restaurant in Atlanta. Harris will obviously win Fulton County big.
Atlanta airport is the busiest in the world, and the vast majority of the passengers are from out of state, indeed a a sizeable % are not even from the US
Yeah, fair point, albeit you'd think they'd be less open about things running the biggest country in the world etc.
Yeah, fun being wealthy and being surrounded by wealthy people, I guess. Thanks bud.
It's more than the crowd he got on Jan 6th. His inauguration was about 300-600k which is very average. If Harris wins I think there's a fair chance she gets as much as Obama in 2009 (1.8m)
I notice many are talking with confidence about the outcome when the polls show a different story.
Polls are the best evidence we have. If they show 50/50, it is 50/50.
If the polls are inaccurate, then no one really knows what's gonna happen. Personal stories, vibes, and gut feelings are not as reliable as math and logic; they often reflect biases rather than genuine knowledge.
Even if you turn out to be right, that doesn’t validate your sentimental methods; it’s simply a case of outcome bias.
Polls are the best evidence we have. If they show 50/50, it is 50/50.
If the polls are inaccurate, then no one really knows what's gonna happen. Personal stories, vibes, and gut feelings are not as reliable as math and logic; they often reflect biases rather than genuine knowledge.
Even if you turn out to be right, that doesn’t validate your sentimental methods; it’s simply a case of outcome bias.
It seems that Trump supporters are assured he will win big and the polls are underestimating him while Harris supporters believe she will win comfortably too.
Some concerning morning indicators....lineups at Buck County and some other places are appearing overwhelmingly male.
This is absolutely not true. Significant polling errors are a stable of US elections.
Looks pretty mixed based on social media accounts.
..and polls with their errors are again, relatively speaking, the best tool we have. What other methods can one resort to? vibes?
If I could like this post I would.
The polls are actually slightly favoring him, or we can say it is 50/50.
Polls, early voting, actions and statements by the campaigns, reporting from the ground, etc. A variety of things. But to say that polls saying 50-50, meaning it is definitely 50-50 is just wrong.
Polls have proven to be almost pointless in recent history.
I think that its quite hilarious that Silver has been saying it is a tied race for months, then all of a sudden, a couple of days before the election, tells us that the pollsters have been herding all along...
https://www.natesilver.net/p/theres-more-herding-in-swing-state
He is essentially saying, don't blame me or my model if Im way off.
If Harris wins, im looking forward to seeing Allan Lichtman dance all over him!
I never used "definitely" and I'm sure no pollster would either. No statistician can use that word. In fact, the essence of polling is probabilistic.
MO, TX and FL are suing to bar DoJ poll watchers from polling stations.
They will lose due to the Supremacy Clause, but this is a new level of shamlessness. Guaranteed there are a feck ton of voter intimidation and other shenanigans going on in those places.
They will lose due to the Supremacy Clause, but this is a new level of shamlessness. Guaranteed there are a feck ton of voter intimidation and other shenanigans going on in those places.
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