2024 U.S. Elections | Thread Closed
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This is not 2016, Harris is not running double digits negatives, which is basically where Trump is at, where Hillary was at in 2016.
Voter enthusiasm for republicans is down, up for democrats, opposed to 2016.
Avram
Another reason not to watch football.
And more incredible part about people voting for Trump is that some are highly intelligent folks in their respective fields.
To no one's surprise, Joe Rogan just endorsed Trump.
Peak desperation for Trump’s team to coax it out of Rogan the night before an election. Probably also has Dana White’s fingerprints all over it.
Avram
Avram on the right side of history
Who the hell is edward glazer? Is he one of the ones who gets money from United but has never been involved?
By all metrics our economy is doing extremely well. What is so awful about the democrats?
That NBC firing really broke her.
Why was she fired again?
I assume once you see "Not their biggest fan, far from it, but" then the post is meant to be a joke post since that is a well accepted caf meme
How so?
For defending black face Halloween costumes.
Old people have always died and been replaced with a younger? Really?
The boomer age range is currently 60-78. More and more of this generation are dying off each 4 year election cycle, so this will hurt Trump more now that previously - as well as Republican in the future. As mentioned previously, this generation favoured Republicans, largely because the US had Republican presidents for much of the boomers prime years - 70s, 80s and into the early 90s.
I agree - the older generation are a far more reliable voting block than the youth. But my point was that those who are reaching around 55 today, Gen X (who are replacing the boomers as the most likely to vote) would have come of "Political age" around the good times of Clinton and will very much remember being taken into wars and recessions by the Bush's. That makes Gen X more likley to vote Dem than the boomers were previously.
Most people just assume that one you get to a certain age, the voting block becomes more conservative, but that changes over time, depending on long held views. We know that the vast majority of people don't switch affiliation.
I think his point is very valid. 20mil boomers replaced with 40mil Gen Z. To which party those age groups lean, it undeniable...
Yes, as you say, they are harder to turn out, but replacing 20mil boomers with 40mil Gen Z gives the Democrats a massive potential advantage, in this election and going forward.
Agree re naturalized citizens. Although, we may see in this election more more Hispanics vote Republican then in previous years. Hispanic adults made up 34% of immigrant eligible voters.
A lot of the demographics are favoring Democrats, perhaps enough soon that we will see more policy changes from the GOP to capture them.
Going to sleep with a dream: seeing Trump and Cruz losing tomorrow (or later this week).
What i have enjoyed about this thread over the last couple of years, is the quality of posts and posters. By and large, there has been good debate, loads of good points made and interesting insight.
It would seem though at we get close, the muppets comes out!
No issue with anyone supporting Trump, but the reasoning here is, as Kill Tony said, "A floating pile of garbage!"
But hey, at least this thread isn’t a complete echo chamber!
Indeed. Id love to assume they are just trolling but at the same time we live in a time where they could be dead serious.
I think that Trump campaign fecked it up big time the last 2 weeks and he is in his lower point and he has not been more vulnerable. Would be enough? I don't know. If polls corrected or even over corrected their methodology and there are more right wing polls that balances out like @Morty_ and other had been saying, Harris has the momentum and the final lead in PA, WI and MI which grant her victory but so tiny margins!
If polls are like in the past, Harris is for a loss in every swing state. I think that unfortunately, using rationality, Trump will be the next POTUS, using my gut, I think is Harris. I was right in 2016 and 2020 with gut, so though I like always reference numbers on "why", I think I will pick Harris, maybe wishful thinking, maybe because the MSG, maybe because the caf sees so clearly that this is the final trend, but I think is Harris
If polls are like in the past, Harris is for a loss in every swing state. I think that unfortunately, using rationality, Trump will be the next POTUS, using my gut, I think is Harris. I was right in 2016 and 2020 with gut, so though I like always reference numbers on "why", I think I will pick Harris, maybe wishful thinking, maybe because the MSG, maybe because the caf sees so clearly that this is the final trend, but I think is Harris
It’s the hope that kills ya, so I’m going to expect a Trump win until Harris gets the delegates she needs.
This is pretty fecking stunning. Don't think we've ever had leaks like this a day before the election from any campaign, certainly not a winning one.
Edit: Edited out Wibble's deleted post. Damn you Diarm for writing a mildly satirical post that was highly believable in comparison to the MAGA nutbaggery that we have got used to.
If you look at diarm’s history in this thread it’s pretty clear he was joking, but obviously it’s hard to make it ludicrous enough to separate it from the real deal.
