2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed

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Shinjch said:
The general positivity in here and some of the commentariat still can't shake the feeling that Trump will win. Hope it is just my usual pessimism.
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I’m counting on him to win. The two previous elections had him way behind in the polls and he ended up winning and loosing by a fraction.
 
mariachi-19 said:
Previous polls have feck all to do with this election. They’ve redone them to consider how they fecked up the last two elections
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Nate Silver was touching on this the other day, basically saying how much harder it is for polls to gauge currently.

I actually think pollsters are being overly generous to Trump, in part due to the last 2 elections and due to the fact many are right-leaning.
 
Yeah, couple of things to address here.
  • Pollsters had severe cases of egg on their faces after 2016 and 2020. It's likely that polling has been adjusted to counter this issue. We might even have a case of midterms 2022 where Dems overperformed their polling.
  • Abortion is literally on the ballot in many states, and it remains an important issue for most Americans. About 10 million more women than men cast their votes in the General Election, and women lean more towards Harris.
  • High reputable pollsters, those who have largely made accurate predictions in recent election cycles, trend towards a Harris win.
  • The Trump campaign has had a horrible last 10 days, there's no getting around it. Hispanic and black voters are flocking back to Harris. And women will put her over the top.
I'm hopeful. Bullish Harris assessments predicts well over 300 electoral votes when all is said and done...
 
is there anyone in or connected to the UFC not a republican?
 


This is their closing argument btw.

If America vote for this shit then they've never cared about inflation or the border, as we've been told.
 
What time in the UK is it likely the result will be known? I'm assuming the middle of the night?

I hope to raise a glass to a Harris victory but have a sinking feeling that the Republicans will be the ones doing that, which is incredibly sad given how much Trump has unraveled in recent weeks, which is saying something as he was a lunatic before anyway.
 
Mike Smalling said:
I would say it is naive. It's not in his nature to admit defeat. His way of admitting defeat would be to not encourage insurrection and not run a whole lot of lawsuits.
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Yeah, that's the thing. He wouldn't want more legal issues.
 
ChrisNelson said:
What time in the UK is it likely the result will be known? I'm assuming the middle of the night?

I hope to raise a glass to a Harris victory but have a sinking feeling that the Republicans will be the ones doing that, which is incredibly sad given how much Trump has unraveled in recent weeks, which is saying something as he was a lunatic before anyway.
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They won’t be known today and probably not tomorrow either. We may know directional sense but most of the battleground states will take a couple of days to call results.
 
ChrisNelson said:
What time in the UK is it likely the result will be known? I'm assuming the middle of the night?

I hope to raise a glass to a Harris victory but have a sinking feeling that the Republicans will be the ones doing that, which is incredibly sad given how much Trump has unraveled in recent weeks, which is saying something as he was a lunatic before anyway.
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4 years ago it took a few days. But hopfully EU will know very early in the morning this time around
 
mariachi-19 said:
I think we’re in for a surprise at how many registered republicans vote for Harris.

There’s too much noise
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Not so sure about that, but i expect independents to break for Harris quite heavily, MAGA is toxic to most people.
 
RedSky said:
Please dont feck up today America. Not Trump, please.
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We’re decent people, and I remain optimistic. I didn’t fall in despair in October (ignored bad and good polls alike).

But, don’t count on us to do the right thing, especially when it comes to Trump. Just don’t count on us.

Trump infiltrated deep and deeper in our society, no matter what he says or does. There is always a “reason” to vote for him. I know people who voted for him in 2020 “because of the Supreme Court” even though it was already 6-3 for the conservatives.” He’s bad, but I’m voting for him because of…” time and again.

Hillary Clinton was this and that.

Joe Biden is old and establishment.

Kamala Harris doesn’t have the experience (as if Trump did in 2016) and bad at TV interviews.

People who don’t “really like him” but when the garage door opens, you see a big TRUMP flag. Or the flag is somewhere else in their homes. I have no flags for Harris, Biden, Clinton or even small yard signs.

I live in a 2-1 blue state. Yesterday, I picked my kids from school. Right away, they told me that “no school tomorrow”. Then, “daddy, X is voting for Trump” (X is a kid), “Y is going to do this and that to Harris” (Y is a kid). Kids bring this from home.

I know the parents of X relatively well. We socialized numerous times, including this past month.

Trumpism is very deep in the U.S. society. Trump can win today, just like he can lose. We are no longer the country that existed before June 2015.
 
ManUtd1999 said:
We’re decent people, and I remain optimistic. I didn’t fall in despair in October (ignored bad and good polls alike).

But, don’t count on us to do the right thing, especially when it comes to Trump. Just don’t count on us.

