Except it hasn’t grown… as the mooch said, if anything it’s regressing and we have record voter turn out.
2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed
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Correct me if I'm wrong but I think betting companies don't have to set the quotas according to the odds of the outcome they calculated. Even if their internal calculations also suggest a Harris win, it might be more profitable for them to give Trump a lower odd in order to draw in more betters.
I wouldn’t believe the polls on this. Polls never fully capture his base.
His base isn't enough for him to win.
Those perceptions are starting to fade. It helps when the DOW goes from 20k to 42k under Biden.
Yeah but you’re discounting the rich republicans who will also vote for him cause they terrified of taxes going up but give you the bullshit excuse of “open border”. Like my uncle. He lives is NC. He is a millionaire. Spoke to him and he said he is voting Trump. He goes on to argue that he is not voting for trump, he is voting for the Republican apparatus around him. This is the stupidity that people say to themselves to justify voting for an orange buffoon of a fascist. He is well educated as well. Polls don’t capture these types of people.
Bit off the mark here aren't we?
In my opinion it's the difference between edited news which nearly always contains some bias, (even if unintended) because it's a function of the need to edit, to fit an allotted time slot in prime time; whereas just the reporting of headline news tends just to report the facts.
You are right that the BBC often does contain some bias in it's main reports e.g in the morning, which by evening have usually been adjusted, so the reports are slightly different. I've found that watching Newsnight does take the major elements of the days news and looks at this in more detail, using a panel of guests who it is assumed know something about such issues; however, I wouldn't describe it as being entertaining more of an explanation, and in some cases giving a reaction.... which admittedly can sometimes be classified as entertainment.
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The poll has this question:
Who did you vote for in the 2020 presidential election between Donald Trump and Joe Biden,or did you not vote?
| Donald Trump | 35.1% |
| Joe Biden | 58.8% |
They drastically oversampled Biden voters, clearly, as the actual result was 52-45.
Trump is going to lose today, and its gonna be huge.
What's the deal with the "look how many were / weren't at this rally?"
TL, DR: regardless of what happens, his career is over.
People turn to people like him, rightly or wrongly, for predictions. Nobody’s gonna bother with ‘my analysis is about as useful as random chance’
What's the deal with the "look how many were / weren't at this rally?"
The same principle when we highlight the empty seats at the Etihad
The same principle when we highlight the empty seats at the Etihad
Good news for accelerationists.
Fabrizio Romano to call the election minutes after everyone else and call it an exclusive.
Hopefully he doesn't miss the chance to call the Wisconsin results with "Here WI go!""
It annoys him and makes him look inadequate, so it's important (and fun) to press that point as many times as we can.
Highlighting a very likely lack of enthusiasm for Trump, which also seems to be backed up by polls. This is not 2016 Trump.
If the Selzer poll was worth a damn, why the hell can I still get 6 to 1 odds on Kamala winning it?
Very random question, but why were people like Jared Kushner never investigated for corruption - i.e. using the powers of the presidents office to solicite business for himself/his investment firm? The little I read/know about it, didn't he get a ton of investment from the Saudis etc? I can't really believe all those things were above board, but I guess this is how the wealthy operate, with little to no oversight. Would be one of those extremely irritating things having to see his fecking mug over the news again if Trump wins. But I doubt he'd have any interest in joining Trumps team again, but who knows.
On her electoral college vote margin? I don’t think you get higher than 10/4 on winning outright.
The simplest answer is markets without cap (850 on PredictIt) is easily manipulated, or full of crypto bros betting on vibes.
Yes. What exactly he told us in this whole cycle that we couldn’t see by just looking at polls (or early voting starting October for people like me). On Election Day, he shows us 50-50. Wow. I didn’t know that.
Agreed.
Americans have already fecked up by not putting the bracelets on Trump in January 2021.
I'm well aware of how betting markets work. 20 minutes ago I could get nearly $500 matched at 5.5 odds on smarkets. That's a big liability if the Selzer poll was anywhere close to accurate.
I am hoping you are actually a pope with that username, because we may need you this week.
As far as i know they dont take part in gambling against one or the other. They set the starting odds and algorithm take charge.
They only profit from the spread
Stick to football alto
Let’s put it this way, Biden went to $5 when Florida result came in on election night 20 from 7/4.
The market isn’t rational, I’d take that odd if I were you. I went in at 2.75 myself.
I live in a red state. People seem convinced Trump is winning this.
Who is ready for the 2024 iteration of NY Times' Needle induced anxiety?
Just trying to preemptively double my dynasty winnings
its all very pointless at this stage, they can show as many half empty arenas as they want. It aint deterring Trump or MAGA. This election is going to be uncomfortably close no matter what
I'm tempted. The overall odds for a sweep look high for republicans too, given our friend Nate's tossup prediction.
Is your username a play on DFW's IJ?
Their tech guild is on strike, very likely we don’t get the needle this year.
I am making Vatican Garden Supplies ltd available free of charge to the Trump team as a venue for their concession speech.
It's totally reasonable to expect that a polling error in Trump's favour is coming, it's my fear too. I'm clinging to the Selzer poll being a bellwether for the country as my cope though. She's only ever been off by 7 points at worst and that would still be a poor result for Trump in Iowa.
It’s a lame word play on inbox, I was an emo teenager when I made this account 12 years ago
Can’t believe that are there again… with Trump for the 3rd straight time!
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