If you look at diarm’s history in this thread it’s pretty clear he was joking, but obviously it’s hard to make it ludicrous enough to separate it from the real deal.
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Thank feck for that.
A good list of why I've predicted a landslide, besides the last one
If Trump loses, it is his own fault. He could do a 30 mins rally, stay on message, then fly to the next stop. Instead, he drones on for 2 hours and cant help put his foot in his mouth, which he seems to think helps him.
In the last 10 days, as more people have tuned in, he has reminded voters why he left office with a 34% approval rating and had a record low average of 41% over his four years. Unless you are a die hard Republican or a full on MAGA, you are sick to the back teeth of him.
To be honest, is the most rational that I ever seen him ever. Not that his baseline is much though
They unleashed all the nastiness now when they needed to be measured as like you said everybody was watching and deciding last minute who to vote or if going to vote because they were not energized. They energized the anti trumpism that voted Biden as POTUS
No, then he wouldn't be Trump. A large section of the people like him because he is this gormless fecktard who does and says what he wants. They somehow find that feckwittery authentic, original and charming. If he did what every run of the mill politician does then he wouldn't be half as popular amongst the rubes.
The first reported votes are in.
Dixville Notch, New Hampshire
Harris 3-3 Trump
Biden got 5-0 in 2020.
Red wave incoming.
Dixville Notch, New Hampshire
Harris 3-3 Trump
Biden got 5-0 in 2020.
Red wave incoming.
Yeah but they all start leaving.
Weirdest conflation ever! But I guess you gotta justify yourself somehow.
Hanging out with pedo Gaetz to write his speeches. Brilliant. Is that investigation against Matt still going on?
So it’s the day of the gender reveal. Let’s hope it’s a girl!
I kinda want to see what happens with a 60% tariff on Chinese imports though.
Cheeky vote for Donald, for teh lulz?
Cheeky vote for Donald, for teh lulz?
I think it's important to reiterate, that the numbers by themselves, accounting for the 3 point margin of error, point towards a toss up election. Anyone can win. Trump is slightly ahead in some polls, and while lots of media sources and "experts" are convinced he will win, it's so miniscule that it doesn't really matter with a 3 point margin of error. Anyone who claims they can predict this election is either lying, lacks knowledge to see their own errors or are grossly overestimating their own abilities.
That said, there are a number of wild cards here too. If De Moines register poll is right about Iowa, it shows that the methodology behind the polls probably lean heavily Republican. If Harris is genuinely 3 points up in a state most polls show her down by 8, a lot of polls could simply be wrong. A methodology error of 5-10 points would be massive, as that puts a lot of states within reach for Harris within the margin of error.
There is also a chance that it is a landslide Trump victory, as polls generally have underestimated his support in the past. Pollsters did try to remedy that though, and the amount of garbage GOP bought polls out there suggests that is less likely. He can still get a landslide within the margin of error as the numbers currently are, with an 86 EC advantage being within margin of error.
Trump had a lot of support with factions of Arab Americans and Latino Americans that seem to have evaporated after his MSG event - or maybe that's just an illusion. How that all plays out will be crucial too.
It could also come down to how many times Swift and other celebreties posts about voting on election day - which is absurd in itself, but that's how close the election is. This could end up from anywhere between a 2 - 200 EC advantage, it's a complete unknown at this point.
We are in for a wild couple of days.
It's a sign of where I'm at that this has thoroughly shaken me
I think large swathes of the US are currently in teh first half of the 'f*ck around and find out' stage with democracy. That's where we've arrived. If Trump wins, it will be because enough people believe: the system doesn't work for ME, therefore I don't need the system. It's a sentiment that has happened countless times in history. It's very much Bannon's idea: we'll burn it all down.
The problem is these people aren't steeped in said history. It is infinitely harder to build something than it is to break it. And for me American democracy is something that needs fixing, not destroying. As many on here have posted, there are very tangible things that could be done to do just that, and restore power away from the ultra-rich and corporate interests.
Instead, people are going to vote for the same party that broke everything in the first place. A party that is now without ideas of how to govern, no policies to speak of and built on the lies and bravado of a man that can barely string a sentence together.
The absolute BEST scenario of a second Trump term is that he fails to do anything he's talked about. Mass deportations, enormous tariffs, ending Nato. Those policies aren't evne popular amonst the people voting for him.
It all melts my brain. I'm split between desperately wanting to understand and help these people see that blowing it up is the wrong option, and saying you know what f*ck you idiots, see if you like the finding out.
Reported votes whilst polls are open?
And is that genuinely the outcome from what’s been released?
Sad times if so.
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