He's going to win isn't he 
2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed
- Thread starter Raoul
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Soo...no Democrats participated in that. Four Republicans and 2 undeclared voters. According to Twitter.
One of the biggest evidence in favor of polls not underestimating Trump this time is the Republican primary. He consistently underperformed his polls there, the opposite of 2016 when pollsters were trying to handwave away his very robust numbers and he matched or beat them.
There’s also the fact that Harris has consistently done better in RV numbers vs LV, where pollsters applied a very harsh turnout scenario for her because they are shitscared of getting it wrong in favour of Dems again, and even her own campaign according to Plouffe use the same approach with their internals.
And to top it off, Trump is really deeply unpopular. He’s never breached 48% of the national vote. Surveys after surveys show 52-53% of the RVs saying they will never vote for him, so while he’s still competitive in the swing states with that number and can absolutely win, there’s really nothing to suggest that he’s gotten over that particular hump.
We will find out in under 24 hours anyway.
There’s also the fact that Harris has consistently done better in RV numbers vs LV, where pollsters applied a very harsh turnout scenario for her because they are shitscared of getting it wrong in favour of Dems again, and even her own campaign according to Plouffe use the same approach with their internals.
And to top it off, Trump is really deeply unpopular. He’s never breached 48% of the national vote. Surveys after surveys show 52-53% of the RVs saying they will never vote for him, so while he’s still competitive in the swing states with that number and can absolutely win, there’s really nothing to suggest that he’s gotten over that particular hump.
We will find out in under 24 hours anyway.
Key word there to show what you really think.
Also a thanks to all the caftards that have contributed on here through the past few years. Been a surprisingly nuanced, reliable source of news and viewpoints. Hopefully there's a reason for future US election threads 
No. It’s a quirky tiny township in NH, they have a tradition of voting at midnight of the Election Day, and get to be the first votes announced in the nation. Result is announced after everybody finish voting.
In 2016 it was 4 Clinton, 2 Trump, 1 third party and some madlad writing in Mitt Romney. In 2020 there were 6 total, 1 abstained, 5 went Biden.
I was joking but looking at the reaction it sets off a lot of dooming in here.
It’s 6 votes in a little hick town, it doesn’t mean anything.
I thought they were some kind of districts or something, not literally 6 people
When it comes to the economy, objective data doesn't matter that much in an election. Most people aren't economists and they don't care about hard data - what matters is how they feel about the economy. If they feel the cost of living is too high, that wages haven't caught up to inflation, that they can't afford things that they used to, they'll say the economy is bad and no amount of data will change their minds.
Understandable too as that is what actually matters.
He's going to win isn't he
I was shocked the first time but this will be a bigger shock for me because it did seem that a fair few of his fans turned on him over the years.
Suddenly much less confident now that the big day is here
Preparing for the worst!
Preparing for the worst!
Nah.He's going to win isn't he
Not a great sample but everyone I've spoken to in the last 2 days in Philly is voting for Trump.
Oh my word, Trump is so orange on the BBC homepage picture
Maybe you need new friends
I have no friends.
So Musk’s $1m lottery isn’t selected at random, but is of course still allowed to go on?
Broken democracy.
Broken democracy.
There are good people on both sides, you know
Really curious post-election how different demographics have voted. Puerto Rican-Americans, Ukrainian-Americans, Muslim Americans etc.
It's allowed to go on because it isn't an actual lottery if I remember correctly.
BBC polling reporting has Trump winning 4 out of the 7 swing states with 1 tied, doesn't bode well.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czxrnw5qrprt?post=asset:658ab213-10a3-458c-9bc4-8943209ffea9#post
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czxrnw5qrprt?post=asset:658ab213-10a3-458c-9bc4-8943209ffea9#post
I've spoken to 100 people yesterday and none of em are voting in the election.
Weird trend.
Weird trend.
This is just the 538 average, no new information.
There's been a huge issue with polling because there's loads of shit right wing pollsters tossing out poll after poll showing Trump winning and the media treat them as legitimate as other more respected polling companies. I personally think it's a coordinated effort by Trump to make it look like he's winning so that when he loses he can claim " but the polls said i was winning" and use that as his excuse for legal action.
The guy who runs 538 has even admitted it's a problem.
The poster just compared rape & sexual abuse to a someone doing a bad interview!
It’s obvious sarcasm. Although not that far from other posters that are being serious.
That’s probably right. And even in their own perspective people are not necessarily capable of accurately assessing whether in fact they have become ‘poorer’ by affordability standards or not. They typically take note of price hikes way before they notice salary increases.
It's a sign of where I'm at that this has thoroughly shaken me
I think large swathes of the US are currently in teh first half of the 'f*ck around and find out' stage with democracy. That's where we've arrived. If Trump wins, it will be because enough people believe: the system doesn't work for ME, therefore I don't need the system. It's a sentiment that has happened countless times in history. It's very much Bannon's idea: we'll burn it all down.
The problem is these people aren't steeped in said history. It is infinitely harder to build something than it is to break it. And for me American democracy is something that needs fixing, not destroying. As many on here have posted, there are very tangible things that could be done to do just that, and restore power away from the ultra-rich and corporate interests.
Instead, people are going to vote for the same party that broke everything in the first place. A party that is now without ideas of how to govern, no policies to speak of and built on the lies and bravado of a man that can barely string a sentence together.
The absolute BEST scenario of a second Trump term is that he fails to do anything he's talked about. Mass deportations, enormous tariffs, ending Nato. Those policies aren't evne popular amonst the people voting for him.
It all melts my brain. I'm split between desperately wanting to understand and help these people see that blowing it up is the wrong option, and saying you know what f*ck you idiots, see if you like the finding out.
From an outsider looking in, Trump himself doesn’t seem so much the problem as the people he can potentially empower and surround himself with. He himself is an idiot, and there are checks and balances in place to limit the damage he can do, but there are a lot of people working in the background on his side who are not idiots.
I do not for one second think the likes of Musk and his ilk are backing trump without having some nefarious motives in mind should trump come to power.
Now as always, the big question that hangs in the air is “how much can life actually change for the average person on the street if trump wins” and that is a difficult question to answer.
ETH, LVG and Weghorst don’t count mate
How has nobody suggested at least making his neck and ears match the tone of his face?
One upside to a potential Trump win, is that the US will have elected another person of color.
They say neck and neck but there’s only one in that picture.
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