Trump infiltrated deep and deeper in our society, no matter what he says or does. There is always a “reason” to vote for him. I know people who voted for him in 2020 “because of the Supreme Court” even though it was already 6-3 for the conservatives.” He’s bad, but I’m voting for him because of…” time and again.

Hillary Clinton was this and that.

Joe Biden is old and establishment.

Kamala Harris doesn’t have the experience (as if Trump did in 2016) and bad at TV interviews.

People who don’t “really like him” but when the garage door opens, you see a big TRUMP flag. Or the flag is somewhere else in their homes. I have no flags for Harris, Biden, Clinton or even small yard signs.

I live in a 2-1 blue state. Yesterday, I picked my kids from school. Right away, they told me that “no school tomorrow”. Then, “daddy, X is voting for Trump” (X is a kid), “Y is going to do this and that to Harris” (Y is a kid). Kids bring this from home.

I know the parents of X relatively well. We socialized numerous times, including this past month.

Trumpism is very deep in the U.S. society. Trump can win today, just like he can lose. We are no longer the country that existed before June 2015.
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I think in general I just feel sad for you that your political system is so fecked that you are left with options that basically amount to Trump or not Trump. A 2 party option is not how democracy should be. It’s quite clear the Dems are shit too but unfortunately they’re just less shit than the GOP and Trump so you have to vote for them.
 
Why such a disparity with polls (such as the above) and betting odds? Trump generally 4/6 or so on?

Is it just a perceived ‘better value’ if he’s projected as underdog, or a lack of belief/accuracy in polls?
 
InfiniteBoredom said:
Clear outlier. That’s not Selzer +3 Iowa territory, that’s Alabama turning blue territory.
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I don’t think we’re going to see Alabama go blue! But, I am optimistic that this is going to be a much bigger Harris victory than people expect. Bring on the blue wave!
 
JB08 said:
Why such a disparity with polls (such as the above) and betting odds? Trump generally 4/6 or so on?

Is it just a perceived ‘better value’ if he’s projected as underdog, or a lack of belief/accuracy in polls?
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A lot of money has gone down on Trump skewing the markets.
 
feck me it was hard falling asleep. The fate of the world depends on a few million of us and who they vote for.
 
Catt said:
This!

What do we think?
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I'd like to think there are enough voters that Trump has insulted and pissed off along with the level headed voters to make this a non contest.

But, it's also pretty clear to me that if the Dems had picked a male this would be an easy victory. Hope she manages to drag it over the line, will be a positive step for America to have a female President. She also strikes me as someone who isn't going to be too extreme. She'll just be bland like Biden was and be fairly central leaning which is exactly what America and the World needs right now.
 
RedSky said:
I'd like to think there are enough voters that Trump has insulted and pissed off along with the level headed voters to make this a non contest.

But, it's also pretty clear to me that if the Dems had picked a male this would be an easy victory. Hope she manages to drag it over the line, will be a positive step for America to have a female President. She also strikes me as someone who isn't going to be too extreme. She'll just be bland like Biden was and be fairly central leaning which is exactly what America and the World needs right now.
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I think you’re underestimating the Trump base. It doesn’t matter what he says or does. I still think he is the favorite and it’s only a surprise if Harris wins.
 
Massive Spanner said:
I think in general I just feel sad for you that your political system is so fecked that you are left with options that basically amount to Trump or not Trump. A 2 party option is not how democracy should be. It’s quite clear the Dems are shit too but unfortunately they’re just less shit than the GOP and Trump so you have to vote for them.
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The two party system is a major problem. We know that and we knew that for a while now.

But Trump/Trumpism is another problem. Why would a seemingly decent person, who socializes with whites, blacks, other minorities, natives and immigrants, etc. be such a big fan of Trump despite all the hate that Trump shows against some of these groups? Why would you be with these people that Trump wants to throw away of the country? At least be consistent.

As for the NH poll: she won’t win that state by more than 15. If she wins NH by 15, she will win pretty much all swing states and possibly Iowa.
 
JB08 said:
Why such a disparity with polls (such as the above) and betting odds? Trump generally 4/6 or so on?

Is it just a perceived ‘better value’ if he’s projected as underdog, or a lack of belief/accuracy in polls?
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The value is represented by the odds, so it's not that. It either represents the true belief of those who put money in, or wanting to influence the odds (wasting money).

Currently election betting markets are pretty small, so even one person going in with a pretty big sum can influence the odds by a noticeable amount. The market isn't in the same league as sports betting, which makes it easier to make money on but less useful if the goal is to learn what people think the result will be.
 
The day has finally dawned, may your God help us all
 
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